Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

[Chattownsnow]

Don't shoot the messenger, but it appears based on hour 168 that the 12Z Euro will likely be much drier 1/28-29 in SC/NC vs. the 0Z Euro. Please put the guns down.

it looks like its about to drop the mother load of cold though

[Wow]

s/w around 216-240 showing a snow to rain setup here.

[GaWx]

Don't shoot the messenger, but it appears based on hour 168 that the 12Z Euro will likely be much drier 1/28-29 in SC/NC vs. the 0Z Euro. Please put the guns down.

It is, indeed, dry for SC/NC for 1/28-29. However, now there's a Miller B producing snow, IP, and ZR in CAD regions and much of NC on 1/30!

[Chattownsnow]

It is, indeed, dry for SC/NC for 1/28-29. However, now there's a Miller B producing snow, IP, and ZR in CAD regions and much of NC on 1/30!

In other words plan yourself a picnic with the wife and kids that day.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Euro clown maps show a 6-8 inch snowstorm for everyone West of US 321 in Western North Carolina and lesser totals along the I-85 and US 74 Cooridor, 2-4 inches for Anderson, GSP, Shelby, Statesville...about 1 inch or so in Charlotte.

[Brick Tamland]

I think the big thing is the models have showed something for the last week of the month for a while now, going back to last week. They might go away for a bit and different models have showed different things, but they have all showed something and continue to do so at various times.

[QC_Halo]

Praying that the ridge out west breaks down by the end of the month...I'm going skiing in Utah then, and ill be highly highly disappointed if it hasn't/doesn't snow out there by then....I could not care less what it does here.

Sorry weenies.

[wxgeek]

Don't look now, but it is snowing in North Georgia...they have winter weather advisories out.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND LOW WIND CHILLS. * LOCATIONS...EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS* HAZARD TYPES...ACCUMULATING SNOW AND LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.* ACCUMULATIONS....UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE  2000 FEET.

[BullCityWx]

Praying that the ridge out west breaks down by the end of the month...I'm going skiing in Utah then, and ill be highly highly disappointed if it hasn't/doesn't snow out there by then....I could not care less what it does here.

Sorry weenies.

 

Guess I'll have to call Ron up and order up two beatings for the saints next yr.

[mackerel_sky]

Euro clown maps show a 6-8 inch snowstorm for everyone West of US 321 in Western North Carolina and lesser totals along the I-85 and US 74 Cooridor, 2-4 inches for Anderson, GSP, Shelby, Statesville...about 1 inch or so in Charlotte.

Is this for the 30 th storm potential?

[mackerel_sky]

JB tweet:

: The 12z run of the GFS is as outrageous as I have ever seen for cold. I have a tough time believing it can stay that cold. for that long

Atleast this time he gave himself an out instead of the junk he was spitting about last week!

[GaWx]

Is this for the 30 th storm potential?

Yes, for 1/30.

[timnc910]

Maybe the models are starting to catch up on the bridge block that was being shown and are and will continue to trend colder... how is the nao looking in the lr?

[calculus1]

Euro clown maps show a 6-8 inch snowstorm for everyone West of US 321 in Western North Carolina and lesser totals along the I-85 and US 74 Cooridor, 2-4 inches for Anderson, GSP, Shelby, Statesville...about 1 inch or so in Charlotte.

 

Wouldn't that be a welcome change for the foothills and western piedmont of NC!  #banter

[SnowNiner]

Euro clown maps show a 6-8 inch snowstorm for everyone West of US 321 in Western North Carolina and lesser totals along the I-85 and US 74 Cooridor, 2-4 inches for Anderson, GSP, Shelby, Statesville...about 1 inch or so in Charlotte.

 

Good to hear. Obviously you would prefer not to have a Miller B, but at this range I still like hearing the EURO (and GFS to an extent) is showing some sort of mix of cold and precipitation mix in this time frame.  It's may be our Obi-wan storm....our only hope! 

[Marion_NC_WX]

Is this for the 30 th storm potential?

