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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II


buckeyefan1

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Sorry Folks - I wasn't trying to forecast or even guess - just was pointing out an observation FWIW ....

 

Noone wants to hear about a warm up I take it...lol.  Yes, we've been saying all along that the cold is in and out...question is around how much it hangs on late next week as precip tries to move in from the west.

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Dang Jerry! You almost incited a riot here  :lmao:

 

The warden said "Come out with your hands up in the air

If you don't stop this riot, you're all gonna get the chair"

Scarface Don said, "It's too late to quit

So pass the dynamite, 'cause the fuse is lit"

The twenty seventh hour, the tear gas got them in

We're all back in our cells now, but every now and then

 

Riot Going On.mp3

 

 

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Ugh... 18z GFS jumps on the CMC train with ZR in WNC....not as bad as CMC but still there. 

I expect this to keep trending more and more to a icy look. This is some real cold air that is going to be in place. Even if the high moves out of a good position there will be very cold dry air in place to make even an in situ situation cold enough to keep freezing rain going longer than normally would be expected.  

 

I remember an event (early 80s) many year back where we didn't get freezing rain but got rain that froze. The ground temps were so cold that the rain froze to the surfaces(pavement) and caused a lot of problems.  

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Ugh... 18z GFS jumps on the CMC train with ZR in WNC....not as bad as CMC but still there.

like the euro even at 7 days out you can see pockets of sub freezing 850 temps showing up over the mtn. I expect this to trend colder as we get closer as the models can pick up on the density of the cold air. Also the dew points are incredibly low. This could be a nice snow to ice event. Think Philadelphia about a month ago.
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Freezing rain advisories likely this weekend according to the national weather service not just in VA but south into the Piedmont of North Carolina. WPC has freezing rain probs up for much of north-east GA into the Piedmont of NC.

 

All it takes is a glaze. Looks like a short duration event before warmer air takes over. Hopefully for the few wanting ice you take this and lets scrap any major icing in the long range. I have already had to deal with some ice in my backyard this winter.

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Is anyone thinking about any snow Sunday night outside the mountains? Our local guy keeps harping on moisture hanging back behind the front and a quick changeover to snow.? He showed a graphic with a low forming over TN as the front gets closer to the Carolina's . Thoughts? This normally never works out, but this is not your avg cold outbreak

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Is anyone thinking about any snow Sunday night outside the mountains? Our local guy keeps harping on moisture hanging back behind the front and a quick changeover to snow.? He showed a graphic with a low forming over TN as the front gets closer to the Carolina's . Thoughts? This normally never works out, but this is not your avg cold outbreak

NWS has had it in our forecast for a couple of days now. I'll be watching closely by the streetlight for the tokens!
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NWS has had it in our forecast for a couple of days now. I'll be watching closely by the streetlight for the tokens!

lol try looking tonight :) just took the dog out and felt something hit my face, looked up and we are getting some token flakes now lol.  with the wind shouldnt take long to blow it over your way :snowman:

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Cold warm up rain, cold warm up rain, cold warm up rain, That seems to be the pattern and Robert seems to think it stay's this way for a while. Only chance is freezing drizzle if moisture can return fast enough on back side of cold high as it is racing out to sea. :axe:  No way we will have a major winter storm without a -NAO to hold the HP in place.... We darn sure can't time nothing right.  I don't think? (JMO) :ee:

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Cold warm up rain, cold warm up rain, cold warm up rain, That seems to be the pattern and Robert seems to think it stay's this way for a while. Only chance is freezing drizzle if moisture can return fast enough on back side of cold high as it is racing out to sea. :axe:  No way we will have a major winter storm without a -NAO to hold the HP in place.... We darn sure can't time nothing right.  I don't think? (JMO) :ee:

Just read on wxsouth facebook that with time storm track will go south and east . I am so ready fo a snoesrorm .

Just foe kicks a read the old farmers almanac fir this winter. It says cold with aboce average snow. One thing of interest is it says most snow for SE late January ,early and late February. I'll take snow when we can get it.

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Man, the 18z GFS looked mighty nice at the end of the run with a big time -NAO/Greenland block! If that mess verifies, we'll be in business. It probably won't happen yet, but it is nice to see it show up as opposed to the run after run after run of ++++NAOs we keep seeing.

 

Yeah that's a solid -NAO signature. It's nice to see. Haven't seen it in the while.. even in LR model forecasts.

 

The AO has improved quite a bit since its very positive status through much of December. Just need to get the Greenland blocking in place and we'd be set. At least the pacific continues to help us out with the continued -EPO ridging.

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Really?? I gotta take mine out now!

lol - i have seen several reports of snow flakes in ga in the last hour or so.  i wasnt really expecting any - this rarely happens and the cold never makes it time.  it did tonight. hmmmm maybe this bodes well for the upcoming arctic blast ;)

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Just read on wxsouth facebook that with time storm track will go south and east . I am so ready fo a snoesrorm .

Just foe kicks a read the old farmers almanac fir this winter. It says cold with aboce average snow. One thing of interest is it says most snow for SE late January ,early and late February. I'll take snow when we can get it.

that would make sense this time (how often do us se posters get to say that) - if the arctic high is as strong, deep and cold as progged it should push the storm track way down

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Yeah that's a solid -NAO signature. It's nice to see. Haven't seen it in the while.. even in LR model forecasts.

The AO has improved quite a bit since its very positive status through much of December. Just need to get the Greenland blocking in place and we'd be set. At least the pacific continues to help us out with the continued -EPO ridging.

Yep. I have no idea whether or not the ensembles corroborate, and I haven't seen whether or not the Euro ens keep the EPO positive in the LR. I know yesterday, they did, but the GFS ens had it negative. I'd really like to have that stay predominately negative. I think the Atlantic will eventually come around.

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I have really bad feeling about what may be coming once our arctic air mass tries to move out. GFS again suggesting moisture quickly approaching by next Thursday. We have been living dangerously here in North Carolina on a couple occasions so far, asking for this air to quickly modify at the surface may be a tall order this time.

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I have really bad feeling about what may be coming once our arctic air mass tries to move out. GFS again suggesting moisture quickly approaching by next Thursday. We have been living dangerously here in North Carolina on a couple occasions so far, asking for this air to quickly modify at the surface may be a tall order this time.

 

Will thickness support anything other than ZR with the potential setup? Assuming we don't get much QPF we'll be ok, but totals always seem to amp up before the event.

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