Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Just now looking at the text output from the 12Z GFS and man what potential we do have coming up. Two separate events: This data is for Morganton-Lenoir Airport which is closest to MBY that has this data: 1/26-1/27: 1.22 QPF with temps at or below 30 degrees 1/31-2/01: 1.03 QPF with temps once again hovering around 30-32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Just now looking at the text output from the 12Z GFS and man what potential we do have coming up. Two separate events: This data is for Morganton-Lenoir Airport which is closest to MBY that has this data: 1/26-1/27: 1.22 QPF with temps at or below 30 degrees 1/31-2/01: 1.03 QPF with temps once again hovering around 30-32 Is there a free site to input airport codes to get this data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Good read on upcoming pattern: http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-for-february/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Is there a free site to input airport codes to get this data? http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmrn In the box at the top of the page where it says enter ICAO just enter an airport code i.e. KTRI, KAVL, KMRN, KHKY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmrn In the box at the top of the page where it says enter ICAO just enter an airport code i.e. KTRI, KAVL, KMRN, KHKY Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmrn In the box at the top of the page where it says enter ICAO just enter an airport code i.e. KTRI, KAVL, KMRN, KHKY So if I am reading the site correctly Winston Salem gets 1.15 precip with temps at or below 30 from PM 1/26 through 1/27. Thanks for the link! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 So if I am reading the site correctly Winston Salem gets 1.15 precip with temps at or below 30 from PM 1/26 through 1/27. Thanks for the link! Yes that looks to be the case. Best shot at a widespread winter storm that we have had in about 3 years (2009). And you're welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmrn In the box at the top of the page where it says enter ICAO just enter an airport code i.e. KTRI, KAVL, KMRN, KHKY FYI.. I'm in the process of building a new feature for the Model Center - on-demand meteograms based on any location with 0.5 degree resolution for the GFS up to 192 hrs. Look for it soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 FYI.. I'm in the process of building a new feature for the Model Center - on-demand meteograms based on any location with 0.5 degree resolution for the GFS up to 192 hrs. Look for it soon! Sweet, that sounds awesome! Appreciate your hard work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Just now looking at the text output from the 12Z GFS and man what potential we do have coming up. Two separate events: This data is for Morganton-Lenoir Airport which is closest to MBY that has this data: 1/26-1/27: 1.22 QPF with temps at or below 30 degrees 1/31-2/01: 1.03 QPF with temps once again hovering around 30-32 1/27 and 1/31 look good for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 1/27 and 1/31 look good for RDU.link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 link? I was commenting on this if you put RDU in there. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmrn In the box at the top of the page where it says enter ICAO just enter an airport code i.e. KTRI, KAVL, KMRN, KHKY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Good read on upcoming pattern: http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-for-february/ Never heard of a MQI analogs but this map is pretty, if we get this type of pattern over the next 30 days we will get snow. Of course that's a big if…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 WOW 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 26 2014 THE ONLY CHANGES REQUIRED TO TODAY'S OUTLOOK COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S WERE TO CONTINUE THE TREND ALL WEEK, NAMELY, TO EXPAND PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WESTWARD AND INCREASE THEIR MAGNITUDE. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT A SUBSTANTIAL ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL IMPACT LARGE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS, CENTERED ON THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, THOUGH THIS ISSUE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, LIMITED MODEL SPREAD, AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL FORECAST TOOLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I have not posted on this forum in a while (I just started two part time jobs while I still search for a job in my field), but I figured while I have a few moments I can throw my two cents in... It looks to be downright cold for the extended period through early February. Temperatures will be below average for a wide majority of the days. On top of this, I believe that the pattern will begin to become active with the chance for a couple of storms developing and causing snow for areas in the southeast and eastern seaboard. Where? I don't know. With the oscillations in our favor and with an upcoming polar plunge, I believe that we will be dealing with some sort of storm in the southeast at some point. The synoptics point to this. I believe the last week of January into the first week of February will be the best time to see a winter storm in the southeast, if everything can come together. I