HKY_WX Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Brandon you should blog here! i'm still posting here, the old guard isn't around like they used to be though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I agree with the consensus among forecasters. I think the period from the 20th to the end of the month looks primed for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I agree with the consensus among forecasters. I think the period from the 20th to the end of the month looks primed for something. Cold rain between cold shots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Yall should go read earthlights post about the upcoming pattern change in the NYC subforum. Very nice right up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I thought a cold front moved through today? 50F at 9:30 at night, balmy. So supposedly the front cleared the coast earlier today, yet just before 10pm there is a line of showers moving through the area and pretty clear line of demarcation in temperature to the west, appox 15 degrees cooler. I'm confused as to how that isn't a front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 ^^ That looks good....Just looking at the snapshot of the image at 240, the surface map shows a weak Low in NE NC and no HP to the north, except for the one way out in the north Atlantic. That's not a depiction that screams snow/ice to me. But, that's just a snapshot. Hard to tell about thermal profiles or any insitu CADding that might be in place from that map, so thanks for posting the follow-up! Edit: That would be one heck of a sleet storm. Oh, it's coming. Tony's super big major nifty sleet megadoodle is coming...just like your warm!! YOu have been warned. I've gotten tons of rain lately, just got 2.5 Sat, followed by another .7, then .4 more, and some today, so the torch and the dry aren't anywhere around here. It's a great winter so far, and looks to get better! Captn T sees far, and it looks good, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Tony, I would gladly trade any winter storm in mby for you to get your sleet storm. I usually hate when people say someone "deserves it" but my friend, you deserve it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 i'm still posting here, the old guard isn't around like they used to be though. If you blog here, they will come. And so will the snow. We are really due for a big one. I mean a real big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Tonight's 0z GFS has a pretty good snow about 50 miles off the Carolina Coast Day 7-8...you can see the energy crossing he Apps at 168 that really ignites and pushes the storm off-shore. That piece helps deliver the cold that settles in for the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 0z Canadian complete flip-flop compared to the afternoon run on the Jan 25-26 time frame. No storm for the South, however both GFS and Canadian shows onset of sustained cold starting around 192... GFS is obscenely cold in the long range starting at 192 with single digits in the Apps, teens TN/NC and 20's below I-20. Temps at the freezing mark to the Florida Panhandle. Remember that would be a mid evening temp... GFS delivers 3 hits of cold similar to that of our first outbreak from about 216 to the end of the run with slight moderation in between hits... Our last outbreak was pretty much a 2 day event with the coldest of cold, this one is going to be a whole lot worse if the global models are accurate. No knock on anyone but with the abundance of snow threads that have been formed so far this winter, I'm thinking an Arctic Attack II thread may be in the works if we continue to get model agreement...maybe I can get the ball rolling on that as soon as tomorrow afternoon's model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Folks, Fwiw, the 0Z GEFS suggests a decent shot at a SE winter storm or two within 1/28-31. We'll see. The ducks apparently will be on the pond. Until the ducks get there, patience is recommended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Oh boy!!! This is pretty darn close to something big! 850's... 2M's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Early next week is going to get cold, and then just gets colder as time goes on: 6z for Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The GFS is just look out below kinda cold. Similar to earlier this month, but longer in duration. I don't know if it'll verify obviously, but it sniffed the first -0 outbreak out 300+ hours out, it only dropped it a couple of times too before locking in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The GFS is just look out below kinda cold. Similar to earlier this month, but longer in duration. I don't know if it'll verify obviously, but it sniffed the first -0 outbreak out 300+ hours out, it only dropped it a couple of times too before locking in on it. Looking at the 6z GFS it looks to start the substanded cold period around the 21st. Then it has a fantasy storm that looks very icy around the 27th(big sleet storm in NC, freezing rain south). It has been showing fantasy winter storms(snowy or icy) during this period for the last few days. I do like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The 06 GFS at hour 252 also has it. Just a little NW of what the 00Z euro had. Lets see if we can string together a few models run. Oh boy!!! This is pretty darn close to something big! 850's... 2M's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Fwiw (shows what could happen in an extreme pattern like this), the 6Z GFS has on mainly 1/29 0.22" of liquid equivalent at Savannah with 925 mb temp.'s falling from -1 C to -3 C and 850's falling from near 0 C to -3 C while surface winds are from the NNE to N, meaning