Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

[tarheelwx]

DT posted on FB that GfS is wrong. Example he used was GFS about 10 or 12 days ago showing torch coming up. He then shows what is now expected..... Dramatically different.

I'd recommend those not liking Jb's tweets to not follow JB. Just sayin'

TW

[burgertime]

Euro looks awfully close to something bigger on Wed. night just looking at the sfc maps. Looks like it was close to phase. 

[MillerA]

Euro looks awfully close to something bigger on Wed. night just looking at the sfc maps. Looks like it was close to phase.

Nothing else from the euro?

[franklin NCwx]

Nothing else from the euro?

cold and dry. Northern stream continues to give us the middle finger. No southern stream, no snow. Wake me up when we get an Nino.

[Jon]

cold and dry. Northern stream continues to give us the middle finger. No southern stream, no snow. Wake me up when we get an Nino.

Not so fast.

 

Close to something big around 240 due to the critter over Texas at 204hrs. This is a run or two away from blowing up somewhere. GFS is unbelievably out to lunch for the upcoming pattern, Euro is king.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Like Grit said yesterday and I agree nothing but cold and dry. No southern stream you can't expect a winter storm in the SE! Not that it can't happen by some freak clipper diving down in the gulf, but how often does that happen? 

[GaWx]

Great news regarding cold on the Euro. It even has an additional cold high coming down at 240. So, maybe this is a sign the GFS and its ens. are in lala land like it was in some of those warmer runs 9 days ago. Opinions?

Edit: GFS had very little of the upcoming cold on those runs 8-9 days ago. It had a semi-torch!! So, keep hope alive but accept whatever happens because one should enjoy the wx as it is the only wx one gets!

[BIG FROSTY]

Great news regarding cold on the Euro. It even has an additional cold high coming down at 240. So, maybe this is a sign the GFS and it's ens. are in lala land like it was in some of those warmer runs 9 days ago. Opinions?

well sooner or later the GFS is going to be right on the warm up! But is this the time or next? lol

[GaWx]

well sooner or later the GFS is going to be right on the warm up! But is this the time or next? lol

 

 Based on the repeated pattern, I'm guessing that the GFS will mostly get colder from here like it did after last week's debacle runs albeit maybe in baby steps. For goodness sakes, it had those runs with 1-2 day long major winter storms in the SE during the last few days of Jan and now it has 70's? Bogaga....or as Bevo would say, bollocks regarding these warm GFS runs!

 

 The warm water is still out in the E PAC. We're in a repeating pattern.

[BullCityWx]

GSP is highlighting a cold wave possible in their latest HWO. 

[GaWx]

Folks,

 I think it is time for some Saturday PM therapy. Well, part one was from the Good Doctor, itself. It was quite cold and much more slowly breaking down the western ridge vs. Goofy.

 

 Part 2: Doc ensembles from 12Z continue to show cold air/nice high pressure over NW Canada and it then moving SEward into the north-central US late in the 11-15 with sights on the E US. It actually looks better than the 0Z version for then. Also, it and the 12Z GFS ens. for the 11-15 are much colder vs. the 12Z op. GFS with near normal for the SE overall vs. the troch.

 

 Part 3 is from JB, who I must admit put together a pretty good video a little while ago. (See, I don't hate the guy even though I think he hypes cold and extremes too much due to a bias.) He's harping on that very warm E PAC water. This tells him no blowtorch and at least continued back and forth for the SE and as well as cold dominated in the Midwest. So, we continue in a battlezone, which would keep the SE's hopes alive for wintry going into Feb. JB's been strong this winter and I find it hard to suddenly disagree with him.

 

 http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-january-18-2014

 

Opinions?

 

Oh, and part 4: Enjoy the weather as it is the only wx you've got.

[nchighcountrywx]

From NWS GSP

GSP's had January snow in 91 years on record, 62 of which had 0.1" or more. Only 22 years had no January snow.

CLT's had January snow in 109 years on record, 74 of which had .01" or more. Only 27 years had no January snow.

AVL's had January snow in 123 years on record, 100 of those with 0.1" or more. AVL had no January snow in only 8 years.

[dsaur]

Folks,

 I think it is time for some Saturday PM therapy. Well, part one was from the Good Doctor, itself. It was quite cold and much more slowly breaking down the western ridge vs. Goofy.

 

 Part 2: Doc ensembles from 12Z continue to show cold air/nice high pressure over NW Canada and it then moving SEward into the north-central US late in the 11-15 with sights on the E US. It actually looks better than the 0Z version for then. Also, it and the 12Z GFS ens. for the 11-15 are much colder vs. the 12Z op. GFS with near normal for the SE overall vs. the troch.

