GaWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 i'll take it lol. if i recall the 25th has had a number of snows over the years. i think people got spoiled with two back to back knock out winters a couple of years ago. that kind of blocking and sustained cold is not common in the se. most of the ones over the years have been pop ups within a couple of days once we have cold air or a reinforcing shot of cold hits with precip (other than the bowling ball effect). it sucks but most of the time cold air chasing rain to changeover rarely happens. we need the cold first as half of the ingredients. once we get that its waiting for a little (or big haha) low to pop up or for some overrunning. seems like we are also getting into the time of year where i recall several pretty good icing events Late January (1/21-30) has been the ten day period with the highest concentration of major ZR's in the Atlanta area since the late 1800's. Also, the neutral negative ENSO phase has by a good margin had the highest concentration of major ZR's. Nearly 70% of the ones that occurred in mid to late Jan. (Jan. 11-31) were during neutral negative ENSO. So, climo tells me we have a good bit higher than normal chance later this month of a major ZR since we're in neutral negative even though recent model runs have been more in the snow direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 i'll take it lol. if i recall the 25th has had a number of snows over the years. i think people got spoiled with two back to back knock out winters a couple of years ago. that kind of blocking and sustained cold is not common in the se. most of the ones over the years have been pop ups within a couple of days once we have cold air or a reinforcing shot of cold hits with precip (other than the bowling ball effect). it sucks but most of the time cold air chasing rain to changeover rarely happens. we need the cold first as half of the ingredients. once we get that its waiting for a little (or big haha) low to pop up or for some overrunning. seems like we are also getting into the time of year where i recall several pretty good icing events The 25th is a red letter day in North Carolina ffor snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 GFS long range looks really good with a couple fantasy storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The 00z GFS is pretty doggone brutal for these next few clipper events. Bone dry. I know these two events were already going to be dry but this is the driest run I've seen yet. The long range looks pretty promising, but then again it is the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Late January (1/21-30) has been the ten day period with the highest concentration of major ZR's in the Atlanta area since the late 1800's. Also, the neutral negative ENSO phase has by a good margin had the highest concentration of major ZR's. Nearly 70% of the ones that occurred in mid to late Jan. (Jan. 11-31) were during neutral negative ENSO. So, climo tells me we have a good bit higher than normal chance later this month of a major ZR since we're in neutral negative even though recent model runs have been more in the snow direction. Fwiw (only entertainment) and right on cue with climo, the 0Z Tue GFS does have a major ZR storm with some IP for the CAD areas of GA/SC/NC on 1/28-9 thanks to a very moist Miller A'ish GOM low in combo with CAD from a very cold Arctic high. This is the first run in a long time with a major ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Usually no need to put AFD's in monthly thread, but this is a pretty good description of how the pattern should evolve from Thursday into middle of next week. Looks like we could be seeing a decent artic outbreak once again middle of next week 1/22ish. I know the ensembles, espeacilly euro have been pretty consistent showing this potential. Rah: LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY... STRONGLY PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH PERSIST IN THE MEANS...WITH AN UNDERCUTTING SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE GOM AND SW ATLANTIC. IN THIS PATTERN...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE/SYSTEM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NC EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH PRONOUNCED BUT SHORT-LIVED POST-FRONTAL COLD...FOLLOWED BY ALSO BRIEF PRE-FRONTAL MODIFICATION. AS SUCH...THU WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR AND CHILLY BETWEEN 40-45 DEGREES...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FRI. FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY INVOF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE WEEK AS SPLIT STREAMS ALIGN FAVORABLY FOR STRONG ASCENT CENTERED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS...THOUGH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAST- MOVING IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW. DESPITE LARGER THAN AVG MODEL SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THERE IS A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL IN NWP GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY WITH THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE PROVEN MORE ACCURATE PARTICULARLY IN RECENT DAYS...SUCH THAT A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION - AGAIN LIKELY RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW - IS JUSTIFIED FOR LATE FRI FRI NIGHT. COOLER SAT...THEN MODERATING SUN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE LOW SCHEDULED FOR MON...THOUGH THIS ONE APPEARS MORE MOISTURE-STARVED AND FARTHER NORTH AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN RELAXES BRIEFLY AND THE ZONAL INDEX INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS CANADA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...SO THE NEXT BUCKLE IN THE FLOW THAT BOTH THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS WOULD SEND THIS AIR MASS OUR WAY LATER NEXT WEEK. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fury88 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Can someone explain to me the neccesity of all caps for NWS posts? Is it supposed to be like we'll actually pay attention more of something? Hah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Can someone explain to me the neccesity of all caps for NWS posts? Is it supposed to be like we'll actually pay attention more of something? Hah. Hi, fury88. Welcome to the board! My opinion, because I have nothing else to go on, is that the NWS uses all caps in their AFDs so that they don't have to worry about proper punctuation, grammar, etc. If you notice, they will often abbreviate words and make up their own lingo in those AFDs. It could also have something to do with using archaic hardware or programming of some kind. Or, i could be completely wrong and there is some other reason. Perhaps, isohume could answer this one. I noticed you asked a question about eastern NC last night. Could you update your profile to report in which city/state you reside? It would be easier to address your questions and understand your observations if we knew where you were located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Hi, fury88. Welcome to the board! My opinion, because I have nothing else to go on, is that the NWS uses all caps in their AFDs so that they don't have to worry about proper punctuation, grammar, etc. If you notice, they will often abbreviate words and make up their own lingo in those AFDs. It could also have something to do with using archaic hardware or programming of some kind. Or, i could be completely wrong and there is some other reason. Perhaps, isohume could answer this one. My guess is that it's a holdover from decades ago, when communication was by teletype etc. Using mixed case requires more bits per character, which meant more data had to be transmitted over systems with very limited bandwidth. I'd suspect the highly abbreviated formats for METARs and TAFs are a result of the same issue. Of course, today we can stream HD video to mobile devices, and bandwidth requirements over those channels for short text statements is negligible. But there's probably either an archaic regulation still in place, or an equally-archaic piece of hardware sitting around, that drives the all-caps usage. That said, I think there are a couple of forecast offices using mixed-case on a trial basis. If they could then get rid of the fixed-width font... