Stormsfury Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 well not to get people too excited but dec 1972 featured some abnormally warm temps. Kchs current all time high in december occurred with an 83 reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It seems to have a very bad cold bias in a way of over doing CAD setups. Its like every time ya look it shows an icestorm for GA,SC,NC mountains. It's bound to be right one day, and as Larry will tell you we're getting into the wheelhouse. I think it's the latter part of mid Jan. With cads repeating every few weeks, just takes one low to meld with it, lol. I'd much prefer to see a split flow cut off spitting out waves of icy goodness into cold like this, but if we are working on an average winter, then cad ice seems most likely coming up. I need a Ga ice storm to thin the tree tops, but I dread it coming, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I think our chances of a big winter storm may have to wait until the end of January or even into the first part of February. The NAO is just not wanting to go negative right now. Some good news; there are some signs the PNA may go positive in the LR, but the NAO looks like at best to stay positive or neutral. The LR models seem to reflect this with no good patterns for southern storms. As Cold Rain stated it would seem unlikely that the NAO will stay positive all winter. My bet say February will be our month.Or just next year. There's nothing good about the broad pattern this year. It can get us cold, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 There's nothing good about the broad pattern this year. It can get us cold, but that's about it. Agree. After this cold shot, the GFS and Euro Ensemble more or less go right back into a +NAO look with generally below normal heights from Hudson Bay to Iceland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I've seen worse patterns, but the atlantic is not cooperating so far this year. We need to see some sustained blocking to develop over western greenland to slow down the pattern over the US. The flat jet screaming over the atlantic is killing any chances of suppression and/or broad scale phasing opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Somebody, quick, look at the Greenville 10 day forecast !!! It has a big ole snowflake and 60% chance for Monday !! Before they change it ! Don't know what they see, but it's nice to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I know there have been some really big Deep South snows in February like(73?) where Columbia and such received big snows. What was the winter like up to those points , if anyone can remember? Were there severe arctic outbreaks around this timeframe, a relaxation , then the big February snows? Just curious? I don't really remember about whether there were any arctic outbreaks during the winters with big February Snowstorms, but I do remember the February 1973 storm very well and if my memory serves me well, here in the Upstate of SC we got a big sleet storm about three weeks before that storm. We also got a big snowstorm in February of 1979 and it was also preceded two or three weeks by a big ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 As the Euro is rolling in, I notice the GFS is saying that our moderation of cold in Day's 7-10 could be a fairly brief one. Here's the look by Day 12-13, a nice PNA ridge that actually improves after that...combined with higher heights in Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 As the Euro is rolling in, I notice the GFS is saying that our moderation of cold in Day's 7-10 could be a fairly brief one. Here's the look by Day 12-13, a nice PNA ridge that actually improves after that...combined with higher heights in Greenland. Fwiw that's what JB has been saying for two weeks. Brief then cold coming back strong again. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 ^ Yep, the 0z GFS looks downright cold in the LR. From looking at eWall, it looks like it's about the coldest when compared to its ensembles. Many of those feature a western trough and SE ridge look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Fwiw that's what JB has been saying for two weeks. Brief then cold coming back strong again. We shall seeYep says the NAO going in the tank negative last third of Jan into Feb..hopefully the best is yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yep says the NAO going in the tank negative last third of Jan into Feb..hopefully the best is yet to come. We need the NAO; that's definitely apparent. No good chance of SE snow without it. Todays runs don't give any real hope. One word to describe them would be neutral. The NAO and PNA have most runs grouped close to neutral territory. The AO has dramatic differences of very positive and very negative. The NAO has been basically positive for the last couple of months. Lets hope it will change for the last half of winter. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12z NAM has a little more moisture with the arctic front across the foothills and piedmont. Still looks like a few flurries at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Fwiw that's what JB has been saying for two weeks. Brief then cold coming back strong again. We shall see Yeah, I have been reading his stuff recently...he says late next week moderation will be our "halftime". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 We need the NAO; that's definitely apparent. No good chance of SE snow without it. Todays runs don't give any real hope. One word to describe them would be neutral. The NAO and PNA have most runs grouped close to neutral territory. The AO has dramatic differences of very positive and very negative. The NAO has been basically positive for the last couple of months. Lets hope it will change for the last half of winter. