packbacker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Kaboodle. Don't get your hopes up. The other models have had plenty of time to get this figured out, and they haven't. Agreed, there is a reason the models aren't doing this, because it ain't happening. Not sure I agree with the cold going anyway in Feb, unfortunately, we probably warm for 7-10 days and then the last 3 weeks are going to be more of the same for us, -EPO has been a staple, cold and snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Based on hour 102 of the 12Z GFS, it is likely going to come in even colder than the prior two runs in the Midwest at least around days 6-7+! Let's see what happens. The GFS doesn't seem to be finished reversing colder. Edit: yesterday's 12Z GFS had Chicago near 32 F at hour 150. Today's 12Z GFS hour 132 has them nearly 28 F colder at near 4 F! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Based on hour 102 of the 12Z GFS, it is likely going to come in even colder than the prior two runs in the Midwest at least around days 6-7+! Let's see what happens. The GFS doesn't seem to be finished reversing colder. And it shears the energy out west to bits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The parade of clippers is ridiculous. Takes the strongest energy west over southern CA and then brings it back east through 138 hrs. By that time, how many clippers come through here? 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GGEM is on its own still, no surprise there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GGEM is on its own still, no surprise there Yep, it's a terrible model. GFS has a repeat in 7 days, woohoo…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So far on the cmc and gfs. Dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So D.C. will get some snow, that will get the I-95 cites from D.C. north at average snow or above. All of this with a +nao. With a +nao there should be storms running inland thru the piedmont. It seems like only the northern mid Atlantic, southern New England, lake belts and southern plains are at average or above in snow. Am I correct? NAO is positive but AO negative. Sometimes the latter is enough, at least for the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We best hope the next 10 days produces a southern stream storm. If not, this may wrap this winter. JB advises this morning cold goes West in February with the predominant SE ridge back in residence. This is the best weather news I've heard in a long time. JB is a terrible forecaster. I'm betting on the southeast looking like Hoth in February after reading his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is the best weather news I've heard in a long time. JB is a terrible forecaster. I'm betting on the southeast looking like Hoth in February after reading his thoughts. Nice Hoth reference! JB has done pretty well so far this year, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is the best weather news I've heard in a long time. JB is a terrible forecaster. I'm betting on the southeast looking like Hoth in February after reading his thoughts.without a southern stream the pattern will be crap. Only storms will come from a -pna and with a +nao they will cut. #fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is the best weather news I've heard in a long time. JB is a terrible forecaster. I'm betting on the southeast looking like Hoth in February after reading his thoughts. Although JB still does have potential clients to make money from (so he's biased to an extent). Since leaving AW; he is MUCH better this year and I enjoy his outlooks. Nothing close to how he was back at AW. He has been more right than wrong this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Based on the 78 hour 12Z Euro, I can already tell it will not produce snow on Saturday like it did on those two Euro runs yesterday. The flow is too WNWerly. If I'm wrong, I'll eat my shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Cuts off and left out west. More northern stream crap coming thru Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow. That is astoundingly bad! Which is why this old man preaches to not even bother looking further than 5 days out and to not take anything seriously more than 3 days out. It makes a winter like this one a lot less frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Cuts off and left out west. More northern stream crap coming thru Minnesota. Where is a kicker wave when you need it! Let me guess at 240 it starts coming out right as the cold is moving out on this side of the Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is the best weather news I've heard in a long time. JB is a terrible forecaster. I'm betting on the southeast looking like Hoth in February after reading his thoughts. All that needs to be said is look at his winter forecast and you will see how bad a forecaster he is. He has owned the pattern all winter weather u or anybody else likes him. He never mentions se as there is nothing to talk about. When a storm for se is on the horizon he will be first to mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Where is a kicker wave when you need it! Let me guess at 240 it starts coming out right as the cold is moving out on this side of the Mississippi.dont worry, we will get a kicker when we don't need one. I think its time to start an enso thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Which is why this old man preaches to not even bother looking further than 5 days out and to not take anything seriously more than 3 days out. It makes a winter like this one a lot less frustrating.I want you to teach me the ways and I want to become a follower and testify! You are a wise man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Can anyone give input on the nam in the link below seems that there is another piece of energy coming through right after tommorows system in time for the weekend... http://weather.unisys.com/nam/nam.php?plot=500&inv=0&t=60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I want you to teach me the ways and I want to become a follower and testify! You are a wise man! All in good time Grasshopper. First, wax my car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 All that needs to be said is look at his winter forecast and you will see how bad a forecaster he is. He has owned the pattern all winter weather u or anybody else likes him. He never mentions se as there is nothing to talk about. When a storm for se is on the horizon he will be first to mention it. Good post. He lives in State College, PA. Majority of his clients both corporate or individuals are in the NE or MA. Therefore, he focuses on those areas. His forecasts place much more emphasis on the pattern than each days weather. Does not always pan out the way he expects it to. Does it always pan the way any met expects it to? Because he does hype a lot, his busts seem like even bigger busts. I know a number of skilled mets that have leaned too heavily on the GFS this winter and have looked really bad for it. If I want an idea of the LR weather pattern, JB is a very good source. He is not always right, but explains his ideas very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 All in good time Grasshopper. First, wax my car.I bet metallica666 waxes on and off pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Can anyone give input on the nam in the link below seems that there is another piece of energy coming through right after tommorows system in time for the weekend... http://weather.unisys.com/nam/nam.php?plot=500&inv=0&t=60 Don't get your hopes up either. Still over the ocean and probably not sampled right and the angle its dropping down on an exiting trough... that will be north of here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What's that little guy down in the gulf at 141 hrs? Maybe he thinks he could make a snow storm for me? Silly little low. Curious to see the ensembles later on, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Lookout around 240+ on 18 z GFS. A lot different with western ridging again holding longer!Edit: well, we're back to showing a major winter storm for some in the SE near the end of Jan. It falls mainly on 1/29. It is mainly snow with heaviest of 4-10" E half of NC with 1-4 western half of NC, 2-4 upstate SC/N SC, and 1-3" N GA north of a line from northern ATL burbs to northside of Athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nice Hoth reference! JB has done pretty well so far this year, though. Has he? I'm wondering if he is still going to lock himself in his hotel room with a bottle of jack and a handgun because of the brutal cold that was totally going to be here in Feb. but now isn't? Wasn't he physically shaking at the cold the models were setting up for in Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Lookout around 240+ on 18 z GFS. A lot different with western ridging again holding longer! Gives the I-85 corridor of upstate and NC around a 6 inch snow it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Has he? I'm wondering if he is still going to lock himself in his hotel room with a bottle of jack and a handgun because of the brutal cold that was totally going to be here in Feb. but now isn't? Wasn't he physically shaking at the cold the models were setting up for in Feb? He did seem very gloom and doom about the upcoming cold and saying it would be more costly than a hurricane when all was said and done!? I know we, I , hang on every run, but he's a professional and should know not to trust models that far out, even if they are all showing something about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wowzers, a pure fluff bomb on the GFS on D9-10. Surface temperatures appear to stay well into the 20s. That would be fun if it happened. Prepare for a 180 at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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