Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

[packbacker]

Looks like a low over WV and a low over eastern VA or maybe Wallops Island.

ENS mean still probably a snow storm for western NC.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

Models will probably change many times before storm actually happens. Do we want the models to be right now or right before it hits? Just asking.

[WeatherNC]

12z Canadian ens at 120, 132, & 144

 

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=120&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm

 

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=132&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm

 

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=144&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm

 

132 & 144hrs likely offers some hope as there are a few mems A type, still, I do not like the baginess of the isobars into the OH Valley on many.

[HWY316wx]

This was put out about an hour ago from FFC:

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL LOOKING AT SOME NORTHWEST FLOW PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH RE-ENFORCING TROUGH COMING IN EARLY MONDAY. THICKNESSES AND
SURFACE WEB BULB NOT AS COLD THIS RUN BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
ANOTHER RUN BEFORE REMOVING LIGHT SNOW MIXTURE FOR THE NORTHERN
TIER.     MODELS TRENDING TOWARD EACH OTHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS ECMWF
NOW DRIER AND SHOWS TWO DISTINCT INFLUENCES...ONE FROM THE NORTH
WHICH IS LIMITED ON MOISTURE AND THE SECOND HAVING A GULF
INFLUENCE WITH MORE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTH. INTRODUCED
CHANCE POPS FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE RAMPED
UP IF TRENDS CONTINUE. THURSDAY SYSTEM STILL HAS MUCH DISAGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS WITH GFS SHOWING MAINLY A NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT WITH
STRONG TROUGH WHILE ECMWF SHOWS ADDITIONAL GULF INFLUENCE BUT
STILL DRIER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. CONTINUED WITH JUST RAIN AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW BUT CERTAINLY WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER POPS AND WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE NORTH.

[GaWx]

^^ Yep. The most important take-away is that they support the pattern. The pattern is not and has not been supportive of suppression.

It is and has been supportive of cutters, Miller Bs, less penetrating cold, and moist systems.

It is not and has not been supportive of strong highs remaining locked over the northern tier.

It is not and has not been supportive of eastern Gulf and SE coastal cyclogenesis.

It is not and has not been supportive of a snowstorm.

We can still get perfect timing. This system can still work out. But the pattern doesn't support it. I don't care if the ensembles support the OPs or not. Do they support the pattern? That's the question. When they do, like they seem to be doing now, then that's a reliable signal to me.

 

 Having an El Nino and less -PNA/-PDO would help. Also, the pattern is and has been supportive of CAD at least, which isn't correlated with El Nino or a +PNA. So, ZR storm may be the best opportunity. Haven't you already had one or two minor ZR's? That's pretty dern good for it being only Dec.!

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Looks like a low over WV and a low over eastern VA or maybe Wallops Island. 

 

Certainly not going to get snow out of a set-up like that.... What are 850's doing?

[Jon]

The LR has not been figured out yet...Case in point.

 

00z Euro EPS Mean at 240hrs 00z Jan 7th...looks pretty meh, SE ridge moves in shortly thereafter.

 

Valid same time period, 12z Euro EPS mean. Our friend in the atlantic decides to show up, basically verbatim what the control HAS been showing on previous EPS runs while the mean has NOT.

 

 

Oh ok then. Anyone up for a block party?

 

12z Euro EPS Control

 

 

I'm starting to feel like JB here...point is, ridge of death is not set in stone despite ensemble agreement. The models are still confused and out to lunch when it comes to the LR, don't let it fool you.

[POWERSTROKE]

The LR has not been figured out yet...Case in point.

00z Euro EPS Mean at 240hrs 00z Jan 7th...looks pretty meh, SE ridge moves in shortly thereafter.

Valid same time period, 12z Euro EPS mean. Our friend in the atlantic decides to show up, basically verbatim what the control HAS been showing on previous EPS runs while the mean has NOT.

Oh ok then. Anyone up for a block party?

