JoshM Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Glenn Burns ATL met: Our exclusive long range models show BRUTAL cold air Jan 15-20. Said no signs of warmth through the 20th!! And to think people were cliff-diving!! Wait a minute... if that is brutal, they're surely not suggesting colder than next week?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Glenn Burns ATL met: Our exclusive long range models show BRUTAL cold air Jan 15-20. Said no signs of warmth through the 20th!! And to think people were cliff-diving!! Exclusive long range models? What would that be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Exclusive long range models? What would that be?Probably some outdated WRF running on a Pentium II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Exclusive long range models? What would that be? Thought he had previously relied on GFS. But idk, he has been sticking with a cold JAN. Said expect opposite of what CPC says. Said on twitter he really hopes his model is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Possible Strat PV split with SSW event in the LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Possible Strat PV split with SSW event in the LR Joe Bastardi has been pointing that potential split out for about a week now. Interesting. Thanks for posting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Got a couple splits all the way up to 1 mb tonight,a full split. One at day 8,it reforms and gets split later in la la land around day 14.Vortex is under attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Glenn Burns ATL met: Our exclusive long range models show BRUTAL cold air Jan 15-20. Said no signs of warmth through the 20th!! And to think people were cliff-diving!! It could happen. No model has been able to sniff much out beyond a few days, and it does seem like we are getting colder looks beyond next week's cold snap. However, I would trust my dogs to predict the weather for Jan 15-20 before Glenn Burns. I wonder if these are the same models he uses in the summer to predict whose house gets a thunderstorm and who stays dry? Not picking on your post at all NGA. I have just listened to nonsense from him for 20 years now. I hope it verifies, but I would advise caution to anything Burns says that is not already common knowledge. If he reported it on the 11 pm news, I would guess it may be related to a 00Z computer model. Have not looked to see exactly how GFS looks, but saw on here where they may be colder than previous runs beyond next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Glenn Burns ATL met: Our exclusive long range models show BRUTAL cold air Jan 15-20. Said no signs of warmth through the 20th!! And to think people were cliff-diving!! omfg...Glen burns? lmao..trying to not go into a long, brutal, yet deserving off topic rant about that moron.....must...resist.....arrgghhh Just do yourself and everyone else a favor...ignore every syllable that comes out of his mouth. Your life will be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 omfg...Glen burns? lmao..trying to not go into a long, brutal, yet deserving off topic rant about that moron.....must...resist.....arrgghhh Just do yourself and everyone else a favor...ignore every syllable that comes out of his mouth. Your life will be better. Haha I take glen with a grain of salt. Last week said it was gonna be warm throughout Jan and the cold was overdone on models. I am more of a Mike Francis kinda guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Haha I take glen with a grain of salt. Last week said it was gonna be warm throughout Jan and the cold was overdone on models. I am more of a Mike Francis kinda guy. A quadruple post. Bet Glen has never done that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 A quadruple post. Bet Glen has never done that.. Brick has! Anybody gonna do pbp on euro for cold update and Thursday potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Apologies for quad post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 omfg...Glen burns? lmao..trying to not go into a long, brutal, yet deserving off topic rant about that moron.....must...resist.....arrgghhh Just do yourself and everyone else a favor...ignore every syllable that comes out of his mouth. Your life will be better. I wondered how long it would take to here from you on this. You're probably the one guy on here that "understands" Glen Burns as well as I do. I would go with Lee Corso's football picks on Saturday before I would buy anything Burns says. January may go into the ice box, but it will not be a result of any super secret computer model data that Burns has access to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 . Brick has! Anybody gonna do pbp on euro for cold update and Thursday potential? I'm looking at it right now...will post in the dedicated thread. Any precip info I will post on here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Tonight's Euro warmer and not as juiced day 6-7...going back to its southwest low bias the model is known for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Tonight's Euro warmer and not as juiced day 6-7...going back to its southwest low bias the model is known for. You beat me to it WRT to the bias shown. especially in this extremely progressive pattern particularly. It just doesn't teleconnect at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Major ice storm on the Canadian. Starts as snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Major ice storm on the Canadian. Starts as snow too. Could be a bad one for Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Maybe the bitter cold next week will bring in the winter storms. But I am betting on it warming up before the precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Possible Strat PV split with SSW event in the LR Please let that happen!! That's really our only hope for the winter I think, getting out of this groundhog day cycle. Connect that EPO ridge with the