GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18Z GFS ens. mean still shows the big storm/CAD/ZR in a good portion of the CAD areas. Please put the guns away. I'm just delivering a message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Google is your friend! https://www.google.com/search?q=airport+codes&oq=airport+codes&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.1859j0j7&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8 and you are correct that was lazy of me. Sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18Z GFS ens. mean still shows the big storm/CAD/ZR in a good portion of the CAD areas. Please put the guns away. I'm just delivering a message. Don't worry. Lookout's buddy on Chan 2 just reiterated it will be warm the next two weeks Possible the Doc is wrong, and we have no worries! Certainly the folks in Atl will take this to heart. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18Z GFS ens. mean still shows the big storm/CAD/ZR in a good portion of the CAD areas. Please put the guns away. I'm just delivering a message.I only want to bring out weapons when you say it's NOT going to be icy or snowy! Keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If the modeling doesn't change someone is going to be buried under an inch of ice. I really don't like using the term due but there are many CAD areas that are due or overdue for a nasty storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I fully expect the storm to trend NW and warmer on the models before they realize the strength of the confluence. I have no basis for this, other than past model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just FYI.. the 18z GFS tries to repeat the Feb 8-9 event on Valentine's Day. Yep, I just noticed this on the Meteostar page for Hickory. Tuesday and Wednesday of next week are very borderline for ice at KHKY. Next weekend would be snow followed by ice at KHKY. Then Valentine's Day is mega-ice with the temps never getting out of the 20s at KHKY. Wow! This is crazy how many wintry threats are coming down the pipeline. The warmest day on the entire run is going to be this Sunday with highs in the mid 50s. That's pretty much climo for around here, and we will be below climo for the entire next two weeks if this comes to pass, with historic winter storms! Sign me up for this ride! It's about to get real around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just FYI.. the 18z GFS tries to repeat the Feb 8-9 event on Valentine's Day. Would not be surprising in the least .We have been in a repeat pattern all Summer/Winter/Fall. Many remember in the fall when it seemed like literally every weekend we had rain. Then just this past month it was the PV dropping in to give us cold round after cold round. Now perhaps it's that fun time when we get repeats of winter storms. Hopefully though it ends up being snow/IP and not ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yep, I just noticed this on the Meteostar page for Hickory. Tuesday and Wednesday of next week are very borderline for ice at KHKY. Next weekend would be snow followed by ice at KHKY. Then Valentine's Day is mega-ice with the temps never getting out of the 20s at KHKY. Wow! This is crazy how many wintry threats are coming down the pipeline. The warmest day on the entire run is going to be this Sunday with highs in the mid 50s. That's pretty much climo for around here, and we will be below climo for the entire next two weeks if this comes to pass, with historic winter storms! Sign me up for this ride! It's about to get real around here... Agreed. The western piedmont into the mountains will be the favored location for the storms coming up. Gonna be a fun ride! The confluence before truncation looked decent, really would like to see a track farther SE and get a pure snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ughhh....people who BARELY follow weather are getting a hold of these model's snow maps and are spreading them everywhere creating fear. http://www.reddit.com/r/Atlanta/comments/1wl2e3/update_on_possible_winter_storm_feb_710_period/ The map is showing several inches of snow, but we here know this is NOT right....even the general populace are becoming model huggers without knowing any details other than what some random's site algorithm is spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Would not be surprising in the least .We have been in a repeat pattern all Summer/Winter/Fall. Many remember in the fall when it seemed like literally every weekend we had rain. Then just this past month it was the PV dropping in to give us cold round after cold round. Now perhaps it's that fun time when we get repeats of winter storms. Hopefully though it ends up being snow/IP and not ZR. Yeah, you just can't go running this moisture underneath, and bringing down highs like since March, and do it in the heart of winter, with climo just shouting, lol. It might be a bust all the way through, but I'll take my chances. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BraseltonGAWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Don't worry. Lookout's buddy on Chan 2 just reiterated it will be warm the next two weeks Possible the Doc is wrong, and we have no worries! Certainly the folks in Atl will take this to heart. T He said it again tonight? Geez, he said the same thing last night. Where does he come up with these forecasts?!? He is also the one that said Monday night, right before the storm hit, that totals were trending down for Tuesday around metro Atlanta. I bet he is the one that the Mayor and Governor were paying attention too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here is what I just issued to my followers on Facebook and on my website regarding the month of February... Here is my thinking behind the forecast. I used a blend of the models (which show the first half of the month), the oscillations, and the general pattern. There appears to be, once again, a ridge building towards the poles similar to what we had in January. The oscillations do concern me, and that is why I did not show below average temperatures through the southeast. While