Shawn Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 On a side note; I would like to welcome Stormsfury back! It's been a while since I've seen you posting much; hopefully you can post some more! No real system crossing Florida with cold in place to give us in the deep south a big snow yet. Feb is generally a better month for those from ATL - CAE - Macon - CHS/SAV/MYR to see good accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flotownsc Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 In everyone's opinion which model is the best at predicting weather or does each model have their own unique modeling feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXmaestro1 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 In everyone's opinion which model is the best at predicting weather or does each model have their own unique modeling feature. All models are bad beyond 5 days. Inside of that, the ECMWF is still the best but recent changes to it have definitely weakened its performance in certain situations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Wilkes obviously can't take a hint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 On a side note; I would like to welcome Stormsfury back! It's been a while since I've seen you posting much; hopefully you can post some more! Looks like some of SC could get in on a bit of a flurry action sometime Monday. Gfs has a wide band of backend snow coming through almost all of GA, and dying out as it crossing the upstate of SC into the midlands, then trying to get going again for a possible snow for areas of the coasts IF everything worked out correctly. Looks like nothing major here in SC, but a lot better than ice! 2M temps are a bit high though, and soundings need to be looked over especially for us in the KCAE region and Eastward. I'll take novelty flakes when we can get them though. No real system crossing Florida with cold in place to give us in the deep south a big snow yet. Feb is generally a better month for those from ATL - CAE - Macon - CHS/SAV/MYR to see good accumulations. Not gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 GFS in the LR is saying we will get above average temps with lots of rain and then in the very LR just boring weather. Looks very bleak for a wintery pattern setup for us in the LR, trough in the central US will give us a lows tracking to our west, same old same old. Hopefully this changes by end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Not gonna happen WIth this post, i decided to go look at the maps from College of Dupage instead of intantweathermaps. There is absolutely no moisture left as the critical thicknesses crash through here. Interesting how different these two sites look. I'll be sticking with College of Dupage maps for this now. (located here: http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ ) along with checking soundings before making such a post as before. For my friends in SC, yeah definitely looks like a no go for much of anything moisture wise at all monday..save 1 or two flurries in the far Upstate..at best. Sorry about that previous post. Edited my previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Although the models (GFS/EURO) may have struggled, to an extent, with individual systems such as this last one inside day 7 they have been OK/good with LR synoptic setup, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Is the Canadian model still touting an ice storm for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 In everyone's opinion which model is the best at predicting weather or does each model have their own unique modeling feature. Every model, including the JMA, GGEM, and NAVY models will score sometimes in certain situations. There is no way to really judge a model. You can look of previous performance and verification scores though for different time frames. GFS seems to be a bit too progressive, Euro is slow with energy in the Southwest, NAM goes bonkers at the end of it's run sometimes. The DGEX should only be looked at to figure out what won't happen most of the time. The JMA is an OK model for potential upcoming patterns, not storms as a whole. The GGEM has a severe cold bias (but it is a canadian model, lol). Generally the GGEM, Euro, and GFS are the most models used and blended together to make forecasts from what I've noticed over the years for days further out. Models like the RAP, SREF, NAM4M, NAM12KM are good for events within 3 days generally. But then again; even these short range models have their biases and what they are better at. Overall, the Ensembles of the GFS, Euro, and GGEM type models are what are used to make extended forecasts a lot of the time and those are the ones you should definitely learn to access and read. If you read the forecast discussions at the Weather Predicition Center (HPC), you will learn a lot about which models have been doing well and not. I believe the Euro still has the highest verification score though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Is the CMC still touting an ice storm for next week? Yes, hours 156-168 ice storm for NC and than it pounds the NE with another snowstorm. But it's the only model showing this, probably to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Is the Canadian model still touting an ice storm for next week? If precip type maps on the ggem are to be believed, there is a slop mess for most of GA around hr 144. It's light and goes away quickly though. Then it goes and does this in NC: Might be the cold bias as packbacker said though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Thanks guys. I was hoping that the energy would dig towards the gulf instead of heading due East across the middle of the country, but it doesn't look like that will happen. I guess I'll have to settle for another cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Thanks guys. I was hoping that the energy would dig towards the gulf instead of heading due East across the middle of the country, but it doesn't look like that will happen. I guess I'll have to settle for another cold rain. PV retreats, leaving nothing to keep the storm track suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Is the Canadian model still touting an ice storm for next week? Still has it but mainly a WNC I-40 storm and precip is light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flotownsc Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Just enjoy the weather that we do have, we are in a pattern where anything is possible. I remember Jan 2000 when there was no mention of winter weather and my location (Florence, SC) received 6" of snow. So everyone relax and enjoy these next couple of very Cold days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 On a side note; I would like to welcome Stormsfury back! It's been a while since I've seen you posting much; hopefully you can post some more! No real system crossing Florida with cold in place to give us in the deep south a big snow yet. Feb is generally a better month for those from ATL - CAE - Macon - CHS/SAV/MYR to see good accumulations. +1, and as Storm said the other day, or yesterday, the models can't key, and any shortwave might pop up and get is all I'm going to treat anything that falls Sun, or future slop, as the big cheese, as