Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

[nchighcountrywx]

NWS Blacksburg Video Outlook

http://youtu.be/QgAMo5S9Fyo

[Jon]

Well, all the operationals are in fairly unanimous agreement that the LR is a grease fire on top of a dumpster fire in a train wreck...save for Larry's 240 Euro, which shows a transient clod shot. The PNA looks to return to the default 2013-2014 state of negative, the NAO looks to remain in the default 2013-2014 state of positive, and the AO looks to stay generally weakly negative, although just a few days ago, it looked like it would go deeply negative.

Maybe somebody can come in and post some beautiful ensemble images that show some pretty blue colors over the SE.

I bring you gifts.

 

The OPs are in agreement, but thankfully, the ensembles are in agreement too...and each of them have this death ridge coming later and later with varying intensity you have to wonder when it will show and how long it will stay. IF it shows (remember, that's still on the table...don't let disappearing fantasy storms get your hope down on the LR)

 

00z ECMWF ens mean day 5-10

 

Euro Control Day 5-10

 

06 OP 500mb heights at 216hrs. Look at the 540 line...what in the heck does the GFS think it's trying to pull? Dumpster fire??

 

 

 

Same time period, GFS ensemble control 216 hrs valid 1-07....the hell? Totally different.

 

06z GFS ensemble mean same time 540 basically in VA (free map, felt like I'm posting too many wxbell maps)

It's obvious the GFS is still out to lunch for the LR. Don't read into dumpster fire runs right now, cold is still on the table even if you're a pessimist you can't deny the model is having trouble. It put a 1068 high I believe in the US at 300hrs it's gone now and not even close from the 6z...6z is a torch basically in the same area...ok GFS OP we believe you.

[burgertime]

I bring you gifts.

 

The OPs are in agreement, but thankfully, the ensembles are in agreement too...and each of them have this death ridge coming later and later with varying intensity you have to wonder when it will show and how long it will stay. IF it shows (remember, that's still on the table...don't let disappearing fantasy storms get your hope down on the LR)

 

00z ECMWF ens mean day 5-10

 

 

Euro Control Day 5-10

 

 

06 OP 500mb heights at 216hrs

 

 

 

 

Same time period, GFS ensemble control 216 hrs valid 1-07

 

 

06z GFS ensemble mean same time (free map, felt like I'm posting too many wxbell maps)

 

It's obvious the GFS is still out to lunch for the LR. Don't read into dumpster fire runs right now, cold is still on the table even if you're a pessimist you can't deny the model is having trouble. It put a 1068 high I believe in the US at 300hrs it's gone now and not even close from the 6z...6z is a torch basically in the same area...ok GFS OP we believe you.

 

Right on cue 12z GFS looks a lot better just past 200 hours. Major cold air spilling into the eastern US and down into the SE.

[debbieteach2]

I'm reminded this morning of a quote often attributed (right or wrong) to Mark Twain: "Everybody complains about the weather, but nobody does anything about it."

 

It's times like this that I wish I could do something about the weather, but I can't so I'll sit back and happily take whatever Mother Nature wants to give.

Mother Nature has ticked me off so many times and shocked me at other times.  I am in the "forget it"  snow zone in south central Alabama.  I have to travel for snow fun.  It seems my two unbelievable memories were not predicted: 1-  An Auburn University tornado followed within hours a great snow of around 4 inches /  2- The blizzard of 93 that held me hostage in Sweetwater,TN while in route to Gatlinburg, TN for a few inches of snow. I got a comical call from my neighbor asking me why I was in Sweetwater when I had 8 inches of snow in my backyard. I will never live that down. The surprises are really fun and the predicted but never happen forecasts are awful..  I write this because I have enjoyed this site for many years.  I read your comments because I always look forward to your strategies and interpretations of the weather maps. I think it is a gift to be able to read the various models. Don't get discouraged.  You have many fans even one that has little hope of seeing snow in her backyard. It is still a favorite pass time of mine.

[burgertime]

Mother Nature has ticked me off so many times and shocked me at other times.  I am in the "forget it"  snow zone in south central Alabama.  I have to travel for snow fun.  It seems my two unbelievable memories were not predicted: 1-  An Auburn University tornado followed within hours a great snow of around 4 inches /  2- The blizzard of 93 that held me hostage in Sweetwater,TN while in route to Gatlinburg, TN for a few inches of snow. I got a comical call from my neighbor asking me why I was in Sweetwater when I had 8 inches of snow in my backyard. I will never live that down. The surprises are really fun and the predicted but never happen forecasts are awful..  I write this because I have enjoyed this site for many years.  I read your comments because I always look forward to your strategies and interpretations of the weather maps. I think it is a gift to be able to read the various models. Don't get discouraged.  You have many fans even one that has little hope of seeing snow in her backyard. It is still a favorite pass time of mine.

