burgertime Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 CMC has a high right around 20 for CLT next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Guessing that the Miller A threat is not on the 12Zs either and we probably warm in the LR, judging from the lack of posts on the matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS has temperatures supportive of wintry precip for a 3-4 day period next week. Never know, a weak wave could pop up in the southern stream and provide the goods. At least we will have a fighting chance with this air mass early next week...something we rarely have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Guessing that the Miller A threat is not on the 12Zs either and we probably warm in the LR, judging from the lack of posts on the matter. Its not showing on the 12z it was there on the 06z followed by another gulf low ..plenty of time as grit said the window is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 CMC has a high right around 20 for CLT next week Canadian has WSW flow developing by next Wed with light freezing precip breaking out in the ArkLaTex. Going to be a short window with the cold air on the retreat, but again, it's a very nice and sprawling cold air mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 With the exception of today (40's-low 50's) and Sunday (40's and rain), we are getting ready to enter an extended cold period that will be strong enough to where a lot of us may be looking forward to moderation come Day's 9 and 10... Just given the persistent tendency going all the way back to October, one has to believe at some point next week we will be looking at a southern stream system quickly pop up on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Canadian has WSW flow developing by next Wed with light freezing precip breaking out in the ArkLaTex. Going to be a short window with the cold air on the retreat, but again, it's a very nice and sprawling cold air mass GFS actually has the same look next Wed with 700mb RH building in the ArkLaTex underneath the cold air mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Upper air of the GFS vs Euro says the deep cold we're supposed to get next week is still undecided. The amount of energy associated with it and how it's handled, how strong the southern piece is and how far south it digs, where it phases with the energy assoc. w/ the PV and how far the PV drops can still change run to run. The GFS runs consistently spit out a run that misses the phase till later (see 06z vs 12z today) When this happens it's the difference between lows around 8 in Raleigh vs lows around 16. While not likely to see another extreme solution like 12/30 12z Euro, we could see something like a mix between that and the current Euro. Now it could be a fight between what we prefer, a weaker front with the possibility of some precip found somewhere on future runs or highs around 20 or below. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Upper air of the GFS vs Euro says the deep cold we're supposed to get next week is still undecided. The amount of energy associated with it and how it's handled, how strong the southern piece is and how far south it digs, where it phases with the energy assoc. w/ the PV and how far the PV drops can still change run to run. The GFS runs consistently spit out a run that misses the phase till later (see 06z vs 12z today) When this happens it's the difference between lows around 8 in Raleigh vs lows around 16. While not likely to see another extreme solution like 12/30 12z Euro, we could see something like a mix between that and the current Euro. Now it could be a fight between what we prefer, a weaker front with the possibility of some precip found somewhere on future runs or highs around 20 or below. Thoughts? Haven't the last 3 runs of the Euro been pretty consistent? If so, that might be good guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z GFS long range is no blowtorch, that's for sure...back to a more average January temp pattern past Day 10 which for the upper Southeast that can deliver winter weather without a ton of things having to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Did anybody notice the dew points on the 12z GFS? I saw a -15 for Charlotte. -15! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Did anybody notice the dew points on the 12z GFS? I saw a -15 for Charlotte. -15! Yeah, was looking at the graphs on the Met Generator and noticed the numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z GFS long range is no blowtorch, that's for sure...back to a more average January temp pattern past Day 10 which for the upper Southeast that can deliver winter weather without a ton of things having to occur. I noticed that, which is good for my January forecast. I am a little concerned that I may have went too cold for many locations; however, it will be hard to overcome the amount of cold that is moving into the eastern United States starting Friday. With the AO negative and the NAO and PNA going back and forward, it will cause very different model runs, because there is nothing really set there governing the pattern. I expect a warm up in the middle of January, but I believe the 0z run of the GFS may be too warm. While the GFS 12z may still be a little to warm, it does depend on where the storm track is during the center of the month. Something to watch moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Haven't the last 3 runs of the Euro been pretty consistent? If so, that might be good guidance. The last two runs have been close but the 00z on 12/31 is worlds apart. We'll see what the 12z looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z