it might be all there is, but I'm thinking probably not. We've got some major cold, and that's been missing for 2 2/3's winters. And this winter ain't them. I called for an average winter, and an average winter gets real cold some, gets warm some, gets wet some, and gets some frozen In Ga. anyway, and I expect up there with you too. I just hope for both our sakes if the first shot is zrain, then the second is sleet for me and snow for you and Michelle Meanwhile, if I can't get sleet, then let me freeze my snockers off, and I'm getting that, big time. The only thing better than brutal cold, is sledding in it T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 +1, and as Storm said the other day, or yesterday, the models can't key, and any shortwave might pop up and get is all I'm going to treat anything that falls Sun, or future slop, as the big cheese, as it might be all there is, but I'm thinking probably not. We've got some major cold, and that's been missing for 2 2/3's winters. And this winter ain't them. I called for an average winter, and an average winter gets real cold some, gets warm some, gets wet some, and gets some frozen In Ga. anyway, and I expect up there with you too. I just hope for both our sakes if the first shot is zrain, then the second is sleet for me and snow for you and Michelle Meanwhile, if I can't get sleet, then let me freeze my snockers off, and I'm getting that, big time. The only thing better than brutal cold, is sledding in it T It will help us all out a lot to get a -NAO into the second half of Jan-end of Feb. I do believe a -NAO was showing up on last night's GFS runs to maybe aid in a little feeling of hope. As said in a previous post, the PV moving out makes all our storms just go North without the necessary block we direly need. I believe the snow we all saw in the deep south was an El Nino year in 2010 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 +1, and as Storm said the other day, or yesterday, the models can't key, and any shortwave might pop up and get is all I'm going to treat anything that falls Sun, or future slop, as the big cheese, as it might be all there is, but I'm thinking probably not. We've got some major cold, and that's been missing for 2 2/3's winters. And this winter ain't them. I called for an average winter, and an average winter gets real cold some, gets warm some, gets wet some, and gets some frozen In Ga. anyway, and I expect up there with you too. I just hope for both our sakes if the first shot is zrain, then the second is sleet for me and snow for you and Michelle Meanwhile, if I can't get sleet, then let me freeze my snockers off, and I'm getting that, big time. The only thing better than brutal cold, is sledding in it T lol - yep, the pop up ones are what i look for as well. its rare to get a big storm progged here days out that ends up verifying. and absolutely on the cold air. with out cold air all the moisture you can have doesnt matter for winter precip. the last two years show that, its been very wet. the two years prior, of course, is when we got spoiled. it was airmasses like this that are well below freezing coupled with the moisture. i say bring it on as most of us are ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 If precip type maps on the ggem are to be believed, there is a slop mess for most of GA around hr 144. It's light and goes away quickly though. Then it goes and does this in NC: Might be the cold bias as packbacker said though. This makes about the 10th time the canadian has forecasted frozen or freezing precip where i'm at. Number of times it's been right for my local? Zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This makes about the 10th time the canadian has forecasted frozen or freezing precip where i'm at. Number of times it's been right for my local? Zero. It seems to have a very bad cold bias in a way of over doing CAD setups. Its like every time ya look it shows an icestorm for GA,SC,NC mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I think our chances of a big winter storm may have to wait until the end of January or even into the first part of February. The NAO is just not wanting to go negative right now. Some good news; there are some signs the PNA may go positive in the LR, but the NAO looks like at best to stay positive or neutral. The LR models seem to reflect this with no good patterns for southern storms. As Cold Rain stated it would seem unlikely that the NAO will stay positive all winter. My bet say February will be our month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I know there have been some really big Deep South snows in February like(73?) where Columbia and such received big snows. What was the winter like up to those points , if anyone can remember? Were there severe arctic outbreaks around this timeframe, a relaxation , then the big February snows? Just curious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I know there have been some really big Deep South snows in February like(73?) where Columbia and such received big snows. What was the winter like up to those points , if anyone can remember? Were there severe arctic outbreaks around this timeframe, a relaxation , then the big February snows? Just curious? http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KGSP/2014/1/3/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar That will show a lot about past weather for GSP. Has the high and low temps, and precip amount for each day. Also has hourly data for any day you may be interested in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 +PNA ridge by mid Jan per the GFS runs today with possible -NAO blocking. Yep things may be just getting ready to get interesting! CIPS perhaps? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KGSP/2014/1/3/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar That will show a lot about past weather for GSP. Has the high and low temps, and precip amount for each day. Also has hourly data for any day you may be interested in. You can also throw in SPA, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 CIPS perhaps? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Nice. Just shows how much trouble the models are having in the LR, should get better after this arctic blast comes and goes! It's hard to believe after the cold we saw in Nov and now that we'd get stuck in some long period of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Period around 192-216hrs looks kinda interesting, a ways out, but not really much to grab ahold of at this point besides the cold next week and possible ZR for the 77 corridor on Thursday. 18z GFS top and 12z GGEM bottom, ~200hrs Right on que, the Euro has a cutoff hanging back over western MX / Baja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 ^ Inside 48 hours, we got a term for that. It's called Cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I know there have been some really big Deep South snows in February like(73?) where Columbia and such received big snows. What was the winter like up to those points , if anyone can remember? Were there severe arctic outbreaks around this timeframe, a relaxation , then the big February snows? Just curious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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