Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

[Cold Rain]

Yep I'll take more of that look please.

And the rest of the run goes to crap after that. The last few runs kept the ridge on the west coast. This one basically goes zonal.

[burgertime]

And the rest of the run goes to crap after that. The last few runs kept the ridge on the west coast. This one basically goes zonal.

 

In this pattern beggers can't be choosy! 

[Cold Rain]

In this pattern beggers can't be choosy!

Yeah. And it's way out there, so we'd need some consistency on a zonal flow look before becoming too concerned anyway. We'll have to see how the ensembles look.

[Cold Rain]

Does the 12z Canadian look icy to anyone at 84/90/96?

[burgertime]

Does the 12z Canadian look icy to anyone at 84/90/96?

 

I'm only out to 78. Looks like it was really close at 75 then it warms up. 

[burgertime]

Does the 12z Canadian look icy to anyone at 84/90/96?

 

Out to 93 now. Verbatim it's ice for anyone along I-40. Given the extreme cold before even at 32 it would have a good chance to freeze on surfaces. 

[Cold Rain]

 

Out to 93 now. Verbatim it's ice for anyone along I-40. Given the extreme cold before even at 32 it would have a good chance to freeze on surfaces.

 

Yeah, it looks like the high holds in place a little better and brings in a little more precip. Euro looks close for some areas, but I can't tell about any precip.

[Cold Rain]

 

And the rest of the run goes to crap after that. The last few runs kept the ridge on the west coast. This one basically goes zonal.

 

Looking at the 12z Ens members on eWall, it looks like they generally show more troughing in the east than the OP. There are some pretty interesting looks showing up.

[MichaelJ]

On Weatherbell, the CFSV2 snowfall maps show snow on the ground in the Carolinas from the last week of January until the last week of February on all four panel depictions which is very rare in my recollection. This goes along with what Bastardi and D'Aleo have predicted would be a late winter change of the NAO from a + one to a - one in those months, due to the combination of a West based QBO, Solar Max, and tripole in the Atlantic. Will they end up being correct? Who knows, but the NAO actually did shift late last winter to a negative manner but too late for us to do any good except lock in a cool Spring. Will it be too late again this winter, time will tell?

[jburns]

On Weatherbell, the CFSV2 snowfall maps show snow on the ground in the Carolinas from the last week of January until the last week of February on all four panel depictions which is very rare in my recollection. This goes along with what Bastardi and D'Aleo have predicted would be a late winter change of the NAO from a + one to a - one in those months, due to the combination of a West based QBO, Solar Max, and tripole in the Atlantic. Will they end up being correct? Who knows, but the NAO actually did shift late last winter to a negative manner but too late for us to do any good except lock in a cool Spring. Will it be too late again this winter, time will tell?

 

If we have 4 straight weeks of snow cover, on the following Saturday, I will dance naked in the town square at high noon.

[Amos83]

If we have 4 straight weeks of snow cover, on the following Saturday, I will dance naked in the town square at high noon.

 

for once that is a sight I hope to see

[SnowNiner]

On Weatherbell, the CFSV2 snowfall maps show snow on the ground in the Carolinas from the last week of January until the last week of February on all four panel depictions which is very rare in my recollection. This goes along with what Bastardi and D'Aleo have predicted would be a late winter change of the NAO from a + one to a - one in those months, due to the combination of a West based QBO, Solar Max, and tripole in the Atlantic. Will they end up being correct? Who knows, but the NAO actually did shift late last winter to a negative manner but too late for us to do any good except lock in a cool Spring. Will it be too late again this winter, time will tell?

 

Don Sutherland expects a reload of a cold pattern after a 7-10 day relaxation period as well (he sounds pretty confident about it actually; analogs/statistics, etc).  The GEFS looks good with a +PNA and a bit of blocking to go along with it.  Matches up well with his posts.  All that yackety yack from weatherbell sounds good to me too.  I'm feeling relatively good about the last two weeks of January at this point, as much as you probably can feel good about the long range. 

 

If we get a true tall +PNA with a bit of -NAO, THAT will be a true pattern change.  Two weeks from now if we're still seeing +/neutral NAO and a neutral PNA, no dice.  Same old story.  -EPO or no. 

