WeatherNC Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Odds are way down, UK, GFS, GGEM and Euro all are somewhat close to each other. Once these storms are modeled north of you 5 days they never come back south. Good news is the models are showing ridging developing in the east and trough in west after next week, It could be Feb before we can sniff a pattern out that would suit us. I really thought we would see flakes next week, hopefully we will later on. Agree, best guess, and this is based on an almost unanimous consensus of the 12z global op suite, Miller B type, never really gets its act together till just before the BM, with the dominant player being northern stream energy that enters CONUS near Glacier National Park +84hrs. Based on past experiences, this is usually a good entrance point for northern stream parcels and SN around these here parts with a couple caveats; strong PNA ridge or southern energy that gets ejected out of the SW and hook up along the Gulf coast which usually still requires the PNA index to be in positive territory. I will reserve judgment until the EC Ens comes out, as there was some variability in the GFS ens, imagine the Canadian/Euro will show the same too. The frontal boundary along the Gulf just dies after day 4, a result of the energy ejecting out early with no mechanism to amplify a surface wave should one form. Northern stream crashed down late, result is a weak surface reflection forming in the middle MS River Valley, followed by dumpster fire in the Gulf to NC Coast, with the likely handoff taking place over VA, then go for main engine start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 That's probably a top 5 snowstorm for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Agree, as much of a bummer we probably won't be hit, it's still cool to see a huge winter storm hit someone. Boston might be at winter climo for snowfall after this storm and they will have 10 more weeks of winter left. Pretty amazing streak they have been on with the hurricane winter storms, the record setting Feb this past winter, solid Nov/Dec this winter and now this, they can't go wrong, playing the hot hand. High chance you are alone with this. I have little interest or concern over how much snow occurs in Worcester, Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 High chance you are alone with this. I have little interest or concern over how much snow occurs in Worcester, Mass Agreed. They've seen 5 of their top 10 snowstorms in the past 20 years. This'll make 6 if it's a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 honestly being in the bulls eye this far out is usually a mood killer as we approach closer to the storm. (of course NE it doesnt matter they always seem to get snow lol. the joys of living far north). there is still a lot of variability and plenty of time for things to pan out. after two years of nothing my mind is sort of trying to get back into storm/model mode, but seems like the storms pop up and out etc. and many times would disappear on a couple of runs, only to roar back within a few days (christmas a couple of years ago rings a bell). until we have a couple of storms to actual come to be and get a handle on how this year will be on reality v. model runs (ie. the infamous nw shift/trend, warming or cooling temps etc) its going to drive people crazy to follow each run with this much change. if they lock on a bad outcome (as usual lately it seems) then we may be screwed, but otherwise there is plenty of cold air around, even n ga has frozen precip in nov and so far lack of moisture has not been an issue as in many years. last couple of weeks have had over 8.75" of rain. its a matter of timing and we know how hard that is in the SE (and easy in the NE). as long as the models are fluctuating and still showing something of interest in the se i am just waiting to a bit closer to see how runs start matching as we get closer in a couple of days. edited to add (hit post too fast lol) - seems like most se storms show up within about 3-4 days of the event and start locking on, and even then bullseye 4 days out can be a kiss of death lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I highly doubt both models have the hiccups! Really depressing Just crazy how different the Euro was from one run to the next. I guess the one that showed the big snow here was the hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 High chance you are alone with this. I have little interest or concern over how much snow occurs in Worcester, Mass It's been 3 years since I have seen my grass white with snow so I live vicariously through Boston, I text some friends up there to send me pics when it snows, I then hold my phone up to the window and imagine its MBY :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I would guess the Euro ens will show a more suppressed look, but eventually I think we see a slightly further south and weaker solution than the 12z Euro that hits the MA to the NE, a miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Agree, best guess, and this is based on an almost unanimous consensus of the 12z global op suite, Miller B type, never really gets its act together till just before the BM, with the dominant player being northern stream energy that enters CONUS near Glacier National Park +84hrs. Based on