GaWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You beat me to it Larry. That will be the real deal mother load of arctic air if it is anywhere close to reality. The bulk of it misses the SE. It hits mainly the C & N Plains, Midwest, and New England. Too much -PNA. The SE US remains near normal for the 11-15 day period overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yes, I went back and looked at the details from this event. The upper level low is what caused the snow, not the surface front. I am trying to remember a situation when a surface front produced snow east of the mountains, and I can not remember a case at the moment. A couple of examples like QueenCity was talking about would be Jan 20, 1985 and Jan 8, 2011. The way that normally happens is that you have an initial polar front that brings in the cold air...then you have a PV lobe that drops down into the Great Lakes which drags in a reinforcing arctic boundary that can stir up light snow showers east of the mountains. There's usually some elongated upper level energy associated with the boundary, so it's kind of a combo of reinforcing arctic cold front / sfc trough / upper level impulse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 A couple of examples like QueenCity was talking about would be Jan 20, 1985 and Jan 8, 2011. The way that normally happens is that you have an initial polar front that brings in the cold air...then you have a PV lobe that drops down into the Great Lakes which drags in a reinforcing arctic boundary that can stir up light snow showers east of the mountains. There's usually some elongated upper level energy associated with the boundary, so it's kind of a combo of reinforcing arctic cold front / sfc trough / upper level impulse.That's exactly what I was thinking. If you're close enough to the mountains, you always run the chance of SNSH breaking containment too.Also, to button up my mention of temps this weekend, it also looks very cold on Saturday. GFS would imply a high around freezing that day too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 At least it would seem that the GFS is coming around to a colder LR pattern. Slowly but surely...... Near the end of the run it shows the trough going negative in the east. That's a look that we haven't seen in quite a while. Let's hope it is getting a better feel for what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I really have enjoyed following this weather forum the last few years even back in the eastern days. I have learned a great deal from some of the mets and skilled posters on here. However, I am beginning to think this forum has been taken over by teenage girls. The whining over the lack of snow is overwhelming the conversation. I picture guys like Brick throwing temper tantrums with each undesirable model run. The depression and negativity on here is amazing. November was about 2 degrees below normal IMBY. December will end up above, but we have had some cold weather. Neither the warm or the cold in the LR models have verified as strong as shown. What is even better is the rain. I live about 30 miles south of Atlanta which will record it's 5th wettest year ever! For an area that is always worried about the next drought, that is huge! With the amount of cold air to the north and southern stream moisture that has been consistently in picture, I can't help but remain optimistic. I also find it laughable how folks speak with confidence about what is or is not going to happen in the next 10 days or 2 weeks. As of Christmas day, we were expecting no rain for this weekend. How did that turn out? This winter is ripe for surprises. If you want to whine and complain, why not do it on the MA forum where that type of conversation is commonplace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Where do you see that? You're near Rock Hill right? I see low to mid 40s for that area, and I'll be completely shocked if it stays in the low 30s there on Friday. 00z GFS output for Charlotte has aftn highs of 31 on Friday and 38 on Sat. 00z Canadian looks similar. Who knows if they are right, but that's what they are showing from the 00z runs. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kclt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 0Z Euro has that monster high and extremely cold 850's that are aiming a little east of the Sun 12Z Euro run and well east of the 0Z GFS run as of hour 168. Let's see how it turns out. -40ish 850's into NDMN hour 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Keep it coming. Well it's pretty impressive. Very cold air coming out of Canada at hour 192. Looks like the EURO wants to put the East in the freezer box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Keep it coming. Hour 204 (1/7 7 AM): -20 at Chicago; 0 at Nashville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 00z GFS output for Charlotte has aftn highs of 31 on Friday and 38 on Sat. 00z Canadian looks similar. Who knows if they are right, but that's what they are showing from the 00z runs. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kclt Euro has aftn highs of 35 & 38 Fri / Sat for Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hour 204 (1/7 7 AM): -20 at Chicago; 0 at Nashville! 