Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

[BullCityWx]

Regardless, I will eat every piece of clothing that I have on if you can get snow with that sounding at KCEU: 
 

Date: 3.5 day AVN valid 0Z MON 6 JAN 14
Station: KCEU
Latitude: 34.67
Longitude: -82.89
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W
mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 1000 97
  970 347 6.3 6.0 98 0.3 6.1 233 7 281.9 282.9 280.7 298.5 6.03
2 950 520 7.1 6.9 98 0.2 7.0 233 17 284.4 285.5 282.4 302.6 6.56
3 900 964 6.1 5.9 99 0.1 6.0 242 29 287.8 288.9 283.8 306.1 6.49
4 850 1432 4.3 3.9 98 0.4 4.1 249 36 290.7 291.7 284.5 307.8 5.98
5 800 1924 2.5 1.8 95 0.7 2.1 248 41 293.8 294.7 285.2 309.6 5.44
6 750 2444 -0.1 -0.8 95 0.7 -0.4 242 46 296.5 297.3 285.5 310.7 4.80
7 700 2994 -3.0 -4.5 89 1.6 -3.7 239 53 299.2 299.9 285.7 310.9 3.90
8 650 3578 -5.6 -10.3 69 4.7 -7.4 234 62 302.6 303.1 285.7 310.9 2.68
9 600 4202 -8.6 -14.8 61 6.1 -10.6 231 69 306.1 306.5 286.2 312.6 2.03
10 550 4872 -12.9 -15.7 80 2.8 -13.8 230 73 308.8 309.1 287.2 315.4 2.05
11 500 5591 -18.1 -19.7 87 1.6 -18.5 231 74 311.0 311.3 287.5 316.3 1.61
12 450 6372 -21.8 -33.9 33 12.1 -23.8 233 78 315.8 315.9 287.9 317.6 0.48
13 400 7230 -27.6 -49.7 10 22.0 -29.5 234 84 319.1 319.1 288.6 319.5 0.10
14 350 8175 -34.5 -51.5 16 17.0 -35.6 233 90 322.2 322.3 289.5 322.6 0.09
15 300 9237 -41.5 -49.0 44 7.4 -42.0 233 98 326.8 326.9 291.0 327.4 0.15
16 250 10449 -50.4 -52.0 84 1.5 -50.5 231 111 331.1 331.1 292.2 331.6 0.13
17 200 11874 -58.1 -59.8 80 1.7 -58.2 239 111 340.7 340.8 294.6 341.0 0.06
18 150 13670 -61.7 -70.0 32 8.3 -61.8 242 99 363.8 363.8 299.4 363.9 0.02
19 100 16162 -64.4 -80.0 10 15.6 -64.6 241 89 403.2 403.2 305.6 403.3 0.01
TRP 0
WND 0

[weatherfide]

In my opinion, after looking at the 12z GFS, the rain and snow needs to be changed to just rain for Atlanta and proximity. 850's don't support snow until 09z on Monday morning. No 3 hr accum. precip is indicated after this time or depicted in the 3hrs prior. I know they are leaving a margin in case things change, but 90% of the time, cold chasing moisture, doesn't change rain to snow over Atlanta.

[Bsudweather]

In my opinion, after looking at the 12z GFS, the rain and snow needs to be changed to just rain for Atlanta and proximity. 850's don't support snow until 09z on Monday morning. No 3 hr accum. precip is indicated after this time or depicted in the 3hrs prior. I know they are leaving a margin in case things change, but 90% of the time, cold chasing moisture, doesn't change rain to snow over Atlanta.

If you are referring to what I posted, it's not for Atlanta that was for my area in the northern upstate of sc.

[Wow]

Jan 8-9 a little interesting here with a weak wave moving through the midwest.  Might want to keep an eye on it esp. with that lobe of energy over the N Plains. Wait and see if that southern wave trends stronger.

 

[GaWx]

Per 12Z gfs: some nice ZR for part of NC including Brick's abode 1/9.

[griteater]

Jan 8-9 a little interesting here with a weak wave moving through the midwest.  Might want to keep an eye on it esp. with that lobe of energy over the N Plains. Wait and see if that southern wave trends stronger.

 

Been keeping an eye on this.  The northern stream was better this run as it has that secondary shortwave moving through the Dakotas and Minnesota.  That reinforces the northern stream a bit and keeps the cold air from retreating as fast...and keeps the southern stream precip from cutting too much to the NW.  Cold air damming signature east of the mountains with surface high over the northeast.

 

The GFS Ensemble members have gone from showing no members with wintry precip to 15%-30% of members showing wintry precip across the upper south over the last few runs.  Overnight Euro also had some light wintry precip next Thurs with cold air damming

[packfan98]

Been keeping an eye on this.  The northern stream was better this run as it has that secondary shortwave moving through the Dakotas and Minnesota.  That reinforces the northern stream a bit and keeps the cold air from retreating as fast...and keeps the southern stream precip from cutting too much to the NW.  Cold air damming signature east of the mountains with surface high over the northeast.

