GaffneyPeach Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It's confusing in here. Some saying GFS looks great in the long run, others saying not too exciting and more of the same?? Which is it? I second this question and observation. Geezzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It's gotta be cold before it's gonna snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It's confusing in here. Some saying GFS looks great in the long run, others saying not too exciting and more of the same?? Which is it? I gotcha man: The first image is the warmest period, post truncation, of the run (276 hrs). The second image is the coldest (240 hrs). There are no literal fantasy storms shown. The pattern is not a great snow pattern, but like has already been said, something could pop up at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 It's confusing in here. Some saying GFS looks great in the long run, others saying not too exciting and more of the same?? Which is it? Without blocking it's not gonna mean a whole lot unless you like what we have had lately, but it does throw out a teaser around the 22nd that will probably be gone with the next run. I've said it 1000 x's...not believing anything until I see some blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It's confusing in here. Some saying GFS looks great in the long run, others saying not too exciting and more of the same?? Which is it? From my perspective, I don't see how it couldn't be considered exciting just because of the incredibly persistent intense cold, alone. If this run comes close to verifying, we could be looking at the coldest January since 1985 in some areas of the SE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 From my perspective, I don't see how it couldn't be considered exciting just because of the incredibly persistent intense cold, alone. If this run comes close to verifying, we could be looking at the coldest January since 1985 in some areas of the SE! I agree, and we can still get some snow from such a pattern, but it would be great if we could get the NAO to cooperate with everything else going on. Still, it should be a fun period with at least a few clippers, assuming the pattern evolves as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I dont know how anyone can look at the GFS and say it looks awful. It may be tough to get a major winter storm with the setup, but light/moderate events are doable and there's certainly plenty of cold to go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 This might make some sick if it played out like this Looks like a mile of difference between the canadian and gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 From my perspective, I don't see how it couldn't be considered exciting just because of the incredibly persistent intense cold, alone. If this run comes close to verifying, we could be looking at the coldest January since 1985 in some areas of the SE! See to me that's like the ultimate TEASE that would just tick me off....who wants a huge peanut butter sandwich...with no jelly. Brickish I know, but so it goes. Not interested in anymore record dry cold. Probably change at 18z anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 This might make some sick if it played out like this Congrats Metalman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 LMAO, that's too suppressed for even a Waycross special (though Waycross does get some). You have to like the look, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 And the canadian isn't done yet. The canadian hasn't been very accurate in the winter weather department down here this winter but it certainly shows an active pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Without blocking it's not gonna mean a whole lot unless you like what we have had lately, but it does throw out a teaser around the 22nd that will probably be gone with the next run. I've said it 1000 x's...not believing anything until I see some blocking Although not impossible, even here in Middle TN it's tough to get a significant snowstorm without a -NAO. Since 1950, only 4 out of 13 (31%) Nashville snowstorms of 6" or more came with a +NAO. I didn't dig much deeper into snows under 6" but I imagine with a similar pattern to what we have showing up, there's a lot of nickel and dime events from clippers. Winters like this year really make you appreciate some ATL blocking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Last 2 Canadian runs have shown clipper after clipper after clipper. Maybe 1 of the 10 will work out in the lowlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It's confusing in here. Some saying GFS looks great in the long run, others saying not too exciting and more of the same?? Which is it? I second this question and observation. Geezzzz I third that. I just read three post that the GFS looks better, much wetter and gives some a good hit of snow Read another post that says its not a good hit, which is it guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Congrats Metalman Congrats NO, mobile, florida panhandle and jacksonville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The GFS basically shows a very cold, northern stream dominated period (out to 240hrs). There could be a few clippers which drop through the SE. I think it's a fairly promising pattern. First, you need the cold. Beats the past couple of winters.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The GFS basically shows a very cold, northern stream dominated period (out to 240hrs). There could be a few clippers which drop through the SE. I think it's a fairly promising pattern. First, you need the cold. Beats the past couple of winters.... That's my entire point! Cold is step one. Step two, you cut a hole in the box, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 That's my entire point! Cold is step one. Step two, you cut a hole in the box, of course. I've seen that video and I'd rather not have it given as a present I can't see myself even trying to get excited over a clipper, even if it's on steroids, because imby it never works out. For those just to my north and west it's a different story and I wish you all a TON of luck/moisture as these roll threw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Don't look now but the 12Z Euro is rather intriguing for the next system following the Wed one- on Friday it has another close call rain or snow situation for folks in GA and other parts of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Don't look now but the 12Z Euro is rather intriguing for the next system following the Wed one- on Friday it has another close call rain or snow situation for folks in GA and other parts of the SE. Yep looks like it has some potential for sure. Discussing it in your Wed. thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Yep looks like it has some potential for sure. Discussing it in your Wed. thread. Do we need a new thread? I don't really like have a lot of threads going at the same time, however there is some potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Do we need a new thread? New thread here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42394-117-118-snow-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Congrats NO, mobile, florida panhandle and jacksonville Bullseye! I'll faint if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Bullseye! I'll faint if this verifies. Yeah me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 FWIW, the Euro is pretty cold most of the LR. The PNA ridge stays put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 FWIW, the Euro is pretty cold most of the LR. The PNA ridge stays put. Not only that, but the Atlantic has some ridging in Greenland from hour 144 through the end of the run. If the day 10 euro is correct, winter would soon be rocking in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Not only that, but the Atlantic has some ridging in Greenland from hour 144 through the end of the run. If the day 10 euro is correct, winter would soon be rocking in the SE. Let's rock. The GFS Ens members on eWall look cold as well. There isn't much ridging there in the NAO space, but the PNA stands firm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 OK, question time for me. Why do we desperately need a -NAO block go get a good snow? My guess is that it would allow a potential storm more time to develop before it gets out of the SE. It just seems as if we should still have opportunities with such a tall ridge in the west. All of the energy seems to want to head due east out of the Rockies instead of digging for the gulf. Would a -NAO help systems dig further out west too? I'll admit a little frustration with us having a pattern that has been both very wet and very cold, but has yet to produce much winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 OK, question time for me. Why do we desperately need a -NAO block go get a good snow? My guess is that it would allow a potential storm more time to develop before it gets out of the SE. It just seems as if we should still have opportunities with such a tall ridge in the west. All of the energy seems to want to head due east out of the Rockies instead of digging for the gulf. Would a -NAO help systems dig further out west too? I'll admit a little frustration with us having a pattern that has been both very wet and very cold, but has yet to produce much winter weather. Very wet OR very cold. The problem has been getting both at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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