griteater Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Sorry Folks - I wasn't trying to forecast or even guess - just was pointing out an observation FWIW .... Noone wants to hear about a warm up I take it...lol. Yes, we've been saying all along that the cold is in and out...question is around how much it hangs on late next week as precip tries to move in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Sorry Folks - I wasn't trying to forecast or even guess - just was pointing out an observation FWIW .... Dang Jerry! You almost incited a riot here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Dang Jerry! You almost incited a riot here The warden said "Come out with your hands up in the air If you don't stop this riot, you're all gonna get the chair" Scarface Don said, "It's too late to quit So pass the dynamite, 'cause the fuse is lit" The twenty seventh hour, the tear gas got them in We're all back in our cells now, but every now and then Riot Going On.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ugh... 18z GFS jumps on the CMC train with ZR in WNC....not as bad as CMC but still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ugh... 18z GFS jumps on the CMC train with ZR in WNC....not as bad as CMC but still there. I expect this to keep trending more and more to a icy look. This is some real cold air that is going to be in place. Even if the high moves out of a good position there will be very cold dry air in place to make even an in situ situation cold enough to keep freezing rain going longer than normally would be expected. I remember an event (early 80s) many year back where we didn't get freezing rain but got rain that froze. The ground temps were so cold that the rain froze to the surfaces(pavement) and caused a lot of problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ugh... 18z GFS jumps on the CMC train with ZR in WNC....not as bad as CMC but still there.like the euro even at 7 days out you can see pockets of sub freezing 850 temps showing up over the mtn. I expect this to trend colder as we get closer as the models can pick up on the density of the cold air. Also the dew points are incredibly low. This could be a nice snow to ice event. Think Philadelphia about a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ice is really no fun, especially if power is lost. I remember Atlanta January 7, 1973. I did not have power for 11 days...Not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropoFold Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Freezing rain advisories likely this weekend according to the national weather service not just in VA but south into the Piedmont of North Carolina. WPC has freezing rain probs up for much of north-east GA into the Piedmont of NC. All it takes is a glaze. Looks like a short duration event before warmer air takes over. Hopefully for the few wanting ice you take this and lets scrap any major icing in the long range. I have already had to deal with some ice in my backyard this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The GFS this run thinks the ice would come just in time for rush hour next Thursday. Oy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The GFS this run thinks the ice would come just in time for rush hour next Thursday. Oy. lol That's pretty precise for seven days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Is anyone thinking about any snow Sunday night outside the mountains? Our local guy keeps harping on moisture hanging back behind the front and a quick changeover to snow.? He showed a graphic with a low forming over TN as the front gets closer to the Carolina's . Thoughts? This normally never works out, but this is not your avg cold outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Is anyone thinking about any snow Sunday night outside the mountains? Our local guy keeps harping on moisture hanging back behind the front and a quick changeover to snow.? He showed a graphic with a low forming over TN as the front gets closer to the Carolina's . Thoughts? This normally never works out, but this is not your avg cold outbreakNWS has had it in our forecast for a couple of days now. I'll be watching closely by the streetlight for the tokens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I just can't see any snow on Sunday. The column dries out way too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 NWS has had it in our forecast for a couple of days now. I'll be watching closely by the streetlight for the tokens! lol try looking tonight just took the dog out and felt something hit my face, looked up and we are getting some token flakes now lol. with the wind shouldnt take long to blow it over your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Same here - snowing... well, Georgia snow, anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Cold warm up rain, cold warm up rain, cold warm up rain, That seems to be the pattern and Robert seems to think it stay's this way for a while. Only chance is freezing drizzle if moisture can return fast enough on back side of cold high as it is racing out to sea. No way we will have a major winter storm without a -NAO to hold the HP in place.... We darn sure can't time nothing right. I don't think? (JMO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 lol try looking tonight just took the dog out and felt something hit my face, looked up and we are getting some token flakes now lol. with the wind shouldnt