Shawn Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Larry, your inbox on here is full and I can't get you a message. To add weather input; I made a map based off the 12z Euro using a blend of the 850 & 2m temps and it looks nothing at all like the messed up snowfall maps. I'd post it here; but it uses pay images. Either way, the threat of ZR is very real on the 12z Euro.. Through GSP, Central NC (even CLT), Atlanta, Lots of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We have been fortunate to have the -WPO to set up all the Arctic highs over land to supply much colder Air. That coupled with the +TNH pattern making the pattern wash, rinse and repeat. What I think has finally shifted the orientation of the trough is the MJO getting into a favorable phase of 7 and eventually 8, 1 and 2. Is the MJO a factor? A few days ago, it looked like some models had it going into Phase 6 and others had it going into Phase 7 before heading back into the COD. Now, it looks like most guidances keeps it in or near the COD. I haven't seen anything take a strong wave through Phases 1-8. I was just looking at the diagram on the CPC site, so I may not be looking at the same data you are, though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Taking the 18z GFS as face value would be a all rain event near or at the end of the event. Euro is different, though, and the GFS had to play catch up to the Euro with the event earlier this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ok. If it really isn't a snow storm like the Euro shows, is there still an ice threat? Shouldn't we be looking at that? Well, the Euro does seem to show a fairly significant snow event (2-6") for some of us before the switchover to a catastrophic ice storm. It's kind of reminiscent of December 2002 in that regard. This sort of setup can yield a front end thump of snow before the changeover to sleet and/or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Is there any chance that the system for early next week trends a little farther south? Based off the 00z nam the northern foothills and some NC/VA counties could get something out of it if it was just a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well, the Euro does seem to show a fairly significant snow event (2-6") for some of us before the switchover to a catastrophic ice storm. It's kind of reminiscent of December 2002 in that regard. This sort of setup can yield a front end thump of snow before the changeover to sleet and/or freezing rain. We should get back ontrack and talk about that. It might not be snow like the Euro shows, but it does look like a big storm on the Euro that should be followed. And it could always change and get colder for snow, since that seems what evveryone is focused on. And if some folks do get snow with ice on top that is going to be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We should get back ontrack and talk about that. It might not be snow like the Euro shows, but it does look like a big storm on the Euro that should be followed. And it could always change and get colder for snow, since that seems what evveryone is focused on. And if some folks do get snow with ice on top that is going to be a mess. The euro does have it cold enough for all winter precip, We will see what happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 larry who is gvl and who is gsp. I am in greenville and gsp is the airport here. I assume gvl, greenville nc? and gsp greenville spartanburg. may be talking about gainesville ga, in strong cads (like the one being discussed....actually anything over about 1040 is strong for this area to get in on the action usually) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lookout's buddy GB just tweeted 10 minutes ago that the latest EURO is sunny and 50° at hour 222. He included a pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 thanks guys.....\not that I am happy about being "creamed" lol - well that infamous LC storm that has been mentioned was wild and a similar set up. got stronger as we approached. ne ga did get creamed. and went through gainesville towards i think gwinnet. didnt have a smart phone then. no power for about 3 days here (so no internet either ugh haha). i would rather not have all the trees come down again, but have to say that was one heck of an ice storm, probably one of the top 3 i had seen (i am in my 40s so have seen a few lol) larry - no worries here granted would probably rather not have an inch or more of ice, but i dont mind ice storms (as long as you make sure you keep them at or under .50" haha). i am in the weird "anything falling frozen in winter" beats rain group haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So we have one biggie showing a possible snow/ice storm, another wants to be close. We have bogus maps showing 4 inches in Atlanta. Folks are seeing those maps. Well, when they get two inches of ice they might be paying a bit more attention. And if it's 2 inches of rain, or nothing, they'll see the fun of predicting winter weather in the south. They will learn that models mesmerizer, and seduce, and can't always be trusted. If they are paying attention. I'd hate to have to ride the potential for then next month as a met/ or city planner Of course, the businessmen are happy to hear it will be warm. While the populous goes rumor crazy, lol. Man, I love this winter!! Human drama, and weather. A heady mix. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 let the public experience the sheer joy and then deep despair as the models change from run to run lol. CAD ice storms here can, and quite a few times have, started with a pretty good burst of snow then a lot of ice (its not too bad, keeps the snow around lol). i remember a few times a while back that dogs could walk on the ice and not break through to the snow underneath. wild. i know "overdue" isnt scientific, but i have seen a few others in the cad areas say that and it is true. until the dec 05 one we would average usually a couple a year with less than .25 and maybe one every year every other year .25 or a little more. not complaining of all the snow since then, of course, but statistically we probably are due for one. and with this years set up (monster strong arctic highs moving in and juicy storms moving across) i wouldnt be surprised if someone does get a lot of ice. the last couple of years have had moist storms but just not the cold air. so its only a matter