Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

[DixieBlizzard]

Got it.

 

Was focused on the prior panel.

 

Thanks!

 

The freezing line seems to stop at the Welcome Center on I-75. 

 

Interestingly enough, that seems to happen in this part of the state too. lol.

[GaWx]

This setup does seem to smell of zrain, doesn't it?  Highs that are strong, but going to cads.  Rain hanging around close by.  Big blasts that go bust, or modify.  I've been in the low 40's for days, had some sprinkles last night.  Haven't seen the sun for more than a minute or two since early in the weekend.  Wouldn't surprise me at all to see something across the middle and to the south   Anyway, I promised Metalboy something frozen, might as well be zrain, lol.  Tony

 

 Another thing to keep in mind is that we now have neutral negative ENSO weeklies in 3.4. Looking back at the history of major ZR at ATL, neutral negative ENSO is the ENSO phase with the largest # of ZR's/% of years with them by a good margin. I estimate that that raises the chance for a major ZR at ATL to about twice the climo chance for all ENSO phases, combined. That means that the chance for a major one isn't far below 50% for the winter as a whole.

[pcbjr]

A perfect example of why we need a 50/50 low or a -NAO

 

[Brick Tamland]

See below

 

 

The stats are correct. Aside from 1 (maybe 2) big January snows since 2000, my biggest snows have occurred during the first two weeks of March. 

 

As to where winter seems to be going pattern wise, I see no reason to think it will be any different than it has been (as Snowniner also stated), which is still an improvement from my initial thoughts back in October.  In comparison to the last two winters, it has been light years better as temps go (although there seems to be a sharp line dividing the cold regions and the warm regions so far - many of us have been cold, while many have been warm).  The PAC is still driving this pattern, just not as abysmally as the last two years.  With that said, the NAO situation is definitely an amplified problem right now. 

 

 

Sure it can happen in March, but in central NC we have had more snow storms in December and January since 2000.

[Brick Tamland]

Yep, big time winter storm implied on the 18z GFS. Beautifully placed and adequately strong HP, super suppressed Gulf system with plenty of room for the standard northern adjustment, and all within truncation. Who wants to start the thread?

Edit: ninja'd by Larry!

 

I'll let someone else do it this time. I am tired of feeling like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football with Lucy.

[WeatherNC]

101 ---> number of posts I moved to banter going through what was 18 pages of Winter 13/14 disco part II.  Please attempt to keep this thread on topic, I was conservative in what moved, trying keep the flow going, with minimal but some OT to keep it lively.  When posting in the topic threads please try to keep the following things in mind as we head into the climo heart of winter:

• Quoting posts that contain images, take a moment to delete the image link, odds are it is on the same page, and it saves additional scrolling - page count (especially for ones on a mobile device)
• Report objectionable content immediately, just hit the report button, we will see it and take necessary action where appropriate
• While tempting, keep sidebars to a min, all it takes is one or two errant posts to throw the disco off by a couple pages, one OT heat pump post will lead to 5-7 coils put off smoke detector replies  
• Police our own, but do so with tact, meaning there is no need once one or two members identify the post, for the rest of the SE community to continually lay on the mustard

Stay cold my Friends, Happy New Year 

[sctvman]

Talking about temperature extremes, CHS differs depending on the winter. In 2012 the low for the year was 20 at the airport. We had no measurable snow, and no measurable snow this year. We had two readings of 18 in 2010. The coldest temp we've had since 2000 was 17 on 1/24/03.

 

There was one night this year where there were flurries flying in North Charleston, but that was it. There's winters where we struggle to get below freezing at all but a few days, and then in '09-'10, we had one stretch of 13 straight days of lows below 30.

 

Our average high at the airport is 58 at the lowest in mid January. It is a little lower downtown. It takes a very cold air mass for highs to get below 40 here. It's a struggle for the air mass to be strong enough to get very cold temps here.

[HWY316wx]

January thaw?

 

814temp.new.gif

 

Well... it depends on how you look at it...

 

A week from today we are slated to have the coldest temps all winter.  It can only get warmer from there right?  Is that the thaw?  Modeled temps after that do no "warm" at all.  So quite frankly I think the map is junk.

[WxJordan]

Here is my forecast for the month of January 2014. With no clear signs from the oscillations, it was a very difficult forecast. That is why all of the percentages are very similar if you notice. The temperatures have almost a completely equal chance of warmer or colder than average in January, and the same is true for precipitation. Overall, this is a very difficult forecast without any clear signs from the oscillations, and we are starting of very cold with below average temperatures. This does not make the forecast any better, but here is a stab at it.

 

 

 

But here is the forecast, which you can also find on my website: http://www.wxjordan.com/weather/discussions/252-january-2014-outlook

[Wow]

18z GFS quite a bit colder with the Jan 7 arctic outbreak...

 

10 am temps..

 

4 pm temps:

 

[GaWx]

0Z GFS not looking good for the 1/8-9 Miller A as of hour 180.

[Jon]

00z GFS new years eve gift comes in much colder for the 1/07 arctic blast, FWIW

 

Coldest run in a while as far as the GFS goes

 

2mT mins....

DC: 2.6

Raleigh: 9

Boone: -3.6

Atlanta: 12.1

[Wow]

0Z GFS not looking good for the 1/8-9 Miller A as of hour 180.

