Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

[buckeyefan1]

Larry, just as a snow storm (would be) in that time frame; you know that run is 75% false.  Little stupid changes effect the whole run.

 

No to get political exaclty.. but we need to spend our money on weather models etc and not other crap we are here in the states lately.

 

I generally only fear if the Euro and GFS match up for a given time when the times look horrible.  If the Euro matches tonight at all (even close) I'll eat crow and turn into Widre about snow/winter chances in the SE areas.

 

 

Edit:

 

Let me add, I still think areas like Tony's and Columbia SC see an ice threat before the seasons over just by how many times the strong HP/weaker systems have shown up.  And to get more weenie about it... my fireplace has a hole in the liner I saw yesterday... cant get it fixed until the 25th.  Makes sense..mby would end up with one with a tree falling across my main power line to my house (again) and forcing me into a hotel.  Hopefully Michelle doesn't have any issues like I would.  ( i do have that name correct, buckeye?)

So far no issues with the fireplace and yes....you have my name correct   btw.....no worries on any winter threat according to the gfs   

[Jon]

In the LR past day 13/14 the GFS has been constant at indicating a warm pattern for the eastern US. I know this is a model time period that is ussually laughed at but it has not wavered on this idea for the last couple of days. Even the indices could provide some support to this where the NAO is showing a positive signiture and the AO could go any way. The PNA looks to stay positive giving us a little hope. Maybe it's wrong like the many times it shows cold but as we get closer it loses it. What do you guys think?  

The GEFS indices from the CPC site? The GFS ens breaks down the PNA like the OP but they do it in two different ways. The long range GFS was wrong about the warm up it modeled for 1/07(first without support from it's ensemble then slightly with support with a few ensemble runs, then it caught on to the cold). The GFS OP PNA goes off the charts around 1/18 then crashes and burns immediately afterwards. The ENS don't support this crash. Obviously the Euro doesn't go this far out, but it has no such breakdown by 240 because it rebuilds, this is important for a sustained cold pattern. If we don't see this, it will be transient like our last cold and we would expect the PNA to break down and rebuild as the GFS OP is saying, much like what we're currently experiencing, although I think it's modeled incorrectly. We'll see what the 12z runs & ENS say, but like you alluded to, trusting any model 13-14 day time period outside of 240 is kind of silly, even if they are hinting at a ridge, you have to think if the GFS has a bias towards modeling a ridge days 13-14 over a trough. It didn't work out last time for the GFS as it was likely overdoing the thaw we're currently heading into, thus incorrectly modeling the PV intrusion.

[mackerel_sky]

12 z GFS ? Must have held serve with zonal flow from last night ? No pbp

[packfan98]

12 z GFS ? Must have held serve with zonal flow from last night ? No pbp

No model has been getting a pbp lately.  Looks like we are at least a week away from having something close enough to track.  Right now we are looking for long term consistency to see how the pattern will unfold for the end of the month and February.  I guess nobody is typing because we all have our fingers crossed!

[FallsLake]

The GEFS indices from the CPC site? The GFS ens breaks down the PNA like the OP but they do it in two different ways. The long range GFS was wrong about the warm up it modeled for 1/07(first without support from it's ensemble then slightly with support with a few ensemble runs, then it caught on to the cold). The GFS OP PNA goes off the charts around 1/18 then crashes and burns immediately afterwards. The ENS don't support this crash. Obviously the Euro doesn't go this far out, but it has no such breakdown by 240 because it rebuilds, this is important for a sustained cold pattern. If we don't see this, it will be transient like our last cold and we would expect the PNA to break down and rebuild as the GFS OP is saying, much like what we're currently experiencing, although I think it's modeled incorrectly. We'll see what the 12z runs & ENS say, but like you alluded to, trusting any model 13-14 day time period outside of 240 is kind of silly, even if they are hinting at a ridge, you have to think if the GFS has a bias towards modeling a ridge days 13-14 over a trough. It didn't work out last time for the GFS as it was likely overdoing the thaw we're currently heading into, thus incorrectly modeling the PV intrusion.

