HKY_WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Euro ENS mean is an App's runner for day 7-8 that tracks NE to right over Boston. I would think that would be a good track for central/west TN. it's the one after that, but to be honest as we get closer i could see it merging into one huge overrunning event via multiple impulses. reminds me of PD2 in a lot of ways, just based on setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This can be moved to banter if need be and has no scientific backing. As I have been listening to people on here list specific dates and talk about big snows or ice events from the past, many have spoken of prior events in the same year, I. E on x date in 73 , X city received 4 inches of sleet, 8 days before that they received 2 inches of snow. Just reiterating the possibility of the pattern of repeating as others have said. So I think this is a legit threat for this time period with all big models having a storm of some fashion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 it's the one after that, but to be honest as we get closer i could see it merging into one huge overrunning event via multiple impulses. reminds me of PD2 in a lot of ways, just based on setup. Would prefer a PD1 redux but you take what you're given around here I do agree that this one has strong signals out front. Someone is very likely to get something significant out of it. I'd like to see more of a 50/50 low build out to keep the cold in place longer and force the low to trek farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 At least for a while, the pattern looks to favor the Mid Atlantic and NE moreso than the SE. I agree about the 50/50. The signal is there for a storm, but IMO the risk is greater for a warmer solution as opposed to a colder one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'll always remember PD II because it was an epic sleet storm here (unless that sleet storm was another event, but I think it was PD II?). That's the only time I've ever experienced something like that. With that being said, I agree with Wow. Let's do PD I over and give me my 10-20", thank you very much! I noticed the CFS show a decent pattern for February, IMO. Slightly below average temperatures with well above average precipitation. No doubt it's a better pattern for the Mid-Atlantic, but some of us can still do well in such a pattern, especially in northern and/or western NC. It could be a good pattern for CAD, but we haven't had a legit CAD storm in years now...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 WOW, Do you see a 50/50 on the horizon? If so, I'm missing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'll always remember PD II because it was an epic sleet storm here (unless that sleet storm was another event, but I think it was PD II?). That's the only time I've ever experienced something like that. I noticed the CFS show a decent pattern for February, IMO. Slightly below average temperatures with well above average precipitation. No doubt it's a better pattern for the Mid-Atlantic, but some of us can still do well in such a pattern, especially in northern and/or western NC. It could be a good pattern for CAD, but we haven't had a legit CAD storm in years now...... James, what do you look at for the CFS? I go to the main page, click on the link at the bottom for Monthly Forecast (or whatever it's called) and look at the latest US Temp Probability map (the last column of data). But I noticed that Mitchnick posted a CFS map today that looked different than any temp map I could find on that page (different in that it looked colder than the 1/29 Feb 2m temp probability or anomaly maps). And now you said you're seeing better temps than what I saw. Just curious.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 James, what do you look at for the CFS? I go to the main page, click on the link at the bottom for Monthly Forecast (or whatever it's called) and look at the latest US Temp Probability map (the last column of data). But I noticed that Mitchnick posted a CFS map today that looked different than any temp map I could find on that page (different in that it looked colder than the 1/29 Feb 2m temp probability or anomaly maps). And now you said you're seeing better temps than what I saw. Just curious.... Well, I usually look on WeatherBell. However, I also saw it posted in the Mid-Atlantic forum (I love reading their threads for comic relief, haha). EDIT: Oh, yeah, I see this was the map you were talking about Mitchnick posted. This looks identical to the one on WeatherBell, so I really don't know, man. I generally think the CFS is awful, though, so I wouldn't make too much of it, personally. Nevertheless, it looks like it shows you and I 1-2C below average with a liquid anomaly of >1"+ for the month. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42601-february-mediumlong-range-disco/page-7#entry2698894 The 500 mb pattern is kind of meh, but it might be decent for overrunning or CAD events. Then the SE ridge comes into full force in March and we torch for the rest of the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Would prefer a PD1 redux but you take what you're given around here I do agree that this one has strong signals out front. Someone is very likely to get something significant out of it. I'd like to see more of a 50/50 low build out to keep the cold in place longer and force the low to trek farther south. Yea, at this point i hate even commenting on specifics, but hey why not. The pattern looks pretty good in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well, I usually look on WeatherBell. However, I also saw it posted in the Mid-Atlantic forum (I love reading their threads for comic relief, haha). EDIT: Oh, yeah, I see this was the map you were talking about Mitchnick posted. This looks identical to the one on WeatherBell, so I really don't know, man. I generally think the CFS is awful, though, so I wouldn't make too much of it, personally. Nevertheless, it looks like it shows you and I 1-2C below average with a liquid anomaly of >1"+ for the month. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42601-february-mediumlong-range-disco/page-7#entry2698894 The 500 mb pattern is kind of meh, but it might be decent for overrunning or CAD events. Then the SE ridge comes into full force in March and we torch for the rest of the spring. Thanks man. That's the map I saw in the MA forum. It is different than the one on the CFS site for the same date, allegedly. I can't figure out why they're different. Oh well. I agree with you about the reliability of the model. Trends are more important to me than the face value prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thanks man. That's the map I saw in the MA forum. It is different than the one on the CFS site for the same date, allegedly. I can't figure out why they're different. Oh well. I agree with you about the reliability of the model. Trends are more important to me than the face value prog. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/ It depends on which ensemble you choose (E1, E2, E3). The 1st ensebmle (E1) is from the earliest 10 days, the 2nd ensemble (E2) from the second earliest 10 days, and 3rd ensemble (E3) from the latest 10 days. The one pictured in this thread is E3, so the ensemble using the most current initial conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Is E1, E2, and E3 so that you can follow the trend? Are these issued every 10 days? If so, I assume in 10 days, E3 becomes E2? Thanks, TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Help me out, guys. PD1? PD2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Help me out, guys. PD1? PD2?Presidents Day1&2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Presidents Day1&2 Thanks. What years are we talking? Or should I just peruse the Past Events page on the Raleigh NWS site until I can match up President's Day with a big storm report? I admittedly feel quite ashamed that these storms don't stick out in my mind immediately by name alone. Nevermind, I found the answer in the Banter Thread. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I think those talking about a repeating pattern are legit. I know often here when we have a moderate event it is followed by an even bigger one. Jan 2000 is the bbiggest example, but I am sure there are lots of others. WxSouth posted today we might be entering the repeating pattern of Occtober and November where is was cool and rainy. I remember then it seemed like we got rain every weekend for over a month. WxSouth said February could be stormy and explained why the southern ridge might be overblown on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thanks. What years are we talking? Or should I just peruse the Past Events page on the Raleigh NWS site until I can match up President's Day with a big storm report? I admittedly feel quite ashamed that these storms don't stick out in my mind immediately by name alone. Nevermind, I found the answer in the Banter Thread. Thanks. PD1 is Feb 1979 ... big snow for SE up into the NE PD2 is Feb 2003 ... icy parts of NC but huge snow for the MA/NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'd like to thank you, as well. You're adorable. I do, however, have my rubber band gun at the ready. 2/7 is not going to work for me. Peach, I think I'd pay to see that show I'm worried about zr too, but I need to be close to the beast to get my sleet. This stuff on the ground is worthless for sledding unless I was in Atl. Down here the roads were clear last night, and even tonight the stuff won't crust over. I've been relegated to 16 degree bubble making I won't mind up to a half inch of zr, if I can get 2 inches of sleet on top, or verse visa, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 it's the one after that, but to be honest as we get closer i could see it merging into one huge overrunning event via multiple impulses. reminds me of PD2 in a lot of ways, just based on setup. That's kind of what I was thinking this last one was going to do for a while. The filling out and going north part just went beyond my expectations I though it would blend with the weekend one and shoot out impulses that would ebb and flow up here from time to time. Without blocking it just seems to want to be as you describe, which could be really interesting. Lots of ice down here...sleety, I'd hope. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I remember 03 being a huge sleet storm. We narrowly missed a 2nd crippling ice storm in 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I remember 03 being a huge sleet storm. We narrowly missed a 2nd crippling ice storm in 3 years. Yeah I remember the models were showing a big ice/mix event until it trended north in the last 2 or 3 days. Don't recall getting much of anything. I was in Raleigh at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 0z GFS still showing an ice event for the CAD areas of the NC/VA piedmont on 2/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 0z GFS still showing an ice event for the CAD areas of the NC/VA piedmont on 2/4. Kind of reminds me of the early/mid Dec ice storm for the western part of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I understand it'll lose it eventually but the GFS has had this storm for next Weekend for damn near 6 model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I understand it'll lose it eventually but the GFS has had this storm for next Weekend for damn near 6 model runs. Yep, another ZR is on the 0Z GFS for the CAD regions within the 2/7-8 period. The signal is starting to get a little stronger. Let's see if this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I understand it'll lose it eventually but the GFS has had this storm for next Weekend for damn near 6 model runs. I don't think it will lose the storm, but the track will change from what's being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yep, another ZR is on the 0Z GFS for the CAD regions within the 2/7-8 period. The signal is starting to get a little stronger. Let's see if this continues. You want to go ahead and predict something so we know what will take place when it comes around? You nailed this last event pretty freaking well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yep, another ZR is on the 0Z GFS for the CAD regions within the 2/7-8 period. The signal is starting to get a little stronger. Let's see if this continues. I'm guessing this is the one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You want to go ahead and predict something so we know what will take place when it comes around? You nailed this last event pretty freaking well! Thanks, Justin, but that would take the fun out of it. Wouldn't it be better if it is left as a mystery? That being said, I just checked the brand new GFS ensemble mean (0Z) and it has a CAD/Miller B'ish storm for ~2/7-8. I then decided to check other ensemble runs. The prior three GFS ens. means all had a CAD storm at about the same time! Not only that but the last two euro ens. means and CMC ens. means also had it for ~2/7-8! edit: WxInCanton, yep, that's the one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thanks, Justin, but that would take the fun out of it. Wouldn't it be better if it is left as a mystery? That being said, I just checked the brand new GFS ensemble mean (0Z) and it has a CAD/Miller B'ish storm for ~2/7-8. I then decided to check other ensemble runs. The prior three GFS ens. means all had a CAD storm at about the same time! Not only that but the last two euro ens. means and CMC ens. means also had it for ~2/7-8! edit: WxInCanton, yep, that's the one! Sounds like we may need to begin honing in on that time period as a possible threat! Not going to lie though, this last storm wore me out. I was watching on here constantly for the 3 days prior to it. It felt good to watch it over perform a bit after all the hopes and prayers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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