 

There's a nearly 1050mb high just north of us.  Not even close to having any hint of low pressure anywhere in the vicinity.

[pcbjr]

Well... it depends on how you look at it...

 

A week from today we are slated to have the coldest temps all winter.  It can only get warmer from there right?  Is that the thaw?  Modeled temps after that do no "warm" at all.  So quite frankly I think the map is junk.

 

 

See my reply to Jon -

 

There was and is a "?"

 

The key!

[BullCityWx]

GFS data extraction shows a high at KCLT next Wednesday of 24.

[GaWx]

0Z GFS ensemble mean in agreement with operational suggesting mainly dry over SE 1/8-9. The 18Z GFS GEFS mean was somewhat wetter.

[tnweathernut]

0Z GFS ensemble mean in agreement with operational suggesting mainly dry over SE 1/8-9. The 18Z GFS GEFS mean was somewhat wetter.

Larry,

Models are wobbling badly in the LR. 8 of 11 12z gfs individual members showed overrunning potential with plentiful moisture in the gulf during the time now shown bone dry.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[FLweather]

GFS data extraction shows a high at KCLT next Wednesday of 24.

 

That sounds more realistic than the teens by the euro. 

Still questionable below that to 20-23.

[GaWx]

Folks,

 0Z Euro continues with a dry look for that Arctic high next week. I'd rather have the GFS look (especially the 18Z GFS) with a wider and not as penetrating high, which would allow for a better shot at a Miller A and moisture to pool underneath. Bottom line as I see it: if you'd prefer a better chance at wintry precip. then hope that a big plunge of Arctic air and record cold does NOT come deeply down into the SE and that the high is round/wide and not penetrating like an arrow.

 

 

****Edit: The Euro is sending the high down to TX and then eastward/NE into the Ohio Valley. There almost never will be a SE winter storm with that setup. OTOH, the GFS sends the high SE and then E into the Ohio Valley. With that you have a chance since it isn't as dry.

 

**Edit #2 (1:42 AM):  This Arctic high is cooked. No wintry precip. of note with it. Quick warm up behind it. Not the setup wintry precip. lovers should want but is setup the two dry, cold fans will like. The best shot is when the cold and moisture sort of work together where neither totally dominates. With the Euro, the cold is so dominating and that won't work for wintry precip. since Arctic air is dry by nature. The good news is that the Euro hasn't been all that great and, therefore, can't be relied upon.

[Pilotwx]

Just hoping last weeks big storm

In Europe didn't shift our pattern to a dry cold one. Not looking for anything for a couple of weeks hopefully im totally wrong .

[CandymanColumbusGA]

Just thought I'd share these images from my webcast this morning. Both the GFS and Euro keep Columbus below freezing Tuesday afternoon.... BRR! The last time we were below freezing for a high in Columbus was February 4, 1996! I think we'll be a bit warmer than that, but we're still looking at the coldest weather we've seen since 2011 when the ice storm hit the southeast.

[packbacker]

Looking at days 11-15 we look warm, after next weeks brutal dry/cold I think we will all welcome it. Let's sit back and watch BOS get another blizzard.

[Tacoma]

Looking at days 11-15 we look warm, after next weeks brutal dry/cold I think we will all welcome it. Let's sit back and watch BOS get another blizzard.

go figure they get a huge storm at the blink of an eye and we can't get an inch or two.  timing sucks for us 99% of the time where as the northeast timing is great 99% of the time.  i know we're in the southeast but you would think we could get an inch or two where as the northeast looks to get over 8 or 10 inches with every storm. 

[burgertime]

Everyone pray 6z has something right. It has a Miller A'ish type storm that is very suppressed around 160-180. Pretty much exactly where we want to be that far out.

[POWERSTROKE]

Robert just posted about late next weeks possibility

[Cold Rain]

Everyone pray 6z has something right. It has a Miller A'ish type storm that is very suppressed around 160-180. Pretty much exactly where we want to be that far out.

Amen. Done!

[metalicwx366]

Everyone pray 6z has something right. It has a Miller A'ish type storm that is very suppressed around 160-180. Pretty much exactly where we want to be that far out.

It's had that for like 4 runs now.

[NEGa]

just getting up (happy new year!) and dont see much discussion about late tomorrow or the weekend, just the arctic blast that might not be coming after all?

 

looks like a good rain tomorrow, then rain chasing cold (maybe a flake or two) and windy and colder tomorrow night.  havent looked at much yet but also see gsp has a couple of mentions of frz rain/snow showers this weekend.

 

am i missing something here?

 

edited to add: yes its the end of the run, but  latest nam run has precip over n ga with temps at freezing

[a5ehren]

go figure they get a huge storm at the blink of an eye and we can't get an inch or two.  timing sucks for us 99% of the time where as the northeast timing is great 99% of the time.  i know we're in the southeast but you would think we could get an inch or two where as the northeast looks to get over 8 or 10 inches with every storm. 

It's almost like they're at 41+* latitude and everyone in here is below 35*.

 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

go figure they get a huge storm at the blink of an eye and we can't get an inch or two.  timing sucks for us 99% of the time where as the northeast timing is great 99% of the time.  i know we're in the southeast but you would think we could get an inch or two where as the northeast looks to get over 8 or 10 inches with every storm. 

 

It's called climo. That's what you can expect each and every year.