Jon Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Why the GFS is bad....00z runs of GFS/Euro Operational and Ensemble runs valid 12z 1/18....My point here is not timing in the trough but ensemble support of the operational. 00z GFS OP 00z GFS Ensemble mean 00z Euro OP 00z Euro Ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 "Some people" *ahem, cough cough, BT, cough, ahem* see a storm 5 days or more out and when it verifies north, south, east, or west will bemoan how imperfect the models are. Patterns support storms, not models. Reread what Jon said. The fact that a model, showing a storm in an unsupportive pattern, turns out to be wrong should surprise no one who has been on this board for more than 5 minutes in the winter. But "some people" end up getting disappointed anyway. The fact that a model, showing a storm in a supportive pattern, turns out to be right about the storm but verifies differently than was depicted 5 days earlier, should surprise no one who has been on this board for more than 5 mintues in the winter. But "some people" end up getting disappointed anyway. The fact that a model, showing a sustained cold and snowy pattern a week or more out, turns out to be wrong on the pattern, should surprise no one who has been on this board for more than 5 minutes in the winter. But "some people" will end up getting disappointed anyway. "Some people" are never, ever, and the Rock means, eeeeeeeeeever going to be happy until computer models can accurately show a snowstorm 5 days or more over their house. And do you know what will happen when that day finally comes? They will hardly ever see a snowstorm 5 days or more over their house. And of course, they will end up disappointed about that too. Good post and I agree 100%. I haven't posted much this winter but check the models everyday for the 12z and 0z runs (0z euro the next morning) and the ensembles. Part of the reason that I haven't posted much is because there really hasn't been much to discuss. As you mentioned above, patterns support storms, and I haven't really seen a pattern to get excited about so far. The frustrating part to me is when someone comes in and starts complaining about the models when that person doesn't even check the models. That is just laughable to me. This is based on what has happened the last three winters when we did have a model show a potential winter storm. To be honest, I don't read the models myself, just discuss them when people talk about them here. And I think I made a valid point about the GFS and the Euro the last three winters. I asked the question about the GFS because I was wondering if that was the case with it being so bad it can't even see the potential like the Euro does, so therefore it can't go away if it's not showing anything in the first place. Jon explained it well, which is what I was trying to figure out with why it seems the Euro has been so bad. Really, it seems the GFS and Euro has both been equally as bad in some ways, just in different ways, when it comes to the long range. How do you know how bad a model has been unless you check the models and there ensembles? Imo you can't complain about how bad a model has been or how good it has been if you don't even look at them. If you start studying the models and there ensembles you might start to understand what I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Good post and I agree 100%. I haven't posted much this winter but check the models everyday for the 12z and 0z runs (0z euro the next morning) and the ensembles. Part of the reason that I haven't posted much is because there really hasn't been much to discuss. As you mentioned above, patterns support storms, and I haven't really seen a pattern to get excited about so far. The frustrating part to me is when someone comes in and starts complaining about the models when that person doesn't even check the models. That is just laughable to me. How do you know how bad a model has been unless you check the models and there ensembles? Imo you can't complain about how bad a model has been or how good it has been if you don't even look at them. If you start studying the models and there ensembles you might start to understand what I'm saying. I understand what you are saying about it doesn't matter what the models say if the pattern doesn't support them. I was just discussing the GFS vs Euro when it comes to them showing winter storms in the long range, and why it appears the Euro has been worse than the GFS, but that really isn't the case. I think Jon explained it well why it really hasn't been worse, but that both have problems with seeing things. See, I am trying to learn. But to be honest, I don't have the time to figure out how these models work, and I am really not that serious about it. This is just a casual hobby for me. If I was serious about it, I would be getting paid to talk about it. Anyway, let's not clutter up the thread about it anymore and get back to folks discussing the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I understand what you are saying about it doesn't matter what the models say if the pattern doesn't support them. I was just discussing the GFS vs Euro when it comes to them showing winter storms in the long range, and why it appears the Euro has been worse than the GFS, but that really isn't the case. I think Jon explained it well why it really hasn't