Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

[Thrasher Fan]

Bone dry out to 123 on 0z GFS

[rduwx]

The 0z gfs has the moisture in the gulf and a nice sfc low coming out of the Dakotas digging south but then makes a turn to the east while our gulf moisture goes across Florida.  If that sfc low could dig further south and hook up w/ the energy in the gulf we would have something but unfortunately that's not what is happening.

[GaWx]

Do the same thing for RDU so I can get my hopes up again.

I can't because I have only ATL and don't subscribe to WxBell. However, I know that the mean for RDU is similar. So, I bet the breakdown would be somewhat similar with a handful of big dumps.

[superjames1992]

Do the same thing for RDU so I can get my hopes up again.

 

I just took a cursory glance, but it looks like 10 or so show >2" of snow at RDU.  It looks like three over 6" and a couple 9"+ events.

 

I count 12 for GSO with a couple big dogs (10"+).

 

The GFS is crazy cold through hr 192.  That's 192 hours with the -10C 850 mb isotherm south of much of NC/TN for nearly the entire run, except a day or two.

 

It's pretty cold throughout the entire run with another reinforcing cold shot at the end.  That's one of the coldest GFS runs you'll ever see, IMO, even if it's fantasy.  So much for winter cancel and torching, LOL!

[GaWx]

Per 0Z GFS: close to some snow NC coast 1/29 fwiw from an offshore low.

[dsaur]

Amongst the many things that are overdue, is a southside clipper to come across the middle and give the finger to the north like the clipper today just did to me, lol.  One of the most evil weather things to befall me was getting slammed with the ice storm, then a swift kick to the beans with the Macon cannonball, lol. while Atl. was mostly sunny.  One of these days something out in the Pacific is going to come ashore and ride down with one of these cold out bursts, and something is going to happen   The semiphors are flashing, the time period is the best, the winter is cold.  Just need the gulf  to come in stronger than it did today.  Timing...and as always, a split flow could seal the deal.   T

[HKY_WX]

There's def potential day 7-10. the combo of the split-flow( aka stj+PNA ridge) and pj impulses bring phasing into play. i'd like to see that trough that swings through day 6 to bomb off the northeast. that would slow down the atlantic and probably lead to a big dog mecs around day 8 or 9.

[stepandfetch]

I just took a cursory glance, but it looks like 10 or so show >2" of snow at RDU.  It looks like three over 6" and a couple 9"+ events.

 

I count 12 for GSO with a couple big dogs (10"+).

 

The GFS is crazy cold through hr 192.  That's 192 hours with the -10C 850 mb isotherm south of much of NC/TN for nearly the entire run, except a day or two.

 

It's pretty cold throughout the entire run with another reinforcing cold shot at the end.  That's one of the coldest GFS runs you'll ever see, IMO, even if it's fantasy.  So much for winter cancel and torching, LOL!

 

 

 

What ever snow does fall will certainly stick, so that is one thing we shouldn't need to worry about.

[Wow]

There's def potential day 7-10. the combo of the split-flow( aka stj+PNA ridge) and pj impulses bring phasing into play. i'd like to see that trough that swings through day 6 to bomb off the northeast. that would slow down the atlantic and probably lead to a big dog mecs around day 8 or 9.

 

I'm seeing real potential here, too.  There are players on the field.  The key is slowing down the northern jet.  Major amplification has been lacking due to the fast track.. thanks to the +NAO.  Getting the 50/50 low with an (at least) a transient -NAO can do the trick.

[GaWx]

Per 0Z GFS: close to some snow NC coast 1/29 fwiw from an offshore low.

 

 Still another Euro run with a major winter storm for part of the SE during 1/28-30 (3rd in a row)! Per 0Z Euro and eerily similar to last night's 0Z Euro, there is 1"+ snow on the SC and NC coasts 1/28 from CHS northward with heaviest of 4-7" much of NC coast and including Outer Banks! 1"+ snow goes inland about 100 miles. Florence gets about 1". Savannah is close to getting a little bit of snow with temp.s' staying at or below 32 all day and with light qpf of~0.07")/850's near 0C and then falling).

 

Edit: Meanwhile, a SECOND major snow hits the SE just two days later on 1/30!

 

Edit #2 2nd snowstorm 1/30 from a Miller A: 1-4" far northern GA, NW corner SC, western half of NC except 4-6" NC/Ga border northward to NC/TN line. QPF ~0.60-0.75". Based on the track of Brownsville to Apalachicola to Brunswick with that much cold air around and ample qpf, this easily has the potential to be something even bigger and more widespread. Tony, we may have finally located what you've been expecting.

 

 An amazing period for the SE US 1/28-30 on the 0Z Wed. Euro!! I think it is coming, folks! Ducks are on the pond. The Euro ensemble will be interesting to see.

