Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What's amazed me this winter is how crappy the NAO(mostly +), PNA(mostly -), and AO(mostly +) have been. Looking at the LR it looks like they stay really crappy but we're looking at a great winter pattern coming up. The only thing that has been great is the EPO. It has been almost consistantly negative and that continues to be the LR forecast. So is the EPO the biggest player? Yeah, I agree. Look at the progs today. Just terrible. Yet, Feb still looks good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Larry has pointed out with this -ENSO, we are primed for ZR in GA. That, coupled with modelling of copius QPF is frankly very concerning with cold temps following the system. Thanks for the discussion guys. Awesome job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah, I agree. Look at the progs today. Just terrible. Yet, Feb still looks good: I guess the -EPO/-WPO are saving us from a torch and will give a chance of some mixing storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The threat for 2/7-8 is still there as others are noting as, indeed, the 12Z 1/30 GFS is still another run with a CAD/major ZR for much of the main CAD regions 2/7-8. The signal from so far out (now 8-9 days) has been remarkably consistent. Just for the record (as details not important that far away), unlike many of the other runs of the GFS/Euro, this run is just a little too warm for ATL-AHN for ZR and would be a very miserable heavy, cold rain (~1.75" and as cold as 34-35). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 12z cmc has a storm on 2/8 but it is a rain event for everybody as the hp to north is sliding off the coast. At this point the main thing is there is a storm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I have never seen such an extreme CAD signal on a LR GFS map, particularly post-truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Some of the runs is the strongest, wettest, and coldest cad the gfs and to a lesser extent, the other models, have projected in many many moons. For the gfs to show cad to that extend and cold that far out, it has to be a pretty strong one to say the least. I agree with this I have never seen such an extreme CAD signal on a LR GFS map, particularly post-truncation. I can't remember a time either....under doing...yes....over doing....no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 12Z 1/30 GFS ensemble is still another ens. run with the 2/7-8 CAD/ZR storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The Day 11 CPC Super Ensemble looks iffy for us from an anomaly perspective but the analog dates are mix type events for central NC, but the 70/80's are hard to get great data on, but at least shows a lot of potential for mix type event. The analog for Feb 79 has been showing up now for several days, not the PDI date, but early Feb 79 which was every snow for central NC. These CPC Super Ensembles have been pretty good this winter, hopefully it keeps it up. Analog Date - Winter Event 2/9/75 - 2/5/75 had a frzn/ip/snow mix 2/11/82 - 2/13/82 had a rain/snow mix in RDU, looked to be snowier farther west 2/25/72 - 2/19/72 had a frzn/ip/snow mix 2/8/79 - 2/7/79 had 6" of snow in RDU plus some ice, 2/9/79 had another light event 2/3/72 - cold rain 2/25/82 - 2/27/82 had a frzn/ip/snow mix Based on this alone it looks like we stand a very good chance of seeing a mix of ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I can already tell based on hour 120 that the 12Z Euro will likely have the 2/7-8 CAD/ZR storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That is nasty! I don't want any part of a zr storm like that. I would just take the rain...LOL! Agreed! Anything but ice please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I can already tell based on hour 120 that the 12Z Euro will likely have the 2/7-8 CAD/ZR storm.What type of severity did it show for the Tues zr threat? Was it a nuisance or more of a moderate threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What type of severity did it show for the Tues zr threat? Was it a nuisance or more of a moderate threat? Verbatim, it is shown as just a miserable, cold rain CAD event for all but northernmost NC CAD areas. Any ZR would be minimal per this and the prior Euro runs verbatim. It isn't even that close in most of the GA and upstate SC CAD areas with ~37-40 for the coldest. The 850's there are quite a bit too warm. Edit: I see you're in VA. So, you may still get some verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Euro at 200 keeps it's blockbuster icy look Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I can already tell based on hour 120 that the 12Z Euro will likely have the 2/7-8 CAD/ZR storm. Confirmed for 2/7-8. ZR for ATL-AHN but legit (sub 0C 850), not false clown-based, snow for much of WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 wow the 12z euro is better across the board. 