take long to blow it over your way Really?? I gotta take mine out now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Man, the 18z GFS looked mighty nice at the end of the run with a big time -NAO/Greenland block! If that mess verifies, we'll be in business. It probably won't happen yet, but it is nice to see it show up as opposed to the run after run after run of ++++NAOs we keep seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Cold warm up rain, cold warm up rain, cold warm up rain, That seems to be the pattern and Robert seems to think it stay's this way for a while. Only chance is freezing drizzle if moisture can return fast enough on back side of cold high as it is racing out to sea. No way we will have a major winter storm without a -NAO to hold the HP in place.... We darn sure can't time nothing right. I don't think? (JMO) Just read on wxsouth facebook that with time storm track will go south and east . I am so ready fo a snoesrorm . Just foe kicks a read the old farmers almanac fir this winter. It says cold with aboce average snow. One thing of interest is it says most snow for SE late January ,early and late February. I'll take snow when we can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Man, the 18z GFS looked mighty nice at the end of the run with a big time -NAO/Greenland block! If that mess verifies, we'll be in business. It probably won't happen yet, but it is nice to see it show up as opposed to the run after run after run of ++++NAOs we keep seeing. Yeah that's a solid -NAO signature. It's nice to see. Haven't seen it in the while.. even in LR model forecasts. The AO has improved quite a bit since its very positive status through much of December. Just need to get the Greenland blocking in place and we'd be set. At least the pacific continues to help us out with the continued -EPO ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanillaDream Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 FFC has extended the WWA to include Metro ATL tonight... my porch is iced over as well as my sidewalk. Just had two rounds of heavy flurries as well. Forecasting up to a half inch of snow tonight...we'll see. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Really?? I gotta take mine out now! lol - i have seen several reports of snow flakes in ga in the last hour or so. i wasnt really expecting any - this rarely happens and the cold never makes it time. it did tonight. hmmmm maybe this bodes well for the upcoming arctic blast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Just read on wxsouth facebook that with time storm track will go south and east . I am so ready fo a snoesrorm . Just foe kicks a read the old farmers almanac fir this winter. It says cold with aboce average snow. One thing of interest is it says most snow for SE late January ,early and late February. I'll take snow when we can get it. that would make sense this time (how often do us se posters get to say that) - if the arctic high is as strong, deep and cold as progged it should push the storm track way down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Yeah that's a solid -NAO signature. It's nice to see. Haven't seen it in the while.. even in LR model forecasts. The AO has improved quite a bit since its very positive status through much of December. Just need to get the Greenland blocking in place and we'd be set. At least the pacific continues to help us out with the continued -EPO ridging. Yep. I have no idea whether or not the ensembles corroborate, and I haven't seen whether or not the Euro ens keep the EPO positive in the LR. I know yesterday, they did, but the GFS ens had it negative. I'd really like to have that stay predominately negative. I think the Atlantic will eventually come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Gfs ensembles rebuild the epo ridge pretty quick. Euro ensembles are joining the parry just a little slower. Still no help from the nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I have really bad feeling about what may be coming once our arctic air mass tries to move out. GFS again suggesting moisture quickly approaching by next Thursday. We have been living dangerously here in North Carolina on a couple occasions so far, asking for this air to quickly modify at the surface may be a tall order this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I have really bad feeling about what may be coming once our arctic air mass tries to move out. GFS again suggesting moisture quickly approaching by next Thursday. We have been living dangerously here in North Carolina on a couple occasions so far, asking for this air to quickly modify at the surface may be a tall order this time. Will thickness support anything other than ZR with the potential setup? Assuming we don't get much QPF we'll be ok, but totals always seem to amp up before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 +PNA ridge by mid Jan per the GFS runs today with possible -NAO blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 +PNA ridge by mid Jan per the GFS runs today with possible -NAO blocking. Yep things may be just getting ready to get interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Glenn Burns ATL met: Our exclusive long range models show BRUTAL cold air Jan 15-20. Said no signs of warmth through the 20th!! And to think people were cliff-diving!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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