 

The GFS Ensemble members have gone from showing no members with wintry precip to 15%-30% of members showing wintry precip across the upper south over the last few runs.  Overnight Euro also had some light wintry precip next Thurs with cold air damming

This run was totally different than the 06z run which had no cold air.  This run has a pretty good CAD setup.  There is also quite a bit of moisture hanging around the gulf.  If the energy digs enough, it might be Miller Time.

[burgertime]

Been keeping an eye on this.  The northern stream was better this run as it has that secondary shortwave moving through the Dakotas and Minnesota.  That reinforces the northern stream a bit and keeps the cold air from retreating as fast...and keeps the southern stream precip from cutting too much to the NW.  Cold air damming signature east of the mountains with surface high over the northeast.

 

The GFS Ensemble members have gone from showing no members with wintry precip to 15%-30% of members showing wintry precip across the upper south over the last few runs.  Overnight Euro also had some light wintry precip next Thurs with cold air damming

Right on cue the Canadian comes in with some ZR out at hour 180. 

[BullCityWx]

Right on cue the Canadian comes in with some ZR out at hour 180. 

 

boy, you want to talk about the perfect storm for ZR accumulation, you've got it on todays models.

[burgertime]

boy, you want to talk about the perfect storm for ZR accumulation, you've got it on todays models.

 

Probably drops around .75 of nothing but ZR with temps hovering just at or below 30 from the looks of it. 

[BullCityWx]

Probably drops around .75 of nothing but ZR with temps hovering just at or below 30 from the looks of it. 

 

and it would probably stick to everything, including pavement. ground is going to be frozen solid.

[Marion_NC_WX]

12z Euro joins the camp in regards to a week from now returning moisture over the cold pool that remains from our arctic blast. Given the extremity of the air that is coming, I would have to think a significant portion of North Carolina (West of Charlotte and along I-40 to GSO) and Upstate SC could end up with a nasty icing event...good thing this is Day 7, plenty of time for the Euro to trend warmer.  I just don't see this air moderating fast enough.

[Cheeznado]

12Z GFS 2M temps say low of 7, high 22 in ATL Tuesday. GFS MOS 11 and 30. Euro more like GFS MOS. If Hartsfield gets into the single numbers, would be the coldest since 2003. Then we would probably be close to ice on Thursday, but could just be another typical 33-34 and rain. I prefer the latter, I never root for ice storms.

CORRECTION for coldest since date. This is off the top of my head, someone please correct me if my memory is faulty...

[Suncat]

I'm staying focused on the cold air moving in on Monday/Tuesday of next week.  If the lows turn out as low as currently predicted, there will be some frozen water lines around here.  BTW, I noticed that quite a variety of  birds are hitting the bird feeder pretty hard today.

[Steven_1974]

12Z GFS 2M temps say low of 7, high 22 in ATL Tuesday. GFS MOS 11 and 30. Euro more like GFS MOS. If Hartsfield gets into the single numbers, would be the coldest since 2003. Then we would probably be close to ice on Thursday, but could just be another typical 33-34 and rain. I prefer the latter, I never root for ice storms.

CORRECTION for coldest since date. This is off the top of my head, someone please correct me if my memory is faulty...

 

Same here! Anything but ZR please.

[POWERSTROKE]

Same here! Anything but ZR please.

I will take it. Send it to me. I have been with out power for over a week before due to ice storm. I have generator ready

[pcbjr]

This is a graphic example (take it for what it's worth) of what I've noticed generally happens after a severe cold outbreak ---

 

 

Can't document right now, but if memory serves me correct the lower and mid-SE had no real cold after the outbreaks in 1983, 1985 and 1989.

[max100]

This is a graphic example (take it for what it's worth) of what I've noticed generally happens after a severe cold outbreak ---

 

814temp.new.gif

 

Can't document right now, but if memory serves me correct the lower and mid-SE had no real cold after the outbreaks in 1983, 1985 and 1989.

Ridiculous, I don't even look at those anymore.

[Hammer]

NWS just issued WWA for Pickens county and northward in N. Ga... the wind is definitely picking up here, not sure it will get below freezing here in Cherokee County, GA.

[calculus1]

This is a graphic example (take it for what it's worth) of what I've noticed generally happens after a severe cold outbreak ---

 

Can't document right now, but if memory serves me correct the lower and mid-SE had no real cold after the outbreaks in 1983, 1985 and 1989.

