Wow Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Day 15 trough deepens from day 14! eps_z500a_nh_61.png No greenland blocking. That's not going to produce anything of significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 No greenland blocking. That's not going to produce anything of significance.no southern stream either. Could produce an i-95 runner, fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 the type of snow with the big +pna ridge supports smaller clipper type events , I don't think we can get a big storm but a 1-3 event is definitely doable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Clipper Events always have the chance of blowing up in the lee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Clipper Events always have the chance of blowing up in the lee Yes they do. I think we all know what happened in 2003. Looking at the indices today, we will have a +PNA along with a -AO. Too bad the NAO will be headed positive or we would be talking about the possibility of a widespread winter storm. Don't let your guard down. This could still get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Clipper Events always have the chance of blowing up in the lee True, and from the looks of things right now that's our best hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 We need that Greenland block. Maybe the second half of winter? Uh oh, there THAT is again. I know....I know.... No greenland blocking. That's not going to produce anything of significance. No it's not....sigh.......but you never know what might slide threw just enough for some to enjoy the view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 True, and from the looks of things right now that's our best hope! I've saw clippers give us a decent snow and i've saw them jump over us and hit further east. You just don't necver know what you will get.Dec 5th I believe was got aclipper that wassuppised to be a dusting and we received 4in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Jeeze - Just got home. I should have told the Judge to let the jury keep going. Sitting in an empty courtroom while a jury deliberates is more exciting than getting home to the 18Z .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Jeeze - Just got home. I should have told the Judge to let the jury keep going. Sitting in an empty courtroom is more exciting than getting home to the 18Z .... Indeed... I get more excited picking out socks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 For what it's worth, JB has the action for snow well north and west of us next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The 0Z Euro sure does look cold in the 6-10 day period for the SE US with much below normal temp.'s. In Atlanta and many other inland spots, highs are only in the 30's and 40's every day 1/15-19. This was looking to be a torchy period just a few days ago! The models have been pretty bad overall and too warm in most cases. I must give JB credit here. Furthermore, on day 10 fwiw, it shows west coast ridging rebuilding once again. If that occurs, it may be foreshadowing still another cold period late this month. Edit: Also, this model run is showing snow for parts of the SE with snow in much of E TN, most of NC, and far NE GA and NW SC 1/15-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The 0Z Euro sure does look cold in the 6-10 day period for the SE US with much below normal temp.'s. In Atlanta and many other inland spots, highs are only in the 30's and 40's every day 1/15-19. This was looking to be a torchy period just a few days ago! The models have been pretty bad overall and too warm in most cases. I must give JB credit here. Furthermore, on day 10 fwiw, it shows west coast ridging rebuilding once again. If that occurs, it may be foreshadowing still another cold period late this month. Edit: Also, this model run is showing snow for parts of the SE with snow in much of E TN, most of NC, and far NE GA and NW SC 1/15-16. Next Wed into Thursday! Lets see if we can real this one in. The euro has a habit over the past 2 winters of honking when 6-7 days out only to pull the rug out from under us. It's still very dependable from day 5 in if you can get 2 runs in a row and get a vote of confidence from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Next Wed into Thursday! Lets see if we can real this one in. The euro has a habit over the past 2 winters of honking when 6-7 days out only to pull the rug out from under us. It's still very dependable from day 5 in if you can get 2 runs in a row and get a vote of confidence from the NAM. Agreed, it's shown us several day 6/7 events, if it shows consecutive runs in a row inside day 5 we might have some hope. The Euro has turned into the JMA at day 7 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 For those curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Next Wed into Thursday! Lets see if we can real this one in. The euro has a habit over the past 2 winters of honking when 6-7 days out only to pull the rug out from under us. It's still very dependable from day 5 in if you can get 2 runs in a row and get a vote of confidence from the NAM. I'm not sure that run is exactly "honking" at anything significant...yet! So that might actually be a good thing and gave the Euro a chance at making a bigger deal out of what looks to be a possible cutoff developing in the Southeast