past experiences, this is usually a good entrance point for northern stream parcels and SN around these here parts with a couple caveats; strong PNA ridge or southern energy that gets ejected out of the SW and hook up along the Gulf coast which usually still requires the PNA index to be in positive territory. I will reserve judgment until the EC Ens comes out, as there was some variability in the GFS ens, imagine the Canadian/Euro will show the same too. The frontal boundary along the Gulf just dies after day 4, a result of the energy ejecting out early with no mechanism to amplify a surface wave should one form. Northern stream crashed down late, result is a weak surface reflection forming in the middle MS River Valley, followed by dumpster fire in the Gulf to NC Coast, with the likely handoff taking place over VA, then go for main engine start. One thing that might keep folks away from the cliff for now, is the fact that it will change several more times before verification. It may trend in our favor or it may not. Bottom line is not to take the models verbatim at this range. I would not want to be in the bull's eye right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 One thing that might keep folks away from the cliff for now, is the fact that it will change several more times before verification. It may trend in our favor or it may not. Bottom line is not to take the models verbatim at this range. I would not want to be in the bull's eye right now. 0z bullseye was central VA, 12z it's Boston, probably will end up being somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 6 days doesn't seem that far out. If it was then there would be no use in even coming here to discuss things. Euro just went from a big storm a few hours ago to nothing. Such a huge change in a short time. Just shows you how hard it is to get everything right here for snow. No comment. Your third and fourth sentence refutes sentence one and two better than I ever could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Just crazy how different the Euro was from one run to the next. I guess the one that showed the big snow here was the hiccup. Not necessarily. Don't live and die by each medium-range model run. If you do, you will be the "weenie of the year"....Oh wait... Never mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 No comment. Your third and fourth sentence refutes sentence one and two better than I ever could. I get what you are saying. But in reality 6 days outs not that far. In model land, though, it seems like it is an eternity. Just think it is crazy how the Euro changed from one run to the next. Models do great showing plain rain and sunny weather that far out. But when it comes to snow around here they are all over the place even less than a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well that was fun, on to mid January or so...somebody let me know when we get blocking or SOMETHING to keep the storms to our south. Until then, I won't be fooled anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well that was fun, on to mid January or so...somebody let me know when we get blocking or SOMETHING to keep the storms to our south. Until then, I won't be fooled anymore. You folks are beginning to sound like the Mid Atlantic guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Keep in mind that in the predominant pattern this winter, even the NC Mountains are not seeing any snow including no meaningful upslope snow. The best we have had so far is some small dustings. Unless something changes in the major long wave pattern, this is likely to continue for the best part of winter. Disappointing? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Our window for snow is getting shorter and shorter each day. After about Mid February, our chances of snow go down drastically. And of course the sun angle starts becoming a huge factor and you have to pray that it snows at night and not during the middle of the day. Maybe down in West Georgia that's true but not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yeah, tired of hearing how the players on the field are better and look good, and the pattern is good, but have nothing to show for it. A loss is a loss, no matter how good the players are and how good they played. I knew the players on the field haven't really changed that much. What looked good was having the EURO on our side and lots of ensembles showing a suppressed track (plus there was a BIT of a -NAO in the modeling). I bought into the suppressed track. Just gotta remember persistence trumps a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 How far out were the models showing the storm up in the Ohio valley/ NE on the Xmas storm 2010 ? That's the only time I can remember recently of a trend south and or east, but I remember this happening, but don't recall how many days out? Not many if I recall correctly like maybe 48-72ish hrs out did it start to trend south...I remember not thinkng we would see more than a dusting here on Dec 23rd and by the 24th I was posting about getting hammered so it came back late. Odds are Euro just had a hiccup, I guess it could have been the first glimpse of how its gonna trend......after it settles down but if I had a hundred bucks to bet on which of the last two runs is right I know where I would put my