GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Folks, For most, the 12Z Euro clown amounts are far too high as often is the case. They're absolutely bogus. They have 4-8" in the ATL-AHN corridor when 850's are safely above 0C. GSP's 15" is overdone. Now that I don't feel these maps are accurate at all, I wish they weren't available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Folks, For most, the 12Z Euro clown amounts are far too high as often is the case. They're absolutely bogus. They have 4-8" in the ATL-AHN corridor when 850's are safely above 0C. GSP's 15" is overdone. Now that I don't feel these maps are accurate at all, I wish they weren't available. I feel like the EPS members will be pretty whacky too. (The ones I have at least) so they are of no use except for the actual liquid precip part. Then the temps have to basically be compared next to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I have been keeping my eye on this event next weekend for a while now. Models are pretty consistent, I think somewhere in the GA/SC area has a pretty good chance of a very nasty ice storm. 12Z Euro has 32 degree line near ATL, and the big thing is the surface high is quite strong and because of the confluent flow in the NE does not retreat offshore but hangs tough in New England. GGEM, GFS all show the same basic scenario and there is less spread than normal in the ensemble data. Whether we get it here in ATL is a question, but I fear someone from here NE is really going to have a nasty situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Lookout and Delta, Thanks for the analysis. This looks like another one we'll be tracking, especially if you live in the favored CAD regions. As Delta said, wedges can be tough for the models to forecast, especially if the high is strong enough and in a favored position. The nuisance ice storm we had in January 2005 (I think that's the right year) featured a strong CAD that bled the cold air all the way down into central Georgia. Unless things trend significantly colder over the next week, I think I'd rather pass the ZR storm to someone else. Any takers? El K, the 05 storm finished up here with a period of sleet. It made it the best sledding I'd had since the 90's. This is far enough out, and cads are always coming in colder, so I'd hope for some sleet here too, but no, I won't take the zr outright, I have to fight and fight the waa for sleet first, lol. The scary thing is we are way over due for a baddy ice storm. Way, way over due. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Are you guys f ing kidding. If Atlanta gets an ice storm next weekend I'm going to be highly pissed. I would like for winter to be over. Bring on spring..... This will be the first winter storm in my life I've routed against. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Folks, For most, the 12Z Euro clown amounts are far too high as often is the case. They're absolutely bogus. They have 4-8" in the ATL-AHN corridor when 850's are safely above 0C. GSP's 15" is overdone. Now that I don't feel these maps are accurate at all, I wish they weren't available. These Euro maps are not all snow. It takes sleet and even ZR and calls it all snow. Also, amounts are usually overdone. In other words useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi10m ECMWF has what would be a near record US Snowcover by 240 hours. 4 storms in 10 days send snowcover to Austin to Atlanta line Exception: snowline is exaggerated too far south by the Euro at least in GA since their clown maps are bogus. ATL wouldn't have snow on the ground day 10 based on the Euro verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I have been keeping my eye on this event next weekend for a while now. Models are pretty consistent, I think somewhere in the GA/SC area has a pretty good chance of a very nasty ice storm. 12Z Euro has 32 degree line near ATL, and the big thing is the surface high is quite strong and because of the confluent flow in the NE does not retreat offshore but hangs tough in New England. GGEM, GFS all show the same basic scenario and there is less spread than normal in the ensemble data. Whether we get it here in ATL is a question, but I fear someone from here NE is really going to have a nasty situation. 100% agree! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAdawg Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 El K, the 05 storm finished up here with a period of sleet. It made it the best sledding I'd had since the 90's. This is far enough out, and cads are always coming in colder, so I'd hope for some sleet here too, but no, I won't take the zr outright, I have to fight and fight the waa for sleet first, lol. The scary thing is we are way over due for a baddy ice storm. Way, way over due. T I am with you on this matter. It has been quiet awhile since our area has seen a sig. icing event. I always say mother nature balances herself out and unfortunitely our time may be coming. In light of the type of the temps we have been having I will be watching very closely these next 8 or so days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi1m new Raging Weatherbull video on http://weatherbell.com prem shows the next 10 days of snowmeccolden to strike the US .. snow & cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It looks like most of nc and the upstate would be all snow through sometime between the 204 and 210 frame. Wouldn't be shocked to see this thing trend colder with that monster high over the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thought this was interesting to show how much things can change from a 192 hour forecast with the models. Below the first map is for Mondays event which looks to give the central/northern VA 2-4" of snow. This is based on today's 12z GFS run about 96 hours out and is supported by the Euro and there respective ENS. The second map is from the 12z GFS from 4 days ago which models the event from about 192 hours out. The one from 4 days ago has this upcoming Monday's event tracking the SLP west of TN and than it eventually tracked it over NYC. Today's GFS/Euro (96 hours out) has it tracking just south of RDU right over the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Are you guys f ing kidding. If Atlanta gets an ice storm next weekend I'm going to be highly pissed. I would like for winter to be over. Bring on spring..... This will be the first winter storm in my life I've routed against. Atlanta sure has been lucky to have been spared any major icestorms in nearly a decade. January 2005 was the last time, unfortunately I would think were overdue for one whether we like it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It looks like most of nc and the upstate would be all snow through sometime between the 204 and 210 frame. Wouldn't be shocked to see this thing trend colder with that monster high over the NE. Yes, even if this thing is not all snow it still looks like NC could picck up a decent amount, and maybe some ice on top of it. A few inches off snow with ice could just as easily shut down things here the same as a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I have been keeping my eye on this event next weekend for a while now. Models are pretty consistent, I think somewhere in the GA/SC area has a pretty good chance of a very nasty ice storm. 