deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Do you think there is enough moisture there? Seems like with the dry air already in place it would be a lot of virga....but what would fall you would def. think could freeze to surfaces given how cold it will have been. I agree with you, it will probably be too dry for any of that to reach the ground.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I agree with you, it will probably be too dry for any of that to reach the ground.... Soundings of even the NAM showed a very dry deal going on. A lot of it wasn't reaching the ground in many area if soundings are to be believed until the warm up. Some areas seemed like they would wet bulb down though. It's just an early morning timing thing and how much moisture can get going before the CAD erodes. Come tomorrow, these models might now show any moisture until well later in the morning or later.. even for us down in GA/SC like the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 00z NAM has shown QPF now on Thur am. its VERY light, but a little glaze would be very bad.....interesting to see if this increases or what... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 00z NAM has shown QPF now on Thur am. its VERY light, but a little glaze would be very bad.....interesting to see if this increases or what... I still don't see enough moisture coming in soon enough here, but I do know in this flow the models have done a terrible job detecting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Agreed, my guess is that there still won't be enough for anything to really happen, but I am pretty sure the models are overdone for temps with that airmass leaving. The high is NOT moving out E...Its moving out NE which leaves some CAD in there. NAM and EURO have a pretty chilly day on Thur around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 Agreed, my guess is that there still won't be enough for anything to really happen, but I am pretty sure the models are overdone for temps with that airmass leaving. The high is NOT moving out E...Its moving out NE which leaves some CAD in there. NAM and EURO have a pretty chilly day on Thur around here. The NAM and EURO have mby quite chilly too holding the CAD in place, with temps holding around 30-31 degrees. It wouldn't take much to glaze everything up either...it's definitely worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 even frz drizzle would play havoc on driving i after this arctic outbreak i would think. it should start freezing immediately on everything. couple of Dec. ago we had a couple of hours of frz drizzle with temps in the 20s (and no cold like now) and there were cars off the road all over the place, including the police and fire engines lol. had to be maybe .05 - the scanner was wild to listen to that night. hopefully we can get the qpf up enough to give us something. it would be a darn shame to waste all this cold air lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 The NAM and EURO have mby quite chilly too holding the CAD in place, with temps holding around 30-31 degrees. It wouldn't take much to glaze everything up either...it's definitely worth watching A big thing is to see if the NAM starts to trend up on the precip or down. The GFS is wishy washy about it, and pretty much not a big fan. Yes, it has had it in our back yard close to CAE on 06z along with 12z but those are trace amounts. The 18z GFS dropped it afterward with like 1 or 2 members saying maybe. And that maybe from the GFS is basically nothing to make anything worth note. Now on the other hand, we have the GGEM (yes, over cold biased crap model for the SE for Winter Weather) that has been a bit stronger with the precip here in the KCAE region up to parts of NC. The 12z & 18z NAM showed 0.02 inches of -FZRA.. basically drizzle.. but.. if that starts to go up or the SREF begins to show it soon, it'll be foretelling of where the GFS should go for our area at least. Either way, this doesn't look to be a huge event, but even if 0.10 of an inch falls and freezes right before a work day, it's never good around here with absolutely no protection on the bridges etc. EDIT: Looking over the 00z NAM for KCAE is too warm. Nothing frozen at all. So everything I just said is pointless. But yeah. Maybe for some others around us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 It's a shame to have all this cold air in place no moisture in 3000 miles of here. But it's always dry with this kind of cold. But 40's/50's and rain Thursday/Friday is a slap in the snow lovers face. lol IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 00z GFS is pretty dead on moisture for Thursday morning. Sorry for bringing it up guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Have to see what shows up on tomorrows 0z. Something tells me this will surprise, yet I'm not so cold tonight, so maybe this high didn't come in to Ga. as far as it first looked. Could be the deepest cold won't be in the cad. I'm still 7 or 8 degrees warmer than reports in Atl. as of now, nearly 2. It looked to me like atlantic moisture could give you some drizzle, if nothing else. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 GFS Ensembles overnight and this morning continue to push for +PNA/-NAO combo from 10 days on through the run. Hope it's right. 6Z really pushes it. REALLY looks great to my untrained eye. Blocking all up in greenland. Nice TALL ridge on the west coast. The PNA is showing up well on the indices so I'm pretty confident about it, but the NAO is not showing up anywhere else yet I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 GFS Ensembles overnight and this morning continue to push for +PNA/-NAO combo from 10 days on through the run. Hope it's right. 6Z really pushes it. REALLY looks great to my untrained eye. Blocking all up in greenland. Nice TALL ridge on the west coast. The PNA is showing up well on the indices so I'm pretty confident about it, but the NAO is not showing up anywhere else yet I don't think. That looks good. The CPC NAO outlook shows it remaining positive. The PNA looks to go nicely positive and the AO looks to rise into positive territory and head quickly negative again. That's good. The OP GFS looks ok around day 10 but quickly craps out and goes zonal. Hopefully, the Ens will lead the way here. I haven't read about the Euro Ens yet. The Op Euro starts to look ok around 192 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 They are forecasting mid 70s here in Columbia by this weekend. It just can't go more than a week here without a day or days being 15-20 degrees above average. I hope some of these models are right about the possible blocking ten days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 That looks good. The CPC NAO outlook shows it remaining positive. The PNA looks to go nicely positive