Euro doesn't look good once again for wintry precip. But is good if you like intense cold and dry. Through 150 is still more pointed than the flatter on bottom coming down on GFS. Would be better if trough were flatter/wider on bottom to allow better chance for good moisture to pool with more moist WSW 500 mb flow in tandem with high coming across while still quite cold to the north. Something that hurts Euro relative to GFS is that it has that strong wave/sfc low form near W TN ahead it Arctic high whereas GFS doesn't . This makes the following Arctic high more pointed. I'd like to see that wave weaken on future Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z GFS long range is no blowtorch, that's for sure...back to a more average January temp pattern past Day 10 which for the upper Southeast that can deliver winter weather without a ton of things having to occur. don't see how average temp pattern can deliver winter weather in the upper south. The upper souths average temps are similar to the Deep South. Raleigh and Atlanta for instance have fairly similar average temps in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 don't see how average temp pattern can deliver winter weather in the upper south. The upper souths average temps are similar to the Deep South. Raleigh and Atlanta for instance have fairly similar average temps in January. Climo suggests otherwise. Their average snowfall tells the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 don't see how average temp pattern can deliver winter weather in the upper south. The upper souths average temps are similar to the Deep South. Raleigh and Atlanta for instance have fairly similar average temps in January.The avg temps are at their lowest of the year! I think GSP avg high is right around 50 and avg lows around 30. Get precip in here withe the avg low and get a big honking snow with a temp of 32-35! That's how it's done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z Euro: same old same old. Due to its setup, cold and dry dominate. Will moisten up only on backside of Arctic high as it moves out. Not what you want to see if you want wintry precip. I'd like to see that leading shortwave over W TN weaken to how GFS is in advance of the cold to have better chance. Regardless, the two dry cold fans will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 12z ECMWF is gradually moving in line with the predominant winter pattern and the latest run today keeps the 0f Surface Temperature Minimums well north of North Carolina into to Ohio Valley with a sharp cut off to the 0f surface line in Northern KY, Southern OH and into West Virginia. Above the 0f surface line, the temperatures do continue to fall off dramatically as indicated by the swift delivery of fresh arctic air in the main flow above that line. No signs of snow for North Carolina other than the upslope snow for tomorrow for which we are under a Winter Storm Watch that was issued around 400am this morning for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Light snow across the GSP CWFA around day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 In the big picture, the GFS, Canadian, and Euro agree on the PV dropping and rotating across south central Canada, just north of the border, dragging down a sprawling arctic air mass. Precip approaches from the west as the cold air is retreating. Lot of time to track the model oscillations to see if any precip can streak in quicker with the cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 In the big picture, the GFS, Canadian, and Euro agree on the PV dropping and rotating across south central Canada, just north of the border, dragging down a sprawling arctic air mass. Precip approaches from the west as the cold air is retreating. Lot of time to track the model oscillations to see if any precip can streak in quicker with the cold air in place. Man, that's a recipe for a nasty glaze storm. Not the kind that shuts power off but the kind that paralyzes a city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Both the 12Z Euro and GFS show temps in WNC that are below freezing for an amount of time. The only trend right now is cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro suggests a week from now it is rather warm. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Maybe looks warm for Central Florida. The 0 850 line is hovering over Jacksonville, Florida with a 1043 high over Charlottesville. Doesn't scream warm to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 At that same time stamp (168) on the Euro, it is 7 degrees in my back yard and right at 0 in Asheville and below zero in Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Climo suggests otherwise. Their average snowfall tells the tale. Yeah, RDU's normal snowfall is something like 3.5 times that of ATL's. RDU's JAN is about 2.5 F colder than ATL. Their latitude is ~150 miles further north than ATL. That counts for a lot. Also, RDU can better take advantage of the Atlantic component being added to a GOM storm. Also, RDU can get snow from Atlantic storms unlike ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 IMHO - big difference between 850 and 500 and surface. It looks like a SW flow to me. SW flow into the SE tends warm. If you want to educate me, please do, politely, please! Happy New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 At that same time stamp (168) on the Euro, it is 7 degrees in my back yard and right at 0 in Asheville and below zero in Boone. Should be mowing my grass at about that time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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