12Z Euro has 32 degree line near ATL, and the big thing is the surface high is quite strong and because of the confluent flow in the NE does not retreat offshore but hangs tough in New England. GGEM, GFS all show the same basic scenario and there is less spread than normal in the ensemble data. Whether we get it here in ATL is a question, but I fear someone from here NE is really going to have a nasty situation. I have a sneaky feeling that that setup across NE, we are def. due for a nasty ice storm. Might not make it down to MCN, but I have seen it many times where 2m temps are too warm as shown on models and Macon certainly is in play. With that said, its still PLEEEEENTY of time to watch this, but I would agree with you, there is enough consistency in the models where someone around here is going to have a crippling ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I have a sneaky feeling that that setup across NE, we are def. due for a nasty ice storm. Might not make it down to MCN, but I have seen it many times where 2m temps are too warm as shown on models and Macon certainly is in play. With that said, its still PLEEEEENTY of time to watch this, but I would agree with you, there is enough consistency in the models where someone around here is going to have a crippling ice storm. There's enough consistency that a thread should probably be created for this storm. If it doesn't pan out; that's not a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 15" totals in Greenville SC I'll be amazed if we get even half of that here. While the models have been overall consistent I expect them to start trending in the wrong direction as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thought this was interesting to show how much things can change from a 192 hour forecast with the models. Below the first map is for Mondays event which looks to give the central/northern VA 2-4" of snow. This is based on today's 12z GFS run about 96 hours out and is supported by the Euro and there respective ENS. The second map is from the 12z GFS from 4 days ago which models the event from about 192 hours out. The one from 4 days ago has this upcoming Monday's event tracking the SLP west of TN and than it eventually tracked it over NYC. Today's GFS/Euro (96 hours out) has it tracking just south of RDU right over the OBX. That's getting close to a sneaky event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 El K, the 05 storm finished up here with a period of sleet. It made it the best sledding I'd had since the 90's. This is far enough out, and cads are always coming in colder, so I'd hope for some sleet here too, but no, I won't take the zr outright, I have to fight and fight the waa for sleet first, lol. The scary thing is we are way over due for a baddy ice storm. Way, way over due. T Tony, You're right. When it comes to sledding, nothing beats a good layer of sleet. When I was still living in Rome, we had about a 6-7" snow that transitioned to sleet leaving about a 1/2" layer of pure ice on top. I believe it was January of 1988 (or '89?). That was some amazing sledding! Plus, it stayed cold for about a week after the storm so everything stuck around for a while. I was in college at the time (Berry) and they didn't have anything to treat the sidewalks or roads with. It made for some very careful walking when you went to class! My luck ran out one afternoon and I hit my backside as my books went flying....quite embarrassing! The college president fell and broke her elbow and my grandfather fell and broke his hip. I imagine there were plenty of other spills and broken bones that I never heard about. That transition to sleet made the end result far different and more dangerous! Georgia is overdue for a "baddy ice storm". I hope this isn't the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 For the record, Robert is very bullish on the upcoming pattern due to several factors. The warm water anomalies just South of Alaska, the potential over the top blocking at the pole, along with the sagging of the storm track further intro the south before turning up at the NC/SC coastal areas. He thinks the cross polar flow will continue due to the abnormally high heights over Alaska and Greenland (this despite no -NAO) and spell cold for the whole country except Florida and with the storm track coming our way, could be an exciting and extended period of storm watching coming up. With his very accurate call this last storm that others were missing, I would not bet against him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 One can hope he continues his hot streak............. I think the 500 maps provide room for the SE ridge to fight back. Time will tell just how much fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 For the record, Robert is very bullish on the upcoming pattern due to several factors. The warm water anomalies just South of Alaska, the potential over the top blocking at the pole, along with the sagging of the storm track further intro the south before turning up at the NC/SC coastal areas. He thinks the cross polar flow will continue due to the abnormally high heights over Alaska and Greenland (this despite no -NAO) and spell cold for the whole country except Florida and with the storm track coming our way, could be an exciting and extended period of storm watching coming up It seems to be shaping up that way. As has been pointed out, the upcoming "torch"/February disaster seems to have given way to a colder, stormier solution. I would feel better if we could get rid of the -PNA pattern. It is going to be very, very difficult to get a decent system to move south of us with a -PNA unless we can get the PV to be pressed very far south and east, which is difficult to do without a -NAO. The pattern would seem to favor more Miller B-type events. Mixy, messy, sloppy. But I'd rather have that than rain. It would be nice to get a big snowstorm though, without having to worry about the mix zone right on your doorstep or the sun angle or the ground temp or.