POWERSTROKE Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I was told today to keep eye on thurs night into fri better zr set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASU2014 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I was told today to keep eye on thurs night into fri better zr set up The last two runs of the GFS has my attention for Friday morning. May be on to something wintry if the trends continue for central and western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 What do temps and dps look like thurs night? I thought it looks to warm back to near normal by Thursday and Friday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I was told today to keep eye on thurs night into fri better zr set up since this will be a very cold air mass i we might at least have a chance. disappearing off the model runs for a while isnt all that unusual lol. good set up and VERY cold airmass this time. gps mentioned it in their afd as something to watch. one thing not at issue then should be ground and surface temps. everygthing should be frozen pretty solid i would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASU2014 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 After this cold snap we will be ready for a fews days warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 since this will be a very cold air mass i we might at least have a chance. disappearing off the model runs for a while isnt all that unusual lol. good set up and VERY cold airmass this time. gps mentioned it in their afd as something to watch. one thing not at issue then should be ground and surface temps. everygthing should be frozen pretty solid i would think Not a major storm but advisory could happen. Changing to all rain friday he said. Then brief warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Not a major storm but advisory could happen. Changing to all rain friday he said. Then brief warm up When does it not usually warm up to all rain in the se An ice storm with one of these juicy inch plus amounts would suck - probably no power for a week lol. Not to mention all the yard work it would cause Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 When does it not usually warm up to all rain in the se An ice storm with one of these juicy inch plus amounts would suck - probably no power for a week lol. Not to mention all the yard work it would cause But you'll be warm:) If you believe the long range, which I don't. This is the zrain window we get every year, and I wouldn't get complacent The ground will be cold, the sun will be in the sky, cad galore since the pattern change in March, juicy gulf...I was just watching the rain respond out of the gulf on radar. Zrain loves cold, cold cad. Especially for those in the catbird seat Enjoy your inch or two... it's coming down the line somewhere...been a long time.... like the last time the temps were in the 10s down here. The winter has already proven very anomalous, and compared to the last few years, it looks scary You never know when timing and serendipidy will reach up and slap you upside the head! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Nobody mentioned the 18z NAM. It came in colder leading up towards next Thursday/Friday. Looks like the high over Wisconsin is a little stronger and is able to keep the pattern more suppressed. I know this is the NAM but hay it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Both the GFS and Euro are starting to become in better agreement in the 11-15 day range, ridge on the west coast and trough trying to slide far enough east for us, similar to what we saw last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Euro ensembles look pretty nice in the long range...connecting the epo and pna ridge..warmup shouldn't last but 4-5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Tossing this out here without commentary. Just wondering .... Last 4 runs of the GFS - Pin the tail on the donkey? Anyone want to take a break and go bowling .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 The 18z GFS looks pretty chilly after about 240 hrs with even a hint of some blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Euro ensembles have been showing various looks at an east based nao and the 18z gefs h5 mean is showing it pretty prominently. There are also signs of potential for the pna ridge to connect to the epo ridge. 18z gefs mean is close to a more classic +pna/-ao/-nao (east based though). Up in my area we need similar setups to get frozen as folks south of the ma but the se needs it a bit more amplified. Imo- there is slow growing consensus towards a more amplified pattern in the east with some hints towards real blocking. Hopefully the trends continue. I'm slowly getting a little bullish for late next week. Fingers crossed that the rug doesn't get pulled or it ends up being a transient repeat of the December pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 How's the GFS 00z ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 How's the GFS 00z ?Obviously not good enough for anyone to comment on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Obviously not good enough for anyone to comment on it.Maybe everyone is too focused on the cold!? Just wondering about Thursdayish freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Maybe everyone is too focused on the cold!? Just wondering about Thursdayish freezing rain? How's the GFS 00z ? It shows a +PNA/cold returning in the 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 GFS shows enough cold air for Western Carolinas on Thursday, precip is too scattered. Model QPF is slim...FWIW our Day 7 system with great upper dynamics has slowly trending southward with tonight's run, freezing line into OH/KY border with surface low in Northeast GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 That timeframe from 168-180 IMO would look a lot more interesting if we had some kind of surface high in the Plains and Great Lakes Region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASU2014 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 0z EURO still on board for light freezing rain for much of northern North Carolina around hour 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Now that's somewhat encouraging. The NAO looks to go a little negative and maybe pull back to neutral, and the AO shows the same look, negative to neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Well the next week looks pretty bad in regard to our winter weather chances. Tonight and tomorrow look very, very cold, so....yay for us I guess. No, it'll be interesting to see the temp drop so much today through the day. However I'm hoping the GEFS has the right idea in the LR. It looks very "blocky" to me after day 10, along with a +PNA, central/eastern trough, and a split flow to boot. Really hoping it's catching on to a change in the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Well the next week looks pretty bad in regard to our winter weather chances. Tonight and tomorrow look very, very cold, so....yay for us I guess. No, it'll be interesting to see the temp drop so much today through the day. However I'm hoping the GEFS has the right idea in the LR. It looks very "blocky" to me after day 10, along with a +PNA, central/eastern trough, and a split flow to boot. Really hoping it's catching on to a change in the pattern. The OP GFS starting at around 240 through the end of the run looks very interesting. The PNA spike, if real, is something that we haven't seen to the degree modeled so far this year. If that comes to fruition, then we'll have a better shot at some interesting weather...especially if we can get any kind of blocking going. I'm encouraged that the modeling has been consistent with this idea for several cycles now and that, at least from what I've read, the Euro Ens have stepped toward the GFS Ens in this regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 The OP GFS starting at around 240 through the end of the run looks very interesting. The PNA spike, if real, is something that we haven't seen to the degree modeled so far this year. If that comes to fruition, then we'll have a better shot at some interesting weather...especially if we can get any kind of blocking going. I'm encouraged that the modeling has been consistent with this idea for several cycles now and that, at least from what I've read, the Euro Ens have stepped toward the GFS Ens in this regard. Yes, the PNA going positive has been there for a while, although I'm not so sure that's going to do us much good without blocking to keep the storm track south of us. It'll probably amp up a few great storms but I'm not sure I trust a good PNA by itself. I'm more hoping on the bit of -NAO that showing up. Maybe a really +++/tall PNA ridge may do the trick, but I haven't seen that yet. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Yes, the PNA going positive has been there for a while, although I'm not so sure that's going to do us much good without blocking to keep the storm track south of us. It'll probably amp up a few great storms but I'm not sure I trust a good PNA by itself. I'm more hoping on the bit of -NAO that showing up. Maybe a really +++/tall PNA ridge may do the trick, but I haven't seen that yet. We'll see. Yeah, it's positive now, but a tall ridge, located a bit more to the east would help. We've seen a lot of neutral and negative looks so far. Now, we're starting to see evidence of a more sustained positive look, which is well, a positive. If we can get some blocking and a little bit of a southern stream going, I like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 GSP discussion this AM didnt seem to gung ho on the freezing rain event on Thursday . They said precip would arrive after temps have warmed up for most of CWA. We just can't buy any kind of event around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 12z GFS long range has the first fantasy storm I have seen on there since early December...another arctic blast comes into the US Day 10, tall PNA ridge and southern energy that splashes into the Gulf by 288...the timing is perfect from Upstate SC and north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 12z GFS long range has the first fantasy storm I have seen on there since early December...another arctic blast comes into the US Day 10, tall PNA ridge and southern energy that splashes into the Gulf by 288...the timing is perfect from Upstate SC and north... Yep I'll take more of that look please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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