griteater Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Maybe looks warm for Central Florida. The 0 850 line is hovering over Jacksonville, Florida with a 1043 high over Charlottesville. Doesn't scream warm to me Yeah, I don't know where that came from. Wet bulb temps in Charlotte are in the teens at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 IMHO - big difference between 850 and 500 and surface. It looks like a SW flow to me. SW flow into the SE tends warm. If you want to educate me, please do, politely, please! Happy New Year. Big daddy, that's about as non a warm look as you can get. A 1040 high in WV, northerly winds at the surface, and near -10 850s doth not a cold day make. This is for the upper SE. Down in Gainsville, I don't know what the daily climate records are, but you have got to be below average with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm never afraid or ashamed to admit a mistake. It just looked to me like an upper air SW flow was developing and that would perhaps bring warmer temps, into GA, SC, and up the NC coast. This was not an IMBY comment; just was a thought. Pardon me ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 An airmass the likes that we are about to get (single digit/teens air temp, -10 to -20 dewpoints, high 1040's high pressure to our north)...don't exactly scour out immediately... The fact that the Euro tries to switch the 500mb flow immediately to southwest after the delivery of the coldest air could actually result in some warm air advection precip...infact the precip maps just past Day 8 shows light precip returns across the Southern Apps region, like QC mentioned a few posts ago...these maps prove that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm never afraid or ashamed to admit a mistake. It just looked to me like an upper air SW flow was developing and that would perhaps bring warmer temps, into GA, SC, and up the NC coast. This was not an IMBY comment; just was a thought. Pardon me ..... I think a SW flow is what we want over this monster cold high pressure for some wintry precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 IMHO - big difference between 850 and 500 and surface. It looks like a SW flow to me. SW flow into the SE tends warm. If you want to educate me, please do, politely, please! Happy New Year. It depends on what you are looking for. If it's just cold, then yeah, you want to see a northerly component to the wind flow in the lower and mid-levels. For winter storms, outside of strong northern stream diving systems, all good southern winter storms have some type of southerly component to the wind flow at the lower and mid levels, with cold NE flow at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think a SW flow is what we want over this monster cold high pressure for some wintry precip? Me too! Snow /sleet and Freezing rain a good bet, I think we may get lucky late next week with this kind of set up? just a hunch!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That is a lie. the euro maps clearly show areas of below zero minimums in the NC Mtns.You may want to go back and check your data sources. You may be looking at an older run or looking at dew points.I personally reviewed the work from our team and the 12z ECMWF has no sub zero F surface in NC this run 12z 01JAN14. I also reviewed Dr Maue's graphics on Weatherbell Premium and they also agree. His graphics are very detailed but should not be posted. The flow is too fast above our latitude. Have a blessed day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think a SW flow is what we want over this monster cold high pressure for some wintry precip? I can't disagree. Unfortunately this is not a conference call where voice inflections can be heard. I said warmer. I did not say warm or hot or torch. My point being, I think the Euro is suggesting a relaxation in the "cold". What that leads to for short term precip or longer term trends are my dual interests. Sorry for any confusion. I'm rooting for some winter precip (not here but up the Interstate a ways) as I have 5 days off coming up and and hoping for a journey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 An airmass the likes that we are about to get (single digit/teens air temp, -10 to -20 dewpoints, high 1040's high pressure to our north)...don't exactly scour out immediately... The fact that the Euro tries to switch the 500mb flow immediately to southwest after the delivery of the coldest air could actually result in some warm air advection precip...infact the precip maps just past Day 8 shows light precip returns across the Southern Apps region, like QC mentioned a few posts ago...these maps prove that. You realize it, but in case there's any confusion among the readers, that precip. east of TN is clearly very light and temp.'s are warming quickly in all layers of the atmosphere. About all that may do is give a few spots light freezing rain for a short time per this run verbatim. This is precip. accompanying warming on the backside and isn't coming in in tandem with the cold, especially like yesterday's 18Z GFS showed for part of the deep south. The Euro's general setup is not conducive imo to decent wintry precip. in the SE. The cold is too dominating, which is typical for Arctic air plunges. Subsequently, it warms rapidly on the backside of the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 wow, so the cold it too dominating BUT very easy to push out of the way.......does that really make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 23m Forecasting:saying it BEFORE IT HAPPENS,not explaining after. http://Weatherbell.com winter temp/snow preseason 4cast pic.twitter.com/IJH13iCsDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 wow, so the cold it too dominating BUT very easy to push out of the way.......does that really make sense Yes - no -NAO and no 50 - 50 block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Time to stop. I was going to say you are onto a zrain look, but Larry beat me to it Plenty of time for both the models to screw it up a dozen times over, lol. Meanwhile I'm in the 40's, have light rain, and haven't seen the sun in at least 5 days. The only thing better in my book would be colder, and sleet I guess I'm a simpleton, but I like it to look and feel like winter, even it there is nothing frozen around, and cloudy, coat weather suits me fine. