GaWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Don't look now but the 18Z GFS says there will be only four above normal days anytime soon: 1/10-12 and 1/14. Also intense cold is already back with below normal 1/15-18 and 1/20-1! The warmup is looking more and more feeble while the cold is looking stronger and is coming back earlier than modeled previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Don't look now but the 18Z GFS says there will be only four above normal days anytime soon: 1/10-12 and 1/14. Also intense cold is already back with below normal 1/15-18 and 1/20-1! The warmup is looking more and more feeble while the cold is looking stronger and is coming back earlier than modeled previously. Just saw that, it looks like the euro and gfs as of now bring the PV and cold back around the 15th-20th time frame. Euro has a low also effecting the south... something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Not a big fan of him, but Glenn burns' "exclusive model" has been showing cold around 15-20 for a while lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Lol just now via twitter"@GlennBurnsWSB: @SteveUdelson Hey Steve, our super secret long-range models show the next arctic surge between the 17th and 20th." Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Just read on rxsouth facebook about January 6th-8th 1988 snow across S & SE. That got me to thinking of January 6th-7th 1996 snow as well. That storm in1996 was the ddepest snowstorm i've ever saw. We received 18 in from that 2 day storm. Would enjoy another one like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Today's runs of GFS ens mean is looking decent for the LR. Definitely colder than normal with a trough on the east days 7-16 so hopefully this is sniffing out a longer and less transient cold shot with some opportunities to come. We look to get a pretty good +PNA to end the month. The AO could go pretty negative, there's a good amount of spread but if you get rid of that one positive member after Jan 16th it looks like it's going nowhere but negative. NAO is still out to lunch as expected, but if we can get all 3 of these to end January into Feb we'll be sitting nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 They are forecasting mid 70s here in Columbia by this weekend. It just can't go more than a week here without a day or days being 15-20 degrees above average. I hope some of these models are right about the possible blocking ten days out. Mid 70s, yuk, at most ATL will be is 58 which is still too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Lol just now via twitter"@GlennBurnsWSB: @SteveUdelson Hey Steve, our super secret long-range models show the next arctic surge between the 17th and 20th." Lol Will Athens GA # 1 TV Met go 2 for 2? Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 8, 2014 Author Share Posted January 8, 2014 They are forecasting mid 70s here in Columbia by this weekend. It just can't go more than a week here without a day or days being 15-20 degrees above average. I hope some of these models are right about the possible blocking ten days out. They as in who? CAE's highest temp forecasted has only been in the upper 60's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 12z ens mean has the PV in Hudson bay and the 12z ens control has the PV drop to the lakes. Given how the euro eps mean handled the last outbreak with the location of the PV slightly north of Hudson bay, it looks good. It and the CMC hint at a possible good timing scenario as well with some weak energy coming in just around when the cold air makes. Usually never does anything for us but might be worth watching. Looks like a much better setup for a storm than the previous cold shot. there's some hints of a 50/50 low developing which hasn't happened pretty much all winter. that's pretty much a must for us to get a decent chance for a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 On a side note, i'm thinking about resurrecting the blog since it looks like this winter will be more interesting than the previous two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 They as in who? CAE's highest temp forecasted has only been in the upper 60'sTWC has Columbia with a high of 74 and Waycross at 80. Those are probably record highs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 On a side note, i'm thinking about resurrecting the blog since it looks like this winter will be more interesting than the previous two. Do it, I enjoyed reading your blog! Especially if you're talking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 8, 2014 Author Share Posted January 8, 2014 TWC has Columbia with a high of 74 and Waycross at 80. Those are probably record highs lol. Wow...lol...twc.....smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 On a side note, i'm thinking about resurrecting the blog since it looks like this winter will be more interesting than the previous two. Do it. It'll be nice to read some free thoughts for a change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 On a side note, i'm thinking about resurrecting the blog since it looks like this winter will be more interesting than the previous two. Double-Dog dare ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 On a side note, i'm thinking about resurrecting the blog since it looks like this winter will be more interesting than the previous two.Seriously? Aside from the cold, which is interesting for about five minutes, this has been the lamest NC winter since 11/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Don't look now but per 0Z Wed GFS: snow 1/19-20 parts of SE US from Miller A colliding with Arctic air dropping down....