said earlier this year that we have not had a bad February in a long time. February is the second snowiest month for many locations in the southeast, so by using the law of averages, there must be a bad February at some point. This is the best the models have looked in a long time. Let's see if they hold onto the idea. Here is the quote from my article on my website with the link to the article This pattern will be very conductive for a winter storm to develop and provide a large area of snow across the southeast. I suspect we will have at least the chance of a winter storm over the next couple of weeks. The best chance for a winter storm will be from late January into early February. The synoptic support at least the chance of seeing a winter storm. Well, you can attribute it to a large ridge of high pressure that is building in the Pacific Ocean through Alaska into the poles. The PNA is going to remain positive for the majority of the period. The Arctic Oscillation is going to remain negative for the time frame. Both of these oscillations are in a favorable phase for cooler than average periods in the southeast United States. The only thing we need now is a storm cutting across the country, diving into the Gulf of Mexico, and moving up the eastern seaboard. The system that brought this cold air was just 100-200 miles away from a nor'easter. http://wxjordan.com/weather/discussions/269-cold-air-returns-to-southeast-and-stays As you can see, I am excited about the pattern and what it may bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 If you are interested in a good read on the potential upcoming pattern, check out Kirk Mellish's Blog on wsbradio.com. Mellish does not update his blog as often as I wish he would. In fact he sometimes goes weeks without an update. However he usually weighs in when something substantial is about to happen. If you read the blog, he appears to think something very substantial (possibly even historic) may happen in the SE over the next few weeks. Mellish is not big on hype. He is usually more likely to play something down rather than play it up. His discussion and summary of what the models and teleconnections are showing has me very encouraged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 If you are interested in a good read on the potential upcoming pattern, check out Kirk Mellish's Blog on wsbradio.com. Mellish does not update his blog as often as I wish he would. In fact he sometimes goes weeks without an update. However he usually weighs in when something substantial is about to happen. If you read the blog, he appears to think something very substantial (possibly even historic) may happen in the SE over the next few weeks. Mellish is not big on hype. He is usually more likely to play something down rather than play it up. His discussion and summary of what the models and teleconnections are showing has me very encouraged Good read. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 It was a good read, but I wonder if Robert Gamble (WxSouth) minds that he plagiarized his thoughts (almost word for word) from his blog yesterday. On topic - the long range looks like a GREAT setup for a bumpy winter ride beginning soon! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 If you are interested in a good read on the potential upcoming pattern, check out Kirk Mellish's Blog on wsbradio.com. Mellish does not update his blog as often as I wish he would. In fact he sometimes goes weeks without an update. However he usually weighs in when something substantial is about to happen. If you read the blog, he appears to think something very substantial (possibly even historic) may happen in the SE over the next few weeks. Mellish is not big on hype. He is usually more likely to play something down rather than play it up. His discussion and summary of what the models and teleconnections are showing has me very encouraged If you wanted most of what's in that blog earlier read WxSouth's facebook page from this morning, the WxRisk facebook page, and JB's twitter feed or listen to his Saturday summary. It felt like deja-vu in more than one way reading that blog; some things were literally word for word the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 It was a good read, but I wonder if Robert Gamble (WxSouth) minds that he plagiarized his thoughts (almost word for word) from his blog yesterday. On topic - the long range looks like a GREAT setup for a bumpy winter ride beginning soon! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah I wondered where he got that NH map since he's not a subscriber... pulled it right from Robert's site. This paragraph was just about word for word.. the blue is what's different from Robert's writup. "The primary global equations GFS, GEM, ECWFM and their respective ensembles continue to point to a cold ending to January. They build the western ridge in the East Pacific through Alaska and close off a ridge for a few days over Alaska, and try to build the upper heights such that overall ridging wraps from the East Pacific, across the North Pole, and into eastern Europe. That would essentially create two main vortices in the Northern Hemisphere. One in Siberia, the other In Canada. The day 10 maps show the coldest vortex is in North America, not Siberia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 From Kirks blog at 6:23 pm tonight "The primary global equations GFS, GEM, ECWFM and their respective ensembles continue to point to a cold ending to January. They build