money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Anyone care about the pattern or do you think the death ridge is locked in for the LR? At least the 12z GFS and the 00z Euro control runs are showing the opposite, with the 12z GFS ens control with a deep trough over east coast and PV under Hudson bay valid day 10 on the 00z Euro control...stills tries to put a tiny trough under the east coast at that time frame, however with that cold and the blocking on top I don't see it just sitting there...Yesterday's GEFs controls (and previous days for that matter) had a huge death ridge over the east coast valid same time period Jan 10th...A little hope for the weenie to hold on to. I think the 1/03 fantasy storm model mayhem has got a lot of you down, go outside for a bit or something and come back for the 00z runs. Also it was a matter of time with this amount of cold involved before the low went up the coast and epically destroyed NE area....don't act surprised now! We've got some time. When this disappears or isn't so epic with the 00z runs the NE forum will be the ones cliff diving. What happened to the models having problems or still sorting things out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Not many if I recall correctly like maybe 48-72ish hrs out did it start to trend south...I remember not thinkng we would see more than a dusting here on Dec 23rd and by the 24th I was posting about getting hammered so it came back late. Odds are Euro just had a hiccup, I guess it could have been the first glimpse of how its gonna trend......after it settles down but if I had a hundred bucks to bet on which of the last two runs is right I know where I would put my money. It trended north at the 156ish time frame, disappeared in the 96 hour time frame and came back in the 48 hour time frame. I'm pretty sure I am remembering that correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro Ensembles rolling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro Ensembles rolling in. Allan Huffman just said on twitter the ensemble mean shifted north, but still further south than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro Ensembles rolling in. Snowstorm rolling out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Snowstorm rolling out. I am hearing that the ensembles support the Op.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Allan Huffman just said on twitter the ensemble mean shifted north, but still further south than the operational. The 12Z Euro ens. mean is a good bit warmer than the 0Z Euro ens. The 0Z 850 is ~75 miles N/NW of the 0Z run. 850's are 3-4 C warmer in many cases over NC. The Arctic high isn't as strong and isn't providing the good supply of cold that was the case on the 0Z run. Not a good trend at all. Don't forget that the Euro has somewhat of a bias toward too high pressures with Arctic highs as they move from the plains to the NE. Maybe some of this warming is due to the unwinding of the bias as we get closer. Perhaps that is the main reason storm tracks tend to trend north as one gets closer. But there's still time for it to revert back, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I am hearing that the ensembles support the Op.... Yep south of the 12z run, but not a snowstorm for us. I still think the MA/NE will cash in next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Looks like a low over WV and a low over eastern VA or maybe Wallops Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 ^^ Yep. The most important take-away is that they support the pattern. The pattern is not and has not been supportive of suppression. It is and has been supportive of cutters, Miller Bs, less penetrating cold, and moist systems. It is not and has not been supportive of strong highs remaining locked over the northern tier. It is not and has not been supportive of eastern Gulf and SE coastal cyclogenesis. It is not and has not been supportive of a snowstorm. We can still get perfect timing. This system can still work out. But the pattern doesn't support it. I don't care if the ensembles support the OPs or not. Do they support the pattern? That's the question. When they do, like they seem to be doing now, then that's a reliable signal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 He said he was over 70 but I don't know where he lived then. Others: in 83, the heaviest snow since 1940 at the airport occurred on 3/24 during the daytime (8" at the airport!!). Also, 3/14/1924 and 3/11/1960 were major. It snowed and stuck on 4/25/1920, too! That's what I'm saying...snow is spring stuff...if you want it deep And speaking of snow, while everyone lives and dies on models talking about something a ways away, I'm looking at Monday night. I've got a low of 28 and a 30% chance of rain, so I'm looking at that and not worrying about the other. It's gotten better and better for Mon night, and now all it takes is for the 30% to meet that 28 and it's a nice surprise snow. Meanwhile I've got a good strong cad going on and I'm at 40 when I'm supposed to be at 45. I'm not so far off of something now, if that damn low would be in Fla. where it's supposed to be Too much looking ahead going on, and not looking under ones nose for possibles and patterns. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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