I agree... Just looking out to day 8/9, the indices (from CPC site) show favorable depictions for the NAO, PNA, and AO. The 12z GFS also looks interesting at this time period. So the big question is do you guys think the look of day 8 continues or does it quickly break down to the horrible look the GFS has from day 12 to 16  

 

Edit: I was reading JBs tweet and he stated that the US models were wrong with the warm look. We'll see 

[GaWx]

I agree... Just looking out to day 8/9, the indices (from CPC site) show favorable depictions for the NAO, PNA, and AO. The 12z GFS also looks interesting at this time period. So the big question is do you guys think the look of day 8 continues or does it quickly break down to the horrible look the GFS has from day 12 to 16  

 

Edit: I was reading JBs tweet and he stated that the US models were wrong with the warm look. We'll see 

 

JB is biased. He has low credibility as far as I'm concerned. How often does he say a cold look is wrong? Not often at all.

[franklin NCwx]

JB is biased. He has low credibility as far as I'm concerned. How often does he say a cold look is wrong? Not often at all.

his forecasts seem to be spot on this year.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

his forecasts seem to be spot on this year.

 

 

his forecasts seem to be spot on this year.

I second that comment .

[GaWx]

his forecasts seem to be spot on this year.

 

The blind squirrel will find its nut sometimes. Regardless, he's biased cold and has energy clients, which affect what he publicly says because he wants energy prices to be higher. How often does he question why energy prices are rising when weather warm? I've never read one tweet saying that. How often does he question why energy prices are falling when cold? Constantly in his tweets. He touts energy to try to get prices up. He's biased bigtime. That's his choice to make but it is best that people recognize his bias.

[Cold Rain]

The 132 - 240 hr time frame is interesting to me.  Several troughs sharpen up over the east, although there is very little show in the way of a storm, in our area, on the OP model.  The Euro and Canadian are in general agreement with the big PNA and the trough in the east with various s/ws digging in.  Mostly, they don't dig far enough south to pop a storm this far south (although we'll see what the Euro does around d10 this afternoon -- it's been hinting at a big storm, which has looked like an Apps runner to me).  After d10, the GFS goes zonal, although at least at 0/6z, some Ens members keep the amplified pattern.  Here's the GFS at d10.  Let's hope it's out to lunch, because we go basically zonal through the end of the run, with no cold air to be found.  Yuck.

 

 

[buckeyefan1]

The blind squirrel will find its nut sometimes. Regardless, he's biased cold and has energy clients, which affect what he publicly says because he wants energy prices to be higher. How often does he question why energy prices are rising when weather warm? I've never read one tweet saying that. How often does he question why energy prices are falling when cold? Constantly in his tweets. He touts energy to try to get prices up. He's biased bigtime.

Agreed.....and with that said if anyone would like to carry this conversation further....take it to banter

[mackerel_sky]

The 132 - 240 hr time frame is interesting to me. Several troughs sharpen up over the east, although there is very little show in the way of a storm, in our area, on the OP model. The Euro and Canadian are in general agreement with the big PNA and the trough in the east with various s/ws digging in. Mostly, they don't dig far enough south to pop a storm this far south (although we'll see what the Euro does around d10 this afternoon -- it's been hinting at a big storm, which has looked like an Apps runner to me). After d10, the GFS goes zonal, although at least at 0/6z, some Ens members keep the amplified pattern. Here's the GFS at d10. Let's hope it's out to lunch, because we go basically zonal through the end of the run, with no cold air to be found. Yuck.

Fab Feb?? Tick tock tick tock tick tock. I know our best storms have came in Feb and March through the years, but with this pattern locked in, it's gonna be hard to change

[Brick Tamland]

Fab Feb?? Tick tock tick tock tick tock. I know our best storms have came in Feb and March through the years, but with this pattern locked in, it's gonna be hard to change

 

Not the case here since 2000. Most of our snow has come in December and January. Winter gets shorter and spring comes sooner.

