GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thanks, Justin, but that would take the fun out of it. Wouldn't it be better if it is left as a mystery? That being said, I just checked the brand new GFS ensemble mean (0Z) and it has a CAD/Miller B'ish storm for ~2/7-8. I then decided to check other ensemble runs. The prior three GFS ens. means all had a CAD storm at about the same time! Not only that but the last two euro ens. means and CMC ens. means also had it for ~2/7-8! edit: WxInCanton, yep, that's the one! Now we can ad the 0Z THU Euro to the list of runs giving some or all of the SE CAD areas a sig. to major ZR during 2/7-8! This is already starting to get a little scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Now we can ad the 0Z THU Euro to the list of runs giving some or all of the SE CAD areas a sig. to major ZR during 2/7-8! This is already starting to get a little scary. The model consensus and consistency is amazing this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Anyone have the 0Z euro map they can post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I remember 03 being a huge sleet storm. We narrowly missed a 2nd crippling ice storm in 3 years. They predicted huge ZR storm for us instead we had 4 inches of sleet. Plowing it wasvfun seeing sleet pellets roll while plowling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So its safe to say that most of the se outside of the mountains and cad areas won't see anymore wintry precip this winterr.. as long as I get a good storm next month when I take my vacation to go skiing at snowshoe is all I care about.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 wow euro is a huge storm. woof. this may a chase back home to hickory if the euro is right lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 6z gfs looks like one big, bad zr event next weekend. How unusual is this agreement between models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 One thing that gives me hope that this could turn from a ZR storm to more of a snow storm is just how the models have handled the cold this year in general. Already you can see on the models just from a few days ago that the cold is coming in a hair sooner and staying for longer. The models have not done well when in depicting how long the PV stays south. That would push everything south. If it can stay south we have a good shot at avoiding the crippling ice storms being depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Surprisingly good agreement on the potential for a winter storm somewhere in the region Day 8-9. GFS and Euro strongly indicating that. That is one to watch. I also think the colder CAD areas need to watch Tuesday. Pronounced CAD signature with that system as well with the Canadian being the coldest. Here's the SFC temps Tuesday afternoon off of last night's Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So its safe to say that most of the se outside of the mountains and cad areas won't see anymore wintry precip this winterr.. as long as I get a good storm next month when I take my vacation to go skiing at snowshoe is all I care about.... I wouldn't rule out the other areas just yet. The arctic air that has been available this winter, has been impressive and anything is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 One thing that gives me hope that this could turn from a ZR storm to more of a snow storm is just how the models have handled the cold this year in general. Already you can see on the models just from a few days ago that the cold is coming in a hair sooner and staying for longer. The models have not done well when in depicting how long the PV stays south. That would push everything south. If it can stay south we have a good shot at avoiding the crippling ice storms being depicted.I definitely know better than to be looking at accumulations at this point, especially after what we just went through; but the below accumulation map can be used more for indicating how the models are depicting the pattern. So here is the 6z GFS accumulation may. **also noticed the 30 degree dew point temp never gets west of RDU, definite CAD signature. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/01/30/06/GFS_3_2014013006_F228_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just looked at the 06z run of the GFS and the 2/8 storm is a beast. It shows temps below freezing during the entire event. Starting as snow with .55" of precip falling before 850's get to zero. Then a substantial period of sleet and possibly some freezing rain with another .82" falling followed by an inch of snow as a cap. Then temps falling to 0 degrees F after the storm. Wow......just another run-of-the-mill HECS. It also shows temps below freezing for a solid week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 6z gfs looks like one big, bad zr event next weekend. How unusual is this agreement between models? In addition to the 6z GFS having a severe ZR 2/7-8, the 6z GEFS is still another ens. run with the same CAD threat. Remarkable consistency for this far in advance. Also, the 0Z CDN and Euro ensemble means clearly show the same 2/7-8 ZR threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 In addition to the 6z GFS having a severe ZR 2/7-8, the 6z GEFS is still another ens. run with the same CAD threat. Remarkable consistency for this far in advance. Also, the 0Z CDN and Euro ensemble means clearly show the same 2/7-8 ZR threat. Yep, the CAD is extremely evident on the ensemble means even. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thats all Atlanta needs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thats all Atlanta needs.. Feel free to elaborate based on the models what you think may happen in ATL and why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Surprisingly good agreement on the potential for a winter storm somewhere in the region Day 8-9. GFS and Euro strongly indicating that. That is one to watch. I also think the colder CAD areas need to watch Tuesday. Pronounced CAD signature with that system as well with the Canadian being the coldest. Here's the SFC temps Tuesday afternoon off of last night's Canadian. GEM.png CMC looked downright nasty for Tuesday. I'm hoping it's off like it usually is but even the GFS and Euro were close to a solution like that. If the CMC verified there would be a lot of folks without power as it looked to me like a pure ZR event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thats all Atlanta needs.. What does this comment really add to the discussion? Whether they need it or not, if it happens, it happens. Incredible cold coming down the pipe if the 06Z GFS is to be believed. According to Meteostar, beyond truncation, Hickory never gets above 33 F for the entire period with multiple chances for wintry precipitation. In fact, there are two instances, where the 06Z GFS is predicting that Hickory would fall below 0 F. Like Marion posted in the Arctic thread, this is the fourth morning in Hickory for which temperatures have fallen into the single digits. The cold this winter is amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 20 out of 50 euro ensembles agree on 4" or more of snow for Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 CMC looked downright nasty for Tuesday. I'm hoping it's off like it usually is but even the GFS and Euro were close to a solution like that. If the CMC verified there would be a lot of folks without power as it looked to me like a pure ZR event. Yes it did. Looking at the extracted data, the 2m temp in GSO on the 6z GFS is at 32 from 18z to 21z Tuesday. 