no warming from the ocean. The surface cools from just above 32 at the start to near 28 near the end. So, in theory, this could easily be a very rare 1-2" of snow there as modeled. Normally, I'd be wondering if the cold bias at the surface is making it too cold. However, in this case with those 850 and 925 temp.s and cold NNE to N surface winds, it would probably be at least down to near 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Saw this comment from WxSouth on facebook. Looks very optimistic. If the ridge were positioned lower, and not so much over the top toward the Pole, I'd go with more of a dry, northwest flow. But teleconnections on this placment is really more a wetter than average look in the South--if the high reaches that strength and that far north. Systems would be allowed to dig into the Rockies and travel across TX toward the Gulf Coast. If it completely closes off into Rex Block, that opens up a split flow connection from Pacific. Both are precip makers in the South. So I'm a little skeptical of being very dry in the Southeast for very long. We do have a few days of drying coming up though as the transition is taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 If the 6z GFS is correct in the LR, we will be looking at potentially one of the most active, wintry periods in the SE in a long, long time. All of the guidance continues to show cold in the LR (although I haven't seen the ensembles yet). The CPC teleconnections don't look too bad either. The AO, which looked to return to a positive phase yesterday, has, as expected, been muted and now looks to remain mostly negative. The PNA is positive and looks to remain that way for a good while. The NAO looks to remain mostly positive, though not strongly so. The CFS still shows Feb as colder in the east/southeast, but now looks a little drier for the SE. Hopefully, going forward, we can continue to build on these signals and the cold, stormy pattern will come to fruition. If anyone has any comments about the ensembles, please share! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The Euro ensembles just went nuts with the blocking over the pole. Can we please fire up the southern stream now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The Euro ensembles just went nuts with the blocking over the pole. Can we please fire up the southern stream now? Yep, the Euro ensemble mean is drier than the GFS ensemble mean, which continues to favor Gulf moisture interacting at times with the cold air to the north. The 500 mb flow stays pretty much WNW on the Euro ens. through the entire 1/18-30 period. Just classic dry cold. Which model will be right? Opinions? I still say watch out for a potential major ZR in late January in many areas including N GA based on a combo of the projected extreme pattern as well as neutral negative ENSO climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The Euro ensembles just went nuts with the blocking over the pole. Can we please fire up the southern stream now? Thanks, Franklin. And agreed...let's get that southern stream going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Unfortunately, this extreme cold snap looks to drive too deep into Florida and thus cutting off the moisture supply for us so I would look for very cold, but also dry. You need cold air for snow but if it is too strong and dives too far down, it dries out the atmosphere until the warmth starts to return which is when you can get a dangerous zr situation in the upper south on the tail end of the cold snap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Mr. Sutherland's post from this morning: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41600-winter-2013-14-medium-range-discussion/?p=2642153 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 From DT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The 06 GFS at hour 252 also has it. Just a little NW of what the 00Z euro had. Lets see if we can string together a few models run. storm looks good but looks like it would be a cold rain. look at the 540 line, to our north no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I was just glad to see if modeled. the "540 line" is not that big of a concern at this current time though. storm looks good but looks like it would be a cold rain. look at the 540 line, to our north no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I was just glad to see if modeled. the "540 line" is not that big of a concern at this current time though. I'm with you strong lets hope the storm sticks first, maybe the 540 line will trend in our favor as time goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I was just glad to see if modeled. the "540 line" is not that big of a concern at this current time though. Also just the overall pattern for this winter would argue that aloft it would probably be colder. I'm with you. Just give me a chance to be in the game and I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Tony, I would gladly trade any winter storm in mby for you to get your sleet storm. I usually hate when people say someone "deserves it" but my friend, you deserve it!!! Thanks, Greg! From your mouth to the sleet gods ears Normally I worry about the intense cold chasing away the rain, but occasionally it works right...like northern right in the deep south. Mostly it's catch a storm between the dips and peaks in a normal winter, but we might catch a break this time, and if not then the normal way will do fine It troubles me I have to get so close to the zmonster to get my sleet...but there it is. And snow at 20 degrees will do in a pinch, as longs as it's deep enough, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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