[ASU2014]

On Wednesday night...another surge of Canadian high pressure will
pass across the Great Lakes...and then build southward along the
eastern face of the Appalachians by Thursday morning. Meanwhile...a
trough of low pressure will push east from the plains...lifting Gulf
moisture northward along the appalachian spine. The net result will
be an ideal freezing rain setup for Thursday night across much of
our area as warm moist air aloft overruns the colder air at the
surface. Sticking closer to the European model (ecmwf) model this morning...which has
more realistic overnight lows for Thursday night...namely the upper
20s and lower 30s...compared to the GFS models which is way too
warm. Freezing rain is also supported by the fact that the recent
passage of the Arctic airmass will have ground temperatures still
around freezing in many areas...meaning that icing readily stick to
roadways making travel hazardous through late Friday morning...at
which point temperatures will warm above freezing. 

[Brick Tamland]

On Wednesday night...another surge of Canadian high pressure will

pass across the Great Lakes...and then build southward along the

eastern face of the Appalachians by Thursday morning. Meanwhile...a

trough of low pressure will push east from the plains...lifting Gulf

moisture northward along the appalachian spine. The net result will

be an ideal freezing rain setup for Thursday night across much of

our area as warm moist air aloft overruns the colder air at the

surface. Sticking closer to the European model (ecmwf) model this morning...which has

more realistic overnight lows for Thursday night...namely the upper

20s and lower 30s...compared to the GFS models which is way too

warm. Freezing rain is also supported by the fact that the recent

passage of the Arctic airmass will have ground temperatures still

around freezing in many areas...meaning that icing readily stick to

roadways making travel hazardous through late Friday morning...at

which point temperatures will warm above freezing. 

 

Where is this from?

[ASU2014]

Where is this from?

 

Blacksburg. WPC added 10% chance of freezing rain from central GA to western NC.

[NEGa]

Blacksburg. WPC added 10% chance of freezing rain from central GA to western NC.

i admit i cant blame them (nws) as the models are all over the place, and when the cold air is around moisture seems to be lacking sigh - but the set up for later this week is not all that bad for an icing event.  the cold air is well entrenched and chilling surfaces down, dewpoints very low and even if a brief time i would think any precip making it to the ground would freeze (qpf seems the issue again attm for later in the week)

 

if we could get another cold high to move across and push down some fresh cold air that would be half the battle around here.  now if we could just get a juicier system lol

 

i am not sure if wpc had those maps last year, this is the first i have seen/used them. however so far this winter they have not been too far off for the most part.  the biggest miss was the snow the maps shows for a large part of n and nwest ga.  of course granted it looked impressive, but the percentages for most were maybe 30%.  so all in all not bad

[mackerel_sky]

That's sounds a little more plausible with a fresh air mass . I thought we were relying on this current air mass to give us this threat. It would be way too stale to rely on for zr

[deltadog03]

EURO has a potential icy FZDZ look around here and into NGA with temps near freezing on Thur am...The high looks in prime CAD position and a pretty fresh arctic airmass that is slowly erroding to me sounds like potential fun...Thoughts??

[tarheelwx]

If we have 4 straight weeks of snow cover, on the following Saturday, I will dance naked in the town square at high noon.

BRING ON THE TORCH!!!!!!

TW

[Cold Rain]

Everybody's favorite, the 84 hour NAM looks caddy, but it's got most of the precip over eastern NC. 1036 High over NE, though.

[burgertime]

EURO has a potential icy FZDZ look around here and into NGA with temps near freezing on Thur am...The high looks in prime CAD position and a pretty fresh arctic airmass that is slowly erroding to me sounds like potential fun...Thoughts??

 

Do you think there is enough moisture there? Seems like with the dry air already in place it would be a lot of virga....but what would fall you would def. think could freeze to surfaces given how cold it will have been. 

[NEGa]

EURO has a potential icy FZDZ look around here and into NGA with temps near freezing on Thur am...The high looks in prime CAD position and a pretty fresh arctic airmass that is slowly erroding to me sounds like potential fun...Thoughts??