29-31 in Mt. Airy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Feel free to elaborate based on the models what you think may happen in ATL and why. What I have seen on meteostar are insane amounts of QPF for Atlanta with temps well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What does this comment really add to the discussion? Whether they need it or not, if it happens, it happens. Incredible cold coming down the pipe if the 06Z GFS is to be believed. According to Meteostar, beyond truncation, Hickory never gets above 33 F for the entire period with multiple chances for wintry precipitation. In fact, there are two instances, where the 06Z GFS is predicting that Hickory would fall below 0 F. Like Marion posted in the Arctic thread, this is the fourth morning in Hickory for which temperatures have fallen into the single digits. The cold this winter is amazing! If this verified over the next 2 weeks, esp the cold that follows, this winter would go down in winter folklore for a long time to come. Just by how cold it's been, almost wall to wall since mid Nov with the exception of 2 warm spells in Dec. Hopefully we can make some history. Hasn't happened yet, but if it did it will be comical looking back at all our doom and gloom of how we where headed for another crappy winter 3 years in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What does this comment really add to the discussion? Whether they need it or not, if it happens, it happens. Incredible cold coming down the pipe if the 06Z GFS is to be believed. According to Meteostar, beyond truncation, Hickory never gets above 33 F for the entire period with multiple chances for wintry precipitation. In fact, there are two instances, where the 06Z GFS is predicting that Hickory would fall below 0 F. Like Marion posted in the Arctic thread, this is the fourth morning in Hickory for which temperatures have fallen into the single digits. The cold this winter is amazing! Calc, I did KAVL & they are much warmer in the second period. Don't have time to look at the models but, I wonder what the cause of this is....any ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just looking at the GFS, it now looks like the "warm period" will only last one day or so before the possible CAD sets up. Again this is an example of the warm not being able to influence our weather as much as initially modeled (from days before). Interesting winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Day 9/10 Euro ENS mean matches up well with the Op, it's a little more SE than the Op, looks like it tracks the SLP from the panhandle to right over Hatteras, verbatim only cold enough for the foothills and mountains. The control run matches up well too. Looks likely to be a big one, right now odds favor western NC up through the MA and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Calc, I did KAVL & they are much warmer in the second period. Don't have time to look at the models but, I wonder what the cause of this is....any ideas? My first guess, without looking at any maps, would be that there must be high pressure areas in the usual spots to funnel the cold arctic air down the eastern side of the Apps. Hickory is very susceptible to CAD events, but Asheville (at least at the airport) is not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Day 9/10 Euro ENS mean matches up well with the Op, it's a little more SE than the Op, looks like it tracks the SLP from the panhandle to right over Hatteras, verbatim only cold enough for the foothills and mountains. The control run matches up well too. Looks likely to be a big one, right now odds favor western NC up through the MA and NE. Considering it's so far out, I would not take those surface temps too seriously. The setup looks incredible so I would expect it to be very cold. Amazing model agreement though for so far out which sure makes you take notice of it a lot more than you normally would for being so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Also to note, off Meto, for KFQD, I see a total of .39" during the following time period: Tue at 15Z till Wed at 12Z <next week which is about 129 hours away Highest 2M temp is mid to lower 30's with 850's around 0 during that time period. What does this comment really add to the discussion? Whether they need it or not, if it happens, it happens. Incredible cold coming down the pipe if the 06Z GFS is to be believed. According to Meteostar, beyond truncation, Hickory never gets above 33 F for the entire period with multiple chances for wintry precipitation. In fact, there are two instances, where the 06Z GFS is predicting that Hickory would fall below 0 F. Like Marion posted in the Arctic thread, this is the fourth morning in Hickory for which temperatures have fallen into the single digits. The cold this winter is amazing! Also, Meto is dropping .85" at HR228 off the 06Z GFS with a 2M temp of 29. Great to have a few systems to track. Awesome disco last night folks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 jeesh this all snuck up while watching the storm we just had lol. i cant believe there is something else on the horizon (but i sure aint complainin') as we have talked about, patterns do tend to repeat, and after what just happened as long as there is any of this cold air we have been getting this winter lurking about i wouldnt discount anything. the indexes etc. may not look great, but who cares if we get another dixie storm? we have had a couple of ice storms sort of forecasted but none has really played out since dec 05 around here (i am talking anything over .25") and wtih this dense cold air i wouldnt be surprised to get an overrunning cad event. my guess is all that will be needed is a 20% of .10" freezing rain and the entire state of ga will shut down before we even see a drop lol as long as we have this colder air coming in i say lets get what we can while the getting is good it realistically cant last forever, and once it pops up north of us again we might not see if for a while I was thinking the same thing this morning. I bet if there is even a tiny chance of ice or snow the rest of the winter, cities and the state will go into crisis mode long before it hits and people will be freaking out in the media. I can't imagine how much hysteria there would be by the media if there was indeed an impending huge ice or snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 06 GFS looked nasty even here and I'm on the edge of huge CAD zone. Y'all can take this one to the bank since I have a room booked in Asheville for the weekend for my wife's surprise birthday getaway. Non refundable too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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