 

 Part 3 is from JB, who I must admit put together a pretty good video a little while ago. (See, I don't hate the guy even though I think he hypes cold and extremes too much due to a bias.) He's harping on that very warm E PAC water. This tells him no blowtorch and at least continued back and forth for the SE and as well as cold dominated in the Midwest. So, we continue in a battlezone, which would keep the SE's hopes alive for wintry going into Feb. JB's been strong this winter and I find it hard to suddenly disagree with him.

 

 http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-january-18-2014

 

Opinions?

 

Oh, and part 4: Enjoy the weather as it is the only wx you've got.

My opinion is looking out past two or three days is fraught with danger, lol.  Things change daily....but if this is a normal winter it will be cold, it will be warm, and we will have one or two chances at something fun.  If it gets cloudy tomorrow, I'll go out and look, and, again Tues, or so.  That's about all the forward looking that makes sense   But I'm betting I won't stay dry for a week to 10 days.  T

[GaWx]

Don't look now but the 18z Goofy has a massive 1055 MB high first plunging down into the northern Rockies 2/1 and moving we from there. This is for entert. mainly but it shows how fast things can change in earlyFeb. Euro/GFS ens. mean at 12z agree.

[Brick Tamland]

Didn't the GFS and Euro both show big storms for the last week of Jan yesterday?

[GaWx]

Bonus therapy! The honorable Mr. Sutherland, who doesn't hype, gives us a very reassuring gift regarding cold:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41600-winter-2013-14-medium-range-discussion/?p=2648388

[Brick Tamland]

Bonus therapy! The honorable Mr. Sutherland, who doesn't hype, gives us a very reassuring gift regarding cold:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41600-winter-2013-14-medium-range-discussion/?p=2648388

Sounds good for the midatlantic and northeast, but just because it might get cold here doesn't mean we are going to see snow here. I guess you have to get the cold first, though, to have a chance.

[Hvward]

Finally, the guidance points to the development of a PNA- toward the close of January. However, some recent forecasts toward that end didn't verify. The pattern evolution might be slower than what the guidance currently shows, especially if historic experience is representative. Since 1950, there were 6 PNA+ ridges that developed in the 1/1-1/20 timeframe and peaked at +1.3 or higher. The median duration was 25 days and the mean duration was 22.7 days. The shortest was 18 days (2009) and the longest was 39 days (1961). The current PNA+ ridge developed January 13, so odds probably favor the PNA's remaining positive through the rest of January. That outcome would be consistent with the ECMWF, which is slower to bring moderation than the GFS.

 

 

You gotta love history.

[POWERSTROKE]

Don't look now but the 18z Goofy has a massive 1055 MB high first plunging down into the northern Rockies 2/1 and moving we from there. This is for entert. mainly but it shows how fast things can change in earlyFeb. Euro/GFS ens. mean at 12z agree.

That would be great but goofy has been wrong most of winter and besides no model has been accurate outside five days. I hope its right but not going to buy it until a lot closer

[GaWx]

Sat. Wx therapy part 6 (free of charge):

 

 Fwiw, the 18Z GEFS is much colder than the 18Z GFS op. and has near normal overall for the SE in the 11-15 after a very cold 6-10. Actually, looking at two meters, it stays below normal through 1/29, then normal 1/30-2/1, then back to below 2/2-3. During the 11-15, it has ample high pressure moving down from NW Canada into the N Plains day 11 that makes it to the Ohio Valley by days 13-4. Then a second NW Canadian high comes down into the N. Plains days 15-16 fwiw.

[superjames1992]

Sat. Wx therapy part 6 (free of charge):

 

 Fwiw, the 18Z GEFS is much colder than the 18Z GFS op. and has near normal overall for the SE in the 11-15 after a very cold 6-10. Actually, looking at two meters, it stays below normal through 1/29, then normal 1/30-2/1, then back to below 2/2-3. During the 11-15, it has ample high pressure moving down from NW Canada into the N Plains day 11 that makes it to the Ohio Valley by days 13-4. Then a second NW Canadian high comes down into the N. Plains days 15-16 fwiw.

 

Yeah, looking at the ensembles, there isn't a single five-day period where the 2m temperature anomaly isn't at least a couple degrees Celsius below average.  It's a little colder in the mid-South than in the deeper South, but all are solidly below average.