later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Agreed, it's shown us several day 6/7 events, if it shows consecutive runs in a row inside day 5 we might have some hope. The Euro has turned into the JMA at day 7 range. Last night pretty much all models were showing this small event. Certainly gives hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Wow, I'd be interested in seeing what the Euro showed. That clown map shows 3-4" here. I'm still on vacation, but it does seem that this period bears watching when I get back in a couple days. We're really not talking about fantasy at this time frame and I think most of us would be overjoyed just to see some snow accumulate on the ground, even if it isn't much. EDIT: I see Cheez started up a thread about this threat last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Wow, I'd be interested in seeing what the Euro showed. That clown map shows 3-4" here. I'm still on vacation, but it does seem that this period bears watching when I get back in a couple days. We're really not talking about fantasy at this time frame and I think most of us would be overjoyed just to see some snow accumulate on the ground, even if it isn't much. That sounds about right. There's close to .6 for INT, haven't checked GSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I'm not sure that run is exactly "honking" at anything significant...yet! So that might actually be a good thing and gave the Euro a chance at making a bigger deal out of what looks to be a possible cutoff developing in the Southeast later next week. Or could be the Euro over amplifying the pattern and storm as with other cases this winter as well. Last night pretty much all models were showing this small event. Certainly gives hope. Last couple of days GFS and GEM has been showing a storm for that time frame. Just not a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Larry Cosgrove put this on Facebook a few minutes ago and I think it is a good question: 2) After its success in predicting the vast, major warm-up across the entire country from two weeks ago, how come most are ignoring the ECMWF ensemble group and its prediction of storms and cold weather in the South and East after January 15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Larry Cosgrove put this on Facebook a few minutes ago and I think it is a good question: 2) After its success in predicting the vast, major warm-up across the entire country from two weeks ago, how come most are ignoring the ECMWF ensemble group and its prediction of storms and cold weather in the South and East after January 15? I think the simple answer is because we are going on the third winter without having any thing, and more likely than not those storms don't turn out happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Or could be the Euro over amplifying the pattern and storm as with other cases this winter as well. That's very possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Larry Cosgrove put this on Facebook a few minutes ago and I think it is a good question: 2) After its success in predicting the vast, major warm-up across the entire country from two weeks ago, how come most are ignoring the ECMWF ensemble group and its prediction of storms and cold weather in the South and East after January 15? This is a no-brainer. GFS is terrible, yet cliff diving weenies pay such close attention to this low res post truncation garbage we call the LR GooFuS and ignore the Euro. People also pay too much attention to Op runs and not enough attention to the ensembles. Maybe it's because they don't have access to Euro ensembles & control runs that go out to 15 days, so they have nothing to compare the GFS Op/Ens to, who knows. Just take a look at the 06z Op GFS and compare it to the 00z Op and you'll see why it's a terrible model. Sometimes, people see what they want to see and think what they want to think depending on their bias, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 This is a no-brainer. GFS is terrible, yet cliff diving weenies pay such close attention to this low res post truncation garbage we call the LR GooFuS and ignore the Euro. People also pay too much attention to Op runs and not enough attention to the ensembles. Maybe it's because they don't have access to Euro ensembles & control runs that go out to 15 days, so they have nothing to compare the GFS Op/Ens to, who knows. Just take a look at the 06z Op GFS and compare it to the 00z Op and you'll see why it's a terrible model. Sometimes, people see what they want to see and think what they want to think depending on their bias, so there's that. But the Euro has been the one showing storms in the long range only for them to go away down the road the last three winters. GFS might be terrible, too, but it hasn't been showing storms that don't happen like the Euro has been. Maybe it's because the GFS is so awful it can't even see the potential. So, which is better? Not being able to see potential at all, or showing fantasy storms that keep remaining fantasies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 But the Euro has been the one showing storms in the long range only for them to go away down the road the last three winters. GFS might be terrible, too, but it hasn't been showing storms that don't happen like the Euro has been. Maybe it's because the GFS is so awful it can't even see