rduwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Remember all this winter we have been in a repeating pattern. It would def. not be out of the realm of possibility to get another good winter storm. In fact that seems to be the way it usually works in the south anyways lately in a favorable pattern. Personally I'm a little burnt out with model watching so I'm going to stay away and recharge for a few days. I can understand that...You put a lot into this storm. To be honest, I'm fine if the SE ridge showed up for a while. I ready for some warmer temps so I can get some outdoors time in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Remember all this winter we have been in a repeating pattern. It would def. not be out of the realm of possibility to get another good winter storm. In fact that seems to be the way it usually works in the south anyways lately in a favorable pattern. Personally I'm a little burnt out with model watching so I'm going to stay away and recharge for a few days. Good point Burger.....I see many opportunities during the later part of the extended. I think this winter is FAR FROM OVER.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The LR looks terrible for a widespread snow event until you get past 300 hr on the 6z GFS. Toward the end of the Euro, there is hope for a damming event. But with a -PNA and no -NAO, prepare for more rain. At least it doesn't look like an extended torch. Maybe after mid-month things will get their act together. The indexes all are forecast to suck. The CFS has backed off of the complete torch for the SE for Feb, but it doesn't look cold either. Don't know what else to say, except maybe, hopefully, the ensembles will look different. Somebody with access, please chime in if you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The LR looks terrible for a widespread snow event until you get past 300 hr on the 6z GFS. Toward the end of the Euro, there is hope for a damming event. But with a -PNA and no -NAO, prepare for more rain. At least it doesn't look like an extended torch. Maybe after mid-month things will get their act together. The indexes all are forecast to suck. The CFS has backed off of the complete torch for the SE for Feb, but it doesn't look cold either. Don't know what else to say, except maybe, hopefully, the ensembles will look different. Somebody with access, please chime in if you want. I don't know but I didn't think it looked too bad....I wouldn't worry too much beyond 240hrs anyway http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html This fall and winter has seen the pattern repeat itself time and time again.....yes, it will warm up some simply by the law of averages, but I'm pretty confident the SE will be in play during Feb and possibly into March.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I don't know but I didn't think it looked too bad....I wouldn't worry too much beyond 240hrs anyway http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html This fall and winter has seen the pattern repeat itself time and time again.....yes, it will warm up some simply by the law of averages, but I'm pretty confident the SE will be in play during Feb and possibly into March.... Yeah, I don't think I said it in a very good way. I don't like the looks of the pattern for a widespread all snow event. I think some areas could end up seeing some snow, but it looks more mixy to me. The Euro shows a good example of this at the end. The worrisome thing is how close it is at this point and we've seen highs modeled too strongly at this range all season. But verbatim, it has a wintry/icy look. I'm just not a big fan of a -PNA without a stong -NAO to go with it. It leads to disappointment most of the time. The GFS does offer some hope late, but like you said, it really isn't worth much. I'd love to see a strong -NAO signal show up toward mid month. That would allow more areas to get in play. Your area may have a better shot than mine in this pattern. Anyway, I do think most of us will see another chance or two before winter is out. I like the high pressure continuing to be shown in the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 By the way looking at the Euro I know it is painting widespread snow but that looks like a raging IP/ZR storm to me. SE ridge is strong. It could be a good damming situation but the progged highs are usually not as strong so I would be very cautious about this setup. We shall see though. Just skimming through, looked like at least some snow in northern NC with ice in southern NC (damming areas). But details are silly at this point, as we all know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Just skimming through, looked like at least some snow in northern NC with ice in southern NC (damming areas). But details are silly at this point, as we all know. I was basing it off of that 540 line being well to our north...like you said though it's pretty pointless right now. We know how many changes this last storm went through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I was basing it off of that 540 line being well to our north...like you said though it's pretty pointless right now. We know how many changes this last storm went through. Without a doubt. Yeah, I was surprised when I investigated a little further. 850s were 0 down to near I-40 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Without a doubt. Yeah, I was surprised when I investigated a little further. 850s were 0 down to near I-40 or so. Brad Panovich just posted a map with like 7 inches in CLT based off of the Euro...obviously overblown but yea potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Brad Panovich just posted a map with like 7 inches in CLT based off of the Euro...obviously overblown but yea potential there.14" for MBY and east to raleigh. lOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 14" for MBY and east to raleigh. lOL The Euro has become quite the long range GFS this year. It did pick up on this one before the GFS, although it had it as a big storm initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Brad P said in his post "The deterministic ECMWF model here is very aggressive, but also 30% of the ensembles have some snow as well." You can say that again. For Charlotte, ensemble mean barely passes 2" and the deterministic is 8", I'd say that's basically no support for a huge event and more support for a non-event. Yeah, 30% may have snow (or whatever WxBell is calling snow, I'd venture to guess it's more like IP) yet 14% of ensembles are over 6" Whatever the Euro is seeing with this big dog is going to be gone 12z I suspect. Ensemble temperatures are incredibly warm, much warmer than the OP (like 20 degrees off for RDU). Everyone wants to be first to mention a storm, gotta love social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The Euro has become quite the long range GFS this year. It did pick up on this one before the GFS, although it had it as a big storm initially. 