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 i cant forecast the future i dont even try to in fact, that is the point, some here no matter what the models say will post too warm, too cold, too dry, or whatever anti possible snow claim they can make......imo that stuff is WISHcasting and not based on any models or logic....anybody making claims about a storm several days away such as too dry or too warm are indeed proclaiming they KNOW the future and again i do NOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 wow, so the cold it too dominating BUT very easy to push out of the way.......does that really make sense It's not about "pushing out of the way" - it's about a pattern that is too progressive with nothing slow the hyperactive flow. Everything is getting out of the way easily right now. Yes - no -NAO and no 50 - 50 block. These would certainly help to slow the transient shots of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 wow, so the cold it too dominating BUT very easy to push out of the way.......does that really make sense In Jan 1994 we had back to back arctic blasts fairly close together, but with strong warming and rain in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 In Jan 1994 we had back to back arctic blasts fairly close together, but with strong warming and rain in between Maybe that's what will happen again, because the Euro ensembles through d9-15 are an absolute torch on the eastern third of the country, below is the 10 day ensemble mean, but days 11-15 actually get worse if anything. The 0C 850 line is in Canada.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Big difference between the gfs ensembles and euro ensembles in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Weren't the Euro ensembles showing an east coast trough and blocking the other day? The models are just horrible this year outside of 5 days...if even that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Weren't the Euro ensembles showing an east coast trough and blocking the other day? The models are just horrible this year outside of 5 days...if even that far out. They really are man. In fact, have either the cold OR warm progs verified consistently? I suppose it depends on where you live. That CFC map showing above average temps has been really wrong for most of the season in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I am beginning to think a period of relaxation might be needed. Back in the day....January thaws were common. It seems we are stuck in the same rut of warm ups and rain, followed by colder and dry. A reset may bring a good pattern by the end of January when blocking is more common. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 They really are man. In fact, have either the cold OR warm progs verified consistently? I suppose it depends on where you live. That CFC map showing above average temps has been really wrong for most of the season in this area. I don't think so...at least usually not to the extreme we've seen in the progs. I didn't have any confidence in the blocking that was showing up the other day, and I don't have any confidence in a full blown extended torch now. A transient milder period, maybe. It's not going to be frigid for a long period without blocking. The Pacific won't allow us to torch, as long as the -EPO remains/returns. So variable is the best way to go, with the "thread the needle" option being the best chance for snow, as has been the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Big difference between the gfs ensembles and euro ensembles in the long range. Yeah we aren't going to see what's going to happen in the LR until this cold at least comes down into the US. The models were garbage even seeing this cold far out and had a ridge during this time period. Garbage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropoFold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Starting to worry when you can't buy any significant fantasy storm through hour 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We couldn't buy any cold air awhile back, so I wouldn't worry about no storms. Last weekend was suppose to be dry until 3 or 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Like it or not, the 18z GFS is coming in colder than the 12z GFS. Whatever the ex, folks, enjoy the wx. It is the only wx you get! So true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We couldn't buy any cold air awhile back, so I wouldn't worry about no storms. Last weekend was suppose to be dry until 3 or 4 days out. Exactly, mackerel_sky! That should have been a good lesson in living and dying by every model run. As said above by Jon, they have been "garbage"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I don't enjoy the ex!! Is there any storms on the 18z and how cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 While not 1985 cold... I still think the Euro might have been pretty close with those single digits outside the mountains into the NC Piedmont and upstate SC. With the dewpoints being advertised and calm winds I see no problems reaching single digits. I saw some negative teen dewpoint temps, ouch, where's the humidifier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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