GaWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 and for Atlanta ? ice or just plain rain ? Taken literally on 1/29, I think it is a very cold rain changing to a mix at KATL and ending as very light snow. 0.26" of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I noticed the timing of the GFS was off for the Jan 25th-26th timeframe, however the Canadians have jumped on board with the idea of a southern system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The Canadian has another massive storm around 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The Canadian has another massive storm around 180. Yep, for fun and for the record, I was looking at it for the ATL-AHN corridor though it is the inferior Canadian aka "The Crazy Uncle". With out the superior Euro and GFS backing it, I generally consider it mainly just entertainment. Nevertheless, considering the anticipated great pattern of very cold highs coming down and GOM moisture trying to overrun it as well as keeping in mind neutral negative climo for late January, I am on the lookout for a potential major ZR for N GA and nearby areas. Whereas this model dumps very heavy snow just to the north where 850's are below 0 C, it gives the ATL-AHN corridor what appears to be IP and ZR thanks to CAD. The northern burbs appear to get mostly IP while the city as well as southern burbers like Tony get mainly ZR. (Don't shoot the messenger, Tony. Just shoot the Crazy Uncle instead.) Total qpf is sizable at 0.75". So, this as modeled by the Crazy Uncle would likely be a sig. to major IP/ZR for the ATL-AHN corridor on 1/24/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Now on to the more respectable Euro/Good Doctor: it is bringing a long duration of mainly dry, semi-stupid cold 1/21-4 due to back to back highs. Then it brings down a massive Arctic outbreak from NW Canada at hour 192-204, but this one isn't coming down into the SE as of hour 204 fwiw. Edit: The Euro really flattens the trough associated with that Arctic outbreak. So, that Arctic air never gets that far south. The flow becomes zonal. Obviously, I'm not crazy about the end of this run and neither will most here. but it will change with the next one thank goodness lol. I'm going to pretend I didn't see it so I'll sleep better tonight. I expect JB and others to essentially call it cr*p. We'll see. Folks, please make sure Brick doesn't see this post. I really, really hope he is fast asleep for his sake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The concerning part about this is that the euro was the first to latch on to the extreme cold a week or two ago, hopefully it's not right about the trough/cold being muted now. Maybe just a hiccup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The concerning part about this is that the euro was the first to latch on to the extreme cold a week or two ago, hopefully it's not right about the trough/cold being muted now. Maybe just a hiccup? Mack, I'm betting pretty heavily it is a hiccup, but we'll see. If not, oh cr*p, there goes the threat of a major winter storm for the SE during the 1/26-31 period down the old johnny flusher. I think we'll like today's12Z Euro much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I for one hope the euro is right. All of this cold and no snow really gets old after awhile. Ok, Brick...oops.... I mean snow. Are you two related? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Probably has to do with ridging out ahead of that massive storm moving east in the Pacific. Looks like it turns things zonalish. I wouldn't worry unless the Ensembles/control change things. There's going to be different solutions from run to run when you're dealing with some large global pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Probably has to do with ridging out ahead of that massive storm moving east in the Pacific. Looks like it turns things zonalish. I wouldn't worry unless the Ensembles/control change things. There's going to be different solutions from run to run when you're dealing with some large global pattern changes. I know its one model run but the Euro ensembles went very much like the operational in breaking down the very amped flow in the Pacific...6z GFS looks similar as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I know its one model run but the Euro ensembles went very much like the operational in breaking down the very amped flow in the Pacific...6z GFS looks similar as well. However, I just looked at the Euro ensembles and it appears that the 0Z Euro operational is a warm outlier for the SE US with too much zonal flow. Therefore, chants of "ice ice baby" continue in the CAD regions of NC/SC/GA. The largest threat appears to be for ~1/30-31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 However, I just looked at the Euro ensembles and it appears that the 0Z Euro operational is a warm outlier for the SE US with too much zonal flow. Therefore, chants of ice, ice, baby continue in the CAD regions of NC/SC/GA. The largest threat appears to be for ~1/30-31. Glade the ensembles are still showing the good pattern We should expect the models to waver some in depicting the upcoming LR pattern. But I really wish the 12z Euro and 6z GFS didn't waver warm near the same time. Really looking forward to the 12z runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Now on to the more respectable Euro/Good Doctor: it is bringing a long duration of mainly dry, semi-stupid cold 1/21-4 due to back to back highs. Then it brings down a massive Arctic outbreak from NW Canada at hour 192-204, but this one isn't coming down into the SE as of hour 204 fwiw. Edit: The Euro really flattens the trough associated with that Arctic outbreak. So, that Arctic air never gets that far south. The flow becomes zonal. Obviously, I'm not crazy about the end of this run and neither will most here. but it will change with the next one thank goodness lol. I'm going to pretend I didn't see it so I'll sleep better tonight. I expect JB and others to essentially call it cr*p. We'll see. Folks, please make sure Brick doesn't see this post. I really, really hope he is fast asleep for his sake! I sure hope the Good Doc hasn't called Lucy again. We'll see, but if he has boy oh boy will there be a lot of crow for some folks(self included) to eat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 6z GFS takes all major winter weather threats away. Much of the area sees less than .10 of precip through the next 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 That is the risk anyone takes with the time frame that was showing during the previous model runs. I am looking for the time frame to be established first. Thought that was happening yesterday, but last nights runs backed off... Lets see what today brings.... I sure hope the Good Doc hasn't called Lucy again. We'll see, but if he has boy oh boy will there be a lot of crow for some folks(self included) to eat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 CMC snowfall map