and the AO looks to rise into positive territory and head quickly negative again. That's good. The OP GFS looks ok around day 10 but quickly craps out and goes zonal. Hopefully, the Ens will lead the way here. I haven't read about the Euro Ens yet. The Op Euro starts to look ok around 192 hrs. Your right, the NAO looks to go negative in the short term but then trnd back positive in the LR. But the PNA and AO look great in the LR. So what type of pattern(on average)) do you get with a +NAO, +PNA, and -AO? **Hopefully not a lot of great lake cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Your right, the NAO looks to go negative in the short term but then trnd back positive in the LR. But the PNA and AO look great in the LR. So what type of pattern(on average)) do you get with a +NAO, +PNA, and -AO? **Hopefully not a lot of great lake cutters. In general a +NAO +PNA and -AO should still give us shots but of course more of a timing issue. Last year I believe we had a major -AO to start the winter but couldn't get the +PNA in place. I believe Robert had a good post about this last winter about how a +NAO isn't much of a factor if you can get a good +PNA and -AO and many of the huge blizzards and snow storms of the past shared the fact that it was a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Anybody care to comment on the 12z NAM. HP seems to hold in a bit longer with precip totals up to .50 in the coastal plain of NC. Tapers as you go west, but still .10-.25 back to the western piedmont. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Anybody care to comment on the 12z NAM. HP seems to hold in a bit longer with precip totals up to .50 in the coastal plain of NC. Tapers as you go west, but still .10-.25 back to the western piedmont. TW Temps look marginal at best. This probably ends up being another cold rain for most if not all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Anybody care to comment on the 12z NAM. HP seems to hold in a bit longer with precip totals up to .50 in the coastal plain of NC. Tapers as you go west, but still .10-.25 back to the western piedmont. TW With DPs as low as they are you would have to think the biggest part of that would be virga! But I would also think that a lot of evaporational cooling would take place and drop the temps, and with the ground already froze any light precip would freeze on contact! JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 12z Nam drops about .10 QPF with temps around 31 here. With recent cold, that could create some tricky travel early Thursday morning in the favored CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 GFS Ensembles overnight and this morning continue to push for +PNA/-NAO combo from 10 days on through the run. Hope it's right. 6Z really pushes it. REALLY looks great to my untrained eye. Blocking all up in greenland. Nice TALL ridge on the west coast. The PNA is showing up well on the indices so I'm pretty confident about it, but the NAO is not showing up anywhere else yet I don't think. The most interesting thing I see with the ensembles is the rather stable looking Aleutian Low feature. That would act to anchor in the +PNA pattern. Comparing the Euro and GFS Ensembles trends, it looks like the Euro has been trending toward the GFS with the Pacific pattern (GFS Ens taking the lead). For the NAO, on the map above you do have the ridging in the Atlantic, but it's still more of a neutral NAO...the flow would still be rather fast between the E Hudson bay low / vortex and the ridge off Newfoundland. No true southern stream of significance, but after this warm-up, the pattern does look improved and should become more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 12 GFS does not look bad. The big thaw looks to run between days 4 and 7 and then we get back into a below normal (temp) pattern. There are even a few potential events showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Assuming a high of 23 today, the first 7 days of the month at CLT will have featured an average temperature of 30.49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Not bad, analogs look OK too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I've been running the 12z over and over watching that little closed low get cut off over the weekend, and then the cold air moving down. I've been trying to get them to phase, but it's the same miss every time, lol. I'd sure love to see a little cut off meet up with some cold coming down, and slide in here together. But no matter how many times I play it they won't join up That's a perfect sized little low, though. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 With DPs as low as they are you would have to think the biggest part of that would be virga! But I would also think that a lot of evaporational cooling would take place and drop the temps, and with the ground already froze any light precip would freeze on contact! JMO iirc, the models amounts are in fact counting evaporation and those amounts are what reaches the ground. At least that's what i seem to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Anybody care to comment on the 12z NAM. HP seems to hold in a bit longer with precip totals up to .50 in the coastal plain of NC. Tapers as you go west, but still .10-.25 back to the western piedmont. TW Temps look marginal at best. This probably ends up being another cold rain for most if not all of us. Honestly given the flow aloft> sw return flow if the HP could hold longer probably in theory could see evaporative cooling. Stronger CAD. But if it holds a little could probably see some of this start as snow before switching to freezing rain in the favored areas before everybody warms in SE. It does warm 850 temps but as soon as moisture comes in it cools some before warming again. Notice the 0c thermal line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 euro has a nasty cold shot heading south in canada at day 10. will be interested to see the ensembles when they come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 euro has a nasty cold shot heading south in canada at day 10. will be interested to see the ensembles when they come out. It and the CMC hint at a possible good timing scenario as well with some weak energy coming in just around when the cold air makes. Usually never does anything for us but might be worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 euro has a nasty cold shot heading south in canada at day 10. will be interested to see the ensembles when they come out. 12z ens mean has the PV in Hudson bay and the 12z ens control has the PV drop to the lakes. Given how the euro eps mean handled the last outbreak with the location of the PV slightly north of Hudson bay, it looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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