0Z Euro continued: Extremely low latitude miller A forming hour 216 (Jan 8 at 0Z) Edit: Gulf system so suppressed that precip. never makes it above Daytona Beach. Cold rain central FL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Classic looking major arctic outbreak on Euro with ridging north of Alaska and strong PV lobe dropping into the northern Great Lakes...but the cold doesn't penetrate into the deep south / gulf, and it's fairly transient for such a cold air mass. Will verify 1/2 as cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I know you guys are focused on finding cold/snow/etc, but keep an eye on the rain event later this week (Wednesday night/Thursday) in Alabama/Georgia/Florida. The trend has been for the models to show rain in Florida and dry in Georgia and Alabama then shift it northwest in subsequent runs. That's why some were "surprised" by this past weekend's rain. Actually, the EURO has had this rain chances for a little while and FFC has been good about keeping rain chances in the forecast even when a lot of other models were pushing the rain south. Enjoy the cold shot Friday! On another note, I feel like I'm in Seattle! We haven't seen abundant sunshine in the middle of the afternoon in quite some time and it's rained every weekend of December... Where's my sunshine!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Classic looking major arctic outbreak on Euro with ridging north of Alaska and strong PV lobe dropping into the northern Great Lakes...but the cold doesn't penetrate into the deep south / gulf, and it's fairly transient for such a cold air mass. Will verify 1/2 as cold? I was thinking along the same lines; has a model predicting a major cold outbreak ever verified even close to the predicted lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Gets too cold and we will get nothing at all. Nothing but cold and dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yep go figure, rain Thursday, too warm to snow then look at the temps behind the rain plenty cold but the moisture is gone, you would think the timing would get together sometime. I've live in the deep south for about 25 years. That's the way it works. Where I live, cold and snow get together for something meaningful once every couple years. Sometimes, not that often. The weather is fun for me to follow, but if I am expecting winter storms very often, I am going to be unhappy way too often. I don't want to be unhappy, so I do my best to enjoy the weather. It's the only weather you've got! I still maintain that with rain constantly showing up and very cold air to our north, the players needed are close enough to make it happen at some point. Models are not going to see anything correctly more than 2 or 3 days in advance right now. This is not a bad pattern for the deep south. I have seen better patterns maybe 5 or 6 times in 25 years and not all of them produced snow for me.I have seen too many winters where neither the cold or the precip are anywhere to be found for most of the winter. I will take the hand we are being dealt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Indices not looking great. I'm really admazed at the cold we've been able to get with such a bad pattern. We should feel lucky to at least have some cold air. I would think it could easily be tourching right now. PNA - After a short positve period it looks solidly negative in the LR NAO - After a neutral period it looks solidly positve in the LR AO - After going solidly negative it looks to go neutral or positve in LR LR looks real bad right now. **but maybe tomorrow it will look good again; which begs the question are these really useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Indices not looking great. I'm really admazed at the cold we've been able to get with such a bad pattern. We should feel lucky to at least have some cold air. I would think it could easily be tourching right now. PNA - After a short positve period it looks solidly negative in the LR NAO - After a neutral period it looks solidly positve in the LR AO - After going solidly negative it looks to go neutral or positve in LR LR looks real bad right now. **but maybe tomorrow it will look good again; which begs the question are these really useful. Right know the Pacific is driving this pattern which is the EPO and the WPO. We can get away with a bad Atlantic pattern right know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Indices not looking great. I'm really admazed at the cold we've been able to get with such a bad pattern. We should feel lucky to at least have some cold air. I would think it could easily be tourching right now. PNA - After a short positve period it looks solidly negative in the LR NAO - After a neutral period it looks solidly positve in the LR AO - After going solidly negative it looks to go neutral or positve in LR LR looks real bad right now. **but maybe tomorrow it will look good again; which begs the question are these really useful. The EPO has been in control this year providing shots of cold air. But yeah, they are useful. They don't really change that much each day. That is basically saying the models are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Gets too cold and we will get nothing at all. Nothing but cold and dry air Personally I've never bought into this because of reason. The pattern has to relax, once it does you usually get a chance. I would rather it be bitter cold and dry with the chance than just plain torching and then relying on perfect timing for everything. Better to make cookies with plenty of sugar than not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Personally I've never bought into this because of reason. The pattern has to relax, once it does you usually get a chance. I would rather it be bitter cold and dry with the chance than just plain torching and then relying on perfect timing for everything. Better to make cookies with plenty of sugar than not enough. I know what you are saying but I am saying if we get too cold it just never seems to snow. We have great virga storms then. I can't tell you how many times I have heard its snowing but not reaching the ground!