been worse, but that both have problems with seeing things. See, I am trying to learn. But to be honest, I don't have the time to figure out how these models work, and I am really not that serious about it. This is just a casual hobby for me. If I was serious about it, I would be getting paid to talk about it. Anyway, let's not clutter up the thread about it anymore and get back to folks discussing the pattern. Hahaha ok Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 Why must everyone continue to feed the trolls Please take the discussion of why Brick doesn't bother to come up with his own conclusions because he's too lazy into banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Great discussion this morning that many on here should take to heart. Agree completely with what CR, Jon, and RDU have said. Any storm shown on any model in the LR (especially for the SE) is likely to fail and disappoint. If you look for patterns in the LR on the various models and ensembles, then as you get closer, if the pattern is looking to verify, you can begin to see if their is actual storm potential. Doing it the other way around is sure to lead to whining and complaining as we have seen on this forum all winter thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Well well well, the OP GFS finally broke character and now evolves into a completely different solution in the LR than what it has been showing (zonal flow). Much more ridging up in western Canada this run and even a split flow off the west coast at the end. Good to see it step away from the abysmal zonal look it had been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Has anyone called the Europeans today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On my phone euro didn't look bad but sfc temps were problematic. Afterwards pattern could be conducive to something good right after. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 18z GFS keeps most of the south at or below freezing from Jan 15th thru Jan 18th. It brings GA and parts of SC the warmth back on the 19th then slowly progresses north getting everyone above freezing for the 21st, but this looks to be brief. On the 22nd widespread cold follows a disturbance bringing single digit temps to most of NC with widespread teens for GA, SC with the zero line making it past Gainesville all the way into Orlando! This run looks very cold for sure with chances of snow on the I40 line outside of the NC mountains along with some snow showers in NE GA on the 15th (possible clipper system). Rates should be nice with the lower temps that follow and the mountains look to get a nice NWF event after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 18z GFS keeps most of the south at or below freezing from Jan 15th thru Jan 18th. It brings GA and parts of SC the warmth back on the 19th then slowly progresses north getting everyone above freezing for the 21st, but this looks to be brief. On the 22nd widespread cold follows a disturbance bringing single digit temps to most of NC with widespread teens for GA, SC with the zero line making it past Gainesville all the way into Orlando! This run looks very cold for sure with chances of snow on the I40 line outside of the NC mountains along with some snow showers in NE GA on the 15th (possible clipper system). Rates should be nice with the lower temps that follow and the mountains look to get a nice NWF event after. Thanks CR for the 18z analysis. What a flip the GFS has done on the mid to LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Yep, not bad. You can see the GFS is catching on to the blocking in the medium range as well. This could very well be a decent window for snow. I'll take that look at this range any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Thanks CR for the 18z analysis. What a flip the GFS has done on the mid to LR. lol ill take that as a compliment that you confuse me for Cold Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 lol ill take that as a compliment that you confuse me for Cold Rain. Lol my bad! Well great analysis Hvward! Not really paying attention to closely with my one year old running ramped right know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Lol my bad! Well great analysis Hvward! Not really paying attention to closely with my one year old running ramped right know. CR has great posts haha I am honored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 FWIW, it looks like the GFS Ensemble has trended toward the Euro Ensemble in the long range of keeping more of a trough in the east. 12z Euro Ensemble brings the western ridge axis inland to the Rocky Mtns. at day 10 before retrograding it into the NE Pacific for days 12-15 for a -EPO / +PNA look of ridge up into Alaska and Western Canada, with trough in central and eastern U.S. Euro Ens has temperatures mostly below normal from days 5-15. NAO is fairly negative for days 2-7 before trending back to positive in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 6z GFS was not that bad in the LR. It would have a potential storm after day 12; definitely in fantasy land but it does depict a favorable pattern. The indices from the CPC site basically show everything trending towards neutral readings in the LR(but also that could be suspect). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 FWIW, it looks like the GFS Ensemble has trended toward the Euro Ensemble in the long range of keeping more of a trough in the east. 12z Euro Ensemble brings the western ridge axis inland to the Rocky Mtns. at day 10 before retrograding it into the NE Pacific for days 12-15 for a -EPO / +PNA look of ridge up into Alaska and Western Canada, with trough in central and eastern U.S. Euro Ens has temperatures mostly below normal from days 5-15. NAO is fairly negative for days 2-7 before trending back to positive in the extended.even bigger move on the 6z gefs. 0z euro ensembles continue the idea of retrograding the pna and pumping it more towards the pole. The day 15 ensemble mean continues to deepen the eastern trough with the axis a little farther west to support a better "snow pattern". Should also add the euro ensembleshint at a more involved southern stream since its been non existent all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The MJO pulse showing signs of waking up out if it's slumber. The models are hinting at a move to phase 7. Hopefully it will keep trending West to phase 8 and 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Euro ensembles still very bullish on winter. The gfs ensembles have folded to the Euro ensembles. This is about the fourth run in a row of retrograding the ridge, this would be a good cold pattern. Only lacking the nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Euro ensembles still very bullish on winter. The gfs ensembles have folded to the Euro ensembles. This is about the fourth run in a row of retrograding the ridge, this would be a good cold pattern. Only lacking the nao. eps_z500a_nh_61-1.png I agree. Still a lot of winter left on the table. I liked the Euro cold shots coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I agree, 18z GEFS folded big time....last frame of the following image looks a lot like the 12z Euro Ensembles with the blocking over the top trapping the PV. cold the 15th through the end of the month in the east, the GEFS finally figured out where to set up the trough it had misplaced for several runs. The Euro control is ridiculous and cold at the end of the month with #polarvortex2 likely trending before Feb 1st. Fab Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 So, it looks like it is going to be cold again. But isn't going to bring the snow with it or just stay dry like it has every other time? That is the big question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Ya the Euro again handing it to the GFS in my opinion. Whatever was wrong with the Euro earlier in the season with some erratic model solutions seems to have found its bearings the past few weeks. It has done very well sniffing out the patterns up to 10 plus days out. The GFS on th other hand seems to keep getting lost a lot these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 00z GFS looks much better in the LR. Looks like it's finally catching on to the ensembles. Might even have a fantasy blizzard out past 300 if it doesn't cut up the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 00z GFS looks much better in the LR. Looks like it's finally catching on to the ensembles. Might even have a fantasy blizzard out past 300 if it doesn't cut up the Apps. Yeah, the 0Z Sunday 1/12 GFS is basically saying that JB is a genius. JB has done well this winter. If this trend holds up, those warm 11-15 day runs from Thu (all 4), Fri (all but 18Z), and the 0Z of Saturday are all going to end up verifying as horrible busts. We'll see. I know JB is rooting for that to be the case lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 If the current model runs verify, a below normal January is a lock. Much better than the last couple of years. For those who measure the winter by the amount of snow that falls, (Brick) this is a good pattern coming up and it is loaded with possibilities. It is also a good period climo-wise for a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Yeah, the 0Z Sunday 1/12 GFS is basically saying that JB is a genius. JB has done well this winter. If this trend holds up, those warm 11-15 day runs from Thu (all 4), Fri (all but 18Z), and the 0Z of Saturday are all going to end up verifying as horrible busts. We'll see. I know JB is rooting for that to be the case lol. Yep, it seems like the cold is over performing this year as opposed to the warmth over performing in winters past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I can say for certain that none of the colder trends are even hinted at in the local point and click forecasts much less the local news. So there are some significant adjustments forthcoming if this to verify. I cant remember the last time we had a below normal jan/feb? Anyone? (For the triad area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Yep when I read everyones forecast no one is really talking or showing the cold temps that the models are hinting at. There will have to be some adjustments soon for the forecast if the models are right. For the snow on Wednesday GSP thinks the snow will get to the valley floors but not much is being said yet about that. Some models were showing around Avl 1-2 inches of snow Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame and a dusting as far south as Atlanta. I guess until event is closer nothing much will be said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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