Poimen Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Euro actually looks halfway descent for Wed. Has all of NC with probably .20 of precip. which should be snow for everyone. freezing sfc temps run up 85 west. Do you mean Tuesday/Tuesday night? I don't see anything for Wednesday on any of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Do you mean Tuesday/Tuesday night? I don't see anything for Wednesday on any of the guidance. I was just being general. It goes between 18z Tuesday into 6z Wednesday when it's exiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I was just being general. It goes between 18z Tuesday into 6z Wednesday when it's exiting.What did you think of the 6Z GFS starting around 114? Look at TX. That wasn't on there on previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I was just being general. It goes between 18z Tuesday into 6z Wednesday when it's exiting. Thanks. I was just looking for clarification to make sure I wasn't missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Sunday therapy part 2 (3 for N GA): Folks, 0Z Euro ens. mean and 0Z/6Z GFS ens means all show a Gulfish system for 1/25 threatening wintry precip. for parts of mainly inland SE. I'd be more excited if there were a high to the north. Regardless, at least there is a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I think it’s obvious now that we need that shortwave(or at least a piece of that energy) dropping down into the ridge out west to immediately eject east if we want snow. If that feature stall’s or retrogrades back west the cold air will be gone before it gets here. Basically, all the major global models stall it out west except for the Euro. The good news is you can tell this will be very chaotic on the models over the next few days as they are all over the place with what happens to it in the 4 to 7 day period. Another good sign is that the Euro is ejecting a piece of it. Especially when the Euro normally leaves energy in the Southwest too long before ejecting it. Another thing we need is for the cold blast next week to not sink too far south. If we get lucky and the shortwave ejects soon enough, we will also potentially have to worry about it getting sheared out/suppressed. Fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Agreed. When I first saw that little bowling ball, I was amazed how long it sat there. When I first saw it, the models had it from 102 to at least 300, pretty much not moving. Thought that was a little hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 What did you think of the 6Z GFS starting around 114? Look at TX. That wasn't on there on previous runs. Atleast it's catching on. We need it to not sheer out that energy rolling east.let's see if the 12z still has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Agreed. When I first saw that little bowling ball, I was amazed how long it sat there. When I first saw it, the models had it from 102 to at least 300, pretty much not moving. Thought that was a little hard to believe. It's one thing to not have it move and just spin it self out. It's a whole different thing to have it roll out back to the Pacific! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 If you have a weak stomach, don't look at today's long range AO/PNA predictions. Basically it breaks down our PNA ridge and send the AO very positive. This would imply "torch city" for most of the US. However, I will not be convinced until the Euro caves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 If you have a weak stomach, don't look at today's long range AO/PNA predictions. Basically it breaks down our PNA ridge and send the AO very positive. This would imply "torch city" for most of the US. However, I will not be convinced until the Euro caves. Just so all are clear, I'm assuming these are just the GFS ensemble based predictions. Am I right? Also, keep in mind that it got quite cold in part of Dec. with a -PNA and +AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Just so all are clear, I'm assuming these are just the GFS ensemble based predictions. Am I right? Also, keep in mind that it got quite cold in part of Dec. with a -PNA and +AO. Yes, same thing as reading a GFS ensemble NH map. Instead of heading to the pole like the Euro ens mean, the GFS 06z mean has the ridge out west just collapsing and the AO going positive. It will be interesting to watch how positive those heights get over the aleutians, because the GFS and Euro means both have that....obviously we can't have a large ridge there or we're going to get a -PNA. On the GFS ens with the deep ridge over the aleutians and the ridge over the atlantic, they're linking over the SE US and keeping the +AO and giving us a torch. The own GEFS control has a different look last frame, as it compensates the deep aleutian (and west) ridge with a trough east, allowing the +PNA to rebuild. Who knows what's going to happen but if anything I doubt the GFS and I'd go with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Not trying to be a bummer, but the indices (CPC site) do not look good for any prolonged cold (for LR). NAO looks to go positive and stay positive. Currently slight negative or neutral PNA looks to go solidly negative. Currently solidly positive AO looks to go solidly positive. Currently solidly negative. What I see from these readings actually supports the GFS. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 the 12z GFS is handling things much differently out west with the energy, or I should say 2 pieces of energy. It splits our s/w in the pacific and then throws them into each other in the southwest. Very unusual evolution lol. the trend is obvious in bringing some of this energy into Texas though which is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 As Jon mentions, the teleconnection indices on the CPC page are solely based on the GFS ensemble members. It would be best to compare them with the Euro Ensemble as seen on AmericanWx or Weatherbell model pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Not a ton of good news from the 12z Goofy...but it tries to pop something down in the Gulf of Mexico but it goes poof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Not much good news from the 12z Goofy...it tries to pop something down in the Gulf of Mexico but it goes poof!Looks like it gives TX a winter storm, then it goes poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Looks like it gives TX a winter storm, then it goes poof. It seemed very close to me though, an improvement from previous runs anyway. It still wants to hang the main s/w out on the west coast and shear it but it is oh so close to ejecting it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Not a ton of good news from the 12z Goofy...but it tries to pop something down in the Gulf of Mexico but it goes poof! It has the precip just sit over Texas for many hours probably giving Dallas a historic storm. I would say this looks suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Not a ton of good news from the 12z Goofy...but it tries to pop something down in the Gulf of Mexico but it goes poof!Kind of like the long range mega cold. I guess it's GFS vs Euro? Hope the Euro is correct with the ridge and next weekends" potential "? I guess the fact that they both kinda sorta have something around the gulf is good at this point. Anxiously awaiting Bricks analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Looks like it gives TX a winter storm, then it goes poof. Yeah...congrats Dallas. Back when I was a kid (in the 80's), our local TV Met used to always get excited when it snowed in Dallas. Those type of storms would always slide east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yeah...congrats Dallas. Back when I was a kid (in the 80's), our local TV Met used to always get excited when it snowed in Dallas. Those type of storms would always slide east. LOL I remember the good ole days when the only LR forecasting we had was the 5 day forecast on TWC and we always wanted to see snow in TX, and N MS and AL as that meant we had a chance. Overall though things are looking decent for the next few weeks and I still think we get a couple of snows in the SE the bottom line is the models just wont see the ones that get us until they are inside 48 hrs or so, kinda like what is happening with the Tues storm. The models saw it but they cant tell what it will be until it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It has the precip just sit over Texas for many hours probably giving Dallas a historic storm. I would say this looks suspect. The cutoff sits in Cali for days, still there day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 just days ago it was looking like historic events would take place toward the end of Jan. and Feb. lots of cold and potential for great southern storms. did it all go poof? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I am an optimistic person, but what is being portrayed isn't a snow pattern. The biggest problem is the ridging that was projected to retrograde a few days ago isn't. It basically sets up our polar vortex to do one of two things, neither of which are good......unfortunately. 1. The vortex sits just to our northeast, basically creating a meat grinder for anything coming east (as shown by the 12z GFS) Or 2. The PV is further north and/or east, allowing something to amplify better as it comes east, but also putting us into the situation where cold air isn't as available, meaning rain is as possible, maybe even more possible than snow/ice. We need the whole setup to shift west over time. Unfortunately I am not seeing that right now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Not trying to be a bummer, but the indices (CPC site) do not look good for any prolonged cold (for LR). NAO looks to go positive and stay positive. Currently slight negative or neutral PNA looks to go solidly negative. Currently solidly positive AO looks to go solidly positive. Currently solidly negative. What I see from these readings actually supports the GFS. Hope I'm wrong. Aren't said readings generated by the GFS Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Sun. therapy part 3 (4 for N GA): fwiw, the 12Z GFS is like night and day vs. the prior three runs during the 11-15 in that it is much colder as ridging gets reestablished in the west. Included in this is a big Arctic outbreak that brings 850's down to -16C at RDU and -12 C at ATL on 2/3 with lows of 13 in ATL and RDU on 2/4. Temp.'s never get above 30 on 2/3 at ATL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Sun. therapy part 3 (4 for N GA): fwiw, the 12Z GFS is like night and day vs. the prior three runs during the 11-15 in that it is much colder as ridging gets reestablished in the west. Included in this is a big Arctic outbreak that brings 850's down to -16C at RDU and -12 C at ATL on 2/3 with lows of 13 in ATL and RDU on 2/4. Temp.'s never get above 30 on 2/3 at ATL! Even though it's fantasy land time frame it's hard not to notice. Major change from last 3-4 runs that almost looked like they wanted to go to a full blown pattern change. We'll see what happens with later runs but at least a halt in momentum to the LR mini-torch idea it had been hinting at and I can't see how that's not a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Next weekend is gonna be our biggest window of opportunity. It's all on this piece of energy coming over the top of the pac ridge middle week. We will have to wait it out a few days once it gets sampled better to see if it's going to eject east. Euro is getting close so don't hedge your bets one way or the other just yet. Also maybe the sref & 0z Euro has sniffed something out for Tues night that can get the ground white for those of us east of the mtns. But to me the weekend opportunity offers the best hope. I'd be cautious buying into Feb torch just based off american guidance. If the euro ensembles start advertising then it's even more critical that next weekend pan out due to the fact winter winds down in a hurry over the coarse of Feb outside of elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 From my earlier post today on the 06z GFS/ensemble : "The own GEFS control has a different look last frame, as it compensates the deep aleutian (and west) ridge with a trough east, allowing the +PNA to rebuild" Here's the image from that: Now look at the 06z GFS OP: Now you see what's happening with the 12z GFS OP look in the LR.. . The GFS, its ensembles, CPC site....all can't be trusted for the LR due to this constant flip flop. Anything is possible at the moment and I'd go to vegas with ANYTHING the Euro says because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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