has northern GA, upstate SC and almost all of NC in 4+ inches of snow. Gotta hope it's on to something. Considering the Euro was very close yesterday at around the same time frame it might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 That's pretty pathetic. Fine to use wxsouth's thoughts, but you've got to quote him / give him credit. Personally, the upcoming pattern looks more cold and dry-ish to me instead of cold and wintry. No -NAO is still going to be a problem. If the flow relaxes along the east coast allowing a storm to come out of the southern plains, you likely lose the cold air and areas to our northwest get hit...if the flow doesn't relax, it stays cold and dry-ish...let's see what happens though. it would really be nice to see a true southern stream. All the storms were from a -pna earlier this year. Without a southern stream we are really relying on luck from the northern stream. We know how that usually works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I'm not sure what all the disaster talk was about earlier. Maybe I'm missing something, but none of the models are any sort of disaster, IMO. I guess if the analysis is predicated on whether or not the model shows fantasy snowstorms, then yeah, there were a couple of disaster runs. But none of the models show any sort of warm or torching in the LR. The PV is generally in Central or SE Canada, depending on which model you review. I was expecting to see the Euro show a GOA low, SE ridge and an end to winter. Granted, it is a different depiction than yesterday, but it's not a very warm one (240 image below). Today's 12 z 240 will most likely look different still. The CFS looks colder for Feb in the east. All four weeks are solidly below normal. Weeks 1 and 2 are below in precip and weeks 3 and 4 are normal or above for most of the SE. The AO looks to remain generally negative, the NAO is shown to stay positive, and the PNA is positive before falling in the LR. Some models take the MJO into Phase 6 and propogate into Phase 7 before returning to the COD. I'd like to see it go to Phase 8 and 1, but we'll see how it goes. The Posting Intensity Index is neutral/slightly positive, so that's good. 240 Euro (not a disaster): You can see the huge AK block with a huge vortex underneath. There will be energy in the flow. There is a nice zone of HP across southern Canada and the northern tier of the US. Canada is FRIGID, and this air extends into the northern US and will be able to be tapped by any decent HP. The cold air is close enough to keep us in the game for a winter storm. Of course, this is according to this particular frame of the model at 240, which hasn't really been something to put a lot of stock in over the course of the winter. And it is a departure from the last run (but it's not an unreasonable evolution). It's certainly not a disaster: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Y'all somehow missed the high ratio clipper for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Mack, I'm betting pretty heavily it is a hiccup, but we'll see. If not, oh cr*p, there goes the threat of a major winter storm for the SE during the 1/26-31 period down the old johnny flusher. I think we'll like today's12Z Euro much better. If we can't get any winter storms out of this setup we might never see anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The Canadian has another massive storm around 180. Good setup. HP a little weak overhead but that would trend stronger if this does pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Y'all somehow missed the high ratio clipper for next week. You talking about the energy diving in on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 If we can't get any winter storms out of this setup we might never see anymore. I am beginning to agree too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I think the Euro operational last night is starting to sniff out what I think will happen here in February. For those in the upper MA and NE, it will be a very productive period for snows caused by the fight between the cold air in their part of the world and the warmth in the South (say south of DC) producing some good moist lows traveling through the South and up the coast and colliding with the cold air up there. Down here I think the SE ridge will start to re-establish it's strength (which is what the people up north love to see cause it produces a lot of instability and bigger storms that travel their way) soon after the next 2 weeks or so of cold weather for our region. IMO winter will be over for us here (at least as far as wintry precipitation) by the 10th of February (perhaps a little sooner). We will have an opportunity or 2 between now and then and hope everyone can cash in to some degree or else we will miss any chance for this winter after this period. This winter reminds me a lot of 1993-94 where we had some severe cold periods here for December and January but never really got the cold and precip to match up at the same time leading to a disappointing amount of snow despite the colder than normal Jan. That year too, we transitioned quickly in February to a warmer period that ended up quite wet but not icy and had a very warm/wet March as well. I hope I am completely wrong about this for everyone's sake that loves wintry weather and time will tell whether it works out this way or not. Unfortunately I believe JB agrees with me for the long range for the most part and sees a good time for his beloved NE but not so much down here after this coming cold snap(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 If we can't get any winter storms out of this setup we might never see anymore.this is not a snowy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 You talking about the energy diving in on Tuesday? Actually on Thursday night. Cold ground+Cold 850's would maximize sticking on everything. Granted, it's only half a tenth to a tenth but if you're working with 20-25:1 ratios, you can make some hay. A lot of people don't remember 1/23/03 only had .18 equivalent in CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Actually on Thursday night. Cold ground+Cold 850's would maximize sticking on everything. Granted, it's only half a tenth to a tenth but if you're working with 20-25:1 ratios, you can make some hay. A lot of people don't remember 1/23/03 only had .18 equivalent in CLT. Agreed, pattern is good for small NW flow events, Jan 2003 has been showing consistently on the day 8 analogs. I would think we can squeak out a 1-2" event the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Don't know if I see these kinds of accums out of any upcoming system, but here's the 1/23/2003 map for reference: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I didn't even realize it but next Thursday would be the 23rd. Spooky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Anyone got the 12z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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