Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 How about a feb 04? We saw that one this far out! Indeed.. initially I remember it looking icy but the 0 line kept trending south. Good storm... hopefully the same will happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's a 1048 high building in before the event. 1048!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If that high is indeed pegged correctly at 1048, there's only going to be one trend for this storm and that's going to be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z spares most of SC/GA from a big ice storm opposed to previous runs. Each run seems to get less and less for us. I'll gladly take that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's a 1048 high building in before the event. 1048!! Do you buy the strength though? I guess even if you cut to 1036 that'll still do the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Do you buy the strength though? I guess even if you cut to 1036 that'll still do the job. Don't quote me on this but haven't we already had several highs that dropped down from canada this winter in the 1050 range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This storm is definitely grabbing mt interest. By the looks of the 18z gfs my area would be crippled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I gotta hear this story. Do tell. Big storm with wide model agreement up to 10 days in advance. A good thread to read on that one. Basically, it busted bad for many in the east in early March 2001: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/9024-march-4-6-2001/ Be sure to remind Ji of this one as much as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That March 01 storm was our storm, then DC's storm then Philly's storm...disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z spares most of SC/GA from a big ice storm opposed to previous runs. Each run seems to get less and less for us. I'll gladly take that solution. I don't believe it. In my experience these cads typically trend stronger, if the 18z setup unfolds verbatim I see a big zr event for all Cad areas in GA & SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I don't believe it. In my experience these cads typically trend stronger, if the 18z setup unfolds verbatim I see a big zr event for all Cad areas in GA & SC. I agree. If we assume the players on the field are the correct ones, this is only going to trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If the SE ridge can trend weaker (like it has all winter) that'll allow the trough to dig farther south and get this thing going Miller A time in the gulf. Truncation of the GFS may the the issue here in part but I like the set up leading into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Cosgrove Storm? How about a feb 04? We saw that one this far out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z spares most of SC/GA from a big ice storm opposed to previous runs. Each run seems to get less and less for us. I'll gladly take that solution. Shawn. Actually, this run verbatim gives much of the CAD region a major ZR imo. It looks like ATL and CAE may stay just above 32 at two meters, but I'll see what Meteostar shows. I think AHN gets to right about 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Cosgrove Storm? Feb 04 was the snow. Dec 05 was the LC storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ah, that's right. #sweetmemories Feb 04 was the snow. Dec 05 was the LC storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Reading the latest discussion from mhx there's the mention for some moisture around hwy 17 with my temp in the low 20s tonight and accuwx has freezing drizzle in the forecast tonight any truth to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Shawn. Actually, this run verbatim gives much of the CAD region a major ZR imo. It looks like ATL and CAE may stay just above 32 at two meters, but I'll see what Meteostar shows. I think AHN gets to right about 32. Thanks for the correction Larry. I have really low resolution maps from instantweather and it seemd the 2m line was away from these areas besides a bit in NE GA and the Upstate area. I'll go back to dupage's website and see what I can see. EDIT: Okay, I checked some soundings etc. KCAE, KATL, Macon seem okay. N. Ga areas may see some Winter along with GSP. Those 5 sites are all I checked though. Plus truncation really messes these timeframes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Bastardi shows on his video that the first one on the 4-5th is indeed a cutter but that the 2nd one on the 7-8th will traverse the gulf coast from Tx through Ala/Ga.. then pivot north right up the East coast as a very strong system. The placement of the high and low would seem to indicate such a scenario but details will have to await verification as it develops and I would hesitate to get bogged down in exact track and amounts this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Shawn. Actually, this run verbatim gives much of the CAD region a major ZR imo. It looks like ATL and CAE may stay just above 32 at two meters, but I'll see what Meteostar shows. I think AHN gets to right about 32. For the record: What I said above is confirmed by MeteoStar except Athens doesn't get below 34. ATL/CAE get to 35-36. But GVL gets some ZR before they get too warm. GSP gets creamed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not banter but model review (grain of salt). 6Z GFS had a very hard freeze down here in the southern region (lower 20's) at about 2/12 -14 give or take; 18Z has nothing below 45º in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 For the record: What I said above is confirmed by MeteoStar except Athens doesn't get below 34. ATL/CAE get to 35-36. But GVL gets some ZR before they get too warm. GSP gets creamed. What are the temperatures looking like for the mountain areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What are the temperatures looking like for the mountain areas? Asheville gets down right to 32 with some ZR for a decent portion but then they warm above 32 for the rest of it. Hardly any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 For the record: What I said above is confirmed by MeteoStar except Athens doesn't get below 34. ATL/CAE get to 35-36. But GVL gets some ZR before they get too warm. GSP gets creamed. larry who is gvl and who is gsp. I am in greenville and gsp is the airport here. I assume gvl, greenville nc? and gsp greenville spartanburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 larry who is gvl and who is gsp. I am in greenville and gsp is the airport here. I assume gvl, greenville nc? and gsp greenville spartanburg. GSP is airport there. GVL is Gainseville, GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 larry who is gvl and who is gsp. I am in greenville and gsp is the airport here. I assume gvl, greenville nc? and gsp greenville spartanburg. Not Larry , but I think GVL is Gainesville , GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 larry who is gvl and who is gsp. I am in greenville and gsp is the airport here. I assume gvl, greenville nc? and gsp greenville spartanburg. Google is your friend! https://www.google.com/search?q=airport+codes&oq=airport+codes&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.1859j0j7&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 thanks guys.....\not that I am happy about being "creamed" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Perhaps this belong in the banter thread, but are the models still solidly all liquid for the next batch of precip early next week (outside of the higher elevations)? Given our colder trend this winter, I half-expected some frozen precip to make it into the foothills/piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just FYI.. the 18z GFS tries to repeat the Feb 8-9 event on Valentine's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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