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's getting close to a sneaky event. LOL, unfortunately our cold air feed left us with the bloody trough in the west, although Cali needs the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It seems to be shaping up that way. As has been pointed out, the upcoming "torch"/February disaster seems to have given way to a colder, stormier solution. I would feel better if we could get rid of the -PNA pattern. It is going to be very, very difficult to get a decent system to move south of us with a -PNA unless we can get the PV to be pressed very far south and east, which is difficult to do without a -NAO. The pattern would seem to favor more Miller B-type events. Mixy, messy, sloppy. But I'd rather have that than rain. It would be nice to get a big snowstorm though, without having to worry about the mix zone right on your doorstep or the sun angle or the ground temp or.... Will see what happens after this Feb 10th event, the past couple of Euro ensemble runs are starting to back off on lower heights down to us, looks like we would be slightly above seasonal after the 12/13th. Long way to go, but if people are rooting for an early spring there is a chance after say the 12/13th, just based on the ensemble runs the past couple of days, who knows, maybe we moderate for a few days and after the 15th we go in the freezer again. JB thinks we all out torch in March and he has absolutely nailed this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is the classic cad winter storm..one we haven't seen in a very long time. a 1040 plus mb high, 0c 850mb temps down into nc or sc, low moving along the gulf coast, and prolific rains/snow. Only issue might be the 850mb temps as the 8c line is in extreme ne ga. But euro keeps north ga, sc, nc, etc in the 20s for the entire duration of the storm. total precip between 1.0 and 1.5 inches. Most of that is snow over nc. I'd say 75% snow, 25% sleet or freezing rain toward the end. trying to catch up today on the board (had to catch up at work today from last two days lol) and all i can say is wow. that is the classic CAD storm set up. although usually they start weaker on the models and then tend to strengthen as we get closer. i would think one showing up this strong this far out has a high chance to weaken (i mean heck, it couldnt get much stronger). then again with so much support from other models its definitely got my attention already thats for sure. i cant remember the specifics of the infamous one in dec 05, i know we were talking about it on the board LONG before nws, media etc. does anyone recall just when that one started showing the signals on the models? i know it was several days out but not sure how many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Will see what happens after this Feb 10th event, the past couple of Euro ensemble runs are starting to back off on lower heights down to us, looks like we would be slightly above seasonal after the 12/13th. Long way to go, but if people are rooting for an early spring there is a chance after say the 12/13th, just based on the ensemble runs the past couple of days, who knows, maybe we moderate for a few days and after the 15th we go in the freezer again. JB thinks we all out torch in March and he has absolutely nailed this winter. Yeah, I'll give him credit...he's done well this year. The cold has been remarkably resilient, though. But the patter has to give way at some point. Don S. continues to think Feb is cold, and he's been very good too. I don't think he's given his thoughts on March yet. Weren't the Ensembles showing warmth several days ago, only to trend in the other direction over the last few days (except maybe the last few runs you just mentioned)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just looking at the 12z Euro ensembles, anyone else think "ick" when looking at them? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 There's enough consistency that a thread should probably be created for this storm. If it doesn't pan out; that's not a bad thing. I'm not sure why there is this rush to create a new thread on something that is already being talked about. Plus it's way too far off for any thread on it right now. trying to catch up today on the board (had to catch up at work today from last two days lol) and all i can say is wow. that is the classic CAD storm set up. although usually they start weaker on the models and then tend to strengthen as we get closer. i would think one showing up this strong this far out has a high chance to weaken (i mean heck, it couldnt get much stronger). then again with so much support from other models its definitely got my attention already thats for sure. i cant remember the specifics of the infamous one in dec 05, i know we were talking about it on the board LONG before nws, media etc. does anyone recall just when that one started showing the signals on the models? i know it was several days out but not sure how many Yeah, if it followed the normal trend by the time it got here, it would be 15 and heavy snow here with the cad reaching the gulf coast lol But yeah, the signature is extremely strong on the euro and has the high as strong as 1044mb in the perfect position. You really can't ask for better so if something like that materialized, temps would not be an issue at the surface north of i-20 that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just looking at the 12z Euro ensembles, anyone else think "ick" when looking at them? lol Double ick is what I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It (12z euro ensemble) appears to be moving the high quite a bit faster than 0z, off the coast instead of anchored in the northeast. No double barrel (parent high back in the plains) high look like on the op either. We really need a banana high in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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