6z gfs had a storm at the same time but looked a little north of the 0z euro which caused 850's to be to warm. I doubt this happens but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 198 on is a pretty massive overrunning snow/sleet/zr event on the euro verbatim. pretty much the entire state of nc down to the cad regions of sc/nc is below freezing at the sfc. has the look of a sleet event in the heart of the cad with freezing rain on the outskirts. pretty worthless to discuss details at this point, but since people were wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Fwiw, the last few GFS runs have been suggesting a SE US wintry precip. threat for ~2/8. Don't shoot the messenger, but the 6Z GFS literally shows a severe ZR storm for the main CAD areas 2/8, the very last thing ATL needs. Although we're about to leave the climo peak for a major ZR at ATL of late Jan., especially when ENSO is neutral negative, early Feb is close enough climo wise, especially since ATL has had several bad ones in early Feb. The current neutral negative ENSO says to stay extra alert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The GFS looks a little interesting around 132-150hrs or so at H5. Probably too warm at the surface verbatim, but I guess it could trend colder IF confluence is stonger in the NE. Of course, all of the energy dropping into the SW has absolutely NO trouble marching across the southern tier, merging with the northern stream. But if we had an arctic airmass in place...NO WAY would it do that. It also looks to build a -NAO out in time, but it looks of little help as the Pacific sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The LR looks terrible for a widespread snow event until you get past 300 hr on the 6z GFS. Toward the end of the Euro, there is hope for a damming event. But with a -PNA and no -NAO, prepare for more rain. At least it doesn't look like an extended torch. Maybe after mid-month things will get their act together. The indexes all are forecast to suck. The CFS has backed off of the complete torch for the SE for Feb, but it doesn't look cold either. Don't know what else to say, except maybe, hopefully, the ensembles will look different. Somebody with access, please chime in if you want. Step 10 has been achieved. 10. Someone will post that the 360 hour GFS looks interesting and send us all back to number 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Step 10 has been achieved. 10. Someone will post that the 360 hour GFS looks interesting and send us all back to number 1. I think Step 10 was achieved back in early November. By the way, your QPF divide by 2 algorithm was fairly close to reality this time. Taking the lowest modeled QPF and dividing by 2 will probably get it even closer. We'll go with that next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Anybody notice the change in 12z Nam and Hi res from last nights/ this morning? A decent westward shift with the remaining precip in the GOM in assoication with the front and ull from previous runs. But interestingly enough though its showing decent moisture and waa between 700 and 850mb for tomorrow night into Friday morning with freezing rain/drizzle potential from Columbia SC to Durham east over the coastal plain. From what I can tell gfs is not showing it... maybe a slight bump to the west on ggem. IF if the trends continue and we can get some icing probably help the Snowpack from sublimating/melting as quick. Sounding near Fayetteville, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Fwiw, the last few GFS runs have been suggesting a SE US wintry precip. threat for ~2/8. Don't shoot the messenger, but the 6Z GFS literally shows a severe ZR storm for the main CAD areas 2/8, the very last thing ATL needs. Although we're about to leave the climo peak for a major ZR at ATL of late Jan., especially when ENSO is neutral negative, early Feb is close enough climo wise, especially since ATL has had several bad ones in early Feb. The current neutral negative ENSO says to stay extra alert. Ga Wx, just wanted to say "Thank You" for all you do on american wx! Especially for raising the red flags from watching the models about a possible major winter event effecting the southeast folks around the 1/28 time frame a week or longer in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Man, the 12z Euro and 18z GFS do have nice fantasy storms in the D10 range. They may be gone tomorrow and I haven't paid a lick of attention to this period until now, but it is interesting. 12z canadian is also showing a storm around that time period with freezing rain for most cad areas after starting as snow. Interesting all 3 have a system of some form around that time period. I agree with others, I don't think the long range looks too bad. I've seen worse. Also of note is that huge torch the models were showing in the long range has vanished, at least for now. That appears to be the theme this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 No Euro pbp? Must be bad. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 No Euro pbp? Must be bad. TW It hasn't finished coming out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Ga Wx, just wanted to say "Thank You" for all you do on american wx! Especially for raising the red flags from watching the models about a possible major winter event effecting the southeast folks around the 1/28 time frame a week or longer in advance! Thank you very much, sir! Looking ahead, fwiw the 12Z Euro is showing a major ZR threat for 2/7. Don't shoot the messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Thank you very much, sir! Looking ahead, fwiw the 12Z Euro is showing a major ZR threat for 2/7. Don't shoot the messenger. I'd like to thank you, as well. You're adorable. I do, however, have my rubber band gun at the ready. 2/7 is not going to work for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Thank you very much, sir! Looking ahead, fwiw the 12Z Euro is showing a major ZR threat for 2/7. Don't shoot the messenger. Yes Sir, Larry you called this threat way ahead!!! Great analysis... Appreciate all you do on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'd like to thank you, as well. You're adorable. I do, however, have my rubber band gun at the ready. 2/7 is not going to work for me. Thanks, Peach but please put away the rubber band gun, too! I'm just your friendly messenger. The 12Z Euro fwiw has a severe ZR for at least the major CAD regions with as much as 1-1.5" of QPF in the CAD regions fwiw. Details are unimportant but they do show the potential, especially when considering that recent GFS runs have also been at least hinting at a threat. Also, we're in neutral negative ENSO, which is the ENSO phase that most favors major ZR's in N GA at least. Edit: Thank you, Big Frosty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Atlanta does not need a major ice storm just a week and a half away after this historic event unfolding here at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Atlanta does not need a major ice storm just a week and a half away after this historic event unfolding here at the moment. Of course it does. How else will it prove how much has been learned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Of course it does. How else will it prove how much has been learned? I LOVE your honesty. If our politicians thought more like you we would all be much better for it. You should consider a run for mayor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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