Jon Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Actually he said possibly never said it would happen. But propane is on a limited supply due to the amount used in NE. I could careless if he is right or not just saying been pretty accurate this winter. Now back to wish casting I, too, am a subscriber...so I saw this first hand. He did more than just say it was possible, he said it was incoming. I asked him to cite a major hurricane and gave him links to the economic values of each that hit the US to give us a number value, he didn't. It's the difference between a few million to billion+ Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Jan 16 week 1 evolves very cold.post on on why I think this has economic impact of big hurricane hit pic.twitter.com/ZJzAptIzmh Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Jan 15 I believe when totaled up, the economic impact of cold from Jan 20-Feb 5 on the US will be the winter equal of a major hurricane hit on US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 There is a propane state of emergency in WI and MI by the waynot to mention propane has gone thru the roof and we are burning 3 times as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Damn good to know putting "maybe" there let's anyone off the hook. HUGE BLIZZARD WILL maybe HIT CHARLOTTE AREA. I AM LITERALLY SHAKING RIGHT NOW. If any met here wrote that they would be laughed out of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Damn good to know putting "maybe" there let's anyone off the hook. HUGE BLIZZARD WILL maybe HIT CHARLOTTE AREA. I AM LITERALLY SHAKING RIGHT NOW. If any met here wrote that they would be laughed out of this forum. Nothing to worry about that will never happen there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I, too, am a subscriber...so I saw this first hand. He did more than just say it was possible, he said it was incoming. I asked him to cite a major hurricane and gave him links to the economic values of each that hit the US to give us a number value, he didn't. It's the difference between a few million to billion+ Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Jan 16 week 1 evolves very cold.post on on why I think this has economic impact of big hurricane hit pic.twitter.com/ZJzAptIzmh Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Jan 15 I believe when totaled up, the economic impact of cold from Jan 20-Feb 5 on the US will be the winter equal of a major hurricane hit on US This was from the first shot, but it does give an idea of the costs. The "polar vortex" that brought freezing temperatures to all 50 U.S. states began to subside slowly on Wednesday, leaving behind at least 21 dead and economic losses estimated at more than $5 billion. "We think that the problem will be short-lived, but we estimate it will cost about $5 billion because of the sheer size of the population affected - about 200 million people in the eastern two-thirds of the country," Evan Gold, vice president at business weather intelligence company Planalytics, said. He told NBC television that the impact would be apparent in a loss of productivity, reduced consumer spending and higher heating bills. EFE http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2014/01/08/us-cold-wave-leaves-21-dead-costs-economy-estimated-5-bn/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Has anybody looked at the LR on the GFS. After next weeks storm it has a very CADish look for many many days. It looks like cold rain at this point but is actually really close to be a major prolonged ice event for somebody(day 7 to 10). Then after that it looks cold with another SE (fantasy)winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Don S. posted his Feb thoughts in the main forum and is going above normal in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow' 18z gfs has CLT not getting above freezing from 3z on 1/28 until 18z on 2/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 After Wednesday , it can be sunny and 75 the rest of the winter! My heating bill and wallet would much appreciate that. JB said the other day that after about a week warm up starting this weekend that we would go back into the deep freeze!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The LR 0z GFS (around Day 10 or so) looks to build a fairly robust west-based -NAO, which would favor a cold and stormy look in the east. Anyone with ensemble access who would like to comment on the LR, please feel free to do so. The indicies look like crap in the LR, except the AO, which looks to remain negative for a while before trending positive very late. And the CFS is looking warmer and warmer for Feb in the SE. Plus, as I mentioned yesterday, Don S. is calling for a warmer than normal Feb in the SE...so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 while nobody was looking, the GFS is painting a significant ice storm in CAD regions for about a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 while nobody was looking, the GFS is painting a significant ice storm in CAD regions for about a week out. Yep, I had someone get my attention on that feature for next week. Given how we have had plenty of cold air and surface high's this winter, wouldn't rule it out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Feb 8th time frame looks interesting for frozen precip but not inside the 240hr time frame yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Might as well keep it going. 