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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II


buckeyefan1

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It seems like last year we had tons of northern stream energy coming through the base of the eastern trough, but it would just never dig enough to do the Carolinas any good. Always went north and west. Without something to suppress the storm track and a southern stream I just can't get too optimistic. I dont remember though how the pna was last year. Maybe it'll be enough. ....

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The index outlooks remain pretty much the same this morning, and you can clearly see it on the guidance.  The PNA is likely going to go substantially positive, the NAO looks to be slightly in the no-help negative phase in the near term, migrating to postive later on, and the AO, after briefly going positive is shown to head south again.  So with the Atlantic on vacation, we are at the mercy of the Pacific.  The thing that is a little more encouraging, if the upcoming pattern after the warm-up is real, is that we're moving into our climo coldest period, the PNA ridge is looking better than it has so far, and we still have a lot of cold air on our side of the globe to be tapped.

 

Without help from the Atlantic, we will still have to thread the needle, so to speak, but if the above factors are correct, then perhaps the needle's eye will be slightly larger.

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It seems like last year we had tons of northern stream energy coming through the base of the eastern trough, but it would just never dig enough to do the Carolinas any good. Always went north and west. Without something to suppress the storm track and a southern stream I just can't get too optimistic. I dont remember though how the pna was last year. Maybe it'll be enough. ....

 

One of the most important factors to me last year was that for most of the winter, all of the cold air in the NH was not on our side of the globe -- a stark difference from this year.  I agree with you about energy cutting north and west.  The location of the cold air doesn't really matter if that happens.  But with a well-placed PNA ridge of adequate height, we can get a strong vort to pass south.

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There's no indication in the teleconnections or stratospheric pattern that indicates that we'll be in a snowy pattern any time soon, if at all.

We live in the SE. When can we ever say with confidence that we will be in a snowy pattern? There are ingredients present this year that many SE winters never have.

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You're taking things much too seriously. 

I'm really not. Sorry if my words read as if I am. It just cracks me up that some folks are doom and gloom negative about our winter weather in the SE. As if we are supposed to get snow repeatedly and the weather (and life) is terrible if we don't. It just cracks me up. Sometimes,

I feel compelled to respond.

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I'm really not. Sorry if my words read as if I am. It just cracks me up that some folks are doom and gloom negative about our winter weather in the SE. As if we are supposed to get snow repeatedly and the weather (and life) is terrible if we don't. It just cracks me up. Sometimes,

I feel compelled to respond.

 

Wasting your time in convincing Widre to see the "silver lining" as it were. He has no expectations for winter weather and doesn't get excited until snow is on the ground and falling from the sky.

 

I have enjoyed the cold snap and the look of the upcoming pattern. I also enjoy discussing the possibilities along with that. Widre will play Devil's advocate and be correct 98 out of 100 times. He has history and latitude on his side.

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I'm really not. Sorry if my words read as if I am. It just cracks me up that some folks are doom and gloom negative about our winter weather in the SE. As if we are supposed to get snow repeatedly and the weather (and life) is terrible if we don't. It just cracks me up. Sometimes,

I feel compelled to respond.

SE doom and gloom was invented by Widremann... ;)

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Wasting your time in convincing Widre to see the "silver lining" as it were. He has no expectations for winter weather and doesn't get excited until snow is on the ground and falling from the sky.

 

I have enjoyed the cold snap and the look of the upcoming pattern. I also enjoy discussing the possibilities along with that. Widre will play Devil's advocate and be correct 98 out of 100 times. He has history and latitude on his side.

Lol. True.

 

I don't know its something else on the grand scheme of things. Im roughly 45mins to an hour from S Durham Chapel Hill and 1.5 hr from Raleigh. Over the years while my area and the triad area does well more than likely whatever the event is by the time it gets to that area its either too warm or falls apart to only redevelop in the coastal plain. RDU area is generally cursed lands.

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The index outlooks remain pretty much the same this morning, and you can clearly see it on the guidance.  The PNA is likely going to go substantially positive, the NAO looks to be slightly in the no-help negative phase in the near term, migrating to postive later on, and the AO, after briefly going positive is shown to head south again.  So with the Atlantic on vacation, we are at the mercy of the Pacific.  The thing that is a little more encouraging, if the upcoming pattern after the warm-up is real, is that we're moving into our climo coldest period, the PNA ridge is looking better than it has so far, and we still have a lot of cold air on our side of the globe to be tapped.

 

Without help from the Atlantic, we will still have to thread the needle, so to speak, but if the above factors are correct, then perhaps the needle's eye will be slightly larger.

I actually think they look better today. Just looking out to day 7 to 10:

PNA will be positive

NAO will be negative

AO will be negative

Exactly where we want them. Anything after this time period will change for the better or worse; but we do know it will change.

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Lol. True.

 

I don't know its something else on the grand scheme of things. Im roughly 45mins to an hour from S Durham Chapel Hill and 1.5 hr from Raleigh. Over the years while my area and the triad area does well more than likely whatever the event is by the time it gets to that area its either too warm or falls apart to only redevelop in the coastal plain. RDU area is generally cursed lands.

I agree, Roxboro does fall within the Greensboro "zone". There seems to be zones that run SW to NE through the state. The zones are not always configured the same (can be North over South or West over East) but they're ussually present for most winter events.