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Yeah it'll look sporadic until we get closer to this low confidence period that is mid-month of Jan. We seem to be locked for a thaw but many runs are coming around to that changing by the 15th. The 06z GFS ensemble mean agrees with the OP with cold returning by the 15th with blocking over the top and a ridge out west, maybe not textbook +PNA but close and it is a mean. Agreement for a favorable pattern to return is a good thing to see this far out with how bad the models have been with the pattern in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yeah it'll look sporadic until we get closer to this low confidence period that is mid-month of Jan. We seem to be locked for a thaw but many runs are coming around to that changing by the 15th. The 06z GFS ensemble mean agrees with the OP with cold returning by the 15th with blocking over the top and a ridge out west, maybe not textbook +PNA but close and it is a mean. Agreement for a favorable pattern to return is a good thing to see this far out with how bad the models have been with the pattern in the LR. Yeah, what I can get from the model runs so far today, it looks like a relax and re-load type of LR pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12 GFS has the cold coming back at day 10; after that even shows some potential winter events. So maybe a four or five day thaw then back to the cold and hopefully a better pattern for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yeah it'll look sporadic until we get closer to this low confidence period that is mid-month of Jan. We seem to be locked for a thaw but many runs are coming around to that changing by the 15th. The 06z GFS ensemble mean agrees with the OP with cold returning by the 15th with blocking over the top and a ridge out west, maybe not textbook +PNA but close and it is a mean. Agreement for a favorable pattern to return is a good thing to see this far out with how bad the models have been with the pattern in the LR. The shorter range has a 1036 with moisture dithering about whether to come up into it, like MetalMan fussing over which model package to buy, lol. Looks like what the Canadian said, only nebulas yet. And, anyway, Ga has a wsw out for a period that was a torch a while back, and dry, so a 3 day at a time cautious approach seems appropriate. The coming cold is getting into range, and no sudden heat influx seems to be a fly in the ointment T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12 GFS has the cold coming back at day 10; after that even shows some potential winter events. So maybe a four or five day thaw then back to the cold and hopefully a better pattern for the SE.Until the Euro starts showing the same, I'm not going to be holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Euro hasn't been consistent at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Euro hasn't been consistent at allthe ensembles have been pretty good. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looks like the Euro has a neat bowling ball upper low in nw Mexico as the cold air says "Ireland is spectacular this time of year" and rents the SE out to maritime air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Euro hasn't been consistent at allNeither has the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Euro was first to latch on to this record cold coming up, iirc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 the ensembles have been pretty good. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I agree I'm just saying euro not king anymore. All models have been terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I agree I'm just saying euro not king anymore. All models have been terrible.Based on what, exactly? They seem to have done a good job showing the current cold pattern, and also showing that it wouldn't be good for southern snowstorms, and they are probably correctly latching onto the upcoming thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Euro has been the one that has hyped a couple of snow storms here already this winter while the GFS was more realistic and was the one saying no. I think GFS hyped one in the long range, but the Euro has done it a few times and it turned out wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Based on what, exactly? They seem to have done a good job showing the current cold pattern, and also showing that it wouldn't be good for southern snowstorms, and they are probably correctly latching onto the upcoming thaw. Talking about how many storms they have showed only to lose them. Used to be euro automatic under ten days. Not this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12 GFS has the cold coming back at day 10; after that even shows some potential winter events. So maybe a four or five day thaw then back to the cold and hopefully a better pattern for the SE. That has been the way it has been all winter. The cold or the warm ups haven't lasted but a few days. The whole pattern has been to be cold a couple days, warm up, rain, get cold again a few days, repeat, repeat, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 That has been the way it has been all winter. The cold or the warm ups haven't lasted but a few days. The whole pattern has been to be cold a couple days, warm up, rain, get cold again a few days, repeat, repeat, repeat. Oh the irony of this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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