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 12Z GFS will make some happy on 1/26., especially those in NC RDU westward. I'm seeing increasing hints that the 1/25-6 period will be the primary period to watch for any potential big wintry event for a portion in the SE, especially those in W and central NC. The 0Z Euro ensembles hint at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 LR GFS just looks stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 LR GFS just looks stunning. Yep...12z gfs showing a lot of opportunities towards the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The GFS post-D12 is phenomenal. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 LR GFS just looks stunning. Is it just me or does the 12Z GFS look like it's trying to get a -NAO going in the not so distant future. Looks pretty "greenland blocky" to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Is it just me or does the 12Z GFS look like it's trying to get a -NAO going in the not so distant future. Looks pretty "greenland blocky" to me. Def. had a blocky look to it. Haven't looked at the Nhem maps yet though I hate tying to read em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 No really great blocking on the GFS, but the last two runs of the model have been very impressive with the cold and would imply several wintry weather chances through the balance of the month. I can't recall seeing such a lengthy period of cold modeled as what I've seen lately. The CFS looks chilly through the next four weeks and is neutral/negative in the temp department for Feb. It also shows an increased chance for above normal precip for parts of the SE for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 JB just tweeted (thought it was appropriate for this thread): "I am trying to measure words, but what I see coming needs preparaton Power outages, busting pipes strain on cities threat has me rattled." https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/423156243679563776 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 JB just tweeted (thought it was appropriate for this thread): "I am trying to measure words, but what I see coming needs preparaton Power outages, busting pipes strain on cities threat has me rattled." https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/423156243679563776 If he's talking about the Northeast, I wonder if any of that air will make it down are way? I could use more pipe- bursting cold , with some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 JB just tweeted (thought it was appropriate for this thread): "I am trying to measure words, but what I see coming needs preparaton Power outages, busting pipes strain on cities threat has me rattled." https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/423156243679563776 He said today next three weeks look good for us several chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The GFS post-D12 is phenomenal. Wow. Yeah, if that's accurate then Feb would indeed be rockin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 JB just tweeted (thought it was appropriate for this thread): "I am trying to measure words, but what I see coming needs preparaton Power outages, busting pipes strain on cities threat has me rattled." https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/423156243679563776 This...is...just....too...much. Even for JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Is it just me or does the 12Z GFS look like it's trying to get a -NAO going in the not so distant future. Looks pretty "greenland blocky" to me. Not just you, the -NAO has been showing up more and more with each run. Essentially a 180 within the last two days. Last 48hr 0z/12z run NAO values valid 1/19: 48: 1.5 36: 0 24: -0.7 12: -1.2 0: -2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi2m I have never seen this cold a run of the ECWMF ensembles day 10-15. Outrageous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi2m I have never seen this cold a run of the ECWMF ensembles day 10-15. Outrageous I saw this tweet....anyone seen the ensembles he is referring to? How outrageous and for what part of the country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 CPC Aftn Discussion... 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 28 2014 TODAY'S WEEK-2 OUTLOOK REFLECTS THE GROWING POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ACROSS THE CONUS HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH. THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A MEAN RIDGE FORECAST JUST OFF THE WEST COAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SUGGESTS THAT THE SOURCE REGION FOR POST-FRONTAL AIR MASSES WILL BE GROWING COLDER AS CROSS-POLAR FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE AND GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL ARE LIKELY GOING TO EXPAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES. LATE IN THE PERIOD, COLDER AIR MASSES ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS WELL, WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DRASTICALLY REDUCED FROM YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 CPC Aftn Discussion... 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 28 2014 TODAY'S WEEK-2 OUTLOOK REFLECTS THE GROWING POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ACROSS THE CONUS HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH. THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A MEAN RIDGE FORECAST JUST OFF THE WEST COAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SUGGESTS THAT THE SOURCE REGION FOR POST-FRONTAL AIR MASSES WILL BE GROWING COLDER AS CROSS-POLAR FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE AND GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL ARE LIKELY GOING TO EXPAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES. LATE IN THE PERIOD, COLDER AIR MASSES ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS WELL, WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DRASTICALLY REDUCED FROM YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK. The part near the end where they say the N Rockies may be involved , has me a little concerned that the next arctic air mass may be more plains oriented, as opposed to a more eastern trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The part near the end where they say the N Rockies may be involved , has me a little concerned that the next arctic air mass may be more plains oriented, as opposed to a more eastern trough? looks nice and cold on their map. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi2m I have never seen this cold a run of the ECWMF ensembles day 10-15. Outrageous I saw this tweet....anyone seen the ensembles he is referring to? How outrageous and for what part of the country? -12.7 850mb anomaly over the lakes at 276 hours,10-15 day mean is -10.3....so that would be #polarvortex2 visiting the east again. I'm guessing he's saying that's pretty strong, climo speaking, for the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The euro 12z run was pretty awesome from a pattern perspective. Much to the chagrin of widre, the blog will be revived! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Go HKY_WX! Hopefully just the beginning of some great weeks ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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