Shawn Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I don't think we've had too much of a true southern stream yet. We've had the northern stream drop plenty of energy in the SW and cut off and or a piece of it get left behind and then come out and of course cut to the north. Energy coming in through southern California and tracking along the Gulf coast and off the southeast has been nowhere to be found so far. We get that going, with all the cold highs we've seen, and we'll be in business. Yeah, that's correct. A good many rain storms here in the SE, but no true train effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I don't think we've had too much of a true southern stream yet. We've had the northern stream drop plenty of energy in the SW and cut off and or a piece of it get left behind and then come out and of course cut to the north. Energy coming in through southern California and tracking along the Gulf coast and off the southeast has been nowhere to be found so far. We get that going, with all the cold highs we've seen, and we'll be in business. Glad you and Franklin brought this up. There's a big difference in the 2 scenarios that you described, and I think that gets lost sometimes when there is return flow off the gulf providing precip. Holding cold high pressure to the north is important, but storm track is equally important. In non-El Nino winters, probably the best way to get a southern stream going with split flow would be with a big MJO pulse in the favorable phases (8-1-2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Yeah, that's correct. A good many rain storms here in the SE, but no true train effect. Maybe we'll get the train on the tracks before the winter's out. I think we will this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Glad you and Franklin brought this up. There's a big difference in the 2 scenarios that you described, and I think that gets lost sometimes when there is return flow off the gulf providing precip. Holding cold high pressure to the north is important, but storm track is equally important. In non-El Nino winters, probably the best way to get a southern stream going with split flow would be with a big MJO pulse in the favorable phases (8-1-2).You think the MJO gets going at all this year? It's been pretty dead so far. Some models have tried to bring it out in Phase 6/7...even Phase 8, but so far it's been pretty weak.Edit: We've seen SOI drops, but not sure that's amounted to much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Is this warm up people are forecasting starting Friday really going to be as long and pronounced as they say it is? It looks like the entire southeast outside the mountains is going to be 55-65F for a good week or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Is this warm up people are forecasting starting Friday really going to be as long and pronounced as they say it is? It looks like the entire southeast outside the mountains is going to be 55-65F for a good week or more. For us in KCAE especially, most likely if not just a bit warmer. We are in a not so good spot, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Is this warm up people are forecasting starting Friday really going to be as long and pronounced as they say it is? It looks like the entire southeast outside the mountains is going to be 55-65F for a good week or more. The real warm ups shown in the long range have not lasted as long as they were shown all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Is this warm up people are forecasting starting Friday really going to be as long and pronounced as they say it is? It looks like the entire southeast outside the mountains is going to be 55-65F for a good week or more.looks like 4 -5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Is this warm up people are forecasting starting Friday really going to be as long and pronounced as they say it is? It looks like the entire southeast outside the mountains is going to be 55-65F for a good week or more.Pssht we are going for 80 next weekend with thunderstorms. Next weekend looks wet. Yes it's far out there, but it has consistently been shown on the GFS and other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Glad you and Franklin brought this up. There's a big difference in the 2 scenarios that you described, and I think that gets lost sometimes when there is return flow off the gulf providing precip. Holding cold high pressure to the north is important, but storm track is equally important. In non-El Nino winters, probably the best way to get a southern stream going with split flow would be with a big MJO pulse in the favorable phases (8-1-2).yeah all the northern stream would be great if we had a very +pna. Its hard to get a vort to go south of you when it enters 40north with a positive nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 MetalMan, you know as well as I do we'll be looking at another outbreak, and potential frozen stuff, by the time this way deep cold gets scoured out, which will take a while I don't believe in no stinkin' torch, unless the models show it under 4 days Now, in Waygone, where the water goes down the drain the other way, it will be warm. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 You think the MJO gets going at all this year? It's been pretty dead so far. Some models have tried to bring it out in Phase 6/7...even Phase 8, but so far it's been pretty weak. Edit: We've seen SOI drops, but not sure that's amounted to much yet. Just going on what I read, the MJO is very complex. There is often mixed MJO and Kelvin Wave signals (and likely other stuff) that throws off the MJO model readings...but if you get a true MJO signal into the favorable phases, it can help. I don't see anything in the near term (from what I read) that indicates that the MJO will get going strong. As far as high latitude blocking, most of what I read seems to favor neutral to negative AO going into Feb/Mar. In the meantime, we wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 yeah all the northern stream would be great if we had a very +pna. Its hard to get a vort to go south of you when it enters 40north with a positive