 

I know it's off topic but that's what this board is all about, learning and having a hobby.  

[Brick Tamland]

Don't look now and fwiw (not a whole lot...mainly entertainment) for the two dry cold wx folks but the 0z Euro is very cold days 9-10 (1/7-8) in the SE with -14C at 850 on 1/7 at ATL and high on 1/7 of only a little above 32 there. Not that I think it is going to come close to verifying. Regardless, hopefully Brick won't see this as he hates dry cold with a passion. Well he also hates cold rain as well as warm rain...well, unless there are tornadoes associated with it.

  

Figures we get the cold in here after the precip leaves, and it will only last a day or two, then we get a two inch rain producer after the cold moves out. Seems that these two never want to get together this winter

It really is getting old. Either the cold air we do get for a couple of days is wasted because it's dry, or we get a ton of precip like today with no cold air around. Sometimes I wish it was just warm and sunny all the time and we didn't e.ven have a chance for snow ever again. Would make things a lot easier to take.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

I know it's off topic but that's what this board is all about, learning and having a hobby.  

Well said Burger....

[FLweather]

I thought we already had the pattern shake-up changer? The mega 950 MB low in Europe was suppose to be the game changer ! Most were saying that would be the catalyst for the change , here we are with the same results we've had all fall. Even if the upper pattern changed, we are stuck with the same end results ! Don't know what it will take to get the blocking we need?!

No

 

The only thing that really did was keep +nao a +nao. There is not much difference between this year and the past few years.. The flow has been too fast and too progress. The only positive thing about this year compare to last few years is more progressive cold shots instead of a consistent SE Ridge warm shots.

[BullCityWx]

At least we'll have a day with the high around freezing next week.

[BullCityWx]

Also, the GFS is showing a small bit of freezing rain next Sunday.

[NEGa]

How much total? 1.41 here so far with drizzle now.

 

total is 1.73 - however, i thought there might be a bit more in the gauge this morning lol.  guess we have been spoiled with the copious rains this years haha

[NCSNOW]

Remember guys you can have the perfect pattern tc wise. Negative nao, positive pna, negative ao e.t.c and still get the same results we've been getting. No pattern guarantees anything in our neck of the woods.

[dsaur]

Mother Nature has ticked me off so many times and shocked me at other times.  I am in the "forget it"  snow zone in south central Alabama.  I have to travel for snow fun.  It seems my two unbelievable memories were not predicted: 1-  An Auburn University tornado followed within hours a great snow of around 4 inches /  2- The blizzard of 93 that held me hostage in Sweetwater,TN while in route to Gatlinburg, TN for a few inches of snow. I got a comical call from my neighbor asking me why I was in Sweetwater when I had 8 inches of snow in my backyard. I will never live that down. The surprises are really fun and the predicted but never happen forecasts are awful..  I write this because I have enjoyed this site for many years.  I read your comments because I always look forward to your strategies and interpretations of the weather maps. I think it is a gift to be able to read the various models. Don't get discouraged.  You have many fans even one that has little hope of seeing snow in her backyard. It is still a favorite pass time of mine.

Nice post!  It's the surprises that stay with you the longest, and it's usually a surprise in the south   I like that you travelled to see snow during the blizzard, lol.  Yours and my day is coming, we are way over due for a mid state slammer   Tony

[POWERSTROKE]

We will get one eventually. It may be a 8-12 so we all get our average. In the SE it only takes one a lot of times

[jburns]

In the past 24 hours there has been major pattern change.  Unfortunately it has occurred inside the forum.  Up until late yesterday the long range models showed some potential snowy action for the SE.  Woe be unto the member who dared dismiss them for he would be accused of being a diver of cliffs.  

 

But today, just a few hours later, the long range models now show a much warmer, snowless future.  Now those same models are portrayed as useless, clueless and any other less you want to label them.  Hope springs eternal.  Unfortunately, so does delusion.

 

[nchighcountrywx]

Joe Bastardi shares his thoughts on the January 1 - 3 storm accumulations via Twitter.

The action is along the arctic boundary zone.