[mackerel_sky]

Still another Euro run with a major winter storm for part of the SE during 1/28-30 (3rd in a row)! Per 0Z Euro and eerily similar to last night's 0Z Euro, there is 1"+ snow on the SC and NC coasts 1/28 from CHS northward with heaviest of 4-7" much of NC coast and including Outer Banks! 1"+ snow goes inland about 100 miles. Florence gets about 1". Savannah is close to getting a little bit and may acutally be getting some (had to tell but temp.s' stay at or below 32 all day with light qpf very closeby and 850's near 0C).

Edit; Meanwhile, a SECOND major snow hits the SE just two days later on 1/30!

Wow! Sounds like one of the better runs of the Euro of the winter so far, as far as long range storms go

[ILMRoss]

Per 0Z GFS: close to some snow NC coast 1/29 fwiw from an offshore low.

 

 Still another Euro run with a major winter storm for part of the SE during 1/28-30 (3rd in a row)! Per 0Z Euro and eerily similar to last night's 0Z Euro, there is 1"+ snow on the SC and NC coasts 1/28 from CHS northward with heaviest of 4-7" much of NC coast and including Outer Banks! 1"+ snow goes inland about 100 miles. Florence gets about 1". Savannah is close to getting a little bit with temp.s' staying at or below 32 all day and with light qpf very closeby/850's near 0C).

 

Edit: Meanwhile, a SECOND major snow hits the SE just two days later on 1/30!

 

Edit #2 2nd snowstorm 1/30 from a Miller A: 1-4" far northern GA, NW corner SC, western half of NC except 4-6" NC/Ga border northward to NC/TN line. QPF ~0.60-0.75". Based on the track of Brownsville to Apalachicola to Brunswick with that much cold air around, this easily has the potential to be something even bigger and more widespread. Tony, we may have finally located what you've been expecting.

 

 An amazing period for the SE US 1/28-30 on the 0Z Wed. Euro!! I think it is coming, folks! Ducks are on the pond. The Euro ensemble will be interesting to see.

Is that first storm a Wilmington special? Sounds like the Feb 2010 storm.

[GaWx]

Is that first storm a Wilmington special? Sounds like the Feb 2010 storm.

 

Yep, ILM gets ~3.5" of snow from ~0.35" of qpf!

[GaWx]

Wed. 0Z Euro ensembles actually snowier than the Tue 12Z Euro ens. mean!

 

Edit: Asheville, far NE GA, GSP 2-2.5"! 1.5-2" RDU, CLT, COLA, Aug,, AHN, ATL. 1-1/5" MCN, Columbus.

 

 This is from a 51 member averaged ensemble!! That's quite a strong signal.

[NavarreDon]

 Still another Euro run with a major winter storm for part of the SE during 1/28-30 (3rd in a row)! Per 0Z Euro and eerily similar to last night's 0Z Euro, there is 1"+ snow on the SC and NC coasts 1/28 from CHS northward with heaviest of 4-7" much of NC coast and including Outer Banks! 1"+ snow goes inland about 100 miles. Florence gets about 1". Savannah is close to getting a little bit of snow with temp.s' staying at or below 32 all day and with light qpf of~0.07")/850's near 0C and then falling).

 

Edit: Meanwhile, a SECOND major snow hits the SE just two days later on 1/30!

 

Edit #2 2nd snowstorm 1/30 from a Miller A: 1-4" far northern GA, NW corner SC, western half of NC except 4-6" NC/Ga border northward to NC/TN line. QPF ~0.60-0.75". Based on the track of Brownsville to Apalachicola to Brunswick with that much cold air around and ample qpf, this easily has the potential to be something even bigger and more widespread. Tony, we may have finally located what you've been expecting.

 

 An amazing period for the SE US 1/28-30 on the 0Z Wed. Euro!! I think it is coming, folks! Ducks are on the pond. The Euro ensemble will be interesting to see.

 

Check out the 6Z GFS for the same time period. Will be anxiously waiting yours or anyones thoughts!

[franklin NCwx]

Looks like we finally go back to a -pna, ao looks to remain negative with positive height a nomalys over the Davis straits. We will get out of this dry and cold cycle. Now that coastal areas from N.C. to Maine are AOB in snowfall, maybe the mtns can at least get 50% of climo. #tired of this crap #brickbot

[SeVa]

Pretty strong signal when the Euro and GFS are advertising something this far out.

[Shawn]

May have been spoken of earlier.. just woke up:

 

Just took a look at 00z Euro.. it does have snowfall on the OP map now for SC/NC at least with heavier amounts for Eastern NC.

The individual members still look great for many of us from Birmingham all the way to Charleston, Wilmington, Augusta, Savannah, ATL, KCAE, CLT, RDU, etc!

 

The biggest thing I notice is the 00z OP GFS was close, the 06Z actually gets NC pretty good, and the plumes from 00z show 1.61 inches of ice for KCAE from one member in this 29-31st time-frame.

 

We have two global models hinting at a real widespread storm; Finally.  The Euro leads the pack this go around with the GGEM showing nothing for us!  Great signs!

 

Larry and anyone else who actually believes this event has the best chance of the entire Winter; I agree.

