tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 @WxSouth: February looking to go go down in History books for weather across nation. Blend late '70s and early '80s. Incredible 5H anomalies coming. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Oy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 @WxSouth: February looking to go go down in History books for weather across nation. Blend late '70s and early '80s. Incredible 5H anomalies coming. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That is amazing, also amazing how the early prediction(s) of a warm winter have been obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Mr. Sutherland this morning: Morning thoughts... 1. In the wake of the snowstorm, temperatures plunged into the single digits across parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and below zero in a few spots. Some highlights: Atlantic City: -3° (Broke daily record of 5° set in 2000; 2nd subzero reading of the winter and the most since winter 1995-96 when there were 3) Baltimore: 5° (10th single-digit reading of the winter and the most since winter 1981-82 when there were 10) Norfolk: 6° (Broke daily record of 10° set in 1934 and the 1st single digit reading since 1/191994 when the temperature fell to 5°) Raleigh: 7° (Tied daily record of 7° set in 1977; 2nd single digit reading of the winter and the most since winter 1999-00 when there were 2) Richmond: 4° (2nd single digit reading of the winter and the most since winter 1999-00 when there were 2) 2. The much colder than normal regime will now relax and temperatures will moderate through the first 5-7 days of February. The relaxation looks to be temporary. 3. The biggest snows still lie ahead in the 1/25-2/15 period that has looked snowy for some time from the Midwest to the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England states and perhaps farther south. The 2/8-15 period appears to have the best prospects for heaviest snows as the subtropical jet should be active and the cold should be reasserting itself. 4. The overall pattern evolution seems to be unfolding reasonably similar to 1899 albeit without the kind of extreme-to-historic cold seen that winter. That evolution also saw a temporary period of moderation followed by snowfall and severe cold. That kind of evolution still looks good on a lot of the guidance, even as day-to-day details remain to be resolved. The ensembles also suggest a renewed Arctic assault in the extended range. Hence, cities such as Baltimore, New York, and Philadelphia likely have not seen their last single-digit readings of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wowers. That is fill your bathtub up weather. With cross model agreement going on, should be interesting to see how this pans outs. Oy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 @WxSouth: February looking to go go down in History books for weather across nation. Blend late '70s and early '80s. Incredible 5H anomalies coming. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 ECMWF 1st storm Tuesday goes to Ohio/WV 2nd storm end of week has possibilities but this is likely to considerably change as is not supported by many of the ECMWF Ensembles. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 ECMWF 1st storm Tuesday goes to Ohio/WV 2nd storm end of week has possibilities Even if a storm goes into the Ohio valley, can't CAD still be locked in for the normal areas? I seem to remember a storm or to cutting that way with TN in the 50s and we received pretty severe ice over here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 OVERRUNNING FLOW INCREASES ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCESINCREASING MOST SO FOR N GA AND POPS WILL LIKELY BE INCREASED AS THEEVENT GETS CLOSER. SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAYNIGHT AND EXITS WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOW END INSTABILITY ASSOCIATEDAND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SHEAR AND ANY INCREASEDINSTABILITY THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER.MOST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING LATER WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY LOOKINGDRY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If this verified over the next 2 weeks, esp the cold that follows, this winter would go down in winter folklore for a long time to come. Just by how cold it's been, almost wall to wall since mid Nov with the exception of 2 warm spells in Dec. Hopefully we can make some history. Hasn't happened yet, but if it did it will be comical looking back at all our doom and gloom of how we where headed for another crappy winter 3 years in a row. I was thinking the same thing this morning about the next few weeks and the winter in general. Laughing at all of the doom and gloom in December and the complaining from some that this pattern can't produce snow. This morning is the first time this week I have really looked beyond this week with everything going on here. Wow! Once again, this winter is proving that you can't buy the magnitude of the warm ups the GFS (and sometimes other models) is showing in the LR. This morning, I sit in single digits for the 3rd time this month. I have lost track of how many times we have been in the teens. I have over 3" of snow on the ground. If the cold comes back as models are now showing, this could be a winter to be remembered for a long time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Tuesday definitely looks icy for the Charlotte area. The following weekend storm looks like a big dog with CAD in place again, but with the storm track possibly hugging the coast line, it could be a big snow event for western Carolinas on up into the Northeast region. The 850mb low placement will be crucial here should the low consolidate quickly enough. Regardless, the surface temps are solidly below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 ECMWF 1st storm Tuesday goes to Ohio/WV 2nd storm end of week has possibilities but this is likely to considerably change as is not supported by many of the ECMWF Ensembles. We'll see. You're lying again. There is 20 out of 50 ensemble members showing significant snow in Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well I'll already say this winter has been significant in many aspects. First, Dec's up and down ride, 7 days at KCHS 80 or above. January featuring severe weather a couple of weeks ago, many record cold snaps and waves, including the fact KCHS had its first 32 degree high in many years. In fact, quite significantly right now, KCHS has been at or below freezing for over 40 consecutive hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Should we start a separate thread for next week? Looks like two possibly big events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You're lying again. There is 20 out of 50 ensemble members showing significant snow in Charlotte.when you have time can you check other locations. AVL, HKY and RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Man how many things have we tracked this winter. It seems to never end. Here's RAH's discussion about next week(..not the late week