Shawn Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Kevin and Greg, You're welcome. The actual wedge sig. is weak at best but that's all I'd expect this far out. Shawn, Dang it! I was hoping this data wasn't from WxBell as I know that their snow amounts are well-known to be way too heavy with snow. I've seen them overdo it. However, I do feel good about my provider's snow maps and they do show the amounts I mentioned. So, the 51 members must add to something like 50" in reality. This is likely a somewhat modest version of Wxbell's amounts albeit still pretty impressive, I'm guessing the WxBell's 51 amounts add to way more than 50". Anyway, I'm going to check them out shortly. Thanks. I'm pretty impressed with a 288 hr GFS from 4 days ago showing this potential that the Euro now has I posted above (the map.) I am pretty sure the wxbell maps also seem to include ice/mix/freezing rain as snowfall accumulation/snowfall also. Still Wintry though. Many members on here in the deep South would be happy with just a ZR event to help curb the dissappointment of this Winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The Euro control was showing somewhere around 0.25" of liquid but the deterministic was much nicer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 If you have a subscription to the Model Center you can see the trend loop for the 18z GFS for the southern s/w valid 1/28 trending stronger over W TX. http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfs&run_time=18z¶m=500mbvort&map=NA&run_hour=168&loop=trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Everyone.....Please keep the discussion on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Which way do we want the EP vectors to point? http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 In a major strat warming, the vectors will go from pointing to the equator before, and flipping toward the north pole as it gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 In a major strat warming, the vectors will go from pointing to the equator before, and flipping toward the north pole as it gets going.So the fact that they are pointing to the left (which I assume is equatorward) means that we are having a reversal of the minimal warming we saw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yes, we've actually had a slight cooling of the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 There may be a sign that warming may take place again. Wavenumber 1 had a pretty serious pressure amplitude and there are signs that it has caused some new heating. Something to watch. You can see the beginning of the heating here Overall, the temps up there have been below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Does it even matter at this point? Once a legitimate warming occurs, isn't it several weeks before the effects are felt, if the effects are good at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Just depends. We had a small one at the start of January and NOAA claimed the previous arctic outbreak on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Does it even matter at this point? Once a legitimate warming occurs, isn't it several weeks before the effects are felt, if the effects are good at all?If it's a very strong warming, the effects can take place almost immediately. I think that happened last year, or in 2009. Saw reference to it somewhere on the web, but can't remember where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Just depends. We had a small one at the start of January and NOAA claimed the previous arctic outbreak on that. Hmmm...that's interesting. Well, I guess it's better to have a warming than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Hmmm...that's interesting. Well, I guess it's better to have a warming than not.In this case, it would just result in having another miserable cold spring followed by a dry pattern in summer and fall and another ****ty winter. Can we go for 5 years in a row with <1" at RDU? I think we can! I suppose we could at least enjoy *that* kind of extreme weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 If it's a very strong warming, the effects can take place almost immediately. I think that happened last year, or in 2009. Saw reference to it somewhere on the web, but can't remember where. It seems like every year the stratosphere is super cold and we're always waiting for a warming event. I wonder why that is? Maybe we're just paying more attention now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It seems like every year the stratosphere is super cold and we're always waiting for a warming event. I wonder why that is? Maybe we're just paying more attention now.We had a big one last year. It was kind of a big deal. But the rest of the troposphere didn't want to cooperate, so we only got some token crap out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 In this case, it would just result in having another miserable cold spring followed by a dry pattern in summer and fall and another ****ty winter. Can we go for 5 years in a row with <1" at RDU? I think we can! I suppose we could at least enjoy *that* kind of extreme weather. Nah, we're getting a decent storm or two this year. February is gonna rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Nah, we're getting a decent storm or two this year. February is gonna rock!"February is gonna be rockin'" means the same thing to me as "Winter is coming". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 "February is gonna be rockin'" means the same thing to me as "Winter is coming". Haha...I know. Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Youu don't really need a ssw event when the pacific setup is as ideal as it will be over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I remember being around for that rockin' February. Man, I've been posting too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I remember being around for that rockin' February. Man, I've been posting too long. we've been on the various boards for almost 13 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 In this case, it would just result in having another miserable cold spring followed by a dry pattern in summer and fall and another ****ty winter. Can we go for 5 years in a row with <1" at RDU? I think we can! I suppose we could at least enjoy *that* kind of extreme weather.We never have gone 5 years, ever. But I bet it will! It's rare to go 3 years, it happened 3 times in the past 100+ years.And those stats are for less than 2" not 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 We never have gone 5 years, ever. But I bet it will! It's rare to go 3 years, it happened 3 times in the past 100+ years. And those stats are for less than 2" not 1". I think we went 4: 04/05, 05/06, 06/07, 07/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I think we went 4: 04/05, 05/06, 06/07, 07/08. Correct and we went 3 years in the 90's and before that it was the 30's or 40's. I should have rephrased that. I thought one of those 4 years we had over 1" but under 2", doesn't matter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Correct and we went 3 years in the 90's and before that it was the 30's or 40's. I should have rephrased that. I thought one of those 4 years we had over 1" but under 2", doesn't matter though.It's possible 04/05 was like that, with the January 19th event (the epic traffic jam). Still, to have two such bouts in 20 years, to be followed by another bout is just ridiculous. Globular worming strikes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I can't help but wonder if the previous modeling showing snowy situations/ice here in the deep South were really seeing something that the Euro Ensembles are finally hitting up now. I believe the 00z Euro Ensembles had a wintry deal for a lot too last night. (many members.) I was able to look at the individual precip per member just a second ago.. and we are talking some MAJOR accumulations in areas on a few of them. Multiple members have around 12" in ATL, others 6-8 for example. And this is SE board wide. I didnt look over TN, but I would assume them too. Even you, Tony, Charleston would end up seeing something Wintry... and quite possibly on the high end. Even Tallahasse has quite a few members with snowfall. There are 51 members, but I do love seeing at least 15-25 showing snow for most of us. Based on eyeballing, here's the impressive snowfall breakdown for KATL in # of inches per today's 12Z Euro 51 ensemble members for the ten day period (all of the major falls are within 1/29-31):11, 11, 9, 8, 8, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25 So, 24 of the 51 members produce measurable snowfall. The operational is near 0.75" likely along with some ZR. The 51 average 1.4". A whopping six of the 51 are near mutidecadal highs for the airport (bolded). Eleven of the 51 are at 1"+. Many of these runs likely have ZR, which really isn't taken into account by these numbers. It doesn't get more impressive than that very often at mainly 8-10 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Based on eyeballing, here's the impressive snowfall breakdown for KATL in # of inches per today's 12Z Euro 51 ensemble members for the ten day period (all of the major falls are within 1/29-31): 11, 11, 9, 8, 8, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25 So, 24 of the 51 members produce measurable snowfall. The operational is near 0.75" likely along with some ZR. The 51 average 1.4". A whopping six of the 51 are near mutidecadal highs for the airport (bolded). Eleven of the 51 are at 1"+. Many of these runs likely have ZR, which really isn't taken into account by these numbers. It doesn't get more impressive than that very often at mainly 8-10 days out! Do the same thing for RDU so I can get my hopes up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Hug the NAM!! Still has TX moisture for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Hug the NAM!! Still has TX moisture for this weekend I want to hug the NAM, but let's wait for the GFS and Euro... the NAM has let me down too many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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