[FallsLake]

Hay Poimen get ready to make a thread(Clipper part 2):

 

from RAH

 

A SIMILAR PATTERN DEVELOPS AGIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND BRIEF MODERATION BEFORE YET ANOTHER...AND
STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.  WHILE
MODELS ARE ALSO DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WOULD SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE AND
ABILITY TO GENERATE PRECIP.  WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
 

[SnowNiner]

Check out the 6Z GFS for the same time period. Will be anxiously waiting yours or anyones thoughts!

 

Something's brewing for the 30th/31st time frame.  I don't know what it is, but I have a good feeling about some kind of storm for somebody.  It's been showing up consistently for several days now.  Let's just hope it all comes together.  GFS and EURO are on board with some shenanigans. 

 

[POWERSTROKE]

Pretty strong signal when the Euro and GFS are advertising something this far out.

always ten days away.  don't get excited yet but just hope

[GreensboroWx]

Something's brewing for the 30th/31st time frame.  I don't know what it is, but I have a good feeling about some kind of storm for somebody.  It's been showing up consistently for several days now.  Let's just hope it all comes together.  GFS and EURO are on board with some shenanigans. 

 

 

I DO think this is something we have to watch closely. First, it's inside of the mythical 10 days, and second, multiple models are showing various stages of a storm....

[GreensboroWx]

Interesting......

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42406-late-january-early-february-pattern-discussion/page-16#entry2668934

[Shawn]

JB/CFS has the warmer air entering the Southern part of the states and setting up a real cold vs warm air mass into Feb.  I don't think it looks too bad with the potential if it does, indeed pan out.  You guys in NC look a little bit bitter for some snow chances.. but down here in the deeper south.. it's screaming ice possibilities later on after this 29-31st event.

 

Above normal precip is shown right north of us here in Al, SC, GA also.  All it'll take is a nice SW storm to cut through under the cold air and cause some major disruption here from LA all the way to the coast of SC with the right kind of High pressure centered overhead and some Northern stream interaction.

 

Elsewhere, the  axis looks like it could possibly weaken as we get further along for those in the West coast to get a little troughing and a relax period here in the East.

 

-NAO, -AO, -PNA though.  Hopefully during a transition period we can get the first two to stay negative and get the +PNA instead; but this is all too far out and it'll change 20 times before verification time.

[WXinCanton]

Something's brewing for the 30th/31st time frame.  I don't know what it is, but I have a good feeling about some kind of storm for somebody.  It's been showing up consistently for several days now.  Let's just hope it all comes together.  GFS and EURO are on board with some shenanigans. 

 

 

 

Right at truncation, so its kinda screwy looking.  But I do agree something is in the works for this time period.  

[franklin NCwx]

Something's brewing for the 30th/31st time frame. I don't know what it is, but I have a good feeling about some kind of storm for somebody. It's been showing up consistently for several days now. Let's just hope it all comes together. GFS and EURO are on board with some shenanigans.

gfs has this as another northern stream s/w that stays north of us. This verbatim would work for D.C. north. Maybe coastal nc.

[Brick Tamland]

I DO think this is something we have to watch closely. First, it's inside of the mythical 10 days, and second, multiple models are showing various stages of a storm....

 

 

And the models have been showing something for next week for a while now, at least since last week. I like how they are staying consistent with it.

[Brick Tamland]

Hay Poimen get ready to make a thread(Clipper part 2):

 

from RAH

 

A SIMILAR PATTERN DEVELOPS AGIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH WEST-

SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND BRIEF MODERATION BEFORE YET ANOTHER...AND

STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.  WHILE

MODELS ARE ALSO DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE AMPLITUDE OF THE

SHORTWAVE WOULD SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE AND

ABILITY TO GENERATE PRECIP.  WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS

TIME BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

 

 

 

Wow, we might have another opening act before the main event. This is getting fun.

[Cold Rain]

 

Something's brewing for the 30th/31st time frame.  I don't know what it is, but I have a good feeling about some kind of storm for somebody.  It's been showing up consistently for several days now.  Let's just hope it all comes together.  GFS and EURO are on board with some shenanigans.

 

I like it when SnowNiner gets a little optimistic! And to go along with what Shawn posted above, here are the CFS temp and precip maps for Feb. It's hard to really take these with anything more than a huge grain of salt, BUT what is encouraging is that they have gotten colder as we get closer to February.

On another note, all of this may all fall apart with the 12Z runs, but for now, right this moment, this hobby feels good.

[SnowNiner]

 

 

I like it when SnowNiner gets a little optimistic! And to go along with what Shawn posted above, here are the CFS temp and precip maps for Feb. It's hard to really take these with anything more than a huge grain of salt, BUT what is encouraging is that they have gotten colder as we get closer to February.

On another note, all of this may all fall apart with the 12Z runs, but for now, right this moment, this hobby feels good.

 

Ha!   I just call em as I see em!!  Overall we continue to be "in the game" probably into February, but franklin's right, at the moment we're stuck in a cold and dry pattern.  Hopefully the end of next week gets us out of the dry pattern. 

 

I just blew your mind....positive and negative....in one post!!!!!