Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

[mackerel_sky]

Looks like nice blocking as well! If we want out of this pattern and get some snow, I thing that's a look that would do the job!

[tnweathernut]

Looks like any blocking that does form on the euro is fairly weak and transitory. Fits the pattern we have been in.

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[mackerel_sky]

GSP afternoon discussion mentions 3 light wintry events: the Thursday night event, a nwf event for mtns, and one more possibility for sat night / sun! I guess with all that cold air up north, anythings possible

[GaWx]

More shares and historic ECMWF imagery fortelling of Frigid Cold from Bastardi on Twitter

ECWMF brings Siberian origin vortex to Great lakes day 9. Similar to severe 1994 outbreak at same time,we referenced http://t.co/VnglMc5EqI

ECMWF has 5k air near -50C poised to come into US in 168 hrs. Dont ever recall seeing that cold at 850mb http://t.co/k7ItsUgSvA

 

 

 Fwiw (since it is out at 174 hours), the above 174 hour 12Z 12/29 Euro 850 mb map is, indeed, frigid and wouldn't be far from the coldest I could recall at 850 mb in SW Canada if it should happen to verify. However, just for the record, the coldest on it is -43.6 C (in far western Saskatchewan), which is how it is labeled (see the red print just above the map where it says "domain min/max"). JB is calling it "nearly -50 C". Is -43.6 C considered to be "near -50 C"? Being that -43.6 would itself be pretty close to unprecedented cold, I think he's going overboard in calling it "near -50 C" and is hyping some. If he had, instead, called it nearly -45 C, that would have been more appropriate in my opinion since ~-45 C is probably about as cold as I've ever seen in SW Canada. It will be interesting to see how good or bad this 174 hour prediction verifies. It has certainly been frigid in much of Canada and the GFS has it getting down into the high -30's then..so not too far different. Also, there is another frigid airmass that is predicted by the GFS/Euro to get down to near -41 at 72 hours over western Quebec!! So, it wouldn't be shocking if it did approach -45 C at around hours 168-174 for the coldest in SW Canada.

[Shack]

I know many on here are ready to write off the Thur/Fri event, but the GFS op at 84hrs pops a low over the AL/GA line. It quickly goes away, but look at the other one it pops in the gulf at 93hr.

And if you'll look at the trend of the gulf precipitation shields steady northern movement (Take a look and compare last nights 00z and todays 18z centered on Thur at 15z), it would seem that this may still bear fruit for someone.

 

And yes, I know its the 18z GFS.

[GaWx]

I know many on here are ready to write off the Thur/Fri event, but the GFS op at 84hrs pops a low over the AL/GA line. It quickly goes away, but look at the other one it pops in the gulf at 93hr.

And if you'll look at the trend of the gulf precipitation shields steady northern movement (Take a look and compare last nights 00z and todays 18z centered on Thur at 15z), it would seem that this may still bear fruit for someone.

 

And yes, I know its the 18z GFS.

 

 Your point is well taken, but the cold air, which had been prevalent just to the north on 1/2, is no longer nearby as the trend has been warmer. So, it would appear that any precip. would likely be liquid for most. There's no longer a Midwest centered 1040+ mb high to provide the cold air as was shown on the Euro runs just two days ago.

[dsaur]

I'm with you Shack.  Any time there is an old front, or weakness down there with cold and dry coming down,  I'm paying attention.  That moisture in the Gulf has been down there, or up here, or in between for days with  some on and off interaction with the short wave coming down with the cold.  It washes out, it amps up, and get suppressed, but it doesn't go completely away.  The gfs even inside 3 days has been all over the place.  I'll just watch and wait.  I got near 2 inches of rain when Goofy said 3 days ago I'd see nothing for 10 days.  I think watching radar is more accurate than watching models inside 3 days....and outside 3 days is just silly except for hints in the mist.  T

[Shack]

 Your point is well taken, but the cold air, which had been prevalent just to the north on 1/2, is no longer nearby as the trend has been warmer. So, it would appear that any precip. would likely be liquid for most. There's no longer a Midwest centered 1040+ mb high to provide the cold air as was shown on the Euro runs just two days ago.

