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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

http://www.sercc.com/climateinfo/historical/avgsnowfall.html

quote name="Brick Tamland" post="2629891" timestamp="1389294825"]

There were 6 stories about December snows in the link. Five about February. December has been just as good as February. Yes, you can have one big storm in February to up the average for that month. My point is we have had just as many, actually more chances in December than February in getting snow here since 2000. There was only one storm in March in the link. The pattern since 2000 has been if we don't get snow in December or Janauary, we most likely won't get any in February, and about zero chances in March.

I actually think February averages more snowfall than Janaury overall for Raleigh, but that really hasn't been the case since 2000. January has blown February out of the water.

you are using a very small data set and one can argue its data at all. Im am talking long-term record keeping and using the whole region, not one southeast city.

 

I understand, but I really only care about getting snow here. That is why I was talking about central NC. Looks like the link you provided has Jan and Feb close to the same average, with March above December. Just saying that has not been the case here since 2000. Jan has gone way up in average, December has gone up, February has gone down, and March has gone way down. Of course, that can change, but that's the way it has been since 2000 and it hasn;t changed yet. Maybe this winter will be the start and we'll have a huge February.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

When I was young (in the 70's and 80's), snow before Jan 1 was quite rare, but quite normal in February. March probably beat out December as well. Over the past 10 year, there hasn't been too much in February and next to nothing in March. In my opinion, the December and February numbers are slightly anomolous over the last 12-13 years - just in opposite directions.

TW[/quote

Unfortunately the winter of 09-10 10-11, really hurt the winter perspective on the board. Because those two Decembers were so great for snow people expect heavy snow from thanksgiving to Christmas when big dec snows are actually rare. Before December 09 I can't remember a big December snowstorm in western nc. Even from the 80's or 90's. The big snows were from after new years till mid May.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

It's Euro time, buddies!  This is the one:

Well, I've liked the end of next week on Goofy, and Larry, talked about a storm then on the Doc.  And now you like it.  It's in the bag.  Goofy has light precip sort of draping this way and that, and that's what we want to see way out there....sort of a nebulas draping of light sleet/snow over most of us, in a disorganized way..  Notice good storms in the long range never happen, but disorganized sort of meh situations can pop, in the short run, lol.  I like it better than the torch talk coming back again, though the torch never happens either, so I guess as long as they talk about it, it won't happen.  If it's a normal winter, like I think it will be, then it will get hot some, and cold some, and in between some.  I'm feeling in betweenish right now, so that means the heat will come sooner, and the cold again soon.  And that's about right for mid week on :)  T

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packbacker

packbacker

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Are you kidding me? The euro called the arctic shot from 10 days away.

The Euro has been good inside 10 days, although the GFS has too, but the GFS has been fairly good sniffing out changes in the 11-15 day range. I am not talking about how either model has been handling specific threats, just overall setup.

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tarheelwx

tarheelwx

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When I was young (in the 70's and 80's), snow before Jan 1 was quite rare, but quite normal in February. March probably beat out December as well. Over the past 10 year, there hasn't been too much in February and next to nothing in March. In my opinion, the December and February numbers are slightly anomolous over the last 12-13 years - just in opposite directions.

TW[/quote

Unfortunately the winter of 09-10 10-11, really hurt the winter perspective on the board. Because those two Decembers were so great for snow people expect heavy snow from thanksgiving to Christmas when big dec snows are actually rare. Before December 09 I can't remember a big December snowstorm in western nc. Even from the 80's or 90's. The big snows were from after new years till mid May.

We did have a good storm in early December in 01 or 02 - I can't remember which.  Many places had major ice, but here in Colfax, we had about 6" of snow and then a nice crust on top. 

TW

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
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:lol:   Is it guaranteed?   :P   :hug:

 

Oh, that's a subscription based service now...25% off for all AmWx members. Haha :D 

 

Well, I've liked the end of next week on Goofy, and Larry, talked about a storm then on the Doc.  And now you like it.  It's in the bag.  Goofy has light precip sort of draping this way and that, and that's what we want to see way out there....sort of a nebulas draping of light sleet/snow over most of us, in a disorganized way..  Notice good storms in the long range never happen, but disorganized sort of meh situations can pop, in the short run, lol.  I like it better than the torch talk coming back again, though the torch never happens either, so I guess as long as they talk about it, it won't happen.  If it's a normal winter, like I think it will be, then it will get hot some, and cold some, and in between some.  I'm feeling in betweenish right now, so that means the heat will come sooner, and the cold again soon.  And that's about right for mid week on :)  T

 

Yeah the GFS is a mess and the Euro has the storm just a little too far east.  The needle is there for the threading, though.  That's the important thing. :)

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

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Oh, that's a subscription based service now...25% off for all AmWx members. Haha  :D

 

 

Yeah the GFS is a mess and the Euro has the storm just a little too far east.  The needle is there for the threading, though.  That's the important thing. :)

:lol:  well played  :P   

 

Can you please make the needle slightly bigger? 

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Cheeznado

Cheeznado

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What I am more interested in is the possible significant snowshower/flurry event on or about the 15th. Op Euro may be too deep, ensembles have a high spread and it is somewhat of an outlier. But some sort of strong vorticity is forecast to dig into the area by other models (GGEM, UKMET) and it fits with the re-amplification of the EPAC ridge. This type of event will almost never gives the SE more than an inch or two (except in the mountains), but at least we have something to follow.

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Met1985

Met1985

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I think the GFS has done better this winter. The Euro has shown a few fantasy storms in the long range, only to cave to the GFS. The GFS has been Dr. No and has been right.

Meh both models have had there issues. I can pull numerous post were people were saying that the Euro was wrong about the huge blast of arctic air that just came through. Several people were saying no way that happens there is no snow on the ground. Look what we got and also the Euro started sniffing that pattern out at day 10 also. As far as storms go ya both models have been pretty off this season.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
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From CPC Aftn Update:

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE  IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR  THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE 6-10 DAY MEAN. A RIDGE IS FORECAST  OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MORE  WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BASED ON ITS SKILL DURING  THE PAST 60 DAYS ASSESSED BY ANOMALY CORRELATIONS.
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Met1985

Met1985

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From CPC Aftn Update:

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE  IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR  THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE 6-10 DAY MEAN. A RIDGE IS FORECAST  OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MORE  WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BASED ON ITS SKILL DURING  THE PAST 60 DAYS ASSESSED BY ANOMALY CORRELATIONS.

Thanks for posting Griteater.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Wow, fwiw, the 18Z GFS is much colder in the 6-15 day period than earlier runs! It looks like the 12Z Euro. 

 

Edit: clarification. It is colder in the SE in the 11-15 day period. In the 6-10, it is much colder but that's to the north of us.

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