buckeyefan1 Posted January 8, 2014 Author Share Posted January 8, 2014 I think it's easy sometimes to get too caught up in specific things like where exactly the ridge axis is. It's true that you don't want it off the west coast or over the Great Lakes. But there is an acceptable range of where the ridge can be. If the flow is very progressive, it can be a little farther west. If it's blocked up, it can be farther east. You also have to take into account the orientation and amplitude of the ridge as well as the strength of the vort diving in. All of those things matter. You can't just take a snapshot and say, "if the ridge was farther east, we'd be in business" or whatever, without taking into account the other factors. In the example above, it initially looks promising. But 24 hours after that image, you get a flattening riding, being bombarded by additional shortwave energy, and a progressive pattern. The low pops over the Lakes and a strong High builds in and dives into the SE virtually assuring another temporary cold and dry pattern (see below). If there was blocking, if there was less energy in the flow, if the vort was stronger, if the ridge was taller/sharper, if if if if if, then the ridge placement in the image in Poiman's post could, in fact, be ideal. Who knows...most likely, 10 days from now, things will look a lot different anyway. I'm more interested in the 180 time frame at this point. It will probably turn out to be garbage, but it's worth watching IMO. If wishes were fishes........ It looks more of the same to me and until I see some consistent blocking(even if it's brief) I'm not getting my hopes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 12z Canadian drops light clipper snow into TN and other parts of the SE next Wed. I know, it's the Canadian, but it gives an example of what the pattern would support. The GFS / GEFS wants to progress the western ridge more to the east...it could be right, or not...long way out for those details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Looks like the Euro is primed for another massive cold dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Lol, I think I remember him being po'ed about the quality of snow that was actually on the ground The trees stole his snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Lol, I think I remember him being po'ed about the quality of snow that was actually on the ground When we were all on another board, I remember when RDU was getting several inches of snow and Widre was bemoaning the fact that the NEXT threat wasn't going to pan out. If Widre ever gets excited about a snowstorm for the south, I WILL buy bread and milk just to celebrate! LOL! Hope you are having a Happy New Year, Tony! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 JB just posted this on FB. Intriguing to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 JB just posted this on FB. Intriguing to say the least. That wave over east TX needs to hang back juuuuust a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 That wave over east TX needs to hang back juuuuust a little bit. It sure does. But just having it modeled is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 JB just posted this on FB. Intriguing to say the least. That wave over east TX needs to hang back juuuuust a little bit. Euro weeklies control had a similar look same time period at the onset of the next polar plunge. Verbatim it would be a hell of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I know Joe Bastardi is really salivating at the idea of a full phase Day 10...but this look at Day 7 this about as impressive a look I have seen so far this winter on the models. in respect to the heights along the West Coast and back into Greenland... While not extreme cold, this will be just your average winter cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The sun is active again: @NWS: Large solar eruption w/Earth-directed CME could produce strong geomagnetic storming Jan 9-10: http://t.co/pFxBDvGIC6 http://t.co/bMmNXHK7XI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 That wave over east TX needs to hang back juuuuust a little bit. Yep and have the panthers & NO win this weekend. Then the saints and old man winter can come marching to town Sunday week. I'm sure the odds are great for all this verifying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 For N GA: I continue to think that IF there is to be a major winter storm this winter, the climo related odds favor it being mainly ZR vs. mainly a snow. The reason is that ENSO is neutral negative, which is the phase for which the highest % of winters had a major ZR: almost half! There have been a whopping 12 major ZR's vs. only 3 major S/IP since the late 1800's during negative neutral ENSO. Most of these 12 ZR's occurred between 1/13 and 2/11. So, we're just about to encounter prime time of sorts. I'm not predicting one but am saying it wouldn't surprise me if there is a major ZR in N GA this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Per JB- Just looked at the ECWMF monthlies. They say winters over. This is the 4th straight month of nothing but warm implied on the model. The danger of course is that will return to its former form and be right. And in spite a great 1st half of the official winter season, continuing to forecast the winter to run into March will destroy the forecast as a whole. So it is challenging