[Cold Rain]

Fab Feb?? Tick tock tick tock tick tock. I know our best storms have came in Feb and March through the years, but with this pattern locked in, it's gonna be hard to change

 

Yeah, there's been a lot of talk this year from MANY different sources about the back half of the winter being the good half.  And like you said, we've tended to score in Feb/March, historically.  We'll see if folks know what they're talking about or not.  If the last half of the winter turn out to be crap in its totality, then it's going to be difficult for me to put even the smallest amount of confidencen in winter forecasts whatsoever, going forward.  Up till now, many have been on board with the storm track sinking south and east, blocking developing during the last half of the winter, active southern branch at times, etc.  We'll see how it turns out.

 

But wrt the bolded, I wouldn't say we're entering into a period that is like the one we're in or have been in, as depicted.  We get the big, tall PNA ridge, that's different than what we've seen a lot so far.  We get a long duration zonal flow, that's different than what we've seen so far.  Regardless of what we end up with, I think it'll be different...good or bad.

[franklin NCwx]

Not the case here since 2000. Most of our snow has come in December and January. Winter gets shorter and spring comes sooner.

can you provide stats to back up this December claim, or is this your opinion? January is the best clinical month for everyone on the board for winter.

Again, I have posted the stats several times you can Google them yourself. February and March average more snow than December for every southeast city I have looked at. Including Raleigh. As far as spring, it never came last year. Snow in April and below freezing temps at the very end of May.

[Poimen]

And right on cue DT just posted on Facebook the day 10-15 EURO ensembles, which indicate a eastern trough/western ridge. He says, "0Z Euro ensembles DAY 10 and DAY 15... impressive cold. Some of these energy mets going on CNBC saying " winter is over no more cold air coming... are looking really REALLY DUMB."

 

And in typical DT fashion, he is bashing the GFS beyond day 6.

We shall see.

[franklin NCwx]

Cmc really digs the trough in the east day 8-10, -20 and below 850 temps into ky. Also has a southern stream wave hanging out of the coast of southern California.

[Brick Tamland]

can you provide stats to back up this December claim, or is this your opinion? January is the best clinical month for everyone on the board for winter.

Again, I have posted the stats several times you can Google them yourself. February and March average more snow than December for every southeast city I have looked at. Including Raleigh. As far as spring, it never came last year. Snow in April and below freezing temps at the very end of May.

 

The overall average, yes. But we have had more snow here in the months of December and January than February and March since 2000. I said the same thing the last two winters when everyone was saying wait until February. And there were stats posted then showing December and January have been better for central NC than February and March since 2000. That is why I hate not seeing anything in December and January now. Yes, we can get some big snow in February, but that has not been the case more often than not since 2000 for central NC.

[packbacker]

And right on cue DT just posted on Facebook the day 10-15 EURO ensembles, which indicate a eastern trough/western ridge. He says, "0Z Euro ensembles DAY 10 and DAY 15... impressive cold. Some of these energy mets going on CNBC saying " winter is over no more cold air coming... are looking really REALLY DUMB."

 

And in typical DT fashion, he is bashing the GFS beyond day 6.

We shall see.

The GEFS has been fairly good in overall setup in the the 11-15 day range and if the 12z GEFS is to be believed it would be winter over after Jan 20th, the PAC is ruined with the AK vortex of death, the Atlantic still sucks, per the 12z GEFS. Would be funny if it was right and Euro caved today. We would need to get our lawn mowers out in early Feb :-)

[franklin NCwx]

168 the euro has that energy over southern California. Positive tilted trough digging down the Rockies. Can we get these two to hook up right?

[franklin NCwx]

The overall average, yes. But we have had more snow here in the months of December and January than February and March since 2000.

do you have a link to show the stats that show this December claim compared to February and March? And that is a very small data set only going back to 2000.