possibility). IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO "BACKDOOR" OUR REGIONSUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE OVER EASTERN NCEARLY MONDAY... THEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL IN THE FORECAST FORTEMPERATURES AS IT SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSUREOVER THE MID-WEST (1030+ MB). CURRENT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THEMEAN TIMING WOULD PLACE THE BOUNDARY INTO SC BY 12Z MONDAY. IF THISOCCURS... P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. THE DEPTH ANDSTRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR THIS FAR OUT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.WE WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS CONTINUITY AND KEEP ALLLIQUID FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER... HIGHS MAY STAY INTHE 30S/40S MONDAY NORTH TO SOUTH.YET ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN BACK TO THEREGION LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AGAIN... P-TYPE MAY BECOME MOREOF A CONCERN IF THE COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS PER SOME MODELSOLUTIONS... EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE SW-NE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS... WITH MILLER TYPE B SURFACE DEVELOPMENTOFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC WED. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR AGAINEXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. -BADGETT&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Should we start a separate thread for next week? Looks like two possibly big events. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You're lying again. There is 20 out of 50 ensemble members showing significant snow in Charlotte. Yeah he likes to be mr pessimistic with everything. If you remember he said winter was basically over about 2 weeks ago. Guess he didn't realize winter was going to bite him in the a$$ come late January through February. He hugs every warm non winter forecast he can find Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You're lying again. There is 20 out of 50 ensemble members showing significant snow in Charlotte. 1) I don't think he is. 2) Depends on what you mean by "significant". I think 6"+ is significant. 11/50 are 6"+ 6/50 are 2-6" 17/50 are below 2" ~17/50 not even a trace so more than 50% are less than 2" and the mean doesn't even hit 3" when the deterministic hits 7". In my opinion that's not support for a significant snow, just support of maybe some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 what has been pretty remarkable is all the medium range warm ups the models have shown over the course of the past two months have been consistantly cut back as we get closer to the time period. The 6z GFS is now showing 8-12 degress below normal at 6z on 2/7 for much of the SE so basically we have a 4-5 day "warm" period starting this weekend then it is right back in the freezer based on the GFS. As Robert has been tweeting this morning and Don S. has been saying we are about to head into a pretty active period where we should see the southern jet become more active and the storm track be one favorable for some pretty good winter storms for at least the MW, MA, and upper SE in the next 2 weeks or so. I for one am pretty excited. Edit: I meant sub-tropical jet when I referenced the southern jet but whatevers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 1) I don't think he is. 2) Depends on what you mean by "significant". I think 6"+ is significant. 11/50 are 6"+ 6/50 are 2-6" 17/50 are below 2" ~17/50 not even a trace so more than 50% are less than 2" and the mean doesn't even hit 3" when the deterministic hits 7". In my opinion that's not support for a significant snow, just support of maybe some snow. Significant is anything over an inch in my opinion. Look at what just this little "dusting" and "bust" did to local businesses. Let's not even bring up ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Significant is anything over an inch in my opinion. Look at what just this little "dusting" and "bust" did to local businesses. Let's not even bring up ATL. Fair enough I guess I'm spoiled living at RDU most of my life. Definitely different opinions on what significant means, overall I don't think the ensembles support a huge storm, though. At least not like the last storm. We'll see though, I'll buy it inside 200 with a mean closer to OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Should we start a separate thread for next week? Looks like two possibly big events. Too early in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I agree. This is the prefect place for the disco right now. Too early in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Significant is anything over an inch in my opinion. Look at what just this little "dusting" and "bust" did to local businesses. Let's not even bring up ATL. Fair enough I guess I'm spoiled living at RDU most of my life. Definitely different opinions on what significant means, overall I don't think the ensembles support a huge storm, though. At least not like the last storm. We'll see though, I'll buy it inside 200 with a mean closer to OP. You must have forgotten what happened in Raleigh in 05. That was only a couple of inches and it was just like what Atlanta just went through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Too early in my opinion. Okay. Looks like we have a lot to watch in the next coupld of weeks. A coupld of threats next week, and the week after that looks juicy, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I agree. This is the prefect place for the disco right now.Agree! Don't you dare start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Significant is anything over an inch in my opinion. Look at what just this little "dusting" and "bust" did to local businesses. Let's not even bring up ATL. Fair enough I guess I'm spoiled living at RDU most of my life. Definitely different opinions on what significant means, overall I don't think the ensembles support a huge storm, though. At least not like the last storm. We'll see though, I'll buy it inside 200 with a mean closer to OP. You must have forgotten what happened in Raleigh in 05. That was only a couple of inches and it was just like what Atlanta just went through. Yes, I remember. I'm not talking economic/school closing. I'm talking significant as in a lot of snow more than we usually get per storm significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The track of this late week/early 2nd week Feb system is horrible for a KCAE snow. Upstate and Northen GA into NC could do okay from it though. If it's real. EPS members are starting to get on board. 35+ for greenville sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What is so astounding to me about the cold stretch in the LR on the 6z GFS this morning are the subzero lows it forecasts while the 850mb temp is between 0 and -10C (!). That's some super dry air the HP is funneling down if that's the case. Also figure it's accounting for snow on the ground as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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