of time before things hook up right and BAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So we have one biggie showing a possible snow/ice storm, another wants to be close. We have bogus maps showing 4 inches in Atlanta. Folks are seeing those maps. Well, when they get two inches of ice they might be paying a bit more attention. And if it's 2 inches of rain, or nothing, they'll see the fun of predicting winter weather in the south. They will learn that models mesmerizer, and seduce, and can't always be trusted. If they are paying attention. I'd hate to have to ride the potential for then next month as a met/ or city planner Of course, the businessmen are happy to hear it will be warm. While the populous goes rumor crazy, lol. Man, I love this winter!! Human drama, and weather. A heady mix. T Social media like Twitter and Facebook are becomming more and more of a breeding ground for misinformation every day. Although some good info can be found; those outside the weather watching world don't understand that. There's already panic going on in ATL for the chance of snow.. yet they are really under the gun for a possible ZR which would be much worse. I can't imagine what would happen to ATL if they got .50+ QPF as ice with the crazy stuff that just happened down there the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanNation623 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lots of Mets seem to think that February will be a significant month for winter weather in the south. I'm excited to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lookout's buddy GB just tweeted 10 minutes ago that the latest EURO is sunny and 50° at hour 222. He included a pic. The euro is not out yet. i can assure you that the 12z euro shows winter precip for the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Was there any pbp for the 0z gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Social media like Twitter and Facebook are becomming more and more of a breeding ground for misinformation every day. Although some good info can be found; those outside the weather watching world don't understand that. There's already panic going on in ATL for the chance of snow.. yet they are really under the gun for a possible ZR which would be much worse. I can't imagine what would happen to ATL if they got .50+ QPF as ice with the crazy stuff that just happened down there the other day. Shawn, I can only hope the chance of snow will alert them that something might happen. A really bad ice storm in the city now will be like a stick of dyno in a barrel. Power poles down and sparking on every street, ten trees down every square block. It's unbelievable...and now it's amplified by all the new people. And none of them have chainsaws. If I was living back up there again, I have two good saws, a good generator, lots of canned goods, water, and a way to heat it all up, and lots of candles, and lanterns. In 73 my family took care of themselves with a sterno stove, and a fire place for over a week And folks in Apts. were in a terrible way. Stores empty as far as you could walk..when the power lines quit snapping. I'll watch with interest how Atl handles something like that without any preparation of the masses whatsoever. Not even the occasional reminder of what can happen. But I keep forgetting, it'll probably be warm. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The euro is not out yet. i can assure you that the 12z euro shows winter precip for the southeast. Here is what he tweeted: @BradNitzWSB The new GFS model is till coming in but the European shows clear with 50s. pic.twitter.com/eq9iREZPIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 @189, right before truncation, you can tell the 0z gfs has a huge storm. My only concern is what is going to stop it from cutting inland? Edit: Yep it was a lakes cutter. You could tell on the 5h that this would never make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 @189, right before truncation, you can tell the 0z gfs has a huge storm. My only concern is what is going to stop it from cutting inland? Edit: Yep it was a lakes cutter. You could tell on the 5h that this would never make it. Yeah, the high is 3Mbs weaker and there is no 50/50. Suppression will be difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 OUTCH. well see what the ensembles say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is such a huge shift in the GFS that I do not really buy it. We are in a very difficult pattern for the models right now. I still think a lakes cutter is a lower chance scenario based on earlier ensemble data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Aren't ice storms in Feb in Atlanta extremely rare ? It seems like almost all of Atlantas ice storms are in Dec or Jan. Can't remember the last time there was a feb ice storm in atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 @189, right before truncation, you can tell the 0z gfs has a huge storm. My only concern is what is going to stop it from cutting inland? Edit: Yep it was a lakes cutter. You could tell on the 5h that this would never make it. Can't be a lake cutter with the HP overhead. Only after truncation does it decide to suddenly pull the HP out and shove it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is such a huge shift in the GFS that I do not really buy it. We are in a very difficult pattern for the models right now. I still think a lakes cutter is a lower chance scenario based on earlier ensemble data. I agree Cheez...At this point what I take away from the 0z gfs is the storm is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Can't be a lake cutter with the HP overhead. Only after truncation does it decide to suddenly pull the HP out and shove it north. Pretty much this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 PV is too far north and the cold is not penetrating like it needs to. I expected this at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here is what he tweeted: @BradNitzWSB The new GFS model is till coming in but the European shows clear with 50s. pic.twitter.com/eq9iREZPIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That run was an absolute mess. Not buying the GFS either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks to me a little more of a timing issue. The storm has slowed down which allows the hp to slide off. Just a novice though. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.