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Personally I've never bought into this because of reason. The pattern has to relax, once it does you usually get a chance. I would rather it be bitter cold and dry with the chance than just plain torching and then relying on perfect timing for everything. Better to make cookies with plenty of sugar than not enough. Yep, and so far suppression is not a depicted solution that has come true. We've already seen the cold overwhelm the pattern in the LR, only to back off as we get closer to it. Not sure why we'd buy that hook, line, and sinker happening this time. Also, all this OPI business. This is the first year any of us has ever heard of it, I believe (if I'm wrong here, please correct me), yet it's already accepted as infallible. It may be that the AO averages positive the winter, yet we still get a long period of negative values. It may be that it stays positive the whole winter (which we now know won't happen). It may be that it oscillates but averages positive. Whatever the case, none of those outcomes guarantee a warm and wet, warm and dry, cold and dry, or cold and wet winter. With the first month of winter in the books, so far, it looks warm and wet...if you just look at the monthly departures, which don't tell the whole story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I would love to have suppression as an actual issue....but I don't think it's going to be a problem for us this winter. The pattern as we've seen the last 2 months is for all storms and energy to head to the lakes. We've got a -WPO/EPO that delivers lots of cold to Canada and the mid-west, but no mechanism to push the cold down to the southeast. it's been that way since November. Until the pattern actually changes to push the storm track south and the cold south, a snowy pattern is not going to happen IMO. I think we're legitamitely going to need a -NAO/-AO. Until then we're simply in a bad pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yep, and so far suppression is not a depicted solution that has come true. We've already seen the cold overwhelm the pattern in the LR, only to back off as we get closer to it. Not sure why we'd buy that hook, line, and sinker happening this time. Also, all this OPI business. This is the first year any of us has ever heard of it, I believe (if I'm wrong here, please correct me), yet it's already accepted as infallible. It may be that the AO averages positive the winter, yet we still get a long period of negative values. It may be that it stays positive the whole winter (which we now know won't happen). It may be that it oscillates but averages positive. Whatever the case, none of those outcomes guarantee a warm and wet, warm and dry, cold and dry, or cold and wet winter. With the first month of winter in the books, so far, it looks warm and wet...if you just look at the monthly departures, which don't tell the whole story. Let's face it, a -EPO alone won't cut it for us to get snowfall, we will only get transient cold shots. The NAO has been positive since end of October and the PNA has been negative since early October and neither of those looks to change in the next two weeks, until we get those to change it's not going to happen for us, maybe we get a flizzard or a light icing event, maybe. I don't want to write the winter off yet as I think we will see snow. Looking at our historical numbers, if we blank this year that will be 7 out of the past 10 years for RDU with under 2" of snow. I think winters work in 25 year cycles, or there about, and we are nearing the end of a terrible 25 year cycle that started in 1989/1990, the next 25 years will be much more snowy us, we just have to ride it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 LOL at the GFS, almost back to what the Euro showed the other night when the NC/VA got a big winter storm. TN looks to get some good snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS looks to be about 50 miles N of the great Euro run for NC/VA the other night, jackpots NoVA and CeVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 LOL at the GFS, almost back to what the Euro showed the other night when the NC/VA got a big winter storm. TN looks to get some good snow on this run.its heading towards a ukmet solution. Compare gfs at 60 to 72 on the 0z ukmet on really. Dig baby dig! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 its heading towards a ukmet solution. Compare gfs at 60 to 72 on the 0z ukmet on really. Dig baby dig! DT is going to go nuts, it hits Richmond and points N/E really good. Could the UK and JMA score a coup here, probably just a GFS blip, we will see what the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 LOL at the GFS, almost back to what the Euro showed the other night when the NC/VA got a big winter storm. TN looks to get some good snow on this run. its heading towards a ukmet solution. Compare gfs at 60 to 72 on the 0z ukmet on really. Dig baby dig! lol man if it keeps trending this way all of NC is going to be in business. My worry is the timing. If it was like the Euro and had stalled our S/W out west delaying it by about 24 hours we would be in business. As it stands now we have to hope the cold air filters in faster and this gets wetter for longer. It's a lot to hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 DT is going to go nuts, it hits Richmond and points N/E really good. Could the UK and JMA score a coup here, probably just a GFS blip, we will see what the Euro shows.its happened before. Energy is still over northern Alaska/ Yukon sparse data area. The ukmet dug a little more farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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