the western ridge in the East Pacific through Alaska and close off a ridge for a few days over Alaska, and try to build the upper heights such that overall ridging wraps from the East Pacific, across the North Pole, and into eastern Europe. That would essentially create two main vortices in the Northern Hemisphere. One in Siberia, the other In Canada. The day 10 maps show the coldest vortex is in North America, not Siberia!" From Roberts paid site posted yesterday: "All the models and their respective ensembles continue to point to a cold ending to January. With time over the next two weeks the European model and ensemble continues to build the western ridge in the East Pacific through Alaska. Both it and GFS close off a ridge for a few days as well, directly over Alaska, and try to build the heights such that overall ridging wraps from the East Pacific, across the North Pole, and into eastern Europe. That would essentially create two main vortices in the Northern Hemisphere. One in Siberia, the other In Canada. The day 10 maps show the coldest vortex is in North America, not Siberia." Maybe he got his permission? Sorry mods, this probably goes to banter. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 It was a good read, but I wonder if Robert Gamble (WxSouth) minds that he plagiarized his thoughts (almost word for word) from his blog yesterday. On topic - the long range looks like a GREAT setup for a bumpy winter ride beginning soon! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Wow... some of the stuff on the Facebook page and the WSB site is word for word. That's not good. And I just mean the word and sentence structure - models are models and certain terminology is going to be consistent no matter who writes/says what. One thing to be aware of about Melish's blog though, the software they use to drive that site doesn't save the original timestamp of the posting. Only when he last edited it. I stop by there and read his posts occasionally, and once I read the same post 3 times over the course of 2 weeks because he kept editing it and it kept changing the "date". I kept having deja vu "didn't I read this five days ago" moments, b/c with the new timestamp, it was confusing. I don't know who posted what first here so I point no fingers just there's a lot of repetetive stuff. ETA: Now, I see that wxsouth.com has a site, and that they have corporate subscribers, including broadcast media, and that they provide data that can be used by said customers. I reckon WSB must be one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I guess when discussing the long range it should be good to know that two talented mets are having the same thoughts....lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Yeah, when I read Kirks blog, I thought there was some exact phrases taken from Roberts. Glad I'm not going crazy! See how these clippers are blowing up off of the Carolina's ? When we get the vortex to retrograde slightly in about 10 days or so, that may push disturbances slightly south and let them turn up the coast in GA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 That's pretty pathetic. Fine to use wxsouth's thoughts, but you've got to quote him / give him credit. Personally, the upcoming pattern looks more cold and dry-ish to me instead of cold and wintry. No -NAO is still going to be a problem. If the flow relaxes along the east coast allowing a storm to come out of the southern plains, you likely lose the cold air and areas to our northwest get hit...if the flow doesn't relax, it stays cold and dry-ish...let's see what happens though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 While I know Robert is high on the upcoming period, I don't read his blog. Maybe I should. I don't pay for JB on weatherbell. I do read his tweets and sometimes read his Saturday post. The main reason I brought attention to the Mellish blog is that he is normally very conservative and the post goes into great detail about the strong evidence supporting the potential for a major long lasting wintery pattern in the SE. I don't know who said what first, but I'm guessing that if they both didn't feel strongly about what is coming, they would not have posted the words on their blogs. Regardless of whose words they really are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Some subtle but important changes on tonight's GFS 0z run. The trough axis at 96h is a little farther west and the west coast ridge is a little taller. Also, that piece of energy digging down from the upper Midwest is a little sharper and farther south in response to the +PNA. If this southwest trend continues on future runs, we might just be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Per 0Z Fri GFS fwiw: major snow 1/28-9 (4-6") N AL, far N GA, far SW NC and less to the south with 1" line Bham to Rome. Brick's abode and Superjames' residence both receive 3-4" of snow. Bank on it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Per 0Z Fri GFS fwiw: major snow 1/28-9 (4-6") N AL, far N GA, far SW NC and less to the south with 1" line Bham to Rome. Brick's abode and Superjames' residence both receive 3-4" of snow. Bank on it lol. and for Atlanta ? ice or just plain rain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Very impressive run for the 00z GFS. The PV just sits in SE Canada pretty much the whole run keeping a trough in the East through much of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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