Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

[griteater]

exactly! Which is why I would like to transition to a -pna. Without a southern stream we will have to take a -pna to get any storms.

Only thing I would say on that is that technically, a -PNA is an Aleutian ridge, a western North America trough, and ridging in the SE states.  I think where you are going with this franklin is to have a modified version of that where the Aleutian ridging is farther east, maybe just off the west coast, with the downstream trough pushed east, centered along the Rockies...with a big west -NAO block suppressing the storm track across the south....so not really a hard core -PNA, but some modified features of one.

[FallsLake]

6z GFS was interesting in the since that there is potential for a major overrunning situations out past day 10. There will be lots of moisture streaming across the south and a high somewhere to the north (...just looking at overall setup). Verbatim it looks just a little bit too warm but that has plenty of time to change (better or worse). After that(la la land) it show a very cold look with maybe some kind of storm off the SE coast, but that's fantasy right now.  

[Cold Rain]

Not a bad way to hit number 5000 (context coming):
 
 

[FallsLake]

Not a bad way to hit number 5000 (context coming):

 

 

Here's to another 5000! You definitely help keep the board interesting. Keep them coming.

[Cold Rain]

Thanks Falls!  So, as you said, the 6z GFS looked pretty good in the LR.  Verbatim the 850 line is north, but the 500 maps, while showing a bit of a -PNA and SE ridge for a time, would offer opportunities for damming and overrunning.  It also offers the opportunities for cutters.  Looks to turn cold again at the end.  The 0z GFS pretty much sucked.  Remarkably though, all of the majory guidance by 240 looks very similar -- a -PNA and a flat SE ridge.  The Euro is the coldest of the solutions at that time frame.

 

The CPC teleconnections look slightly better with the NAO not looking quite as positive in the LR, the AO looking more likely to stay negative (I'm talking to you, OPI), and the PNA looking to eventually go negative but with more spread.  That, along with what Jon posted is very encouraging for Feb.  I have no idea whether the -PNA/SE ridge combo will be transient or not, though I *suspect* it will be.  Also encouraging is seeing more hints of a -NAO show up in the guidance.  Also encouraging is that the PII index has spiked into very positive territory -- the highest values of the year so far.  Also encouraging are the continued trends of the CFS for Feb.

 

As I have said, I don't necessarily trust the CFS's forecast.  But I DO place some value on the trends.  Once again, the temp trend is colder still for Feb.  In fact, it's much colder than yesterday.  I can't imagine seeing a map that looks much colder than what this one shows.  It has to trend back the other way, right?  The precip map is similar to yesterday...maybe a little drier, with the exception of NC.

 

So without looking at the ensemble means, I continue to maintain a positive outlook for a cold and stormy February.  If we make it through this entire winter without a meaningful winter storm or two, it's probably time to quit following the weather.  But that'll be a moot point by the end of next week.  Speaking of which, Mr. P008 of the 6z GFS ensemble suite has the Cold Rain 48 hour storm.

[packbacker]

Might have already been posted, but WSI's latest writeup is interesting, need to re-read it as it's very technical…Essentially they see a 2 week breather for cold in the SE but see it coming back the last 3 weeks of Feb, although they do through a caveat at the end about how strong the SE ridge may become.

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-bitter-cold-weather-is-anticipated-to-continue-through-the-end-of-february/

[griteater]

Might have already been posted, but WSI's latest writeup is interesting, need to re-read it as it's very technical…Essentially they see a 2 week breather for cold in the SE but see it coming back the last 3 weeks of Feb, although they do through a caveat at the end about how strong the SE ridge may become.

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-bitter-cold-weather-is-anticipated-to-continue-through-the-end-of-february/

 

Thanks for posting.  That's the best write-up I've ever read that explains the multi-faceted aspects of the MJO...much more complex than just looking at the phase diagrams.  

[BullCityWx]

There's decent upper level moisture on Saturday. I'm curious if we can get something then: 

 