@BigJoeBastardi:

Ideas on Jan 1-3 snow. Pinkish is 3 day total 4, with 4-8 in red. Darker brown 4-8 chc 16

http://t.co/RnGe5ycsGE

[metalicwx366]

In the past 24 hours there has been major pattern change. has occurred inside the forum. Up until late yesterday the long range models showed some potential snowy action for the SE. Woe be unto the member who dared dismiss them for he would be accused of being a diver of cliffs.

But today, just a few hours later, the long range models now show a much warmer, snowless future. Now those same models are portrayed as useless, clueless and any other less you want to label them. Hope springs eternal. Unfortunately, so does delusion.

This is what happens on here. If the model is showing warm, snoweless apparently it's useless, or isn't handling the pattern right. Like GAwx said a while back, only 3% of the precipitation that falls up there is in wintry form during the winter. You can't be disappointed when the models no longer show snow.

[Cold Rain]

I bring you gifts.

 

The OPs are in agreement, but thankfully, the ensembles are in agreement too...and each of them have this death ridge coming later and later with varying intensity you have to wonder when it will show and how long it will stay. IF it shows (remember, that's still on the table...don't let disappearing fantasy storms get your hope down on the LR)

 

00z ECMWF ens mean day 5-10

 

Euro Control Day 5-10

 

06 OP 500mb heights at 216hrs. Look at the 540 line...what in the heck does the GFS think it's trying to pull? Dumpster fire??

 

 

 

Same time period, GFS ensemble control 216 hrs valid 1-07....the hell? Totally different.

 

06z GFS ensemble mean same time 540 basically in VA (free map, felt like I'm posting too many wxbell maps)

It's obvious the GFS is still out to lunch for the LR. Don't read into dumpster fire runs right now, cold is still on the table even if you're a pessimist you can't deny the model is having trouble. It put a 1068 high I believe in the US at 300hrs it's gone now and not even close from the 6z...6z is a torch basically in the same area...ok GFS OP we believe you.

Your post made me laugh. Thanks for posting the images. It will be nice to see that pattern set up within 5 days and stay around for a while.

[franklin NCwx]

Your post made me laugh. Thanks for posting the images. It will be nice to see that pattern set up within 5 days and stay around for a while.

and the 12z gfs ensembles are losing the western trough idea. More trough central/east.

[GaWx]

Wow, compare the 12z Euro with a couple of the Euro runs from just a couple of days ago. Then, it had a nice banana shaped 1040+ mb high traversing the Midwest and supplying ample cold air into the SE for 1/2-3. Now it has a 1006 mb low traversing the Midwest not far from where it had that strong high. The Euro has a bias of bringing too strong highs from the Plains to the NE. I wonder if that bias contributed to this major flip flop in some way. Regardless, assuming it ends up verifying similarly to today's 12z model consensus for 1/2-3, my feeling would be that the Euro was really horrible and clueless from 6-7 days out when it had a suppressed Miller A for 1/2-3 and a strong Arctic high traversing the Midwest . This model has been disappointing to me when one considers its reputation. It has already had a good number of false SE snowstorms from not real far out in forecasting time. It just seems to me that it has been performing worse than the GFS in this regard overall. Any other opinions?

[mackerel_sky]

What is stopping all that arctic air that is going to be over the NE from getting down here? Why is there not a wedge forming for the 1/3 storm? Or am I missing something?

[burgertime]

Euro matches up well with the GFS for cold air out past 200. Of course it's bone dry but you gotta have cold air to get winter weather. 

[FallsLake]

Well the 12z GFS did show a little light snow accumulations Monday night for the 40/85 corridor through NC. Basically a dusting to maybe a half inch. Not sure about surface temps but there at least could still be some token flakes for some.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=12&fhour=48&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[packbacker]

Euro matches up well with the GFS for cold air out past 200. Of course it's bone dry but you gotta have cold air to get winter weather.

SOI is negative, will be active southern stream, someone will be getting snow.

[GaWx]

Folks ,
I think that Doc needs a doc. Don't let its past reputation sucker you into complacency about its accuracy. The debacle about 1/2-3 has already been discussed. Now the crazy 12z Euro run has a 1050ish Montana high that maintains its 1050ish strength all of the way into the Ohio Valley day 10! It is not common for northern Rockies/Plains highs to go all of the way into the Ohio Valley and not weaken at least some. Yet, the Euro has been repeatedly doing that this winter only to verify with a much weaker high in that area. Anyway, this insane run has Chicago and nearby areas having a HIGH temp. on 1/7 of frigid -10's and lows on 1/ 7 and 1/8 of -20's associated with that 1050 mb high that it refuses to weaken. Don't get suckered into a model that just made a major blunder at only days 6-7. Any comments?