RDU ussually falls between(boarders on) systems that efect the west and sytems that effect the east. If there is a strong CAD we can get significant winter weather, but a weak CAD will ussually only help your area. This year we've had week CADs. Eastern storms are great for the coastal plane but can miss RDU. But sometimes we can be the sweet spot (like in 2000).  

 

The Christmas storm really looked like a two part system that was first west based and then redeveloped as a eastern storm. Looking at the accumilations there was a drop off over portions of central NC between heaver amounts over the west and east.    

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The index outlooks remain pretty much the same this morning, and you can clearly see it on the guidance.  The PNA is likely going to go substantially positive, the NAO looks to be slightly in the no-help negative phase in the near term, migrating to postive later on, and the AO, after briefly going positive is shown to head south again.  So with the Atlantic on vacation, we are at the mercy of the Pacific.  The thing that is a little more encouraging, if the upcoming pattern after the warm-up is real, is that we're moving into our climo coldest period, the PNA ridge is looking better than it has so far, and we still have a lot of cold air on our side of the globe to be tapped.

 

Without help from the Atlantic, we will still have to thread the needle, so to speak, but if the above factors are correct, then perhaps the needle's eye will be slightly larger.

Agree on all points...good post.  At a minimum, it's a pattern that the ski hills will like

 

We live in the SE. When can we ever say with confidence that we will be in a snowy pattern? There are ingredients present this year that many SE winters never have.

Folks just want to see a good pattern setup (they do exist)...and roll the dice.  It's understood that a good pattern may not, and often times does not, produce

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Looks like the southern foothills and the upstate of SC are in for a ton of rain this weekend.  GFS is spitting out over 3 inches for some areas.  I hope it's way overdone!

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_087_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

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Agree on all points...good post.  At a minimum, it's a pattern that the ski hills will like

 

Folks just want to see a good pattern setup (they do exist)...and roll the dice.  It's understood that a good pattern may not, and often times does not, produce

 

Agreed, good patterns for us do exist, and it does snow in this area, there is a reason the piedmont/central NC 30 year snowfall averages is 7-10".  And its not because of January 2000, it's because it's more normal for us to see snow than it's not to see snow, although the 90's and the past 10 years is starting to sway peoples thought process.  Things will get back to the point where we see snow more consistently, maybe not this year but soon.

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240 hour 500mb prog from today's GFS. If we can't score with something like this then I give up. Of course, a -NAO might help. Either way it looks like the chances of another arctic outbreak are better than average.

gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

unfortunately we wont score with that. Everything is too far east.
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Looks like the southern foothills and the upstate of SC are in for a ton of rain this weekend.  GFS is spitting out over 3 inches for some areas.  I hope it's way overdone!

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_087_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

Would be great to have tis with the cold at the same time.

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 Perhaps I'm wrong, but I don't think the western ridge is too far east and the lobe coming around the PV seems to be in a favorable position. But alas, we're talking 10 days away anyway.

I think the pattern (shown) would be more favorable to a clipper type system. We always have our issues with these types of systems but we can cash in sometimes.  

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Perhaps I'm wrong, but I don't think the western ridge is too far east and the lobe coming around the PV seems to be in a favorable position. But alas, we're talking 10 days away anyway.

your right about the ridge, I would prefer it to be a little farther west. I would also like to see it taller and sharper. The energy coming down is too far east I would like to see that coming down in Montana.
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It doesn't look like the models understand that a torch is underway, and all of Jan is lost, and we'll probably have to wait until Feb late to see cold weather.  Meanwhile, in sensible weather...that you can look out the window and see...the roller coaster continues.  And more rain coming.  All I want is a wetter than normal winter, and I'll take my chance that some cold air will find it.  So far not....but the chances continue, and the misses aren't by much.  T

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I think it's easy sometimes to get too caught up in specific things like where exactly the ridge axis is.  It's true that you don't want it off the west coast or over the Great Lakes.  But there is an acceptable range of where the ridge can be.  If the flow is very progressive, it can be a little farther west.  If it's blocked up, it can be farther east.  You also have to take into account the orientation and amplitude of the ridge as well as the strength of the vort diving in.  All of those things matter.  You can't just take a snapshot and say, "if the ridge was farther east, we'd be in business" or whatever, without taking into account the other factors.

 

In the example above, it initially looks promising.  But 24 hours after that image, you get a flattening riding, being bombarded by additional shortwave energy, and a progressive pattern.  The low pops over the Lakes and a strong High builds in and dives into the SE virtually assuring another temporary cold and dry pattern (see below).

 

If there was blocking, if there was less energy in the flow, if the vort was stronger, if the ridge was taller/sharper, if if if if if, then the ridge placement in the image in Poiman's post could, in fact, be ideal.  Who knows...most likely, 10 days from now, things will look a lot different anyway.

 

I'm more interested in the 180 time frame at this point.  It will probably turn out to be garbage, but it's worth watching IMO.

 

 

 

 

 

 

post-987-0-27766000-1389205001_thumb.gif

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Surface and 850mb temperature anomalies on the 12z GFS Ensemble are essentially below normal in the SE for days 8-16 with the +PNA pattern.  Details of the western ridge sharpness / placement, and associated vort max tracks will dictate storm chances. 

 

Seeing the cold anomalies build over AK doesn't give me the warm fuzzies though, I am trying not to look at that.  Lets hope that doesn't setup shop, with a +NAO and neutral AO if the ridging in the west get's beat down it could be game over, so far it seems all the models are holding onto that ridging though.  Or am I being paranoid and you not worried about the AK vortex setting up shop?

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