Date: 30 hour AVN valid 18Z SAT 25 JAN 14
Station: KCLT
Latitude: 35.22
Longitude: -80.93
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W
mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 1000 67
SFC 983 206 4.1 -14.9 23 19.0 -1.6 226 24 278.7 278.9 272.4 282.2 1.22
2 950 481 0.5 -16.1 28 16.6 -4.1 230 36 277.7 277.9 271.8 281.0 1.14
3 900 911 -3.5 -16.5 36 13.0 -7.0 234 42 277.9 278.1 271.9 281.3 1.16
4 850 1361 -3.9 -10.2 61 6.3 -6.0 252 48 282.1 282.4 275.6 288.0 2.07
5 800 1842 -2.3 -5.5 79 3.2 -3.6 264 56 288.7 289.2 280.4 297.9 3.17
6 750 2353 -3.9 -6.4 83 2.5 -4.9 265 60 292.3 292.9 282.0 301.6 3.15
7 700 2896 -6.9 -7.9 92 1.0 -7.2 264 63 294.9 295.4 283.0 303.9 3.01
8 650 3471 -9.8 -10.1 98 0.3 -9.9 263 69 297.9 298.4 283.8 306.2 2.73
9 600 4085 -12.6 -13.3 95 0.6 -12.9 262 75 301.5 301.9 284.8 308.6 2.29
10 550 4744 -16.8 -18.7 85 1.9 -17.3 261 79 304.1 304.4 285.0 309.2 1.59
11 500 5455 -20.0 -26.3 57 6.3 -21.2 259 87 308.7 308.9 285.9 311.7 0.89
12 450 6229 -24.8 -33.2 46 8.4 -26.1 257 91 312.0 312.1 286.7 313.9 0.52
13 400 7073 -31.6 -36.8 60 5.3 -32.1 260 91 314.0 314.0 287.2 315.4 0.41
14 350 8002 -39.6 -40.1 95 0.5 -39.6 258 96 315.3 315.4 287.6 316.5 0.33
15 300 9036 -48.2 -48.3 99 0.1 -48.2 263 106 317.4 317.5 288.1 318.0 0.16
16 250 10219 -54.5 -54.7 98 0.2 -54.5 269 114 325.1 325.1 290.4 325.4 0.09
17 200 11635 -57.9 -61.8 61 3.9 -57.9 259 102 341.1 341.2 294.6 341.3 0.05
18 150 13458 -55.2 -69.8 15 14.5 -55.5 261 92 374.9 374.9 301.4 375.0 0.02
19 100 16047 -56.2 -80.2 3 24.0 -56.7 268 67 419.1 419.1 307.6 419.1 0.01
TRP 0

[Jon]

Anyone see the Euro EPS weeklies control that came out yesterday?

- It essentially has the +PNA rebuild on the 1-7/8 time frame.

- It then does this SE ridge/WC trough idea (again) around 1/13.

- On 1/20, it flips again with a huge +PNA and drops the PV down into the lakes.

 

Not saying it's right (thats a heck of a lot of flipping) but it makes sense with what we've seen this winter. If we can get a storm next week, a storm between 8-13th, and a storm at the end of Feb, it will be a FAB FEB for sure.

 

Starting to see some slight trends in the ever so diving -PNA displayed on teleconnections:

 

00z Op Euro: instead of crashing out past -3 it flattens out at -2, I expect it to start heading toward neutral one of these runs, maybe the 12z?

 

12z Op GFS: also not as negative, went from -2 to -1 same time period (1/01)

 

12z Op GFS have both a -NAO/-AO combo by 1/09 around -3.

 

00z Op Canadian have a -NAO/-AO combo by 1/03 around -3, previous run values same time period were +NAO/+AO.

 

Favorable times ahead, I wouldn't cancel winter anytime soon.

[FallsLake]

Still looks like the extended could have potential. Plenty of opportunities for overrunning events. Here is an example, 18z GFS at hour 264. Just like the event next week this will trend or look different tonight, but the important thing it shows the type of pattern that will start late next week. **this will be when we want the highs to be as strong as possible.

 

[packbacker]

Anyone see the Euro EPS weeklies control that came out yesterday?

- It essentially has the +PNA rebuild on the 1-7/8 time frame.

- It then does this SE ridge/WC trough idea (again) around 1/13.

- On 1/20, it flips again with a huge +PNA and drops the PV down into the lakes.

 

Not saying it's right (thats a heck of a lot of flipping) but it makes sense with what we've seen this winter. If we can get a storm next week, a storm between 8-13th, and a storm at the end of Feb, it will be a FAB FEB for sure.

 

Starting to see some slight trends in the ever so diving -PNA displayed on teleconnections:

 

00z Op Euro: instead of crashing out past -3 it flattens out at -2, I expect it to start heading toward neutral one of these runs, maybe the 12z?

 

12z Op GFS: also not as negative, went from -2 to -1 same time period (1/01)

 

12z Op GFS have both a -NAO/-AO combo by 1/09 around -3.

 

00z Op Canadian have a -NAO/-AO combo by 1/03 around -3, previous run values same time period were +NAO/+AO.