Atlantic, trapping the vortex underneath and we'll be ready to roll. The only unknown would be the southern stream.....if we can get storms to ride the gulf underneath. I really hate depending on that unicorn chase of a SSW though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Please let that happen!! That's really our only hope for the winter I think, getting out of this groundhog day cycle. Connect that EPO ridge with the Atlantic, trapping the vortex underneath and we'll be ready to roll. The only unknown would be the southern stream.....if we can get storms to ride the gulf underneath. I really hate depending on that unicorn chase of a SSW though... It wasn't too many days ago that people were talking about an active southern stream and the SOI dropping and so forth. I wonder what happened to that? Doesn't look active in the near future, just going off of the OP runs. The indexes look maybe a little better than yesterday. The AO looks to rise, followed by another decline. The NAO appears to stay mostly neutral/positive, and the PNA looks to rise pretty nicely later in the period. The MJO looks to be mostly in the COD or emerging out in Phase 7 at some point, depending on which model you believe. And according to the CFS, February looks colder in the east, although drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXmaestro Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 It wasn't too many days ago that people were talking about an active southern stream and the SOI dropping and so forth. I wonder what happened to that? Doesn't look active in the near future, just going off of the OP runs. The indexes look maybe a little better than yesterday. The AO looks to rise, followed by another decline. The NAO appears to stay mostly neutral/positive, and the PNA looks to rise pretty nicely later in the period. The MJO looks to be mostly in the COD or emerging out in Phase 7 at some point, depending on which model you believe. And according to the CFS, February looks colder in the east, although drier. In the foreseeable future - i.e. inside of 180 hours, we have nothing more than our transient Arctic cold shot followed by near-normal conditions. No signs of a true winter pattern setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 In the foreseeable future - i.e. inside of 180 hours, we have nothing more than our transient Arctic cold shot followed by near-normal conditions. No signs of a true winter pattern setting up. Near normal conditions sound like a true winter pattern for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 In the foreseeable future - i.e. inside of 180 hours, we have nothing more than our transient Arctic cold shot followed by near-normal conditions. No signs of a true winter pattern setting up.please describe "true winter pattern", thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXmaestro Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 please describe "true winter pattern", thanks. 50/50 low and blocking to our north to hold it in place and maintain confluence over the northeast funneling all of the cold Arctic air into the southeast that is to our north while simultaneously having a tall ridge over western CONUS that allows northern stream energy to dig southward and have a neutral tilt, while the cold air remains in place and not require a perfect timing situation like so many get caught up in looking at when one model run shows it. Should I continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 50/50 low and blocking to our north to hold it in place and maintain confluence over the northeast funneling all of the cold Arctic air into the southeast that is to our north while simultaneously having a tall ridge over western CONUS that allows northern stream energy to dig southward and have a neutral tilt, while the cold air remains in place and not require a perfect timing situation like so many get caught up in looking at when one model run shows it. Should I continue?That sounds ideal but not a true "typical" weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 50/50 low and blocking to our north to hold it in place and maintain confluence over the northeast funneling all of the cold Arctic air into the southeast that is to our north while simultaneously having a tall ridge over western CONUS that allows northern stream energy to dig southward and have a neutral tilt, while the cold air remains in place and not require a perfect timing situation like so many get caught up in looking at when one model run shows it. Should I continue? Yeah, that would be an awesome pattern. That's like a true winter dream pattern. Unfortunately, we don't get that type of pattern very much. We can make do with a "normal" pattern, but I prefer the one you mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 GFS in the LR is saying we will get above average temps with lots of rain and then in the very LR just boring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 In the foreseeable future - i.e. inside of 180 hours, we have nothing more than our transient Arctic cold shot followed by near-normal conditions. No signs of a true winter pattern setting up. Today it was 23 IMBY at 11 am. The next artic shot beginning Sunday night may keep me below freezing until Wednesday afternoon. Temps looking to go below 10 here for the first time since 2003. The highs in the 2003 cold snap were higher IMBY than what we will likely see. Tuesday may not hit 20. Wind chills will be brutal. This could be our coldest shot since 1996! Not your typical transient cold shot. Maybe someone should create an "If I can't get snow, I am going to scream and wet my pants" thread for everyone that does not realize that this is a true rare winter weather event we are about to experience. There appear to be some folks that don't care about the actual winter weather if they can't build snowmen and make snow angels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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