the potential. So, which is better? Not being able to see potential at all, or showing fantasy storms that keep remaining fantasies? The quote was more about pattern, but talking storms, the bold is true here. Since it can't giveth, it doesn't taketh away. You can't get a 12" snow map in Raleigh with a ridge and higher than normal temperatures, so the GFS looks better because once it finally figures out the pattern inside 100 something ours it pops a snow map along with it. People need to be able to temper there expectations with fantasy hour fantasy storms, period. The larger factor, which in most cases is still undetermined, is the pattern we're going to be in to support those fantasy storms. If the pattern doesn't support it, throw it out. A lot of people do not do that and that's their bias, wanting to see something that will only be gone in a few runs, then the Euro all of a sudden sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 But the Euro has been the one showing storms in the long range only for them to go away down the road the last three winters. GFS might be terrible, too, but it hasn't been showing storms that don't happen like the Euro has been. Maybe it's because the GFS is so awful it can't even see the potential. So, which is better? Not being able to see potential at all, or showing fantasy storms that keep remaining fantasies? Just out of curiosity do you actually look at the models or just go by what is being said in forums and FB? If you do look at the models which service do you use? Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Just out of curiosity do you actually look at the models or just go by what is being said in forums and FB? If you do look at the models which service do you use? Ensembles? He doesnt. He's one of the new breed here that have absolutely no interest in bettering themselves as posters. A lot of new(ish) people are happy to be crappy posters and it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Just out of curiosity do you actually look at the models or just go by what is being said in forums and FB? If you do look at the models which service do you use? Ensembles? "Some people" *ahem, cough cough, BT, cough, ahem* see a storm 5 days or more out and when it verifies north, south, east, or west will bemoan how imperfect the models are. Patterns support storms, not models. Reread what Jon said. The fact that a model, showing a storm in an unsupportive pattern, turns out to be wrong should surprise no one who has been on this board for more than 5 minutes in the winter. But "some people" end up getting disappointed anyway. The fact that a model, showing a storm in a supportive pattern, turns out to be right about the storm but verifies differently than was depicted 5 days earlier, should surprise no one who has been on this board for more than 5 mintues in the winter. But "some people" end up getting disappointed anyway. The fact that a model, showing a sustained cold and snowy pattern a week or more out, turns out to be wrong on the pattern, should surprise no one who has been on this board for more than 5 minutes in the winter. But "some people" will end up getting disappointed anyway. "Some people" are never, ever, and the Rock means, eeeeeeeeeever going to be happy until computer models can accurately show a snowstorm 5 days or more over their house. And do you know what will happen when that day finally comes? They will hardly ever see a snowstorm 5 days or more over their house. And of course, they will end up disappointed about that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The quote was more about pattern, but talking storms, the bold is true here. Since it can't giveth, it doesn't taketh away. You can't get a 12" snow map in Raleigh with a ridge and higher than normal temperatures, so the GFS looks better because once it finally figures out the pattern inside 100 something ours it pops a snow map along with it. People need to be able to temper there expectations with fantasy hour fantasy storms, period. The larger factor, which in most cases is still undetermined, is the pattern we're going to be in to support those fantasy storms. If the pattern doesn't support it, throw it out. A lot of people do not do that and that's their bias, wanting to see something that will only be gone in a few runs, then the Euro all of a sudden sucks. Just out of curiosity do you actually look at the models or just go by what is being said in forums and FB? If you do look at the models which service do you use? Ensembles? This is based on what has happened the last three winters when we did have a model show a potential winter storm. To be honest, I don't read the models myself, just discuss them when people talk about them here. And I think I made a valid point about the GFS and the Euro the last three winters. I asked the question about the GFS because I was wondering if that was the case with it being so bad it can't even see the potential like the Euro does, so therefore it can't go away if it's not showing anything in the first place. Jon explained it well, which is what I was trying to figure out with why it seems the Euro has been so bad. Really, it seems the GFS and Euro has both been equally as bad in some ways, just in different ways, when it comes to the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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