12z Euro EPS Control

I'm starting to feel like JB here...point is, ridge of death is not set in stone despite ensemble agreement. The models are still confused and out to lunch when it comes to the LR, don't let it fool you.

You are right. He pretty much thinks we out of game on this one. It will be north of here however looks better after this of course we have heard that the last three years. Time will tell

[Cold Rain]

Having an El Nino and less -PNA/-PDO would help. Also, the pattern is and has been supportive of CAD at least, which isn't correlated with El Nino or a +PNA. So, ZR storm may be the best opportunity. Haven't you already had one or two minor ZR's? That's pretty dern good for it being only Dec.!

 

That is true.  Highs have been readily moving across the northern tier instead of plunging to the Gulf and moving east from there.  However, they have not yet been of sufficient strength or longevity to make a big winter storm.  Hopefully, that will change.

 

The LR has not been figured out yet...Case in point.

 

00z Euro EPS Mean at 240hrs 00z Jan 7th...looks pretty meh, SE ridge moves in shortly thereafter.

 

Valid same time period, 12z Euro EPS mean. Our friend in the atlantic decides to show up, basically verbatim what the control HAS been showing on previous EPS runs while the mean has NOT.

 

 

Oh ok then. Anyone up for a block party?

 

12z Euro EPS Control

 

 

I'm starting to feel like JB here...point is, ridge of death is not set in stone despite ensemble agreement. The models are still confused and out to lunch when it comes to the LR, don't let it fool you.

Thanks for the images. Being inside of 10 days, maybe it has some merit. We'll see. At some point, I'd like to see a pattern like that show up inside of 5 days and work in from there.

[J.C.]

The weather channel is now forecasting highs in the 60s all week here in Columbia, SC except for next Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  I can't even take their forecasts seriously anymore, their long range models change 5-10 degrees a day, twice a day.  Looks to me like all models can't quite determine the strength of the Southeast Ridge.  Regardless, I wouldn't expect any snow of significance outside the mountains anytime soon.  There is definitely enough Artic air to go around, but the southeast ridge along with the Appalachians keeps forcing it south to the gulf and it can't come east.   It has been quite warm the past two years, but I don't remember there being this much cold air available with such a strong blocking ridge for so long.  I guess I haven't been paying attention enough.  

[Shawn]

The weather channel is now forecasting highs in the 60s all week here in Columbia, SC except for next Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  I can't even take their forecasts seriously anymore, their long range models change 5-10 degrees a day, twice a day.  Looks to me like all models can't quite determine the strength of the Southeast Ridge.  Regardless, I wouldn't expect any snow of significance outside the mountains anytime soon.  There is definitely enough Artic air to go around, but the southeast ridge along with the Appalachians keeps forcing it south to the gulf and it can't come east.   It has been quite warm the past two years, but I don't remember there being this much cold air available with such a strong blocking ridge for so long.  I guess I haven't been paying attention enough.  

 

The system after New Years had the potential to be a deep Southern snow, but now the models have come back to reality as we get closer.  Now its pretty much trending away from even NC from the latest runs.  Still early, but it's pointless to look at much long range other than potential pattern changes.  Trying to pin point storms even this far out is pretty much always a fail and it happens to us every time.  If there was a rule on these weather boards to not mention any Wintry threat in the southeast outside of 3 days, we would be much better off.

[nchighcountrywx]

Tweet from Dr Ryan Maue with new ECMWF feature

@RyanMaue: New Year Arctic blast -- new ECMWF Ensemble probability of below freezing extends over > 90% of Lower-48

http://pic.twitter.com/uOxEzJEGix

[WeatherNC]

The LR has not been figured out yet...Case in point.

 

Oh snap...

 

 

[mackerel_sky]

Oh snap...

Seen that before, a few times this winter?!

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Still got a good battle going on with the LR models (GFS warm and the Euro cold). Who wins this one?.....I don't know. However, I just can't see us being as warm as the GFS is depicting with the PV in a pretty good spot and the strong high pressures being modeled along the northern border. I am just as confused as the models right now, but the Euro cold shot does look plausible.