there will be plenty of cold shots coming, I am not sure how long they will last due to the lack of blocking with a positive NAO. A negative PNA is not good either for in general cold in the southeast. The precipitation does look to be relatively high for many locations. There will be numerous weather systems moving across the country during this time, and this could help to produce above average precipitation in many areas of the southeast. I am not as confident in this forecast as I was in January. Back in December I said we are due for a bad February just by using the law of averages. The Februarys of recent has been relatively dry. February, in most areas, is the second snowiest month. So, we will have plenty to track through the month of February. Now if we can just get the cold air and the moisture at the same time again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ughhh....people who BARELY follow weather are getting a hold of these model's snow maps and are spreading them everywhere creating fear. http://www.reddit.com/r/Atlanta/comments/1wl2e3/update_on_possible_winter_storm_feb_710_period/ The map is showing several inches of snow, but we here know this is NOT right....even the general populace are becoming model huggers without knowing any details other than what some random's site algorithm is spitting out. Fox6 WBRC posted a map with the European model and the snowfall amounts. It's all over the place on Facebook. Nobody has bothered sharing their GFS map, so everyone is expecting a big snow event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ughhh....people who BARELY follow weather are getting a hold of these model's snow maps and are spreading them everywhere creating fear. http://www.reddit.com/r/Atlanta/comments/1wl2e3/update_on_possible_winter_storm_feb_710_period/ The map is showing several inches of snow, but we here know this is NOT right....even the general populace are becoming model huggers without knowing any details other than what some random's site algorithm is spitting out. I couldn't agree more with you and totally disagree with Calculus. So, they're looking at bogus clown maps and saying ATL is going to get a huge snow when in fact the model isn't giving ATL any snow!! Wow!!! What good can come from this when these ignorant people see these BS clown maps? It is tricky enough even for us knowledgeable people! A misinformation mess in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I actually think Calc is right about the maps being public and it being OK for people to look at them. My reasoning: a lot (well maybe all?) of the media personality mets here kind of missed the forecast for this week's storm. People here in ATL feel burned. So it's understandable that people are searching for other sources of weather information. They will spend their time sorting through them until they find what feels reliable to them. They will quickly learn that models don't really mean much 12-14 days out. It's just a process they'll have to go through, and it's OK for them to go through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ughhh....people who BARELY follow weather are getting a hold of these model's snow maps and are spreading them everywhere creating fear. http://www.reddit.com/r/Atlanta/comments/1wl2e3/update_on_possible_winter_storm_feb_710_period/ The map is showing several inches of snow, but we here know this is NOT right....even the general populace are becoming model huggers without knowing any details other than what some random's site algorithm is spitting out. I do like the potential this month is showing; could wind up a bust and could wind up a smorgasbord; that's the beauty of the weather. Perhaps what's happened this week in the South will actually cause more folks to follow closer what's transpiring, be aware, and be prepared. I've seen plenty of hour-hour and even minute-minute WILD mood swings on these boards the last few years; in fact right up to the beginning of Tuesdays event we had red-taggers "discussing" the validity of some of the short-term models. There will be disinformation however an interested and engaged public is better than being oblivious.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I actually think Calc is right about the maps being public and it being OK for people to look at them. My reasoning: a lot (well maybe all?) of the media personality mets here kind of missed the forecast for this week's storm. People here in ATL feel burned. So it's understandable that people are searching for other sources of weather information. They will spend their time sorting through them until they find what feels reliable to them. They will quickly learn that models don't really mean much 12-14 days out. It's just a process they'll have to go through, and it's OK for them to go through it. The maps need to be repaired. They're no good for anyone to see because they're bogus! They don't agree even with the model from which they are being generated. This is going to hurt the ECMWF as much as anyone. They had SAV and CHS getting 4" of snow yesterday whereas the accurate GFS maps had very little. LMAO Just so everyone knows: the Euro clown maps totally ignore the atmosphere above two meters. If the Euro projects 32 or lower at 2 meters, it predicts all precip as snow. BOGUS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The maps need to be repaired. They're no good for anyone to see because they're bogus! They don't agree even with the model from which they are being generated. This is going to hurt the ECMWF as much as anyone. They had SAV and CHS getting 4" of snow yesterday whereas the accurate GFS maps had very little. LMAO Just so everyone knows: the Euro clown maps totally ignore the atmosphere above two meters. If the Euro projects 32 or lower at 2 meters, it predicts all precip as snow. BOGUS!!! I know. You know. And the rest of the people will figure it out, once they realize what they see on those distant future maps does not come to pass. (And yes FWIW I agree with you that the maps should be fixed, it's shoddy practice to release them, but that's a different thingie than