Jon Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Euro has been the one that has hyped a couple of snow storms here already this winter while the GFS was more realistic and was the one saying no. I think GFS hyped one in the long range, but the Euro has done it a few times and it turned out wrong. GFS wasn't even seeing the cold long enough to get a winter storm. If that model was actually cold instead of popping a ridge on Jan 7th, we probably would have seen some fantasy storm materializing in the LR back around Christmas. It was more realistic because it was WRONG about the cold. You can't get fantasy snowstorms with a SE ridge in the LR. Have you noticed it's actually seeing cold in the LR now and giving us some snow chances in the LR mid-month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Maybe they have both been consistently wrong in the long range, just in different ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Talking about how many storms they have showed only to lose them. Used to be euro automatic under ten days. Not this yearThat was never true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12z Euro Ensemble Days 5-9: +EPO below normal heights in Alaska, western U.S. trough, above normal heights in the east, NAO neutral to positive Days 10-15: Ridging builds off the west and east coasts, central U.S. trough progresses into the eastern U.S, NAO neutral to positive PV located north of Hudson Bay Days 7-15 12z GFS Ensemble looks similar but it doesn't build as much of a western trough in days 5-9, and it brings the western ridging inland along the west coast late in the period (+PNA) Looking at 850mb temperature anomalies, days 5-9 are above normal, days 10-15 transitioning to normal, then below normal Only thing that stands out in terms of possible wintry precip from a pattern standpoint would be clipper type systems / northern stream divers if the ridges off the west and east coasts were to extend more poleward in the 10-15 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASU2014 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 JB sticking to his guns calling for the same pattern late next week location wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 JB sticking to his guns calling for the same pattern late next week location wise. Can you be a little more specific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Can you be a little more specific?Specifically, no snow for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Can you be a little more specific? JB not showing anything here anytime soon Did show middle to end of month getting cold again and possible storms in east and further south. Note possible is key word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Just as we warm up for next weekend we get to enjoy lots of rain again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Until you see a solid -NAO appear, no point in hoping for any significant winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Saw JB saturday summary today .By the way in case some don't know it's free on saturday on weatherbell.com.Any way he is saying -NAO and blocking after brief warmup. I for one am praying and ready for snow in SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I swear we haven t seen a -NAO in two years during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Saw JB saturday summary today .By the way in case some don't know it's free on saturday on weatherbell.com.Any way he is saying -NAO and blocking after brief warmup. I for one am praying and ready for snow in SE. You and my 10 snow plows are for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Talking about how many storms they have showed only to lose them. Used to be euro automatic under ten days. Not this year The models have been showing warm-ups and colder air this year and have not gotten it right. Now did they show a warm up in DEC sure but they showed a warm up all month and it came for a small 5 day period. Cold air is on its way the models latched onto this about a week ago , now it's on it's way , but we will see if its -10 or colder as modeled 10 days ago. Problem is the models are doing such extreme solutions that either way they can't be believed or trusted . This past year the models have been unreliable until 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The models have been showing warm-ups and colder air this year and have not gotten it right. Now did they show a warm up in DEC sure but they showed a warm up all month and it came for a small 5 day period. Cold air is on its way the models latched onto this about a week ago , now it's on it's way , but we will see if its -10 or colder as modeled 10 days ago. Problem is the models are doing such extreme solutions that either way they can't be believed or trusted . This past year the models have been unreliable until 3 days out. who believes the models Mr. 48? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Until you see a solid -NAO appear, no point in hoping for any significant winter weather.I want a southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I want a southern stream. Precipitation is not something we're lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Precipitation is not something we're lacking.I want to see energy enter the country in southern California, not British Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Oh the irony of this post. Now that's funny,I don't care who ya are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Precipitation is not something we're lacking. Neither is cold. We just can't get both at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 12z Euro Ensemble Days 5-9: +EPO below normal heights in Alaska, western U.S. trough, above normal heights in the east, NAO neutral to positive Days 10-15: Ridging builds off the west and east coasts, central U.S. trough progresses into the eastern U.S, NAO neutral to positive PV located north of Hudson Bay Days 7-15 12z GFS Ensemble looks similar but it doesn't build as much of a western trough in days 5-9, and it brings the western ridging inland along the west coast late in the period (+PNA) Looking at 850mb temperature anomalies, days 5-9 are above normal, days 10-15 transitioning to normal, then below normal Only thing that stands out in terms of possible wintry precip from a pattern standpoint would be clipper type systems / northern stream divers if the ridges off the west and east coasts were to extend more poleward in the 10-15 day period. It looks more and more likely this winter will be solidly a +NAO winter, which spells doom for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Not too optimistic either. Long term patterns are hard to break. I will say that in 92/93, I remember being frustrated that not much had happened and it seemed most of the action was just to our north. Then, we had "the storm". TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 We will get a good winter storm or two before this winter is out. Don't despair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Not too optimistic either. Long term patterns are hard to break. I will say that in 92/93, I remember being frustrated that not much had happened and it seemed most of the action was just to our north. Then, we had "the storm". TW If we could just have one big storm it would make up for everything else sucking this winter. Just like the two snows in late Jan 2000, with the second one being the Carolina Crusher. But we said the same thing the previous two winters. You would think with all the cold and precip we have had that they have to meet up sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 If we could just have one big storm it would make up for everything else sucking this winter. Just like the two snows in late Jan 2000, with the second one being the Carolina Crusher. But we said the same thing the previous two winters. You would think with all the cold and precip we have had that they have to meet up sometime. Without a consistent -NAO, we are stuck with timing to get a Winter storm. Depending on timing is like buying lottery tickets; More times than not, you lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Without a consistent -NAO, we are stuck with timing to get a Winter storm. Depending on timing is like buying lottery tickets; More times than not, you lose. It's why Franklin mentioned a southern stream earlier. Getting that going at some point will help very, very much by widening the timing window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 If we could just have one big storm it would make up for everything else sucking this winter. Just like the two snows in late Jan 2000, with the second one being the Carolina Crusher. But we said the same thing the previous two winters. You would think with all the cold and precip we have had that they have to meet up sometime. We missed out on the Carolina Crusher in Surry Co.but we had 3 other storms during the 2 week period in Jan 2000 so I was pleased with that. Does anyone kniw what happened to cause winter to start that Jan nd what caused it to end so quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 It's why Franklin mentioned a southern stream earlier. Getting that going at some point will help very, very much by widening the timing window. Well, we've had it. Just can't get cold when it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 It's why Franklin mentioned a southern stream earlier. Getting that going at some point will help very, very much by widening the timing window. Just hope by then that either the cold or the precip doesn't leave. The longer we wait, the less chances we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Well, we've had it. Just can't get cold when it matters. I don't think we've had too much of a true southern stream yet. We've had the northern stream drop plenty of energy in the SW and cut off and or a piece of it get left behind and then come out and of course cut to the north. Energy coming in through southern California and tracking along the Gulf coast and off the southeast has been nowhere to be found so far. We get that going, with all the cold highs we've seen, and we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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