[packbacker]

Folks ,

I think that Doc needs a doc. Don't let its past reputation sucker you into complacency about its accuracy. The debacle about 1/2-3 has already been discussed. Now the crazy 12z Euro run has a 1050ish Montana high that maintains it's 1050ish strength all of the way into the Ohio Valley day 10! It is not common for northern Rockies/Plains highs to go all of the way into the Ohio Valley and not weaken at least some. Yet, the Euro has been repeatedly doing that this winter only to verify with a much weaker high in that area. Anyway, this insane run has Chicago and nearby areas having a HIGH temp. on 1/7 of frigid -10's and lows on 1/ 7 and 1/8 of -20's associated with that 1050 mb high that it refuses to weaken. Don't get suckered into a model that just made a major blunder at only days 6-7. Any comments?

It was fairly shocking to see the Euro Op run with such great support from its ensembles. I think the Euro is the best within 5 days and definitely agree we should wait to get our hopes up until we get multiple model support. Even today the UK/JMA are showing a NC/VA winter storm for the 1/3 event, it is a tough pattern to predict to say the least. Props to the GFS though it's been eyeing this storm for a long time, although it won't hit us it's still pretty good.

[franklin NCwx]

Folks ,

I think that Doc needs a doc. Don't let its past reputation sucker you into complacency about its accuracy. The debacle about 1/2-3 has already been discussed. Now the crazy 12z Euro run has a 1050ish Montana high that maintains it's 1050ish strength all of the way into the Ohio Valley day 10! It is not common for northern Rockies/Plains highs to go all of the way into the Ohio Valley and not weaken at least some. Yet, the Euro has been repeatedly doing that this winter only to verify with a much weaker high in that area. Anyway, this insane run has Chicago and nearby areas having a HIGH temp. on 1/7 of frigid -10's and lows on 1/ 7 and 1/8 of -20's associated with that 1050 mb high that it refuses to weaken. Don't get suckered into a model that just made a major blunder at only days 6-7. Any comments?

larry, the euro has been doing this for about 2/12 years now. It seems to struggle in progressive patterns like we have been in. Until we get into more of an Atlantic blocking split flow pattern like 09-10 the euro should be used with caution every time its shows an extreme solution.

In other news the 12z ukmet looks like a snowstorm. Weak miller a low that slides off the va coast.

[franklin NCwx]

It was fairly shocking to see the Euro Op run with such great support from its ensembles. I think the Euro is the best within 5 days and definitely agree we should wait to get our hopes up until we get multiple model support. Even today the UK/JMA are showing a NC/VA winter storm for the 1/3 event, it is a tough pattern to predict to say the least. Props to the GFS though it's been eyeing this storm for a long time, although it won't hit us it's still pretty good.

its hard to beat the euro ensembles inside day 10.

[WXinCanton]

Folks ,

I think that Doc needs a doc. Don't let its past reputation sucker you into complacency about its accuracy. The debacle about 1/2-3 has already been discussed. Now the crazy 12z Euro run has a 1050ish Montana high that maintains it's 1050ish strength all of the way into the Ohio Valley day 10! It is not common for northern Rockies/Plains highs to go all of the way into the Ohio Valley and not weaken at least some. Yet, the Euro has been repeatedly doing that this winter only to verify with a much weaker high in that area. Anyway, this insane run has Chicago and nearby areas having a HIGH temp. on 1/7 of frigid -10's and lows on 1/ 7 and 1/8 of -20's associated with that 1050 mb high that it refuses to weaken. Don't get suckered into a model that just made a major blunder at only days 6-7. Any comments?

GFS has shown the way for sure with the latest 1/2 1/3 system for sure.  Yes the Euro has really not shown much for how stellar it usually is.  1050 high in the OV is really pushing it, even at 200 hours.  

[nchighcountrywx]

More shares and historic ECMWF imagery fortelling of Frigid Cold from Bastardi on Twitter

ECWMF brings Siberian origin vortex to Great lakes day 9. Similar to severe 1994 outbreak at same time,we referenced http://t.co/VnglMc5EqI

ECMWF has 5k air near -50C poised to come into US in 168 hrs. Dont ever recall seeing that cold at 850mb http://t.co/k7ItsUgSvA

-24 850s in NW NC