 

 

Yes sir...

[dsaur]

Good news is that the GFS has pretty much abandoned the torch look. The bad news is this run of the GFS keeps it dry. However if you want snow you need to have cold air first and foremost. 

It's funny how completely differently we look at this.  My thinking is that Ga always gets cold some in Feb and Jan..always no matter how warm overall, but climo says Jan and Feb are relatively dry, so it's harder to get rain than cold in the months that count.  I'd always want a wet pattern and look for some cold air to find it.  I've seen lots of winters that offered very cold dry patterns, and you can't sled no matter how cold the dry is   Of course, in the end, we both rely on timing foremost...me more than you, maybe, lol.  Tony

[GaWx]

The 12Z Euro ensembles suggest dry for 1/25. However, they are suggesting a much more interesting picture for 1/30-1 fwiw. I'll post about that in more detail once I have time to put it together.

[Southern Track]

Of course, 18z NAM lost the precip it was showing at 12z.

For later this week of course.

[franklin NCwx]

Looks like some of the euro ensembles are really bullish for day 9. We will see, I have about five feet of fantasy euro snow.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

Wouldn't that be a welcome change for the foothills and western piedmont of NC!  #banter

When is this supposed to happen ? We are cold and dry and the suns out now.

[GaWx]

The 12Z Euro ensembles suggest dry for 1/25. However, they are suggesting a much more interesting picture for 1/30-1 fwiw. I'll post about that in more detail once I have time to put it together.

 

12Z Euro ensembles: details about 1/30-1 modeled winter storm threat:

 

- 1"+ of snow is actually shown on the clown map for many inland areas in the SE for 1/30-1! An ensemble with 51 members doing that all the way out at days 9-10 is pretty impressive/rather rare in the SE. It shows 2" at HKY and Asheville, 1.5-2" at GSP, and just under 1" to 1.5" at ATL, AHN, CLT, RDU, and COLA. So, that means that the total snowfall from the 52 members is at ~50-100" for all of these areas. More than likely there are several members with major amounts (a couple could be quite large), a fair number with light amounts, and a good number with none.

 

- Surface map: Very cold Arctic high moves across Ohio Valley 1/29 and then into CAD position 1/30 before moving out 1/31. Low in the western Gulf forms 1/30 and moves across/near the SE early on 1/31 and out into the Atlantic late 1/31. It would appear that a Miller B is being suggested by many members although some members likely have a Miller A.

 

- QPF: a pretty impressive 0.40-0.45" for so far out in time

 

- 500 mb flow: moist WSW flow, which is what you'd want to see as opposed to drier W or WNW. Also, SW flow could bring in too much warm air albeit with ample moisture. So, WSW is often the most favorable for the SE. Old wx maps confirm this.

 

- 850 mb temp.'s: KATL near 0 C for early part of precip. and rising to +2 C by end. RDU: near 0 C entire precip. period

 

- All of this suggests a mainly S/IP mix for RDU. For KATL, it suggests some S to start but more of it being IP/ZR.

 

- Climo: Neutral negative ENSO has been associated with a significantly higher than average chance for a major ZR in at least N GA in late January. Also, there's some suggestion of a higher than normal chance for a major IP with neutral negative ENSO.

 

- Prior model runs: Some GFS runs fwiw a few days back (before they started breaking down the western ridge too quickly) were showing major winter storm in the SE within the last few days of January. This then returned on yesterday's 18Z run. Today's 0Z op. Euro showed a sig. to major snow on 1/28-9 for parts of SC/NC from a Miller A'ish low that forms in the SE GOM on 1/28, moves NE across S/C FL, and then ~200 miles offshore the SE coast 1/29 producing up to 0.75" of qpf. Today's 12Z op. Euro showed a sig. to major snow on 1/30 for the western half of NC/far N GA/upstate SC, and sig. IP/ZR for CAD areas of GA/SC/NC from 0.6-0.75" qpf from a Miler B.