the discussion about people seeing them. ) I do like the potential this month is showing; could wind up a bust and could wind up a smorgasbord; that's the beauty of the weather. Perhaps what's happened this week in the South will actually cause more folks to follow closer what's transpiring, be aware, and be prepared. I've seen plenty of hour-hour and even minute-minute WILD mood swings on these boards the last few years; in fact right up to the beginning of Tuesdays event we had red-taggers "discussing" the validity of some of the short-term models. There will be disinformation however an interested and engaged public is better than being oblivious.. Yes! Like I said, I hope people take this experience and decide to learn more about weather. That'd be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just listened to Robert at wxsouth. Very encouraging video if you want more winter in the SE.He says he doesn't think we will havw a - NAO none the less he says stormtrack will move south and east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's been since 2005 since most of the area has had major ice storm so we are overdue. If the models are right with all of the key features, this storm could end up much worse and more widespread than the 1999, 2002, and 2005 ice storms. The key is the confluence I think. If that is there the high gets locked in and we don't warm above freezing for quite a while. If we lose the confluence the is will be lesser of a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Okay. So in my opinion the precipitation starts off as snow/sleep/freezing rain for charlotte then turns to rain as the warm sector crosses over. The low on the ensemble crosses to the NW of charlotte. This is all based off of one ensemble run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think all of the models are bad sometimes. The past storm the Euro was showing the storm first and everyone wanted the GFS to trend to it. Funny thing is it did and some folks then said the GFS was wrong. Now the Euro is showing snow and people are saying it is wrong again. It might not be all snow for everyone, but some folks in NC might see some snow before changing to ice, and others will get all ice. Either way there is potential there for a big storm, and that is all the models can show this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaBlizzard Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yea, I've been interested in Weather most of my 51 years, the pattern is looking good this Feb., Jet stream way south, for Gulf Lows, Cold air North= Snowstorms. Bring it on ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here is what I just issued to my followers on Facebook and on my website regarding the month of February... Here is my thinking behind the forecast. I used a blend of the models (which show the first half of the month), the oscillations, and the general pattern. There appears to be, once again, a ridge building towards the poles similar to what we had in January. The oscillations do concern me, and that is why I did not show below average temperatures through the southeast. While there will be plenty of cold shots coming, I am not sure how long they will last due to the lack of blocking with a positive NAO. A negative PNA is not good either for in general cold in the southeast. The precipitation does look to be relatively high for many locations. There will be numerous weather systems moving across the country during this time, and this could help to produce above average precipitation in many areas of the southeast. I am not as confident in this forecast as I was in January. Back in December I said we are due for a bad February just by using the law of averages. The Februarys of recent has been relatively dry. February, in most areas, is the second snowiest month. So, we will have plenty to track through the month of February. Now if we can just get the cold air and the moisture at the same time again... That looks like a good forecast, Jordan. And I agree...it's hard to have a great deal of confidence in the temp department. Standard indexes appear quite unfavorable, but other influences offset. It'll definitely be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yes, this is going to be a winter to remember. February is somewhat of a transitional month at least for most of the populace, sans FL and the mountains of GA, TN, NC, VA. Anything will and can happen. But you guys know all of this. It has just been amazing to me the consistent cold, and when they want to warm it up it does not last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Okay. So in my opinion the precipitation starts off as snow/sleep/freezing rain for charlotte then turns to rain as the warm sector crosses over. The low on the ensemble crosses to the NW of charlotte. This is all based off of one ensemble run though. Are you sure it's not a Miller B that moves to the southern Apps and then reforms just off the coast? If that happens, then more than likely many of the folks just east of the mountains in NC and upstate could stay frozen/freezing as the quick jump to the coast keeps the cold air locked in. This of course is pure speculation at this time, but something that has happened before. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ok. If it really isn't a snow storm like the Euro shows, is there still an ice threat? Shouldn't we be looking at that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We have been fortunate to have the -WPO to set up all the Arctic highs over land to supply much colder Air. That coupled with the +TNH pattern making the pattern wash, rinse and repeat. What I think has finally shifted the orientation of the trough is the MJO getting into a favorable phase of 7 and eventually 8, 1 and 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ok. If it really isn't a snow storm like the Euro shows, is there still an ice threat? Shouldn't we be looking at that? Taking the 18z GFS as face value would be a all rain event near or at the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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