[mackerel_sky]

Sat. Wx therapy part 6 (free of charge):

Fwiw, the 18Z GEFS is much colder than the 18Z GFS op. and has near normal overall for the SE in the 11-15 after a very cold 6-10. Actually, looking at two meters, it stays below normal through 1/29, then normal 1/30-2/1, then back to below 2/2-3. During the 11-15, it has ample high pressure moving down from NW Canada into the N Plains day 11 that makes it to the Ohio Valley by days 13-4. Then a second NW Canadian high comes down into the N. Plains days 15-16 fwiw.

Is # 7 gonna be free as well ? I may need it in an hour.

[Chattownsnow]

individual GFS members on the 18z are really all over the place. some show average temps in the LR some very cold, some dry and some wetter. it's a fairly sizable spread from the looks of it. I see no members showing snow for the 15th-18th time frame but most do show a low in the gulf to some degree. the GFS really should not be looked at with any degree of confidence past 5 days still.

 

Edit: sorry this is what I saw on the 12z ensemble members.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

individual GFS members on the 18z are really all over the place. some show average temps in the LR some very cold, some dry and some wetter. it's a fairly sizable spread from the looks of it. I see no members showing snow for the 15th-18th time frame but most do show a low in the gulf to some degree. the GFS really should not be looked at with any degree of confidence past 5 days still.

 

Edit: sorry this is what I saw on the 12z ensemble members.

Today is the 18th.... Did you mean 25th-28th?

[Chattownsnow]

Today is the 18th.... Did you mean 25th-28th?

yeah, sorry. it's past my bed time lol

[Chattownsnow]

I think I recall looking at ensemble members around the same time out on the GFS for the last arctic outbreak and they were far more varied last time, which is a good sign. the euro, while I don't have access to ensembles, was very consistent in for the 6-10 days out time frame from what I heard of other posters with access. You would have to think that bodes well for at least the cold sticking around a longer to allow more time for a storm to roll through.

[GaWx]

Is # 7 gonna be free as well ? I may need it in an hour.

 

 Yes, Saturday therapy item # 7 is free and hot off of the press, thanks to Larry Cosgrove:

 

 

"While it may seem that tropical forcing mechanisms in the Pacific and Atlantic Basins have weakened, that does not necessarily imply that cold air drainage chances for the eastern two-thirds of North America will lessen. In fact, the expansive and energetic Madden-Julian oscillation signal is showing linkage with a storm complex below the Aleutian Islands, which may mean potential ridge building in Alaska and British Columbia into the longer term. And that event ties in where I think the most recent numerical model runs may be mistaken in implying a semizonal pattern will set up with more rain for parched California and milder air for the frigid Midwest and Northeast.

 

Evidence the somewhat colder depictions of the 12z Jan 18 ECMWF and GGEM ensemble groups (a sharp turn for the European series, which at 0z looked downright balmy for much of the nation), and the chillier 18z Jan 18 run of the GFS variant package, which wants to keep a (weakened) ridge along the West Coast. I have noticed that impressive -WPO and -AO signals remain on all of the computer schemes and their respective variations, which teleconnects well with a cAk vortex over Manitoba. So while some volatility will arise with brief warm-ups from the lower/middle Great Plains into the East Coast, Arctic intrusions will still have important impacts, especially between the Continental Divide and Appalachian Mountains."

[NCSNOW]

One possibility to have a shot at snow next weekend is to watch the models(esp Euro). look for a upper level disturbance coming down over the pac ridge middle of the week. GSP AFD talks about it and how the euro op holds it back sw, which is a known bias. Not sure if euro ensemble members are seeing the same piece of enegy and if they hold it back.

[Marion_NC_WX]

One possibility to have a shot at snow next weekend is to watch the models(esp Euro). look for a upper level disturbance coming down over the pac ridge middle of the week. GSP AFD talks about it and how the euro op holds it back sw, which is a known bias. Not sure if euro ensemble members are seeing the same piece of enegy and if they hold it back.

 

 

 

0z GFS through 168 continues with the idea of our western system cutting off from the flow and just sitting off the coast of Southern California...that, my snow lovers is the missing piece to our puzzle.

 

[Jon]

While some may be discouraged at first glance of a dry 12z OP Euro run today, the good news is the ensembles haven't come close to the OP's amount of snow/precip since the 00z run yesterday on the 17th, for most sites I look up.

 

A prime example is RDU, ensembles are getting snowier with each run...while the OP snow is basically non-existant, the ensemble mean hits 1.0" by 180hrs, and there are two ensembles with 9.0" or more snowfall within 240hrs, and around five ensembles w/ 4-6" events and a handful of 2" or more. There are only 6 members without snow, leaving 88% of the ensemble members with snow.