 

 My conclusions: For the period ~1/28 through ~2/1, there is imo a significantly heightened chance at a significant to major winter storm for some in the SE that could include major snow. For N GA and nearby CAD areas, I'm thinking there's a significantly higher than normal chance for a major ZR and/or IP based on a combo of this battezone type of pattern, very cold air just to the north being progged, ample moisture finally returning per many model runs with WSW 500 mb flow, some GFS and Euro runs actually showing major winter storms, and the all important climo for late January with neutral negative ENSO. Despite the large amount of frustration for many SE BB members, I certainly wouldn't give up yet. Remember that a number of past great SE winters were as a result of just one major storm in many cases. Being that I've yet to post something as extensive as this so far this winter, I don't think that any period so far this winter has looked as interesting as around the last few days of January to start of Feb. when considering everything noted here.

[Shawn]

12Z Euro ensembles: details about 1/30-1 modeled winter storm threat:

 

 

I can't help but wonder if the previous modeling showing snowy situations/ice here in the deep South were really seeing something that the Euro Ensembles are finally hitting up now.

 

I believe the 00z Euro Ensembles had a wintry deal for a lot too last night.  (many members.)

 

 

 

I was able to look at the individual precip per member just a second ago.. and we are talking some MAJOR accumulations in areas on a few of them.  Multiple members have around 12" in ATL, others 6-8 for example.

 

And this is SE board wide.  I didnt look over TN, but I would assume them too.  Even you, Tony, Charleston would end up seeing something Wintry... and quite possibly on the high end.

 

 

Even Tallahasse has quite a few members with snowfall.

 

 

There are 51 members, but I do love seeing at least 15-25 showing snow for most of us.

[WXinCanton]

12Z Euro ensembles: details about 1/30-1 modeled winter storm threat:

 

- 1"+ of snow is actually shown on the clown map for many inland areas in the SE for 1/30-1! An ensemble with 51 members doing that all the way out at days 9-10 is pretty impressive/rather rare in the SE. It shows 2" at HKY and Asheville, 1.5-2" at GSP, and just under 1" to 1.5" at ATL, AHN, CLT, RDU, and COLA. So, that means that the total snowfall from the 52 members is at ~50-100" for all of these areas. More than likely there are several members with major amounts (a couple could be quite large), a fair number with light amounts, and a good number with none.

 

- Surface map: Very cold Arctic high moves across Ohio Valley 1/29 and then into CAD position 1/30 before moving out 1/31. Low in the western Gulf forms 1/30 and moves across/near the SE early on 1/31 and out into the Atlantic late 1/31. It would appear that a Miller B is being suggested by many members although some members likely have a Miller A.

 

- QPF: a pretty impressive 0.40-0.45" for so far out in time

 

- 500 mb flow: moist WSW flow, which is what you'd want to see as opposed to drier W or WNW. Also, SW flow could bring in too much warm air albeit with ample moisture. So, WSW is often the most favorable for the SE. Old wx maps confirm this.

 

- 850 mb temp.'s: KATL near 0 C for early part of precip. and rising to +2 C by end. RDU: near 0 C entire precip. period

 

- All of this suggests a mainly S/IP mix for RDU. For KATL, it suggests some S to start but more of it being IP/ZR.

 

- Climo: Neutral negative ENSO has been associated with a significantly higher than average chance for a major ZR in at least N GA in late January. Also, there's some suggestion of a higher than normal chance for a major IP with neutral negative ENSO.