 

looks like for once we will have the cad, cold air and low dewpoints, question is how much qpf.  our luck after numerous 33 and rain cads we get a cad at 26 with nothing but a raging virga storm lol

 

it seems like this year the euro picks up on something, then it goes away and comes back.  if so, i am hopeful the next few runs will show a trend increasing the precip amounts and keeping the temps cold

 

edited to add:

 

Do you think there is enough moisture there? Seems like with the dry air already in place it would be a lot of virga....but what would fall you would def. think could freeze to surfaces given how cold it will have been. 

 

great minds think alike, i see lol. 

[ncsled]

That CFSV2 snowfall map was a 5 day run not a month.  It was posted on twitter too.  I think 99 percent of the board here would be happy with

5 days of snowcover. I know I would. 

[griteater]

12z Euro Ensemble...looking at 850mb temp anomalies, days 4-8 are above normal, 8-12 are near normal, 12-15 are below normal.  A stable looking Aleutian Low is present from days 8-15, leading to a +PNA pattern of western ridge / eastern trough.  All very similar to 12z GFS Ensemble, except that the GEFS brings the western ridging more inland in W Canada compared to the Euro Ens in the 12-15 day period (more classic +PNA look).  As the +PNA pattern is developing, the NAO goes from neutral to positive with cold vortex continuing in the vicinity of Hudson Bay with relatively fast flow out into the Atlantic.  No southern stream of significance undercutting the western U.S. ridging.

[SnowNiner]

12z Euro Ensemble...looking at 850mb temp anomalies, days 4-8 are above normal, 8-12 are near normal, 12-15 are below normal.  A stable looking Aleutian Low is present from days 8-15, leading to a +PNA pattern of western ridge / eastern trough.  All very similar to 12z GFS Ensemble, except that the GEFS brings the western ridging more inland in W Canada compared to the Euro Ens in the 12-15 day period (more classic +PNA look).  As the +PNA pattern is developing, the NAO goes from neutral to positive with cold vortex continuing in the vicinity of Hudson Bay with relatively fast flow out into the Atlantic.  No southern stream of significance undercutting the western U.S. ridging.

 

Let's root for the GEFS then, as it seems to want to give us some -NAO. 

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Blacksburg. WPC added 10% chance of freezing rain from central GA to western NC.

My forecast is from Blacksburg! I see no mention of freezing rain?

 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY

CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF

RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 30S.

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF

RAIN 60 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE

EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY

CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

 

 

Looks pretty seasonal to me through the extended, after this brief cold spell!  Nothing close to wintry precip??

 

[mackerel_sky]

My forecast is from Blacksburg! I see no mention of freezing rain?

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY

CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF

RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 30S.

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF

RAIN 60 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE

EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY

CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

Looks pretty seasonal to me through the extended, after this brief cold spell! Nothing close to wintry precip??

Yeah, this Thursday zr chance looks pretty bleak, but I think he was talking about their AFD. GSP mentions it in their afternoon package

[BIG FROSTY]

Yeah, this Thursday zr chance looks pretty bleak, but I think he was talking about their AFD. GSP mentions it in their afternoon package

Yeah, I knew it was afternoon discussion! But I thought I would at least have a mention in my forecast?  But they will change their forecast 20 times by Thursday, not saying I expect Freezing Rain but they change every package. if I had snow every time it's been in my forecast this winter I would probably close to average!!! lol

[MichaelJ]

That CFSV2 snowfall map was a 5 day run not a month.  It was posted on twitter too.  I think 99 percent of the board here would be happy with

5 days of snowcover. I know I would. 

I went through the 45 day- 5 day chunks and it had accumalated snow showing from day 22.5 to day 45.The one shown on twitter is just a snapshot for a given 5 day period on a certain date and not the whole model output

[Shawn]

Yeah, I knew it was afternoon discussion! But I thought I would at least have a mention in my forecast?  But they will change their forecast 20 times by Thursday, not saying I expect Freezing Rain but they change every package. if I had snow every time it's been in my forecast this winter I would probably close to average!!! lol

 

FFC & even CAE are mentioning it.  Not forecasted, and the 18z GFS is like "what precip?"

 

 

Even the ensembles of the 18z's GFS are like "nah" except for 1 or two for moisture.  If this continues on the 00z NAM as a trend, oh well.