Joe and I to up our level and look at what we are doing to see if we want to change what we are doing. I just put out our Feb monthly forecasts to clients and MADE IT COLDER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Per JB- Just looked at the ECWMF monthlies. They say winters over. This is the 4th straight month of nothing but warm implied on the model. The danger of course is that will return to its former form and be right. And in spite a great 1st half of the official winter season, continuing to forecast the winter to run into March will destroy the forecast as a whole. So it is challenging Joe and I to up our level and look at what we are doing to see if we want to change what we are doing. I just put out our Feb monthly forecasts to clients and MADE IT COLDER Must be a hickup on models. He been showing ECWMF going back cold next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 JB just posted this on FB. Intriguing to say the least.Yep he's tooting the blocking and -nao horn toward end of month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Yep he's tooting the blocking and -nao horn toward end of month Yup, and DT is now starting to tout Feb/March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 When we were all on another board, I remember when RDU was getting several inches of snow and Widre was bemoaning the fact that the NEXT threat wasn't going to pan out. If Widre ever gets excited about a snowstorm for the south, I WILL buy bread and milk just to celebrate! LOL! Hope you are having a Happy New Year, Tony! Thanks, Greg, and you too! I asked Santa for a sleet storm, and now Lucky Larry is touting ice storm instead, knowing how much I hate ice storms, so I will to go this route... I want a split flow, and two weeks of blocking, where in an ice storm comes first, then all three ptypes in a bigger one, and finally the big sleet/snow extravangza which blankets the south.....sled 'til you puke weather And this roller coaster the gfs has been showing can do it, if the cold could just slow down some, go deeper, and stay longer, because of our friends in the north Atlantic As long as the rain keeps coming and the cold keeps coming down....shoot, I've rarely gotten that in a lot of winters. It seems forever since the days of the gulf storm and 33. It's usually cold and dry, and warm and wet Never even close enough to think about timing. The last two years weren't all that unusual except for the heat...the results were the same, as a lot of winters with great blocking, and no timing. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I know there was at one time a small threat of freezing rain, miniscule at that, for the favored cad regions Thursday night. Any chance of that happening now, or we just talking about rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 There will be a slight chance of freezing rain Thursday Night and early Friday morning; however, it will be just that. A light freezing rain event for very few people. I am not expecting widespread problem. A heavy rain event is likely over the area Friday through early Sunday morning. Some areas could see 2-3 inches of rain, especially in the favored areas of the Carolinas. I think the GFS may be overdoing estimated rain totals; however, it is a good guide to what you may receive in your backyard. I discuss the timing and have GFS model estimates at the website, www.wxjordan.com. After this event, it looks like another cold snap may be on tap. It does not appear to be as strong as the previous snap; however, the PNA is going to go extremely positive. This is very good for the southeast United States. The forecast model above is very similar to the 12z run of the models, so I will not repost it. The AO is expected to go slightly negative before going positive once again. The NAO continues to be no help, but with the PNA being extremely positive, that could help set up a favorable pattern for some sort of storm. Regardless, warmer than average temperatures are likely for the next seven days, with another cool down possible towards the center of the month; however, I do not think we will see anything similar to what we saw the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I know Joe Bastardi is really salivating at the idea of a full phase Day 10...but this look at Day 7 this about as impressive a look I have seen so far this winter on the models. in respect to the heights along the West Coast and back into Greenland... While not extreme cold, this will be just your average winter cold... The NAO takes a dip right in that time frame. It has been a pretty good signal all winter when it dips...winter storms occur right at that time. Cutters have been usually what happens, but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Do not let Brick see the 0Z GFS day 10+. Repeating, do not let Brick see the 0Z GFS day 10+. This is not for the faint of heart. Hopefully, he's already in bed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I find the 00z gfs very suspect. Its a massive flip. No ridge out west....zonal flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Do not let Brick see the 0Z GFS day 10+. Repeating, do not let Brick see the 0Z GFS day 10+. This is not for the faint of heart. Hopefully, he's already in bed! Larry, just as a snow storm (would be) in that time frame; you know that run is 75% false. Little stupid changes effect