Yes, I agree.  Not likely to see that 1040 show up in the next model run, either. But being the mere model-watcher that I am, I simply notice that the little, thin, blue line is closer to the big, blue, blob at 18z than at 00z.

 

Like a little boy, trying to get up the nerve to ask the little blonde haired girl standing across the room to dance.

He gets up, (00z)walks about two steps, turns around and walks back and sits down.

Then he gets up, (12z)walks about four steps, loses his nerve and turns around again.

Once again, he gets up(18z) and walks about six steps......

 

 

Highly technical analysis for a country boy, like me.

[Met1985]

18z seems to take a step in the direction of the Euro with a big arctic high coming down from Canada. I know it is hard to believe from some peoples stand points but the Euro could be onto something.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

All 3 of the major indices at this moment in time are near zero. Where they go from here is going to tell us what to expect for the next 2 weeks. There are a multitude of possibilities and I wouldn't rule out any of them right now.

[Met1985]

All 3 of the major indices at this moment in time are near zero. Where they go from here is going to tell us what to expect for the next 2 weeks. There are a multitude of possibilities and I wouldn't rule out any of them right now.

One thing I think works for us is that the WPO and the EPO look to tank come first of January and with blocking showing up in the Arctic I dont know why we could not see another major arctic outbreak in the Eastern half of the country.

[GaWx]

18z seems to take a step in the direction of the Euro with a big arctic high coming down from Canada. I know it is hard to believe from some peoples stand points but the Euro could be onto something.

 

 A big high and severe cold coming into the N plains and N Rockies is plausible to me based on the prevailing pattern. However, the 12Z Euro then never weakens the high on its way to the OH Valley, which is rare per climo. Also, th Euro has been consistently overdoing highs over the Midwest/NE. However, the 18Z GFS does weaken it about 5 mb, which to me is more believable.

[Met1985]

 A big high and severe cold coming into the N plains and N Rockies is plausible to me based on the prevailing pattern. However, the 12Z Euro then never weakens the high on its way to the OH Valley, which is rare per climo. Also, th Euro has been consistently overdoing highs over the Midwest/NE. However, the 18Z GFS does weaken it about 5 mb, which to me is more believable.

Oh I agree Larry just seeing similarities in both models under 200 hours.

[Bsudweather]

The 18z GFS looks close to showing something around next Monday. As far as here in the upstate it had the zero line down to I85.

[mackerel_sky]

A big high and severe cold coming into the N plains and N Rockies is plausible to me based on the prevailing pattern. However, the 12Z Euro then never weakens the high on its way to the OH Valley, which is rare per climo. Also, th Euro has been consistently overdoing highs over the Midwest/NE. However, the 18Z GFS does weaken it about 5 mb, which to me is more believable.

Doesn't a big high coming in through Montana and the Rockies just gonna drop straight south into TX and maybe never get in to the SE ? Or is the ridge being gone gonna let the cold come all the way SE?

[burgertime]

The 18z GFS looks close to showing something around next Monday. As far as here in the upstate it had the zero line down to I85.

 

Looks like a frontal passage to me. Don't be tricked by truncation. Would more than likely just move on out and not blow up as it shows. 

[Met1985]

Doesn't a big high coming in through Montana and the Rockies just gonna drop straight south into TX and maybe never get in to the SE ? Or is the ridge being gone gonna let the cold come all the way SE?

Well there is a ridge that pops on the West coast and is depends on were the PV is positioned

[NCSNOW]

All 3 of the major indices at this moment in time are near zero. Where they go from here is going to tell us what to expect for the next 2 weeks. There are a multitude of possibilities and I wouldn't rule out any of them right now.[/quote

Maybe with all of them neutral isn't such a bad deal, especially considering this is the best climo time of year we are heading into.

[GaWx]

Doesn't a big high coming in through Montana and the Rockies just gonna drop straight south into TX and maybe never get in to the SE ? Or is the ridge being gone gonna let the cold come all the way SE?