nao. Exactly. +PNA, split flow with true southern stream, and -NAO all important for keeping the storm track to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 For us in KCAE especially, most likely if not just a bit warmer. We are in a not so good spot, lol. No kidding. It has been an adjustment moving here from the northwest side of metro Atlanta. I'm going to buy a house in Lexington though, at least that area is 400-500' above sea level with the lake, not to mention about 3-5 degrees cooler than the heat bowl of Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 No kidding. It has been an adjustment moving here from the northwest side of metro Atlanta. I'm going to buy a house in Lexington though, at least that area is 400-500' above sea level with the lake, not to mention about 3-5 degrees cooler than the heat bowl of Columbia. I'd go with little mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 LR 00z GFS looks like a train wreck. Not sure I buy into that evolution. Doesn't look horrible just really weird for what you would think would be more of a zonal flow. Gets a little normal around hour 288. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Also repeats with a PV dropping into the US to bring another batch of cold air in. Not as cold as the one coming up but would make sense that we could get in a repeat pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 LR 00z GFS looks like a train wreck. Not sure I buy into that evolution. Doesn't look horrible just really weird for what you would think would be more of a zonal flow. Gets a little normal around hour 288. raging +NAO. early 90's nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 06z GFS much better. Keeps the cold hanging around... Torch cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The 06Z GFS brings back the potential of freezing rain this upcoming Thursday/Friday. Here's extracted data for KHKY (Hickory) from meteostar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Indices looking better today: * AO is still looking neutral overall because of big swings positive and negative * PNA is now looking like it will go positive * NAO is now looking like it will go negative at least in the next week or so. The LR would indicate it going back towards neutral but that's the LR and really anything can happen. So do I dare say that in 7 days or so we could have a positive PNA and a negative NAO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Regardless of what the models are showing, a big warm up after this cold snap would not be unusual. Many of the big cold snaps I can remember were preceded or followed by major warm ups. After the 1996 cold out break we got a period of much above normal temps for a few days. Not saying it is going to happen. Just saying that when the pattern is amplified you can get major warm just before or after major cold. This week is going to be major cold! I hope the mid January reload happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Hmmm... 12z is not far off from showing something for the SE. Has some energy really digging then moving eastward with a ULL associated with it. Starting to go neutral at 159. If it could hold it's act together and stay a bit more consolidated this might be worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 ULL ends up too far west and north...if Euro shows a similar solution though this could bare watching. It should be noted though outside of March 2009 almost every ULL has ended up too far north west for most in the SE to get much fun out of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 Hmmm... 12z is not far off from showing something for the SE. Has some energy really digging then moving eastward with a ULL associated with it. Starting to go neutral at 159. If it could hold it's act together and stay a bit more consolidated this might be worth watching. I hope it's better....the 6z took away all my sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Hmmm... 12z is not far off from showing something for the SE. Has some energy really digging then moving eastward with a ULL associated with it. Starting to go neutral at 159. If it could hold it's act together and stay a bit more consolidated this might be worth watching. A lot has to change there. 850mb temp is +12C. Freezing line is in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 A lot has to change there. 850mb temp is +12C. Freezing line is in Canada. Has a 540 line around itself which is an indicator at least early on the GFS is seeing some cooling going on. I know it's a long ways out I'm just assuming If it could strengthen it would be cold enough at it's core, say if it got to 3 contours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 A lot has to change there. 850mb temp is +12C. Freezing line is in Canada. Also after truncation the vort is strong enough that the GFS is showing 2m temps crashing in the mountains of TN/VA with a little bullseye of cold air. Probably on crack but it is there. I'm sure though this will be gone by the next run never to be shown again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Also after truncation the vort is strong enough that the GFS is showing 2m temps crashing in the mountains of TN/VA with a little bullseye of cold air. Probably on crack but it is there. I'm sure though this will be gone by the next run never to be shown again. Looks like a spring event that can allow some higher elevations to turn to snow. Definitely a huge change from the last run. This would give many a nice rain storm whereas the last run had nothing. Even has a CAD look that could temper the "torch". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Has a 540 line around itself which is an indicator at least early on the GFS is seeing some cooling going on. I know it's a long ways out I'm just assuming If it could strengthen it would be cold enough at it's core, say if it got to 3 contours? Never say never I suppose, but the Atlantic pattern over the next couple of weeks isn't going to be very favorable at keeping storms from heading west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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