[Brick Tamland]

The GEFS has been fairly good in overall setup in the the 11-15 day range and if the 12z GEFS is to be believed it would be winter over after Jan 20th, the PAC is ruined with the AK vortex of death, the Atlantic still sucks, per the 12z GEFS. Would be funny if it was right and Euro caved today. We would need to get our lawn mowers out in early Feb :-)

 

I think the GFS has done better this winter. The Euro has shown a few fantasy storms in the long range, only to cave to the GFS. The GFS has been Dr. No and has been right.

[Brick Tamland]

do you have a link to show the stats that show this December claim compared to February and March? And that is a very small data set only going back to 2000.

 

I can look for some stats. But it was shown last winter on here to be the case.

[Brick Tamland]

Here is a quick link. There are a couple of these in Feb and March, but the majority are Dec and Jan. Dec and Feb might be closer to each other, with the huge majority in Jan, and nothing in March.

 

 

http://www.wral.com/weather/asset_gallery/4345770/?s=0

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

Here is a quick link. There are a couple of these in Feb and March, but the majority are Dec and Jan. Dec and Feb might be closer to each other, with the huge majority in Jan, and nothing in March.

 

 

http://www.wral.com/weather/asset_gallery/4345770/?s=0

Hard to argue when you have facts on your side. As for March aren't we about due for another 93 storm soon ?

[franklin NCwx]

Here is a quick link. There are a couple of these in Feb and March, but the majority are Dec and Jan. Dec and Feb might be closer to each other, with the huge majority in Jan, and nothing in March.

http://www.wral.com/weather/asset_gallery/4345770/?s=0[/quote

Other than Dec 09 and Dec 10 I see only one other December story on there. Nobody is disputing jan. Again, I repeat that is the best month for snowfall in the southeast. Do you have a better link to show the average breakdown by month? The links I have provided show these averages.

[Cold Rain]

It's Euro time, buddies!  This is the one:

[Brick Tamland]

Here is a quick link. There are a couple of these in Feb and March, but the majority are Dec and Jan. Dec and Feb might be closer to each other, with the huge majority in Jan, and nothing in March.

http://www.wral.com/weather/asset_gallery/4345770/?s=0[/quote

Other than Dec 09 and Dec 10 I see only one other December story on there. Nobody is disputing jan. Again, I repeat that is the best month for snowfall in the southeast. Do you have a better link to show the average breakdown by month? The links I have provided show these averages.

 

There were 6 stories about December snows in the link. Five about February. December has been just as good as February. Yes, you can have one big storm in February to up the average for that month. My point is we have had just as many, actually more chances in December than February in getting snow here since 2000. There was only one storm in March in the link. The pattern since 2000 has been if we don't get snow in December or Janauary, we most likely won't get any in February, and about zero chances in March. 

 

I actually think February averages more snowfall than Janaury overall for Raleigh, but that really hasn't been the case since 2000. January has blown February out of the water.

[tarheelwx]

When I was young (in the 70's and 80's), snow before Jan 1 was quite rare, but quite normal in February.  March probably beat out December as well.  Over the past 10 year, there hasn't been too much in February and next to nothing in March.  In my opinion, the December and February numbers are slightly anomolous over the last 12-13 years - just in opposite directions.

TW

[franklin NCwx]

http://www.sercc.com/climateinfo/historical/avgsnowfall.html

quote name="Brick Tamland" post="2629891" timestamp="1389294825"]

There were 6 stories about December snows in the link. Five about February. December has been just as good as February. Yes, you can have one big storm in February to up the average for that month. My point is we have had just as many, actually more chances in December than February in getting snow here since 2000. There was only one storm in March in the link. The pattern since 2000 has been if we don't get snow in December or Janauary, we most likely won't get any in February, and about zero chances in March.

I actually think February averages more snowfall than Janaury overall for Raleigh, but that really hasn't been the case since 2000. January has blown February out of the water.

you are using a very small data set and one can argue its data at all. Im am talking long-term record keeping and using the whole region, not one southeast city.