 

 Actually, a lot of the SE's really severe coldwaves are produced by big MT or ND highs (say ~1045 mb+) whose center quickly plunges down well into TX. The high usually weakens ~10-20 mb from its high US point by the time it gets deep into TX. This allows the cold to get down fast enough so that it doesn't modify too much and it also gives the SE very cold NW winds in many cases on the front end of the cold high as the cold front plunges through. This is especially the case for many of FL's biggest advection freezes. In many cases the coldest air is to the right of the high's center due to good cold air advection. That makes it easier to have a really low high temp. However, for the coldest radiational cooling types of nights, it is usually best for the high to come down more SE than SSE and center itself over or near the SE US.

[WxJordan]

Well, it looks like it will be cool for the start of the new year; however, we warm up again by the weekend ahead of the next front. Temperatures warm up ahead of the front, but that may have been tempered due to a CAD threat.

 

After this front passes, it looks like we may see some very cold air. The question is how cold, and it could be a sharp boundary from temperatures in the teens and 30s across the southeast with the big push of cold air.

 

The mountains may have a couple of northwest snow chances; however, the chance of snow outside of the higher elevations are unlikely through the next ten days.

 

Overall a tranquil pattern with the weekend rain threat again.

[WxJordan]

Yay! I guess there's no use in looking at the weather for at least the next 10 days... Because after the next 10 days it will be the next 10 days and so on etc......  But appreciate the update. Just frustrated. lol 

 

I sure do understand the frustration, but you have to look at the pattern. The weather will definitely be fascinating to watch the next couple of days with the big push of cold air possible early next week, but if you are looking for snow, it's not looking good.

 

And like Powerstroke said, all it takes is one good track with cold air for a terrible winter to turn into a good winter. Personally, I do not think it has been too bad of a winter so far. Temperatures have been above average for December; however, we have had some good cold air outbreaks and a real close call with a storm. I am excited as we move into January.

[Pilotwx]

Looks like below normal temps, above normal rainfall . Sounds like a good receipt for snow any winter. But as usual there is always a but, but the cold and moisture don't arrive at right time. Since early Dec when models were showing an arctic blast my thought was we probably get overwhelmed with cold, and no moisture around when we need it . I think it will be about 2 weeks before we can get the players lined up. Pattern is a sort of reset mode yet to know which way it goes takes a while for these things to work them selfs out .

[BullCityWx]

I'm wondering about the potential for arctic front snow

[WxJordan]

I'm wondering about the potential for arctic front snow

 

It would not be impossible to get snow on the backside of an arctic front; however, it is very unlikely east of the mountains. Usually the moisture moves out before the cold air arrives, but sometimes it is able to hang on. I would say more times than not areas east of the mountains do not receive snow on the backside of an arctic front.

[superjames1992]

The GFS and Hi-Res NAM both placed a band of precipitation across the I-40 corridor in NC tomorrow evening.  Just something to watch.

[J.C.]

What cold air are you guys talking about?  I see a two below average days possibly Friday and Saturday, the rest of the week looks above average as usual.  Even Friday and Saturday aren't really that cold, am I missing something?

[GaWx]

0Z GFS has a 1061ish monster over central Alberta at hour 186 (18Z on 1/6)! Let's see where that monster high goes. It is aiming for the Rockies and Plains initially, but let's see what it does afterward.

[Poimen]

0Z GFS has a 1061ish monster over central Alberta at hour 186 (18Z on 1/6)! Let's see where that monster high goes. It is aiming for the Rockies and Plains initially, but let's see what it does afterward.

 

You beat me to it Larry. That will be the real deal mother load of arctic air if it is anywhere close to reality.

[BullCityWx]

What cold air are you guys talking about? I see a two below average days possibly Friday and Saturday, the rest of the week looks above average as usual. Even Friday and Saturday aren't really that cold, am I missing something?

Looks like it won't make it above freezing here for Friday. That's pretty darn cold.

[Met1985]

Looks like it won't make it above freezing here for Friday. That's pretty darn cold.

Ya looks like here in the mountains we may make a run at below zero for the first time in two years.