Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Euro has been the only one that has been consistent, and GFS has been all over the place. But if both of them end up showing nothing, then I wish it would just warm up and stay nice. I am sick of this. Tired of it getting exciting in the long range only for the models to take them away. It seems we can't get any snow here unless something just pops up 48 hours beforehand, and even then that will most likely not happen. Well, there's another long duration SE winter storm that will eventually turn into a clipper that trends south and gives us two inches of snow before trending north, leaving us with sprinkles or flurries, at the end of the 0z GFS. So don't lose hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well, there's another long duration SE winter storm that will eventually turn into a clipper that trends south and gives us two inches of snow before trending north, leaving us with sprinkles or flurries, at the end of the 0z GFS. So don't lose hope! Well, that seems to be the pattern we are in now, so no reason to think it will be different. There just seemed to be a lot of excitement last week about this and next week, but now it seems it is going down the drain. I will take what we can get, though, and hopefully this clipper tomorrow will give us something, anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Euro has been the only one that has been consistent, and GFS has been all over the place. But if both of them end up showing nothing, then I wish it would just warm up and stay nice. I am sick of this. Tired of it getting exciting in the long range only for the models to take them away. It seems we can't get any snow here unless something just pops up 48 hours beforehand, and even then that will most likely not happen. You speak as if the models create the weather and they are controlling your life. They are computer generated sets of data that have rather high failure rates the further out you get. Especially on specifics. If they bother you so much, quit paying attention to them. Let your local news and/or the weather channel provide you with your basic weather information. Might be less stressful for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You speak as if the models create the weather and they are controlling your life. They are computer generated sets of data that have rather high failure rates the further out you get. Especially on specifics. If they bother you so much, quit paying attention to them. Let your local news and/or the weather channel provide you with your basic weather information. Might be less stressful for you.He doesn't even look at the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You speak as if the models create the weather and they are controlling your life. They are computer generated sets of data that have rather high failure rates the further out you get. Especially on specifics. If they bother you so much, quit paying attention to them. Let your local news and/or the weather channel provide you with your basic weather information. Might be less stressful for you. Hahaha! You know Brick doesn't pay any attention to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Good point. I have a feeling the Euro will flop, too and the ensembles (both GFS & Euro) will look a bit different. It's interesting, because when I saw the 00z GFS image I posted above, I thought to myself...I've seen that setup being advertised before. I know the 00z GFS eventually kills the ridge, but compare this run to the 12z Euro run from yesterday same time period. Open both the images in separate tabs and switch back and forth. How close is that? Just something I've noticed. Is the GFS really that slow behind the Euro? Geeze, the ao is screaming negative on that image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We can always hope the Canadian is sniffing something out though it seems to have had a bad nose most of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You speak as if the models create the weather and they are controlling your life. They are computer generated sets of data that have rather high failure rates the further out you get. Especially on specifics. If they bother you so much, quit paying attention to them. Let your local news and/or the weather channel provide you with your basic weather information. Might be less stressful for you. Almost everyone else was excited about how things looked for the last two weeks of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Burger, I hate to side with the Canadian, but I don't think it's solution is unreasonable. I'm still interested in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Did anyone else notice the 00z GFS ensemble members? 5 of the 12 members give the SE a major snow storm in the 108 to 132 hour time frame. Very similar to the GGEM. Maybe all hope is not lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The indices today are meh. +PNA giving way to a -PNA in a week or so. The MJO is going into phase 6, I believe we want it in phases 7,8, and 1. Originally it was projected to go in those phases. It tries to go into phase 7, but hits a dead end. The AO looks better today, more spread between negative and positive instead of every GFS ensemble member going positive yesterday. Not saying anything about the NAO, because we already know what that looks like. The PII looks to significantly increase on Tuesday, well into the positive territory (+4SD) then slowly decrease, back to negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We can always hope the Canadian is sniffing something out though it seems to have had a bad nose most of this winter. Cant see 500 mb vort maps, but this comes from the wave/energy that comes over the top of the pac ridge mid week. other models hold it back over the sw. Just need a piece to break off or better yet the whole kit and koobutle to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The indices today are meh. +PNA giving way to a -PNA in a week or so. The MJO is going into phase 6, I believe we want it in phases 7,8, and 1. Originally it was projected to go in those phases. It tries to go into phase 7, but hits a dead end. The AO looks better today, more spread between negative and positive instead of every GFS ensemble member going positive yesterday. Not saying anything about the NAO, because we already know what that looks like. The PII looks to significantly increase on Tuesday, well into the positive territory (+4SD) then slowly decrease, back to negative.I will gladly take a -pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Almost everyone else was excited about how things looked for the last two weeks of the month. Everyone that wants winter weather is going to be encouraged when the models show a favorable pattern and "POTENTIAL" storms. To expect those "POTENTIAL" storms to verify in the SE is a different thing. I am excited about the last two weeks of the month. It is going to be cold. I like cold in the winter. Hard to get snow here with a SE ridge or a zonal flow