 

Favorable times ahead, I wouldn't cancel winter anytime soon.

 

Interesting for sure.  The 12z Euro Ens mean shows a traditional -NAO trying to get built days 11-14, looks fairly nice.

[Cheeznado]

Major pattern shift about to happen. Western ridge be undercut, the parched West will get precip, and we go warm and wet here. Since this cold air is likely to be wasted, we have to hope for late Feb and march.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Major pattern shift about to happen. Western ridge be undercut, the parched West will get precip, and we go warm and wet here. Since this cold air is likely to be wasted, we have to hope for late Feb and march.

maybe a pattern shift will finally give us a chance for some snow. Obviously this pattern has been horrible for snow lovers.

[DaculaWeather]

Major pattern shift about to happen. Western ridge be undercut, the parched West will get precip, and we go warm and wet here. Since this cold air is likely to be wasted, we have to hope for late Feb and march.

Yea... I wasn't getting good vibes with this one.

[tarheelwx]

I just checked out the 06z GFS and was surprised at the warmth days 10-16.

TW

[calculus1]

There is a brief warmup on the 12Z GFS over days 7-12, but then it brings back the fantasy snowstorms near the end of the run with pretty severe cold weather again.  In fact, Meteostar is indicating some precipitation for KHKY for every 12-hour period after truncation to the end of the run.  0 inches of precipitation before truncation and 3 total inches afterwards.  Even if this upcoming storm doesn't work out, it appears that winter still has quite a bit of a punch to deliver.  You warmistas can enjoy a 5-day period of respite, while the rest of us endure it in anticipation of the cold returning afterwards.

 

And, then there's this gem of a storm out there in la-la-land:

 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

FWIW I saw JB discuss Feb forecast on Saturday summary. He shows 17/18 & 94 winter where Feb was warm. But he showed maps W/next 5 days are brutal cold then warms upsome over next 5 only to go back cold next 5.Also Feb looks wet .I guess at this point anything is possible. Yesterday the CFS had Feb cold .

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

Just saw DT 's video from wxrisk  and he 's still in on the storm next week.

What's just as important is he seams to believe we may  have more chances in Feb after next weekends warm up.

[franklin NCwx]

West based nao still on the euro ensembles. Fab February on the way? Cfsv2 is frigid for February.

[WidreMann]

The Euro has been forecasting a PV split in the stratosphere for a few runs now:

[Cold Rain]

The CFS went from an icebox for Feb to a huge SE ridge signal and a SE torch.

[POWERSTROKE]

The CFS went from an icebox for Feb to a huge SE ridge signal and a SE torch.

Fwiw JB been saying this for weeks. He said a big battle in Feb cold trying to fight back. Who will win

[WidreMann]

Fwiw JB been saying this for weeks. He said a big battle in Feb cold trying to fight back. Who will win

JB, with more subscription hits.

[POWERSTROKE]

JB, with more subscription hits.

Probably so since he has been right all winter

[WidreMann]

Probably so since he has been right all winter

He always calls for cold and snow, so if it's a colder winter, he's more likely to be right.

[POWERSTROKE]

He always calls for cold and snow, so if it's a colder winter, he's more likely to be right.

Yea ok. He said what pattern would do mid Dec he said extreme cold coming then warm up with ridge in beginning early Feb. Most say he doesnt say anything about SE. That's because nothing to say. If its going to snow he will. He said on Monday a coastal Carolina storm and points south. Hmmm looks like right again

Even Robert says winter not looking good after this week with ridge coming back with rain. Yes there will be possible chances but most likely not much left.

[Jon]

The CFS went from an icebox for Feb to a huge SE ridge signal and a SE torch.

Fwiw JB been saying this for weeks. He said a big battle in Feb cold trying to fight back. Who will win

He also said polar vortex #2 in late Jan was going to have the same implications economically as a direct hit of a major hurricane. Even I knew that was pretty bold.

[BullCityWx]

He also said polar vortex #2 in late Jan was going to have the same implications economically as a direct hit of a major hurricane. Even I knew that was pretty bold.

Crazy is probably a better term than bold

[POWERSTROKE]

He also said polar vortex #2 in late Jan was going to have the same implications economically as a direct hit of a major hurricane. Even I knew that was pretty bold.

Actually he said possibly never said it would happen. But propane is on a limited supply due to the amount used in NE. I could careless if he is right or not just saying been pretty accurate this winter. Now back to wish casting

[nchighcountrywx]

There is a propane state of emergency in WI and MI by the way