 

That kind of makes perfect sense, doesn't it?  I'm not sure how it could be any other way.  If we have been experiencing incredibly cold temperatures, then the law of averages would suggest that we would therefore see some warmer than normal temperatures afterwards.  We're not going to be wall-to-wall frigid from December 1 to February 28.

[burgertime]

That kind of makes perfect sense, doesn't it?  I'm not sure how it could be any other way.  If we have been experiencing incredibly cold temperatures, then the law of averages would suggest that we would therefore see some warmer than normal temperatures afterwards.  We're not going to be wall-to-wall frigid from December 1 to February 28.

 

Also I think it's easy to look at those and think "torch" as if it's gong to be 70 and way above normal. If it's 2 degrees above normal while not hindering major winter weather ( a well timed event) it would be correct. 

[pcbjr]

No, no no - not trying to be divisive here; just making an observation based on recollection that extreme cold has in some particular instances led to a warm follow up.

 

The website I use to display the months in question (Feb - April in '84, '86, and '90 - the months immediately following severe arctic outbreaks) is down so I can't provide hard data.

[burgertime]

No, no no - not trying to be divisive here; just making an observation based on recollection that extreme cold has in some particular instances led to a warm follow up.

 

The website I use to display the months in question (Feb - April in '83, '85. and '89) is down so I can't provide hard data.

 

It's the old rubber band analogy. When you pull a rubber band far enough it will shoot back the other direction in an extreme fashion. Happens all the time with weather....well most of the time anyways. 

[Jon]

This is a graphic example (take it for what it's worth) of what I've noticed generally happens after a severe cold outbreak ---

 

Can't document right now, but if memory serves me correct the lower and mid-SE had no real cold after the outbreaks in 1983, 1985 and 1989.

 

That kind of makes perfect sense, doesn't it?  I'm not sure how it could be any other way.  If we have been experiencing incredibly cold temperatures, then the law of averages would suggest that we would therefore see some warmer than normal temperatures afterwards.  We're not going to be wall-to-wall frigid from December 1 to February 28.

Right. It can only get warmer, either near normal or warmer than normal. Also it's important to remember that's a probability map based on only certain model runs and at low confidence, nothing else. I don't put much into those maps, it would be fun to look at what the 8-14 was saying for this arctic shot around Dec 28 or before.

[POWERSTROKE]

Still raining good here. Locals have 25 for low. Sounds like black ice in morning. A lot if water standing on roads

[CentralNC]

Agree.  Wind might mitigate it a little.  But I would bet on at least some black ice here in the piedmont.

Still raining good here. Locals have 25 for low. Sounds like black ice in morning. A lot if water standing on roads

[Stormsfury]

After the 1989 outbreak, winter defintely left the building for 1990 in the east. 1985, however remained extremely cold, albeit in different locales at different times. Not only having all time state record lows broken in the Carolinas, more state records fell in other parts of the country later that winter, including a near miss for all-time continental US record low of -69 in UT, Missing it by 1 degree. I don't remember how winter 1984 played out much.

[WSNC]

This is a graphic example (take it for what it's worth) of what I've noticed generally happens after a severe cold outbreak ---

 

Can't document right now, but if memory serves me correct the lower and mid-SE had no real cold after the outbreaks in 1983, 1985 and 1989.

They mention below average confidence (2 out of 5) in their forecast discussion.

[pcbjr]

Sorry Folks - I wasn't trying to forecast or even guess - just was pointing out an observation FWIW ....

[calculus1]

No, no no - not trying to be divisive here; just making an observation based on recollection that extreme cold has in some particular instances led to a warm follow up.

 

The website I use to display the months in question (Feb - April in '84, '86, and '90 - the months immediately following severe arctic outbreaks) is down so I can't provide hard data.

 

They mention below average confidence (2 out of 5) in their forecast discussion.

 

Sorry Folks - I wasn't trying to forecast or even guess - just was pointing out an observation FWIW ....

 

pcbjr, there's no need to apologize here.  You sparked a discussion, and that's what the board is for.

 

But, here's how I take that map above for MBY of Hickory, NC:  I am in the climatological zone of 40 F with a 50% chance of having above normal temperatures for days 8-14.  Combine that with below average confidence of 2 out of 5 from the CPC, and it doesn't seem like they have really any good idea what might happen. 

 

The CPC only has 40% confidence in their forecast that I have a 50% chance of being warmer than the normal for days 8-14?  That's a pretty low confidence interval, I would say.  And, by how much would I be warmer than normal?  It's a cool chart (well, literally it's a warm chart, but I digress), but it's only one of many tools.

 

There may be lots of historic evidence for extreme warmth to follow extreme cold, and Stormsfury alluded to that above (as well as a year when it didn't work out that way), but this chart alone does not make me worry about any significant warm up any time in the near future.  Bring on the cold!  Maybe I'll get a little precipitation to accompany it someday soon...