Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

[Brick Tamland]

Should someone make a separate thread for the 1/03 event? Kinda want to discuss pattern but I think the pattern posts will get lost in PBP posts.

 

I was thinking the same thing.

[Wow]

Euro squashes the southern wave and pops a weak midwest low along the polar front.  The weaker southern s/w was the clue.  It either needs to be in the perfect spot or trend stronger to allow the polar energy to dig in behind it.  Else, the polar wave is going to roll over it and do what the euro is depicting.

[Poimen]

Not good, although there might still be room for redevelopment off the SE coast.

 

[franklin NCwx]

Folds to a gfs like solution.

[packbacker]

Not good, although there might still be room for redevelopment off the SE coast.

Ouch...whichever model doesn't show SE snow is usually the model winner.

[burgertime]

This run of the Euro is paltry. Very light snow across NC @138 and it looks to end @144. Our low skips us, blows up and turns into a noreaster to slam the SNE. 

[superjames1992]

Boston, NYC, etc. get slammed.  Ugh.

[packbacker]

Destroys the NE, the rich get richer

[Brick Tamland]

Hopefully, this is just a hiccup on this run of the Euro. Either that or the previous runs were just fantasy. Hard to tell with the way the models have been so inconsistent.

[Poimen]

if there is good news it is that there is still time for this to change.

[WXinCanton]

Euro and GFS in the camp now. Odds of a Gulf low have gone down a little.  

[Brick Tamland]

if there is good news it is that there is still time for this to change.

 

Yeah, maybe it is good not to have a big storm showing a week out. Of course, it would be a lot easier to take if the previous Euro run just kep shoing up over and over again.

[POWERSTROKE]

FWIW I hope he is wrong but JB said euro to far south last night and big storm will be North not here.

[mackerel_sky]

Hopefully, this is just a hiccup on this run of the Euro. Either that or the previous runs were just fantasy. Hard to tell with the way the models have been so inconsistent.

I highly doubt both models have the hiccups! Really depressing

[Brandonjva]

Well let's see we had one euro suite line up with its ensumbles so the question is will this run follow or spaghetti ..

[Poimen]

One other caveat is that the shortwave in question will not be in the RAOB network until Monday, I think. So we could still have some swings in the guidance until then, I suppose. Still...it's hard to get one of these back once the signal switches that far north.

[NCCatawba]

NWS Greenvile

 

Monday night...the cold front will push east of the mountains by
midnight...then pivoting SW to NE across the foothills and
Piedmont. In the wake of the front...850 mb temperatures are forecast to range
from near zero east of I-85 to at least -5c across the mountains the cold air advection
on the NAM is much stronger...with -9 to -11c across the northern mountains by
12z Tuesday. The interesting portion of the forecast is the
potential development of a frontal wave across the coastal plain
during the late night hours. The GFS indicates that a decent region
of 500 mb q-vector convergence will move across the region around 6z
Tuesday. Short range models indicate that a surface low...NAM...or a
deep trough...GFS will develop east of County Warning Area during the late night
hours. A band of h850-700 frontogenesis may develop across the NC
foothills and Piedmont between 3-9z. Precipitation may develop
within the area of frontogenesis...resulting in quantitative precipitation forecast between 0.01 to
0.10. Based on the timing of cold air advection...the precipitation east of the mountains
should begin as rain but end as snow. This forecast package will
feature a band of light snow accums across portions of the NC
foothills and Piedmont...with some areas near a quarter of an inch
of snow.

[burgertime]

To play Weenie there is a kicker that shows up in the pac which you would think would push our low east. It doesn't though. I'm a little suspicious of that. 

[packbacker]

Euro and GFS in the camp now. Odds of a Gulf low have gone down a little.

Odds are way down, UK, GFS, GGEM and Euro all are somewhat close to each other. Once these storms are modeled north of you 5 days they never come back south. Good news is the models are showing ridging developing in the east and trough in west after next week, It could be Feb before we can sniff a pattern out that would suit us. I really thought we would see flakes next week, hopefully we will later on.

[mackerel_sky]

How far out were the models showing the storm up in the Ohio valley/ NE on the Xmas storm 2010 ? That's the only time I can remember recently of a trend south and or east, but I remember this happening, but don't recall how many days out?

[packbacker]

20" for Boston, 12" for NYC, snows for 24 hours.

[mackerel_sky]

Patterns tend to repeat, while we keep hoping for that magical pattern change

[POWERSTROKE]

Patterns tend to repeat, while we keep hoping for that magical pattern change

Robert said yesterday we are going into a repeating pattern and its only a matter of time before we get a storm for us

[Cold Rain]

How does the Euro look at the end of the run? Trough out west like everything else?

[superjames1992]

How does the Euro look at the end of the run? Trough out west like everything else?

 

Not too good.

 

 

 

 

I guess the ECMWF Ensembles should be out soon.

[jburns]

What a huge change in less than a day. The models giveth and the models taketh away.

 

Only for those who looketh to far ahead.

[packbacker]

Patterns tend to repeat, while we keep hoping for that magical pattern change

Agree, as much of a bummer we probably won't be hit, it's still cool to see a huge winter storm hit someone. Boston might be at winter climo for snowfall after this storm and they will have 10 more weeks of winter left. Pretty amazing streak they have been on with the hurricane winter storms, the record setting Feb this past winter, solid Nov/Dec this winter and now this, they can't go wrong, playing the hot hand.

[Cold Rain]

Not too good.

I guess the ECMWF Ensembles should be out soon.

Thanks. Yep, awful. If we don't reel this one in, we're out till the middle of Jan at least, barring an immediate turn-around in the models.

[Brick Tamland]

Only for those who looketh to far ahead.

6 days doesn't seem that far out. If it was then there would be no use in even coming here to discuss things. Euro just went from a big storm a few hours ago to nothing. Such a huge change in a short time. Just shows you how hard it is to get everything right here for snow.

[Cold Rain]

Agree, as much of a bummer we probably won't be hit, it's still cool to see a huge winter storm hit someone. Boston might be at winter climo for snowfall after this storm and they will have 10 more weeks of winter left. Pretty amazing streak they have been on with the hurricane winter storms, the record setting Feb this past winter, solid Nov/Dec this winter and now this, they can't go wrong, playing the hot hand.

Strongly disagree.