with cold air trapped in Canada. We will have neither of those the rest of the month. Our chances are usually much worse than what we will have for the next two weeks. If you ride each model run (or what people say about each model run) you will need to take medicine for motion sickness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 JB posted this run of the GFS ENS on his Twitter. On the right, the forecast from 10 days ago valid Jan 25th....on the left, the 120h forecast: (slightly different) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 JB posted this run of the GFS ENS on his Twitter. On the right, the 10 day forecast for Jan 25th....on the left, the 120h forecast: (slightly different) 10day.png Uhh what? Significantly different and that is 16 days out, unless you posted the wrong thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So D.C. will get some snow, that will get the I-95 cites from D.C. north at average snow or above. All of this with a +nao. With a +nao there should be storms running inland thru the piedmont. It seems like only the northern mid Atlantic, southern New England, lake belts and southern plains are at average or above in snow. Am I correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Uhh what? Significantly different and that is 16 days out, unless you posted the wrong thing.the one on the right is the gefs forecast from January 9th. He is illustrating how bad the gfs runs were then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Everyone that wants winter weather is going to be encouraged when the models show a favorable pattern and "POTENTIAL" storms. To expect those "POTENTIAL" storms to verify in the SE is a different thing. I am excited about the last two weeks of the month. It is going to be cold. I like cold in the winter. Hard to get snow here with a SE ridge or a zonal flow with cold air trapped in Canada. We will have neither of those the rest of the month. Our chances are usually much worse than what we will have for the next two weeks. If you ride each model run (or what people say about each model run) you will need to take medicine for motion sickness.this pattern is a dry and cold pattern with no southern stream. The ridge retrograding looks bleak now. If you like cold, enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Uhh what? Significantly different and that is 16 days out, unless you posted the wrong thing. He as being sarcastic. One thing I disagree with is JB shouldn't try to prove a point about the Euro being better if he uses an image way outside the Euro's 10 day range. He should compare 240 to 240, at most. If I had a dollar every time the Euro Control was terrible outside of 240.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 the one on the right is the gefs forecast from January 9th. He is illustrating how bad the gfs runs were then. Yeah, I changed the wording a bit so it's a bit more understandable. Sorry for the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 He as being sarcastic. One thing I disagree with is JB shouldn't try to prove a point about the Euro being better if he uses an image way outside the Euro's 10 day range. He should compare 240 to 240, at most. If I had a dollar every time the Euro Control was terrible outside of 240.... I agree, fwiw, Jon. I think this should give pause to those that sees fantasy storms on the GFS beyond truncation and buy into it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We best hope the next 10 days produces a southern stream storm. If not, this may wrap this winter. JB advises this morning cold goes West in February with the predominant SE ridge back in residence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Oh my bad. I'm not even going to tell you all what I thought that post said. But JB, didn't really use a valid comparison. Really the 384 hours GFS!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Oh my bad. I'm not even going to tell you all what I thought that post said. But JB, didn't really use a valid comparison. Really the 384 hours GFS!?? your missing what he is trying to show us about the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 He as being sarcastic. One thing I disagree with is JB shouldn't try to prove a point about the Euro being better if he uses an image way outside the Euro's 10 day range. He should compare 240 to 240, at most. If I had a dollar every time the Euro Control was terrible outside of 240....jb uses the euro ensembles. Which are very good, but have their faults. The op euro past day 5 Is average at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 JB posted this run of the GFS ENS on his Twitter. On the right, the forecast from 10 days ago valid Jan 25th....on the left, the 120h forecast: (slightly different) 10day.png JB must have read my posts lol. He is doing the same general comparison I did in both the SE's Arctic 2 thread and in the main BB's winter's thread yesterday except I compared the GFS op. 12Z 1/9's very warm 11-15 with the 12Z 1/19's 1-5, which cover the same period. The warm bust for the 1/9 GFS runs in the 11-15, which had a strong torch, will verify to be astoundingly bad. Chicago/NYC are now 34/31 F colder at 850 for this FIVE day period. Go here if interested and you'd see the map comparison as it is laughable: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41600-winter-2013-14-medium-range-discussion/?p=2649971 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 JB must have read my posts lol. He is doing the same general comparison I did in both the SE's Arctic 2 thread and in the main BB's winter's thread yesterday except I compared the GFS op. 12Z 1/9's very warm 11-15 with the 12Z 1/19's 1-5, which cover the same period. The warm bust for the 1/9 GFS runs in the 11-15, which had a strong torch, will verify to be astoundingly bad. Chicago/NYC are now 34/31 F colder for this FIVE day period. Go here if interested and you'd see the map comparison as it is laughable: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41600-winter-2013-14-medium-range-discussion/?p=2649971 Wow. That is astoundingly bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Cant see 500 mb vort maps, but this comes from the wave/energy that comes over the top of the pac ridge mid week. other models hold it back over the sw. Just need a piece to break off or better yet the whole kit and koobutle to come out.Kaboodle. Don't get your hopes up. The other models have had plenty of time to get this figured out, and they haven't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We best hope the next 10 days produces a southern stream storm. If not, this may wrap this winter. JB advises this morning cold goes West in February with the predominant SE ridge back in residence. The se ridge hasn't went anywhere.... after each system moves through the nws mentions a ridge building then the next system come and puches it out and comes back... the cold air has kept it in check but its still out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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