1042 to 1044 high over the northeast, 0c 850mb line into the upstate and temps in the 20s in north ga/carolinas with a ton of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Winter storm incoming on the euro at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 i dont like the look of this euro run so far.. at 192 for the midlands and southern areas of GA. icy look galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Confirmed for 2/7-8. ZR for ATL-AHN but snow fro much of WNC This is the classic cad winter storm..one we haven't seen in a very long time. a 1040 plus mb high, 0c 850mb temps down into nc or sc, low moving along the gulf coast, and prolific rains/snow. Only issue might be the 850mb temps as the 8c line is in extreme ne ga. But euro keeps north ga, sc, nc, etc in the 20s for the entire duration of the storm. total precip between 1.0 and 1.5 inches. Most of that is snow over nc. I'd say 75% snow, 25% sleet or freezing rain toward the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The models have trended colder and colder the closer we get to the events all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The models have trended colder and colder the closer we get to the events all winter. Forgot to mention it has upper teens in the northern mountains/northern foothills of nc. that's some cold stuff there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 i dont like the look of this euro run so far.. at 192 for the midlands and southern areas of GA. icy look galore. How icy does it look? I've lived in central Georgia since 1998 and we've only had one nuisance ice storm during that period. I would love to avoid anything to do with ZR. Sleet and snow are just fine, but ZR is a totally different animal...I would much rather have a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 How icy does it look? I've lived in central Georgia since 1998 and we've only had one nuisance ice storm during that period. I would love to avoid anything to do with ZR. Sleet and snow are just fine, but ZR is a totally different animal...I would much rather have a cold rain. I doubt it gets to perry. The freezing line at it's most southern extend goes from about lagrange to augusta then retreats slowly to the northeast. I wouldn't concern myself with these type of details though. Other than the rough outline/scenario, these details aren't worth much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thank the heavens that most of the Midlands are spared with 33-35 for the heart of the event on this Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is the classic cad winter storm..one we haven't seen in a very long time. a 1040 plus mb high, 0c 850mb temps down into nc or sc, low moving along the gulf coast, and prolific rains/snow. Only issue might be the 850mb temps as the 8c line is in extreme ne ga. But euro keeps north ga, sc, nc, etc in the 20s for the entire duration of the storm. total precip between 1.0 and 1.5 inches. Most of that is snow over nc. I'd say 75% snow, 25% sleet or freezing rain toward the end. Snow with ice on top could get nasty. I hope the air is not so dry this time to take away from the snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Winter storm incoming on the euro at 192 BIg snow to ice event for our area. 1"+ QPF totals. Icier farther south. Looking bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is the classic cad winter storm..one we haven't seen in a very long time. a 1040 plus mb high, 0c 850mb temps down into nc or sc, low moving along the gulf coast, and prolific rains/snow. Only issue might be the 850mb temps as the 8c line is in extreme ne ga. But euro keeps north ga, sc, nc, etc in the 20s for the entire duration of the storm. total precip between 1.0 and 1.5 inches. Most of that is snow over nc. I'd say 75% snow, 25% sleet or freezing rain toward the end. from my maps it looks like 1" of qpf falls with 850 temps below freezing in sw nc. Then it turns into sleet freezing rain. No qpf issues with this one. Northern mtns stay all snow but not as much qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Snow with ice on top could get nasty. I hope the air is not so dry this time to take away from the snow totals.with what the models are showing and have been showing how much precip falls is not something to worry about with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 15" totals in Greenville SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This would HAMMER many on this board. As lookout said, central GA sits around 34 with plain rain, BUT we are a ton of days away for 1, 2...I ALWAYS hedge my bets on it being colder at 2m than forecasted with wedges. ALWAYS happens. This could put mid GA and north GA in a freaking helluva ZR storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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