[calculus1]

Our window for snow is getting shorter and shorter each day. After about Mid February, our chances of snow go down drastically. And of course the sun angle starts becoming a huge factor and you have to pray that it snows at night and not during the middle of the day.

 

Really.  Wow!!  

 

Well that was fun, on to mid January or so...somebody let me know when we get blocking or SOMETHING to keep the storms to our south.  Until then, I won't be fooled anymore. 

 

Is it possible to whine some more here?

 

But there was a mention of starting one. Then right after that the Euro came in and things went north. I think even mentioning a storm thread is the kiss of death.

 

 

While all you guys cry about what might or might not happen next weekend.  I'm hoping for a little rain/snow mix this Monday night.  It's much closer and within the range of actually occurring.  (I think this two-day range falls within the jburns window of being worth worrying about!)  From the late afternoon GSP update we have this nugget:

 

 

 

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 215 PM SAT...WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING SHALLOW LOW

LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WRN MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT

MOVES SLOWLY SE FROM THE OH VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SRN STREAM

UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND MOVE EWD

ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT

APPROACHING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL NEAR THE MTNS AS LOW

LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO S OR SW AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM WAVE MON. THIS

WILL GENERATE SOME MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MAINLY WRN NC

THROUGH MON AFTN. IN ADDITION TO THE WEAK UPGLIDE...UPPER DIVERGENCE

SE OF A 300 MB JETLET ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WILL SET UP OVER THE

AREA. THE ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS SE OF THE JET SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH

CLOUD COVER TO TRIM MAX TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE MON AFTN. SNOW LEVELS

SHOULD HOVER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS THROUGH LATE

MON...BUT WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE GENERATING VERY LITTLE QPF.

THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH REGION ON MON NIGHT

WITH WET BULB TEMP PROFILES FALLING FROM THE NW. THE BEST DEEP LAYER

Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE

OVERNIGHT HOURS MON NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT A BRIEF GULF TAP COULD REACH THE PIEDMONT

BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS WILL WARRANT

THE BEST POPS OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT CIRCA 09Z TUE. WET BULB

PROFILES DO NOT REALLY BEGIN TO SUPPORT SNOW UNTIL AFTER 09Z ALONG

AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY COLD

RAIN OR BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS CHARLOTTE METRO WITH ANYTHING

THAT FALLS TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH

WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40

CORRIDOR EARLY TUE MORNING.

W TO NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUE ALONG WITH DRYING HIGH PRES FROM THE

WEST. THIS WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE EAST OF THE MTNS GIVEN

THE FULL SUN AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING.

 

Bring on the flakes!!  Take the crying somewhere else, please.

[burgertime]

Not feeling good about this. I'll give it until Monday. The energy out west gets thrown into the meat grinder on practically every model at around hour 60 or so. The NAM keeps it held together though not too strong and very positively tilted and too fast. We would need it to hang out in the southwest for around 24 hours and then kick to the east while staying together. It's a lot to ask for. 

[POWERSTROKE]

Locals showing clear skies and cold end of week. I believe this one is gone and hopefully something the following week

[Poimen]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the 18Z GFS. It drops the Miller B and develops the primary off the Carolina coast. It's a step in the right direction so we are mot out of it yet.

[superjames1992]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the 18Z GFS. It drops the Miller B and develops the primary off the Carolina coast. It's a step in the right direction so we are mot out of it yet.

 

Yes, I think it was a step in the right direction.  Verbatim, it drops absolutely no precipitation for most, but it is cold enough for a lot of NC.  It gives the DC area a long-lasting light snow/flurry event.  A few of the NC border counties looked like they would receive a flizzard, as well.  It also heads OTS sooner and doesn't hit the NE nearly as hard (though the I-95 corridor does get some moderate snowfall).

 

The trough in the east was a bit deeper and the ridge out west was taller than the 12z run.

 

Now, was it a blip or a trend?  I don't know.

[pcbjr]

Not feeling good about this. I'll give it until Monday.

For what it is worth  ...