18z GFS showed a chance for zr in CAD areas for this coming Tues/Wed. Then there's another chance around the 8th with a southern stream storm. Finally, another chance of something at the end of the run. Seems there will be no shortage of moisture around and cold are will be lurking to the north. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Feb 8th time frame looks interesting for frozen precip but not inside the 240hr time frame yet. Doesn't mean a whole lot given the range, but the GFS has shown a system of some kind for three consecutive runs. At least it gives us something else to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks to me like there is excellent agreement among the global models for a possible Classic CAD setup to go along with a potent southern stream storm brewing deep in the gulf around the 240hr time range. This has definitely piqued my interest as the GFS,EURO, and CMC all show a similar pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 When we say CAD regions, we mean Upstate SC, far NE GA, and the mountains/foothills of NC, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 When we say CAD regions, we mean Upstate SC, far NE GA, and the mountains/foothills of NC, right? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/Newsletter/Winter%202004-05/P-Type.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The Euro has a pretty cold morning in E NC/SC Thu AM for those of you who keep the snow cover. Widespread 2m single digits and a pocket of below 0F in extreme NE NC. It should drop like a rock under that sfc high with snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks to me like there is excellent agreement among the global models for a possible Classic CAD setup to go along with a potent southern stream storm brewing deep in the gulf around the 240hr time range. This has definitely piqued my interest as the GFS,EURO, and CMC all show a similar pattern. Can you post maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Man, the 12z Euro and 18z GFS do have nice fantasy storms in the D10 range. They may be gone tomorrow and I haven't paid a lick of attention to this period until now, but it is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I think there are 3 times to watch for now. The first is this coming Tuesday, mainly for ice changing to rain. Then D10'ish for something with a little more cold air than next Tuesday. Then again around d15/16. Hopefully one of the 3 will work out. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 0z GFS keeps an event for NC about 264 hours out, though it looks a little further north than the previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The 00z Euro just hammered us on D9-10. Widespread 12"+ amounts all over NC. I'm having a weenie moment, but then it's D9... Well, that was according to the clown. 850s tell a different story, though the northern Piedmont and NW foothills might stay all snow (sleet south of there?), so we probably do get hammered with a once-in-20-year event. I love being in the bullseye at D9. It's sure to verify. Alright, time to pry myself away from the models and come back in a few days and see if it's still showing up in a week. Time to enjoy the snow I've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks to me like there is excellent agreement among the global models for a possible Classic CAD setup to go along with a potent southern stream storm brewing deep in the gulf around the 240hr time range. This has definitely piqued my interest as the GFS,EURO, and CMC all show a similar pattern. I've been watching that on goofy for a few days. I'm ready for a big sleet storm. This is still prime climo for it down here. And again after mid Feb. Just hope this isn't so big, cause it could be an ice storm easy, even if it moves north like this one did. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah. I saw where Allan Huffman was mentioning this possible event earlier. Too early to mention this but new Euro has another threat for snow in 10 days. Has some support http://models.americanwx.com pic.twitter.com/lsedDxmtX3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 06z GFS is looking very good in that 10-16 day range. Looks like we might have another potential on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Day 8 does look interesting. Lets see if the euro holds it for a few runs in a row, I know it was there on the 12z run. Temps are borderline at this time but we have time. 6z gfs also has the storm but temps are warmer due to the s/w being a little further north. It has peaked my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Remember all this winter we have been in a repeating pattern. It would def. not be out of the realm of possibility to get another good winter storm. In fact that seems to be the way it usually works in the south anyways lately in a favorable pattern. Personally I'm a little burnt out with model watching so I'm going to stay away and recharge for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 By the way looking at the Euro I know it is painting widespread snow but that looks like a raging IP/ZR storm to me. SE ridge is strong. It could be a good damming situation but the progged highs are usually not as strong so I would be very cautious about this setup. We shall see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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