griteater Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Charlotte to Raleigh are at or below 0 deg C at 850mb each day from days 8-15 on the 12z Euro Ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Charlotte to Raleigh are at or below 0 deg C at 850mb each day from days 8-15 on the 12z Euro Ensemble mean Wow very impressive. The Euro and its ensembles have done a great job sniffing out these patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The euro 12z run was pretty awesome from a pattern perspective. Much to the chagrin of widre, the blog will be revived! Brandon you should blog here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Robert is VERY optimistic, it sounds like, for the 1/18 - ? period. http://wxsouth.com/?cat=144 I peed a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Robert is VERY optimistic, it sounds like, for the 1/18 - ? period. http://wxsouth.com/?cat=144 I peed a little. You'll need a diaper if you look at days 11 to 15 on the 6z GFS; basically shows wintery precip for many on each of the days. Nice fantasy storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Folks, Fwiw, per 6Z GFS per MeteoStar: major, very long lasting, and widespread winter storm for much of SE US (even down to Charleston as major ZR and a little wintry precip. Savannah) 1/26-early 1/29. Snow is mainly in NC but also far N GA/SC. Below that is a major IP and ZR in much of NC/SC/N and C GA. KATL gets nearly 48 hours (1/27-8) of mainly ZR, probably some IP, and some S at the end. Neutral negative ENSO climo means enhanced probabilities for major ZR N GA late January as has been mentioned several times. KATL gets ~1" of mainly ZR (probably with some IP) and then a little snow at the end. Lows back into single digits following this big mess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 1" of ZR would be a disaster, but I'm sure we'll get 15 different solutions by the time we hit that window... Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I like where the models are going with the configuration of the E Pac ridge by Day 10 and beyond. GFS forms a strong omega block which will start up a split flow pattern with a parade of low pressure systems moving across with cold pressing overhead. Perfect overrunning pattern. No "big" single system.. no -NAO to slow down everything but it would be epic nonetheless with multiple systems moving through over days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I like where the models are going with the configuration of the E Pac ridge by Day 10 and beyond. GFS forms a strong omega block which will start up a split flow pattern with a parade of low pressure systems moving across with cold pressing overhead. Perfect overrunning pattern. No "big" single system.. no -NAO to slow down everything but it would be epic nonetheless with multiple systems moving through over days. The last week of January sounds like it could be a lot of fun. I think most folks would gladly take a bunch of smaller systems back to back if we can't get one big system. I just wish it wasn't so far away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I like where the models are going with the configuration of the E Pac ridge by Day 10 and beyond. GFS forms a strong omega block which will start up a split flow pattern with a parade of low pressure systems moving across with cold pressing overhead. Perfect overrunning pattern. No "big" single system.. no -NAO to slow down everything but it would be epic nonetheless with multiple systems moving through over days. Whatever it is, it seems the cold locks in and energy just keeps coming. Snow's not necessarily modeled over and over, but it's in close proximity to the SE each time. It looks like we're in the ballgame, rather than having it warm up each time precip approaches. Nice change from what we've seen. I'd like to see this split flow pattern modeled about a week closer and I'll start to feel better about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Folks, Fwiw, per 6Z GFS per MeteoStar: major, very long lasting, and widespread winter storm for much of SE US (even down to Charleston as major ZR and a little wintry precip. Savannah) 1/26-early 1/29. Snow is mainly in NC but also far N GA/SC. Below that is a major IP and ZR in much of NC/SC/N and C GA. KATL gets nearly 48 hours (1/27-8) of mainly ZR, probably some IP, and some S at the end. Neutral negative ENSO climo means enhanced probabilities for major ZR N GA late January as has been mentioned several times. KATL gets ~1" of mainly ZR (probably with some IP) and then a little snow at the end. Lows back into single digits following this big mess! This could rival or even surpass the 1973 ice storm, thoughts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Folks, Fwiw, per 6Z GFS per MeteoStar: major, very long lasting, and widespread winter storm for much of SE US (even down to Charleston as major ZR and a little wintry precip. Savannah) 1/26-early 1/29. Snow is mainly in NC but also far N GA/SC. Below that is a major IP and ZR in much of NC/SC/N and C GA. KATL gets nearly 48 hours (1/27-8) of mainly ZR, probably some IP, and some S at the end. Neutral negative ENSO climo means enhanced probabilities for major ZR N GA late January as has been mentioned several times. KATL gets ~1" of mainly ZR (probably with some IP) and then a little snow at the end. Lows back into single digits following this big mess! This is the first 192+ hour truncated GFS fantasy solid snow storm modeled in North Carolina so far this winter. Let's hope it comes to fruition! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I like where the models are going with the configuration of the E Pac ridge by Day 10 and beyond. GFS forms a strong omega block which will start up a split flow pattern with a parade of low pressure systems moving across with cold pressing overhead. Perfect overrunning pattern. No "big" single system.. no -NAO to slow down everything but it would be epic nonetheless with multiple systems moving through over days. Agree, the d8 and d11 super ensemble GEFS is peppered with analogs for smaller events, this is getting crazy, if we don't get a 1-2" event in the next two weeks than we suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Just sharing Check out @RaleighWx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/423457457508077568 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 2003 and 2009 keep coming up in the day 8/11 analogs, those were nice snow years for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The CFS continues to cool off in it's depiction of February. It seems to be getting a little colder in the east each run. Precip still looks similar to previous runs, showing above normal the upper west sections of the SE and below normal for other the lower east sections. All four weeks look solidly below normal temp-wise, with weeks 1 and 2 below normal precip-wise. Below is the 324 hr panel of the 6z GFS, showing a split flow and a big SE winter storm. Of course, it is always unwise to take these kinds of fantasy storms too seriously, but I'm posting it to suppliment the thoughts above and to illustrate what is possible with the upcoming pattern, should it verify (it's encouraging that the GFS, Euro, GFS Ens, and Euro Ens all agree on a cold and somewhat stormy period to close out the month and open January -- and as Packbacker said, if we can't score in this pattern, we suck). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Just sharing Check out @RaleighWx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/423457457508077568 Well, that's no small storm. I wish it was showing that a week away instead of two weeks, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Man, the pattern looks awesome coming up. The PNA does relax on the ensemble mean after about hour 312. There's still a mean trough in the east with no SE ridge to be found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 It's reminding me of the last week of Jan 2000. Not saying we are going to have another Carolina Crusher, but we had a few snow storms that impacted NC that week before the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Man, the pattern looks awesome coming up. The PNA does relax on the ensemble mean after about hour 312. There's still a mean trough in the east with no SE ridge to be found. This is a little concerning. Looking at the CPC site, it has the PNA very positive but does dive negative in the LR, the NAO goes and stays positve from it's current slight negative value, and the AO looks to go positive from it's current negative vaule. This look would scream warm up around day 16 or so(1st week of February. This upcoming two weeks may be our best chance for wintery precip this winter. It would be very nice to get one of these fantasy storms to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 This is a little concerning. Looking at the CPC site, it has the PNA very positive but does dive negative in the LR, the NAO goes and stays positve from it's current slight negative value, and the AO looks to go positive from it's current negative vaule. This look would scream warm up around day 16 or so(1st week of February. This upcoming two weeks may be our best chance for wintery precip this winter. It would be very nice to get one of these fantasy storms to verify. From Don Sutherland this morning: 4. The guidance points to the development of a PNA- toward the close of January. However, some recent forecasts toward that end didn't verify. The pattern evolution might be slower than what the guidance currently shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 This is a little concerning. Looking at the CPC site, it has the PNA very positive but does dive negative in the LR, the NAO goes and stays positve from it's current slight negative value, and the AO looks to go positive from it's current negative vaule. This look would scream warm up around day 16 or so(1st week of February. This upcoming two weeks may be our best chance for wintery precip this winter. It would be very nice to get one of these fantasy storms to verify. Yeah I noticed that too. The indices seem to all go very unfavorable starting in February. Next two weeks looks like our best chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 This is a little concerning. Looking at the CPC site, it has the PNA very positive but does dive negative in the LR, the NAO goes and stays positve from it's current slight negative value, and the AO looks to go positive from it's current negative vaule. This look would scream warm up around day 16 or so(1st week of February. This upcoming two weeks may be our best chance for wintery precip this winter. It would be very nice to get one of these fantasy storms to verify. Good news is the AO has been modeled to go positive/strongly positive a few times lately, but that has been greatly tempered as we move closer -- greatly different from earlier in the season....same with the PNA. The NAO is just going to not work this year, outside of some transient ridging/blocking. I've given up on that. And the warm-ups have generally been short-lived, so I wouldn't expect a sustained warm period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 From Don Sutherland this morning: 4. The guidance points to the development of a PNA- toward the close of January. However, some recent forecasts toward that end didn't verify. The pattern evolution might be slower than what the guidance currently shows. I sure hope so. The indice LR forecast and verification has not been great. Really this is where true meterology comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 It's reminding me of the last week of Jan 2000. Not saying we are going to have another Carolina Crusher, but we had a few snow storms that impacted NC that week before the big one. And an ice storm the week after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Yep, the last half of January 2000 was probably the best wintry weather period I've experienced. I think we had four storms in 12 days. The interesting thing is that I believe the rest of the winter of 1999-2000 was terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Jan 2000 had blocking, so did Feb 2004 big event, so did Jan 2002 big event. We can get snow with the +NAO but usually just small ones, 1-2". It's going to be hard to get blocking with the PV sitting over Hudson Bay, that's been a staple of this winter and doesn't look like that is changing, so we are going to have to hope for 1" type events this winter. Odds of a 6" event this winter is virtually nil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Looks like if you're west of 77 in NC, you'll struggle to make it out of the 20's next wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Yep, the last half of January 2000 was probably the best wintry weather period I've experienced. I think we had four storms in 12 days. The interesting thing is that I believe the rest of the winter of 1999-2000 was terrible. I think it was the warmest winter on record at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I think it was the warmest winter on record at that time. If I remember right, February was an obscene torch, though some of the massive snow piles still lasted a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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