***fwiw , which is only entertainment***. Please stay tuned to this BB for more details as they become available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Don't look now but per 0Z Wed GFS: snow 1/19-20 parts of SE US from Miller A colliding with Arctic air dropping down....***fwiw , which is only entertainment***. Please stay tuned to this BB for more details as they become available. The pattern looks to be headed in the direction of a favorable setup for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Seriously? Aside from the cold, which is interesting for about five minutes, this has been the lamest NC winter since 11/12. I was talking about the future. I agree so far it hasn't been anything other than up/down cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Don't look now but per 0Z Wed GFS: snow 1/19-20 parts of SE US from Miller A colliding with Arctic air dropping down....***fwiw , which is only entertainment***. Please stay tuned to this BB for more details as they become available. It's like something from a stray GEFS member, beautiful! I'll take hour 288 and extrapolate forward in my dream world thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 February will be rockin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Don't look now but per 0Z Wed GFS: snow 1/19-20 parts of SE US from Miller A colliding with Arctic air dropping down....***fwiw , which is only entertainment***. Please stay tuned to this BB for more details as they become available. Goofy looked like a fun ride at 18z, and then made it better on the 0z. I like seeing those highs coming down one right after the other, with the gulf active. Get a string like that and we might get them to meet! I wish that little cut off for Mon would come back, after the cold comes back, lol. I liked that storm. Bowling ball city. Meanwhile the cad is coming and likely to be cold. Will the Atlantic help SC to some fun? Or Lookout? It could happen T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Don't look now but per 0Z Wed GFS: snow 1/19-20 parts of SE US from Miller A colliding with Arctic air dropping down....***fwiw , which is only entertainment***. Please stay tuned to this BB for more details as they become available. For entertainment only, the 240 hour 0Z Wed. Euro map shows a brutally cold polar vortex (850's as cold as ~-40 C) centered in far NE Manitoba plunging SSEward toward MN. Fwiw. This is somewhat in synch with the timing of the 0Z GFS although this is colder and aiming further west toward the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 February will be rockin... Fab Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Euro ensembles look good past this brief warm-up. Still no west based nao or southern stream. Control run goes crazy. Either way looks to be colder than normal with a positive pna. Would be nice to get the ridge in the right spot and not too far east giving Boston another storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Seriously? Aside from the cold, which is interesting for about five minutes, this has been the lamest NC winter since 11/12. So, regardless of the fact that most have had their coldest weather since 1996 or before, and because the LR looks very encouraging, HKY should abandon the idea of a blog because you are not happy with this winter. Not snowing IYBY everyday so everything sucks. Nobody should base a decision on you being happy because it appears that you are never happy. To some people this is a weather forum. To others, this is an "I want snow or I am going to be miserable, negative, and an overall pain in the butt" forum. The LR does look very encouraging and I for one would love to read HKYs insights on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Euro ensembles look good past this brief warm-up. Still no west based nao or southern stream. Control run goes crazy. Either way looks to be colder than normal with a positive pna. Would be nice to get the ridge in the right spot and not too far east giving Boston another storm. Either way with that really positive PNA energy has to come through at sometime (well hopefully). If nothing else we could get some juiced up clippers like many of the models are showing. Not so good for my backyard but good for yours. I think it does look good but I'm going to reserve judgement until we get around a week to 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 So, regardless of the fact that most have had their coldest weather since 1996 or before, and because the LR looks very encouraging, HKY should abandon the idea of a blog because you are not happy with this winter. Not snowing IYBY everyday so everything sucks. Nobody should base a decision on you being happy because it appears that you are never happy. To some people this is a weather forum. To others, this is an "I want snow or I am going to be miserable, negative, and an overall pain in the butt" forum. The LR does look very encouraging and I for one would love to read HKYs insights on a regular basis. You're taking things much too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 So, regardless of the fact that most have had their coldest weather since 1996 or before, and because the LR looks very encouraging, HKY should abandon the idea of a blog because you are not happy with this winter. Not snowing IYBY everyday so everything sucks. Nobody should base a decision on you being happy because it appears that you are never happy. To some people this is a weather forum. To others, this is an "I want snow or I am going to be miserable, negative, and an overall pain in the butt" forum. The LR does look very encouraging and I for one would love to read HKYs insights on a regular basis. There's no indication in the teleconnections or stratospheric pattern that indicates that we'll be in a snowy pattern any time soon, if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.