 

My NWS has not been able to get a 24 or 48 hour forecast right for the past 9 days. They call for 28 and it is 40; they call for 48 and I wake up to 29; they have had rain in the picture every day and we finally got a 40 minute sprinkle today.

 

Just a very humble observation - the models are not performing well, and the near term and mid term are still way up in the air.

 

Until something settles down - enjoy the Holidays!

 

Respectfully .....

[packbacker]

Yes, I think it was a step in the right direction. Verbatim, it drops absolutely no precipitation for most, but it is cold enough for a lot of NC. It gives the DC area a long-lasting light snow/flurry event. A few of the NC border counties looked like they would receive a flizzard, as well. It also heads OTS sooner and doesn't hit the NE nearly as hard (though the I-95 corridor does get some moderate snowfall).

The trough in the east was a bit deeper and the ridge out west was taller than the 12z run.

Now, was it a blip or a trend? I don't know.

The mean was interesting too, dropped 0.25-0.50" of precip in the eastern half of NC

Actually the individuals sucked, precip output is from being on east side of storms.

[Wow]

Not feeling good about this. I'll give it until Monday. The energy out west gets thrown into the meat grinder on practically every model at around hour 60 or so. The NAM keeps it held together though not too strong and very positively tilted and too fast. We would need it to hang out in the southwest for around 24 hours and then kick to the east while staying together. It's a lot to ask for. 

 

The odds have never been "good" since this got hyped up.

[jburns]

Really.  Wow!!  

 

 

Is it possible to whine some more here?

 

 

 

While all you guys cry about what might or might not happen next weekend.  I'm hoping for a little rain/snow mix this Monday night.  It's much closer and within the range of actually occurring.  (I think this two-day range falls within the jburns window of being worth worrying about!)  From the late afternoon GSP update we have this nugget:

 

 

Bring on the flakes!!  Take the crying somewhere else, please.

 

Yep.  Three days is when I start being interested.  Further out than that I put into this category:

 

The information presented here is for entertainment purposes only. Any real life actions taken are entirely your OWN responsibility.  No responsibility is taken for the truth or accuracy of any maps. 

[Brick Tamland]

Really. Wow!!

Is it possible to whine some more here?

While all you guys cry about what might or might not happen next weekend. I'm hoping for a little rain/snow mix this Monday night. It's much closer and within the range of actually occurring. (I think this two-day range falls within the jburns window of being worth worrying about!) From the late afternoon GSP update we have this nugget:

Bring on the flakes!! Take the crying somewhere else, please.

Well, some flakes would be better than nothing. But when you are going on the third winter without any real snow, and the models keep taking the chances away, I wouldn't call it whining. People are just tired of it happening over and over.

[GaWx]

Fwiw, the 18Z GFS ensemble mean brings the upper trough back to the east from the central US as the 11-15 day period progresses. So, during the extended forecast period, it never gets warm except for 1/7-9.

[burgertime]

The odds have never been "good" since this got hyped up.

 

True true, but we just need something to hype. I'm itching to get something to follow. 

[franklin NCwx]

Euro ensembles and Canadian ensembles look anything but warm going forward. Any warming from the below normal temps is only back up to average.

As for the storm the cmc ensembles are south with no miller b transfer. Looks like a weak low.

[POWERSTROKE]

True true, but we just need something to hype. I'm itching to get something to follow.

Can't get hyped up 8 days out. We all do but we all know better

[FLweather]

 

 

While all you guys cry about what might or might not happen next weekend.  I'm hoping for a little rain/snow mix this Monday night.  It's much closer and within the range of actually occurring.  (I think this two-day range falls within the jburns window of being worth worrying about!)  From the late afternoon GSP update we have this nugget:

 

 

 

Amen to that. I think too many folks look at the maybes or could be. While I'll settle with my light snow event this monday in all probabilty .... still questions to be answer with this one. If the engery dives deep enough and fast enough and the plume of moisture associated with the longwave trough axis is close enough then this could get energized and juicy rather quickly.