 

- Prior model runs: Some GFS runs fwiw a few days back (before they started breaking down the western ridge too quickly) were showing major winter storm in the SE within the last few days of January. This then returned on yesterday's 18Z run. Today's 0Z op. Euro showed a sig. to major snow on 1/28-9 for parts of SC/NC from a Miller A'ish low that forms in the SE GOM on 1/28, moves NE across S/C FL, and then ~200 miles offshore the SE coast 1/29 producing up to 0.75" of qpf. Today's 12Z op. Euro showed a sig. to major snow on 1/30 for the western half of NC/far N GA/upstate SC, and sig. IP/ZR for CAD areas of GA/SC/NC from 0.6-0.75" qpf

 

 My conclusions: For the period ~1/28 through ~2/1, there is imo a significantly heightened chance at a significant to major winter storm for some in the SE that could include major snow. For N GA and nearby CAD areas, I'm thinking there's a significantly higher than normal chance for a major ZR and/or IP based on a combo of this battezone type of pattern, very cold air just to the north being progged, ample moisture finally returning per many model runs with WSW 500 mb flow, some GFS and Euro runs actually showing major winter storms, and the all important climo for late January with neutral negative ENSO. Despite the large amount of frustration for many SE BB members, I certainly wouldn't give up yet. Remember that a number of past great SE winters were as a result of just one major storm in many cases. Being that I've yet to post something as extensive as this so far this winter, I don't think that any period so far this winter has looked as interesting as around the last few days of January to start of Feb. when considering everything noted here.

Thanks for the analysis Larry much appreciated!

 

How strong is the CAD signature if any at this point being the ensemble mean?  

[QC_Halo]

Guess I'll have to call Ron up and order up two beatings for the saints next yr.

Brick Tamland has a better chance of becoming a meteorologist than you do of Ronnie sweeping the Saints.

[Wow]

Love the split flow showing up on the 18z GFS.setting up past 240.

 

[GaWx]

I can't help but wonder if the previous modeling showing snowy situations/ice here in the deep South were really seeing something that the Euro Ensembles are finally hitting up now.

 

I believe the 00z Euro Ensembles had a wintry deal for a lot too last night.  (many members.)

 

 

 

I was able to look at the individual precip per member just a second ago.. and we are talking some MAJOR accumulations in areas on a few of them.  Multiple members have around 12" in ATL, others 6-8 for example.

 

And this is SE board wide.  I didnt look over TN, but I would assume them too.  Even you, Tony, Charleston would end up seeing something Wintry... and quite possibly on the high end.

 

 

Even Tallahasse has quite a few members with snowfall.

 

 

There are 51 members, but I do love seeing at least 15-25 showing snow for most of us.

 

Shawn,

 Thanks for that info. So, you're able to see clown maps for each of the 51 members of the Euro ensemble? Wow! I didn't expect multiple members to give 12" to ATL and some others to give 6-8" since those are rare to almost unheard of amounts and those few runs would add to close to 50". 6"+ snow in the Atlanta area is pretty uncommon though it has occurred more often on the northside than at the southside's airport. Some areas got close to 6" in the last big storm, Jan. of 2011.

[DixieBlizzard]

Thanks for the analysis Larry much appreciated!

 

How strong is the CAD signature if any at this point being the ensemble mean?  

 

Kevin, did you see any snow today? Had a nice convective-type shower move through Ball Ground this afternoon with temps around 38F. It was actually beginning to whiten the ground but ended just before you could call it a "good dusting". Anyway, it sure did whet my appetite!

 

Larry, thanks for all of your hard work you put into that analysis. It sure sounds better than nothing showing up at all. Your analogs are matching up well with the prevailing weather too.

[Shawn]

Also, here is a GFS run from a few days ago (4 days) around the time period the Euro ensembles are now showing this:

 

[GaWx]

Thanks for the analysis Larry much appreciated!

 

How strong is the CAD signature if any at this point being the ensemble mean?  

 

Kevin and Greg,

 You're welcome. The actual wedge sig. is weak at best but that's all I'd expect this far out.

 

Shawn,

 Dang it! I was hoping this data wasn't from WxBell as I know that their snow amounts are well-known to be way too heavy with snow. I've seen them overdo it. However, I do feel good about my provider's snow maps and they do show the amounts I mentioned. So, the 51 members must add to something like 50" in reality. This is likely a somewhat modest version of Wxbell's amounts albeit still pretty impressive, I'm guessing the WxBell's 51 amounts add to way more than 50".

 Anyway, I'm going to check them out shortly. Thanks.