the whole run. No to get political exaclty.. but we need to spend our money on weather models etc and not other crap we are here in the states lately. I generally only fear if the Euro and GFS match up for a given time when the times look horrible. If the Euro matches tonight at all (even close) I'll eat crow and turn into Widre about snow/winter chances in the SE areas. Edit: Let me add, I still think areas like Tony's and Columbia SC see an ice threat before the seasons over just by how many times the strong HP/weaker systems have shown up. And to get more weenie about it... my fireplace has a hole in the liner I saw yesterday... cant get it fixed until the 25th. Makes sense..mby would end up with one with a tree falling across my main power line to my house (again) and forcing me into a hotel. Hopefully Michelle doesn't have any issues like I would. ( i do have that name correct, buckeye?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Edit: Let me add, I still think areas like Tony's and Columbia SC see an ice threat before the seasons over just by how many times the strong HP/weaker systems have shown up. Shawn, As I posted earlier, the neutral negative ENSO is the most favorable phase for a N GA major ZR. I wouldn't be surprised if that extended over to your area of SC. So, I think we need to be wary about a major ZR possibility this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Shawn, As I posted earlier, the neutral negative ENSO is the most favorable phase for a N GA major ZR. I wouldn't be surprised if that extended over to your area of SC. So, I think we need to be wary about a major ZR possibility this winter. You're a little early this year. For at least the Atlanta area, the ENSO phase with the highest frequency of major ZR's has been neutral negative (NN), where ENSO is currently, by a wide margin. The frequency of NN winters with a major ZR is ~42%. Compare this 42% to only 19% for all winters, combined, getting at least one major ZR. The 2nd highest frequency for any one ENSO phase is only ~25% (neutral positive and weak El Nino). Looking at major ZR's vs. major S/IP for KATL during NN, there have been about 11 major ZR's vs. only 4 major S/IP's. Keep in mind that there have actually been slightly more major S/IP's than major ZR's for all winters, combined: 35 vs. 29. Regarding the warm Dec. analogs for ATL, there were two major ZR's during the subsequent late January. These were both during NN ENSO fwiw. There were four major S/IP's though three of them were during El Nino. One was during neutral positive ENSO. None were during NN. The 10 day period with the most major ZR's at Atlanta for all winters has been 1/21-30. All of these stats tell me that a major ZR at Atlanta and in much of N GA between now and early Feb. wouldn't be a total surprise. Nevertheless, the current models aren't showing one though some runs have had something close. Therefore, I am not predicting one at this time. Until the models do show something, if ever, there's no reason to expect one and I'll assume the chances to be low. However, if they should at some point happen to move toward a major ZR scenario, I'd then start paying very close attention especially considering the above mentioned climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Surprised no one mentioned the Euro. The LR doesn't look too bad and at the very end of the run it's close to popping something big for NC and parts of GA. Granted it's the end of the run and only one run but it and the CMC do not look far off. The GFS on the other hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 In the LR past day 13/14 the GFS has been constant at indicating a warm pattern for the eastern US. I know this is a model time period that is ussually laughed at but it has not wavered on this idea for the last couple of days. Even the indices could provide some support to this where the NAO is showing a positive signiture and the AO could go any way. The PNA looks to stay positive giving us a little hope. Maybe it's wrong like the many times it shows cold but as we get closer it loses it. What do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 It's 21 currently and heavy clouds. Don't think it will make it to 46 as forecast, but we will see. Could make it a little interesting for tonight's forecasted showers!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Do not let Brick see the 0Z GFS day 10+. Repeating, do not let Brick see the 0Z GFS day 10+. This is not for the faint of heart. Hopefully, he's already in bed! Surprised no one mentioned the Euro. The LR doesn't look too bad and at the very end of the run it's close to popping something big for NC and parts of GA. Granted it's the end of the run and only one run but it and the CMC do not look far off. The GFS on the other hand The GFS is probably right. The Euro has been the only model this winter showing anything possible in the long range, only to cave to the GFS. I think the GFS did show a fantasy storm once in early December, but most of the time it has been the Euro. I've started making peace with the fact that I am not going to see snow again this winter. I just wish it would stay warm and dry if we're not going to have snow. I am tired of it either being rainy or cold. At least have some nice weather for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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